Rodgers reportedly disgruntled, does not want to return to the Packers

[Pkrjones]

Amen. For me personally, It actually raises the % chance in favor of his return for another season. The Packers don’t really have any financial benefit from paying him not to play. Really other than getting Jordan Love playing time there’s not much other argument that the Packers would purposely move on from #12 that I can see. Obviously I don’t know what goes on behind closed doors, but #12 didn’t play so badly that you’d think Love could outplay him.

I have no idea what their plan is for Love. They could trade him for another starting caliber player? Idk

Statistically, Brett Favre had one of his best seasons in 2007...yet management chose to make AR the starter seconds after Favre said he'd be retiring & after Brett renegged. Very similar situation now with the exception of AR not announcing his retirement, yet.

In 2007 Favre accounted for 10.8% of the cap. In 2023 AR will account for 14% of the cap. Financial reasons are a fantastic reason, IMHO, to pass the torch to Love.

 

[Firethorn1001]

In 2023 AR will account for 14% of the cap.

Possibly higher if he insists on coming back with certain players signed and those players are signed to facilitate his return.

 

[thequick12]

Amen. For me personally, It actually raises the % chance in favor of his return for another season. The Packers don’t really have any financial benefit from paying him not to play. Really other than getting Jordan Love playing time there’s not much other argument that the Packers would purposely move on from #12 that I can see. Obviously I don’t know what goes on behind closed doors, but #12 didn’t play so badly that you’d think Love could outplay him.

I have no idea what their plan is for Love. They could trade him for another starting caliber player? Idk

Love almost certainly would not outplay Rodgers in 2023...the only reason I could see to trade Rodgers would be if and only if Love demanded to start or be traded and the FO has the same kind of confidence they did in a young Rodgers, in Love.

Its seems they could get some nice draft capital or at least one starter if not a couple for Love this off season.

Both scenarios are rather enticing to me. Trade Love for lets say Tyler Lockett and one of the Seahawks 2nd round picks lets call it #51

Or

Trade Rodgers for a haul in line with what the Broncos gave up for Wilson.
3 starters, 2 firsts, 2 seconds ...something along the lines of 3 firsts and 2 seconds. Lets call it #5, #20, #37, #51 and the Seahawks 2024 1st Rounder

 

[OldSchool101]

Statistically, Brett Favre had one of his best seasons in 2007...yet management chose to make AR the starter seconds after Favre said he'd be retiring & after Brett renegged. Very similar situation now with the exception of AR not announcing his retirement, yet.

In 2007 Favre accounted for 10.8% of the cap. In 2023 AR will account for 14% of the cap. Financial reasons are a fantastic reason, IMHO, to pass the torch to Love.

I understand that in general terms. However we don’t just walk away from his money that’s due. From what I can see, Aaron is going to cost the Packers essentially starting QB Salary regardless (maybe not record breaking). I don’t think it’s very fiscally sound to do that.
I imagine they’ll pop a 5th year option on Love so he’s given assurances to be the starter 2024 is my guess. Here or somewhere as we are obviously not paying a backup $20M+

 

[Pkrjones]

I understand that in general terms. However we don’t just walk away from his money that’s due. From what I can see, Aaron is going to cost the Packers essentially starting QB Salary regardless (maybe not record breaking). I don’t think it’s very fiscally sound to do that.
I imagine they’ll pop a 5th year option on Love so he’s given assurances to be the starter 2024 is my guess. Here or somewhere as we are obviously not paying a backup $20M+

As Captain corrected me in another thread we take a '24 salary cap hit over $78mil with AR and per above we'd also have a cap hit over $20mil for Love. It's QB decision time...either GB moves forward with Love OR stay with AR for a couple more years (paying him $105mil for those years).
We've gone deep enough into this worm hole & I don't feel good about it. IMHO, time to start getting out of cap hell & embrace an AR-less future.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Love almost certainly would not outplay Rodgers in 2023...the only reason I could see to trade Rodgers would be if and only if Love demanded to start or be traded and the FO has the same kind of confidence they did in a young Rodgers, in Love.

Its seems they could get some nice draft capital or at least one starter if not a couple for Love this off season.

Both scenarios are rather enticing to me. Trade Love for lets say Tyler Lockett and one of the Seahawks 2nd round picks lets call it #51

Or

Trade Rodgers for a haul in line with what the Broncos gave up for Wilson.
3 starters, 2 firsts, 2 seconds ...something along the lines of 3 firsts and 2 seconds. Lets call it #5, #20, #37, #51 and the Seahawks 2024 1st Rounder

I really doubt that Love's trade value is more than a 3rd round pick. He has very little film for teams to assess and if he was good enough to garner Lockett and a 2nd rounder, I doubt the Packers would part with him. Also, with this being Love's final year on his rookie deal, it wouldn't be that smart for another team to invest too much in him, since he could walk at the end of the season. His 5th year is an option, but $20 M for a QB with 88 career passing attempts?

Sadly, I doubt Rodgers trade value is equal to what Denver shelled out for Wilson. Rodgers is 5 years older and has been contemplating retirement for 3 straight offseasons. They might get a 1st and a 2nd or just one 1st if it was top 10.

The Packers are in a bit of a pickle with both players and also wouldn't make a move until Rodgers decision is known.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I guess we shouldn't believe anything that Gute says either.

"We made a really big commitment to him last offseason, so I think as we did that it wasn't certainly for just this year," Gutekunst said.

It should be pretty obvious Gutekunst was talking about the Packers point of view. In no way does he suggest Rodgers promised them to play for two or three seasons at the time he signed the extension.

In 2007 Favre accounted for 10.8% of the cap. In 2023 AR will account for 14% of the cap. Financial reasons are a fantastic reason, IMHO, to pass the torch to Love.

Rodgers would account for close to 18% of the cap in 2023 if the Packers trade him though. That needs to be considered when suggesting to trade him as well.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

I continue 50/50 as well

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In no way does he suggest Rodgers promised them to play for two or three seasons at the time he signed the extension.

Nor did he suggest that Rodgers didn't say it. Do you have a quote by Rodgers of him saying that despite him signing an extension that runs through the 2026 season, it was a year to year decision for him? Remember, he isn't just contemplating retirement or playing for the Packers, he is also contemplating playing for another team.

 

[Mondio]

Do you need a QB who's nearing 40 to tell you, the next season isn't a given that he'll be playing? He's already played longer than most, including most of the greats.

 

[tynimiller]

Do you need a QB who's nearing 40 to tell you, the next season isn't a given that he'll be playing? He's already played longer than most, including most of the greats.

I think within all the moving parts GB and Rodgers and all unless choosing to ignore logic have known honestly 2021, 2022 and this upcoming season if he plays could be his last.

 

[tynimiller]

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[Pokerbrat2000]

I think within all the moving parts GB and Rodgers and all unless choosing to ignore logic have known honestly 2021, 2022 and this upcoming season if he plays could be his last.

Brady will be 46 in August and still talking like he will play in 2023. Rodgers has taken very good care of his body, unless he has a career ending injury he probably could play just as long as TB. However, given that he is going on offseason #3 in which he has contemplated retirement, his mindset might not get him there.

Hopefully, if the Packers put him on the trading block, they can point to TB and other teams will pay a lot more for Rodgers, if they think he will be around another 5 years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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Raiders would be my choice. Reunion with Davante and the Raiders have the 7th pick in the first round and the 38th in Round 2. Maybe they will throw Maxx Crosby in too.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

The Jets are another team that I think would have a lot of interest in A-Rod. They have a really good defense and seem to be a QB short of being a real contender. Their 1st rounder is #13, which probably keeps them out of the running to snag one of the coveted QB's, except by trading up to get one. That said, this is an organization that has been desperate to find a solid QB. They just seemed to waste the #2 pick in the 2021 draft on Zach Wilson. If nothing else, Rodgers playing for a few years, might actually be just who Wilson needs to learn from.

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[Schultz]

Love almost certainly would not outplay Rodgers in 2023...the only reason I could see to trade Rodgers would be if and only if Love demanded to start or be traded and the FO has the same kind of confidence they did in a young Rodgers, in Love.

Its seems they could get some nice draft capital or at least one starter if not a couple for Love this off season.

Both scenarios are rather enticing to me. Trade Love for lets say Tyler Lockett and one of the Seahawks 2nd round picks lets call it #51

Or

Trade Rodgers for a haul in line with what the Broncos gave up for Wilson.
3 starters, 2 firsts, 2 seconds ...something along the lines of 3 firsts and 2 seconds. Lets call it #5, #20, #37, #51 and the Seahawks 2024 1st Rounder

IMO you hold both Love and ARs current trade value way too high.

 

[AKCheese]

IMO you hold both Love and ARs current trade value way too high.

I agree. People saw what happened to Denver and Rodgers is waaaayyyyyyyy more of a head case than Wilson, not to mention older. If either NYJ or LV would part with this years first rounder for Rodgers I’d grab it in a heartbeat. I think NYJ second rounder is a more likely landing spot.

 

[Magooch]

Kind of figured it would be an AFC team if he does move, I had all but ruled out a trade within the NFC unless some team presented an absolutely outrageous offer-you-can't-refuse.

So if I had to "rank"...

1. Jets - They have a top 5 defense and spent the better part of the season in the top half of teams in total DVOA. Probably have the DROY in Sauce Gardner and have two OROY candidates too, with Wilson who is perhaps the favorite now and Breece Hall who was arguably the front-runner before his injury. They had Hackett interview for OC I believe too. They have assets they can move and can make the space to make it happen. Tough division to play in but the Patriots look a way off yet, Bills are going to start feeling some cap crunch, and Miami has some big question marks with Tua's future...

2. Raiders - The big selling point is getting Rodgers paired up again with Adams. Once Carr is gone they will have ample space to work with. I'm not particularly convinced by him, but I think McDaniels is still thought of as a good offensive coach. Rodgers of course lives out on the West Coast too. I would think they would immediately be second-favorites to win the division behind KC.

3. Titans - Rodgers is a big Vrabel fan. One of the best running backs in the league in Henry. Solid defense. We heard last season how Rodgers bought some land near Nashville to build a house there (Don't know if that's finished yet or what). A fairly open division where they would probably be expected to go toe-to-toe with the Jaguars for the crown.

4. Dolphins - Big question marks around Tua's health. I think their defense is pretty solid, McDaniel is one of the hottest names in the game today, and they have a great set of weapons on offense, you could make a case that Waddle+Hill would perhaps be the best WR pair Rodgers has had. But they don't have a first this year so that makes things a little trickier.

5. Patriots - I have seen this one thrown around but I just don't know that it seems super likely. They have the cap space but IMO while you could make a case that some of the above teams are "just a QB away" I don't know that that's the case with the Patriots, feels like they are a long way off still. And I have to wonder if Rodgers would rather avoid more Tom Brady comparisons - obviously a move to NE would only serve to invite more of those.

I don't see any other AFC teams as terribly likely at the moment.

Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Browns, and Broncos are all pretty much set at QB one way or another. The first 5 really like who they have and the last 2 are locked into their current guy (Wilson/Watson) for the near future even if they don't like them.

Colts and Texans feel way too far away from being competitive to be an option. Rodgers has made it clear he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild. You might put Pittsburgh in that grouping too. Obviously they're not as bad as those two but I don't think they're a particularly serious competitor either. But Rodgers does really like Mike Tomlin. I don't know how sold they are on Pickett.

I guess maybe the Ravens would be a dark horse option if they don't manage to get an agreement with Lamar.

All that said really feels to me like Jets are by far the favorites and the next 3-4 are the only teams I'd really expect to see a deal with at the moment, all the rest feel very unlikely.

 

[thequick12]

I really doubt that Love's trade value is more than a 3rd round pick. He has very little film for teams to assess and if he was good enough to garner Lockett and a 2nd rounder, I doubt the Packers would part with him. Also, with this being Love's final year on his rookie deal, it wouldn't be that smart for another team to invest too much in him, since he could walk at the end of the season. His 5th year is an option, but $20 M for a QB with 88 career passing attempts?

Sadly, I doubt Rodgers trade value is equal to what Denver shelled out for Wilson. Rodgers is 5 years older and has been contemplating retirement for 3 straight offseasons. They might get a 1st and a 2nd or just one 1st if it was top 10.

Minimum for Rodgers would be 2 firsts and 2 seconds. Or the Packers got fleeced...If Rodgers goes to a new team he's at least playing out his contract...and really who knows, I could very well see him signing another depending on how things go. The top 10 pick probably isnt in play. Had Rodgers had another MVP season in 2022 it would be

And as for Love, people still think there is a chance the Packers dont exercise his 5th year option? It would be bad buisness not to, no matter what you end up doing with him. It makes him more attractive in a trade scenario. As well as allows you to trade him in 2024 if you go that route. It also allows the Packers to sit him one more year, 2023, before seeing what they have in him in 2024 for 20 million if they choose to go that route. Which isnt very expensive for a starting qb.

I think Love is worth more than a 3rd and further more I dont think the Packers would trade him for less than a starter and anothe pick. A 2nd or a 3rd. He's a 24 year old with the skillset to excel in the NFL thats spent the last 3 years learning from a hall of famer

 

[OldSchool101]

As Captain corrected me in another thread we take a '24 salary cap hit over $78mil with AR and per above we'd also have a cap hit over $20mil for Love. It's QB decision time...either GB moves forward with Love OR stay with AR for a couple more years (paying him $105mil for those years).
We've gone deep enough into this worm hole & I don't feel good about it. IMHO, time to start getting out of cap hell & embrace an AR-less future.

Thank you. I was wondering about that $$ number.
I can see both sides. On a personal level I’m not a fan of how Rodgers handles things, so I fully understand your position.
On the flip side, I’m still pretty sure Aaron Rodgers gives us a better chance to Win now than all but a few QB’s leaguewide (Love isn’t one of them) Albeit at a financial cost. I’m not sold that Love plus ~$30m is going to turn the tide, especially while we’re in major debt for 1-2 seasons. That’s called rebuilding.

It’s a tough call, my heart says move on, my brain sais milk #12 and maybe get another 2-3 seasons of him playing.

This comes down to our personal position of how we divide the blame for a less than pedestrian 2022 season. As much as Rodgers season to season antics annoy, if we had given him a slightly better OL and a legit WR1 OR legit TE1 I believe we win 2-3 more games and make playoffs. I do think our Defense strategy needs addressing. We have too much talent to be middling there.

Give #12 either the top WR or TE using selection #15 in some capacity slight trade up/down. Then Give him a solid RT in FA and then hit Offense another time with #47 overall with an Offensive weapon and tool him. If I’m Gute I’d move up to 5-7 spots to get our O weapon fit in any round. If we happen to land a CD Lamb type player early and we get any rise out of Doubs or Watson, then add a player like Darnell Washington or Dalton Kincaid? Watch out

Then hit our Defense hard with mid 3rd, 4th and 5th round prospects and be assertive by moving up some if appropriate.

 

[longtimefan]

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Here is a good article on what kicking the can on players who may not be back, will most likely cost the Packers on the cap this season.

Voiding contracts will cost Packers $16.4 million of dead money on salary cap in 2023

 

[rmontro]

I’m still pretty sure Aaron Rodgers gives us a better chance to Win now than all but a few QB’s leaguewide (Love isn’t one of them) Albeit at a financial cost.

My preference would be for him to retire a Packer. That said, I will roll with whatever the team decides to do, because honestly I don't see us winning (the big one), neither with or without him in the next few years.

I read an article saying a trade would be considered outside of the NFC. That kind of reminds me of an argument I heard when the same was said about Favre: If you're so afraid of playing against him, why are you trading him?

 

[Mondio]

My preference is to have him play here as long as he’s at a high level, he is, and he wants to, I believe he does.

But if his desire to still play is strong enough amd doesn’t want to retire and we can’t add enough around him to make a serious run at it, the time to get out is now. Cap hits only go up after this year and his tradeability only goes down.

He can certainly still play but is our window closed? It’s certainly not as open as it has been the past 3 years and only getting smaller.

I think it’s being discussed because they’re covering all bases.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I read an article saying a trade would be considered outside of the NFC. That kind of reminds me of an argument I heard when the same was said about Favre: If you're so afraid of playing against him, why are you trading him?

I don't think it is just because they are necessarily afraid of facing a player that is traded, but also more of not wanting to possibly make a team better, that they may be competing against for a playoff spot. Doubly so in your own division.

The funny thing about either "fear", if you get the much better end of the trade deal, maybe it is better to trade within your conference or division, if in the long run it weakens them. Extreme example, if the Vikings offered 5 first round picks and Jefferson for Rodgers, the Packers would be crazy to not to make the deal