Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New media
New media comments
New resources
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
Members
Current visitors
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Red Zone, Long TD & Turnover Performance
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 852035"><p><strong>Through Week 10, 2019:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Red Zone</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Red Zone performance is measured from the opponent's 19 yard line on in; long TDs are 20+ yards.</p><p></p><p>The Packers TD scoring in the Red Zone is 68.6%, 3rd. ranked. TD scoring against the defense is 48.5%, 8th. ranked. That doesn't mean as much if the other teams is getting there more often than you. Fortunately, that is not the case.</p><p></p><p>The Packers offense has scored 24 TDs on 35 red zone trips. Opponents have scored TDs on 16 of 33 trips. Without breaking down every trip to account for any two-point conversion attempts, missed FGs, or 4th. down/out-of-time failures resulting in zero points (e.g., Williams and McCaffrey in this last game), the reasonable baseline for analysis is 7 points for each TD trip and 3 points for each failure, the typical result absent the outliers.</p><p></p><p>On that basis, Packer offesensive performance baselines at (24 x 7) + (11 x 3) = 201 points.</p><p></p><p>The opponents = (16 x 7) + (17 x 3) = 163 points.</p><p></p><p>The difference is 3.8 points per game. That is a lot, and goes a long way toward accounting for the 8-2 record. The Packers gross points for vs. points against is 4.5 per game.</p><p></p><p>The fact opponents got to the red zone two fewer times is likely a function of turnover differential which I'll get to in a bit. As posted in another thread today, 3rd. down performance would not account for it given the Packers defense is pretty average on that count.</p><p></p><p><strong>Long TDs</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Red zone performance is less of a factor in the win-loss column if your offense scores a lot more TDs on big plays from 20+ yards than your opponents, or vise versa.</p><p></p><p>The Packers have scored TDs on 20+ yard plays six times, all passes. Opponents have had 7 such plays, 1 run and 6 passes. That's a minor offset to the Packers Red Zone outperformance. It hinges on one additional outlier play.</p><p></p><p>It might be worth noting 5 of those 7 opponent long TDs were in the first five games, then two by the Chiefs, then none in the last two games. If the eye test says the defense has increased emphasis on stopping long plays, that at least shows up in the decreasing long TD count.</p><p></p><p><strong>Turnover Differential</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>No mystery here. The Packers are +9, 3rd. ranked, almost +1 per game. That is significant. It effectively goes to +8 with a blocked Scott punt given the lost field position. I don't recall the Packers blocking a punt or a high percentage FG. I could be wrong.</p><p></p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>When you look at yards for and against, then on down the line to 3rd. down performance, return game performance, or even defensive TDs scored, you end up with a mediocre picture, poor in some areas.</p><p></p><p>But it goes to show, if you outperform in the red zone and win the turnover game that goes a long way to winning on the scoreboard.</p><p></p><p>Is red zone performance and + turnover performance consistently repeatable? That's debateable and remains to be seen. We at least know Rodgers will limit INTs.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 852035"] [B]Through Week 10, 2019: Red Zone [/B] Red Zone performance is measured from the opponent's 19 yard line on in; long TDs are 20+ yards. The Packers TD scoring in the Red Zone is 68.6%, 3rd. ranked. TD scoring against the defense is 48.5%, 8th. ranked. That doesn't mean as much if the other teams is getting there more often than you. Fortunately, that is not the case. The Packers offense has scored 24 TDs on 35 red zone trips. Opponents have scored TDs on 16 of 33 trips. Without breaking down every trip to account for any two-point conversion attempts, missed FGs, or 4th. down/out-of-time failures resulting in zero points (e.g., Williams and McCaffrey in this last game), the reasonable baseline for analysis is 7 points for each TD trip and 3 points for each failure, the typical result absent the outliers. On that basis, Packer offesensive performance baselines at (24 x 7) + (11 x 3) = 201 points. The opponents = (16 x 7) + (17 x 3) = 163 points. The difference is 3.8 points per game. That is a lot, and goes a long way toward accounting for the 8-2 record. The Packers gross points for vs. points against is 4.5 per game. The fact opponents got to the red zone two fewer times is likely a function of turnover differential which I'll get to in a bit. As posted in another thread today, 3rd. down performance would not account for it given the Packers defense is pretty average on that count. [B]Long TDs [/B] Red zone performance is less of a factor in the win-loss column if your offense scores a lot more TDs on big plays from 20+ yards than your opponents, or vise versa. The Packers have scored TDs on 20+ yard plays six times, all passes. Opponents have had 7 such plays, 1 run and 6 passes. That's a minor offset to the Packers Red Zone outperformance. It hinges on one additional outlier play. It might be worth noting 5 of those 7 opponent long TDs were in the first five games, then two by the Chiefs, then none in the last two games. If the eye test says the defense has increased emphasis on stopping long plays, that at least shows up in the decreasing long TD count. [B]Turnover Differential [/B] No mystery here. The Packers are +9, 3rd. ranked, almost +1 per game. That is significant. It effectively goes to +8 with a blocked Scott punt given the lost field position. I don't recall the Packers blocking a punt or a high percentage FG. I could be wrong. [B]Conclusion [/B] When you look at yards for and against, then on down the line to 3rd. down performance, return game performance, or even defensive TDs scored, you end up with a mediocre picture, poor in some areas. But it goes to show, if you outperform in the red zone and win the turnover game that goes a long way to winning on the scoreboard. Is red zone performance and + turnover performance consistently repeatable? That's debateable and remains to be seen. We at least know Rodgers will limit INTs. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Members online
Curly Calhoun
PackerDNA
DABIGZ
tynimiller
Latest posts
How much time?
Latest: OldSchool101
A moment ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically
Latest: tynimiller
33 minutes ago
Draft Talk
Bucks 2024-25 Season Thread
Latest: Voyageur
59 minutes ago
Milwaukee Bucks Forum
New Proposed Kick-Off Rule
Latest: OldSchool101
Yesterday at 9:49 PM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
2023 round 3 pick #78: Tucker Kraft TE
Latest: Pokerbrat2000
Yesterday at 9:29 PM
Draft Talk
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Red Zone, Long TD & Turnover Performance
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top
