Playoff Shakeup

[Dantés]

Every season, the playoff picture churns a little bit.

From 2013 to 2014, five teams switched over (4 WC teams and 1 Division Winner).

From 2014 to 2015, four teams (2 WC and 2 DW).

From 2015 to 2016, six teams (0 WC and 6 DW).

From 2016 to 2017, seven teams (4 WC and 3 DW).

From 2017 to 2018, eight teams (4 WC and 4 DW).

So over the last five years, we've seen an average of six teams switching out per season. Wildcard teams are highly volatile, and division winners less so-- 70% of WC teams failed to make it back the following season, while 40% of division winners failed to make the playoffs the following year.

Here are last year's teams:

AFC:

1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Baltimore
5. Los Angeles (WC)
6. Indianapolis (WC)

NFC:

1. New Orleans
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle (WC)
6. Philadelphia (WC)

Some factors that often prove to be predictive in terms of progression and regression: scoring differential, turnover margin, one score game record, injury luck.

So given all of that, who's in and who's out? At a minimum, we should count on four spots switching out, and it could be more.

 

[DarkHelmet]

I think KC, New England, New Orleans and the Rams will all be back in the playoffs. All of them were good enough last year to make it even with a couple injuries to significant players. The other six are no better than 50/50 in my mind. Injuries, emerging players, declining players, coaching changes make it nearly impossible to predict.

 

[Dantés]

Here's a breakdown of relevant factors for our division:

Chicago Bears:

• 2018 Record: 12-4
• Record in One Score Games: 6-4
• Scoring Differential: +8.1 (3rd)
• Turnover Margin: +12 (3rd)
  • Giveaway: 24 (22nd)
  • Takeaway: 36 (1st)
• Adjusted Game Lost: 36.6 (3rd)
• Notable Additions:
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
  • Buster Skrine, CB
  • David Montgomery, RB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Bryce Callahan, CB
  • Jordan Howard, RB
• My Take: The 2018 Bears were no fluke, as demonstrated by their scoring differential and the fact that they weren't especially lucky in one score games (it's also notable that they didn't lose a game by more than one score). However, there are some chinks in the armor. They were lucky with health-- far luckier than the rest of the division. Outliers in takeaway numbers almost always regress to the mean. More broadly, elite defensive performances tend to regress to the mean. And to that point, their personnel changes on defense, while not major, were negative. Chicago could easily be back in the playoffs, but they are going to need progress from the offense to do it, as it's unlikely that the defense will repeat its 2018 level.

Minnesota Vikings:

• 2018 Record: 8-7-1
• Record in One Score Games: 3-2-1
• Scoring Differential: +1.2 (12th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 20 (16th)
  • Takeaway: 20 (16th)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 73.9 (12th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Josh Kline, OG
  • Shamar Stephen, iDL
  • Garrett Bradbury, OL
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Sheldon Richardson, iDL
  • Nick Easton, OL
  • Mike Remmers, OL
  • Andrew Sendejo, S
• My Take: The metrics are almost perfectly in line with what you'd expect from a 8-7-1 team. An average record is reflected in average results across the board. So it would seem that the Vikings were not secretly better or worse than their record in 2018. Furthermore, the personnel changes are relatively minor. There isn't much reason to believe that the Vikings will be a markedly different team in 2019. Hopes for Minnesota fans will need to be pinned on the changes on the offensive coaching staff.

Green Bay Packers:

• 2018 Record: 6-9-1
• Record in One Score Games: 2-6-1
• Scoring Differential: -1.5 (19th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 15 (2nd)
  • Takeaway: 15 (29th, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 92.7 (21st)
• Notable Additions:
  • Za'Darius Smith, ED
  • Preston Smith, ED
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Billy Turner, OL
  • Rashan Gary, ED
  • Darnell Savage, CB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Clay Matthews, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Randall Cobb, WR
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
• My Take: The Packers' scoring differential last year suggests that their record was a pretty accurate indicator of what type of team they were. However, fans have a number of reasons to reasonably hope for improvement. They had the worst luck in one score games, the worst injury luck (especially when you consider having to play with Rodgers hurt), and virtually tie with Detroit for the worst luck in takeaways. All of these areas carry a good probability of improving in 2019. Additionally, they made by far the biggest gains on the personnel side this offseason. Fans just need to hope that the new staff can get the offense clicking early enough in the season-- too long of an "install" period could mean that a surge in the second half is too little, too late.

Detroit Lions:

• 2018 Record: 6-10
• Record in One Score Games: 2-4
• Scoring Differential: -2.2 (21st)
• Turnover Margin: -5 (23rd)
  • Giveaway: 19 (11th)
  • Takeaway: 14 (31st, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 76.8 (15th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Trey Flowers, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Justin Coleman, CB
  • Danny Amendola, WR
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Ezekiel Ansah, ED
  • Nevin Lawson, CB
• My Take: The Lions, like the rest of the division, don't have any glaring metrics that suggest they were markedly better or worse than their record last season. But they do carry some indicators similar to the Packers suggesting that there are reasons for hope. They were not very lucky in one score games (though it does bear pointing out that their winning % overall and in one score games was almost identical). But their takeways ought to improve. And while I don't think they added nearly as much as the Packers did, personnel wise, they made positive gains in that area as well.

Bottom Line: I think any one of the teams in the division could make the playoffs, and a division title would not surprise me from the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Ultimately, I think the metrics suggest that the Packers will make the most forward progress and the Bears will feel the strongest pull towards regression. For that reason, I think the division will ultimately be fought over by those two teams in the end, but it will likely be tightly packed through most of the season.

 

[gbgary]

Here are last year's teams:

AFC:

1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Baltimore
5. Los Angeles (WC)
6. Indianapolis (WC)

NFC:

1. New Orleans
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle (WC)
6. Philadelphia (WC)

barring the catastrophic QB injury i think the nfc teams stay the same but bal and the maybe lac are replaced in the afc with cle and...den perhaps.

 

[Dantés]

barring the catastrophic QB injury i think the nfc teams stay the same but bal and the maybe lac are replaced in the afc with cle and...den perhaps.

The entire NFC remaining the same will not happen.

 

[gbgary]

The entire NFC remaining the same will not happen.

that's why i said barring the catastrophic QB injury. if any of those teams lost their QB for several games that would end their season...which has a greater than zero chance of happening.

 

[PackAttack12]

that's why i said barring the catastrophic QB injury. if any of those teams lost their QB for several games that would end their season...which has a greater than zero chance of happening.

Doesn't matter if all quarterbacks stay healthy. The NFC will not have the same 6 teams in the playoffs this season. Bookmark that.

 

[PackAttack12]

The only three teams I have full confidence in making the playoffs as of the present is New England, Kansas City, and New Orleans.

 

[Dantés]

that's why i said barring the catastrophic QB injury. if any of those teams lost their QB for several games that would end their season...which has a greater than zero chance of happening.

Even if every QB plays 100% of the snaps, a pure repeat will not happen.

 

[Dantés]

The only three teams I have full confidence in making the playoffs as of the present is New England, Kansas City, and New Orleans.

I have a lot of confidence in the Colts and Eagles.

The Saints have a great shot, but that's a crazy division-- it has flipped a lot.

 

[Mondio]

unfortunately we'll be a year late on the Saints going 0-16. The football gods are going to smite the **** out of them for their incessant whining and law suits over a bad call and changing the game I love.

 

[PackAttack12]

I have a lot of confidence in the Colts and Eagles.

The Saints have a great shot, but that's a crazy division-- it has flipped a lot.

The only reason I'm hesitant on the Colts and Eagles is due to uncertainties with the health of their quarterbacks. If healthy though, the Colts will most certainly win the AFCS and the Eagles will at worst be a wild card selection.

I have no reason to question whether or not Brady, Mahomes, and Brees will stay healthy. The real question is whether or not Brady and/or Brees regress.

 

[PackAttack12]

I'll take an early stab:

AFC:

Patriots
Chiefs
Browns
Colts
Texans
Steelers

NFC:

Saints
Eagles
Packers (admitted homer pick)
Seahawks
Rams
Falcons

4 team turnover.

 

[Do7]

The only three teams I have full confidence in making the playoffs as of the present is New England, Kansas City, and New Orleans.

Idk why people are so big on New Orleans, especially how they fizzled out during the last portion of the season. I don't see where they've improved. If anything I think they're weaker than they were last year.

We're entering the playoffs this year. Book it!

 

[Do7]

I'll take an early stab:

AFC:

Patriots
Chiefs
Browns
Colts
Texans
Steelers

NFC:

Saints
Eagles
Packers (admitted homer pick)
Seahawks
Rams
Falcons

4 team turnover.

I don't see The Saints making it this year for some reason. There best shot was last year. The team I want the most is Seattle. Idk why but we have an axe to grind with those feather brains. And for some reason I have no reason to dislike him, but I don't like RW.

Having said that apart of me would LIKE to take on Atlanta again but only if we're at Lambeau.

 

[elcid]

NFC:
Rams
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Panthers
Bears

AFC:
Patriots
Browns
Texans
Chiefs
Chargers
Colts

 

[Dantés]

Ok, I'll take my shot:

NFC:

1. Eagles
2. Rams
3. Falcons
4. Packers
5. Saints
6. Panthers

AFC:

1. Colts
2. Patriots
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Ravens
6. Bills

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Idk why people are so big on New Orleans, especially how they fizzled out during the last portion of the season. I don't see where they've improved. If anything I think they're weaker than they were last year.

After week 1 the Saints only lost a single game before the NFCCG aside of the meaningless regular season finale.

In my opinion they definitely feature one of the best rosters in the league as long as Brees doesn't significantly regress.

 

[elcid]

Ok, I'll take my shot:

NFC:

1. Eagles
2. Rams
3. Falcons
4. Packers
5. Saints
6. Panthers

AFC:

1. Colts
2. Patriots
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Ravens
6. Bills

Come on @Dantés , not hopping on the Cleveland Bandwagon?

I like how you are predicting that both NFC wild card spots will (like 2 seasons ago) will be filled by 2 NFC south teams. To me it seems unlikely, but it is also so hard to give any of those 3 teams a significant edge over the other 2.

Green Bay Packers:

• 2018 Record: 6-9-1
• Record in One Score Games: 2-6-1
• Scoring Differential: -1.5 (19th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 15 (2nd)
  • Takeaway: 15 (29th, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 92.7 (21st)
• Notable Additions:
  • Za'Darius Smith, ED
  • Preston Smith, ED
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Billy Turner, OL
  • Rashan Gary, ED
  • Darnell Savage, CB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Clay Matthews, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Randall Cobb, WR
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
• My Take: The Packers' scoring differential last year suggests that their record was a pretty accurate indicator of what type of team they were. However, fans have a number of reasons to reasonably hope for improvement. They had the worst luck in one score games, the worst injury luck (especially when you consider having to play with Rodgers hurt), and virtually tie with Detroit for the worst luck in takeaways. All of these areas carry a good probability of improving in 2019. Additionally, they made by far the biggest gains on the personnel side this offseason. Fans just need to hope that the new staff can get the offense clicking early enough in the season-- too long of an "install" period could mean that a surge in the second half is too little, too late.

Also, under notable subtractions you forgot to mention our most in demand castaway!

 

[Do7]

Come on @Dantés , not hopping on the Cleveland Bandwagon?

I like how you are predicting that both NFC wild card spots will (like 2 seasons ago) will be filled by 2 NFC south teams. To me it seems unlikely, but it is also so hard for me to give any of those 3 teams a significant edge over the other 2.


Also, under notable subtractions you forgot to mention our most in demand castaway!

And the fact that most of our losses were single possessions.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And the fact that most of our losses were single possessions.

It was mentioned that the Packers were 2-6-1 in one score games.

 

[Dantés]

Come on @Dantés , not hopping on the Cleveland Bandwagon?

I like how you are predicting that both NFC wild card spots will (like 2 seasons ago) will be filled by 2 NFC south teams. To me it seems unlikely, but it is also so hard to give any of those 3 teams a significant edge over the other 2.

Also, under notable subtractions you forgot to mention our most in demand castaway!

Cleveland is a lot better, but I'm not ready to hand them the division. Their offensive line could be a real problem.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here's a breakdown of relevant factors for our division:

Chicago Bears:

• 2018 Record: 12-4
• Record in One Score Games: 6-4
• Scoring Differential: +8.1 (3rd)
• Turnover Margin: +12 (3rd)
  • Giveaway: 24 (22nd)
  • Takeaway: 36 (1st)
• Adjusted Game Lost: 36.6 (3rd)
• Notable Additions:
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
  • Buster Skrine, CB
  • David Montgomery, RB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Bryce Callahan, CB
  • Jordan Howard, RB
• My Take: The 2018 Bears were no fluke, as demonstrated by their scoring differential and the fact that they weren't especially lucky in one score games (it's also notable that they didn't lose a game by more than one score). However, there are some chinks in the armor. They were lucky with health-- far luckier than the rest of the division. Outliers in takeaway numbers almost always regress to the mean. More broadly, elite defensive performances tend to regress to the mean. And to that point, their personnel changes on defense, while not major, were negative. Chicago could easily be back in the playoffs, but they are going to need progress from the offense to do it, as it's unlikely that the defense will repeat its 2018 level.

Minnesota Vikings:

• 2018 Record: 8-7-1
• Record in One Score Games: 3-2-1
• Scoring Differential: +1.2 (12th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 20 (16th)
  • Takeaway: 20 (16th)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 73.9 (12th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Josh Kline, OG
  • Shamar Stephen, iDL
  • Garrett Bradbury, OL
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Sheldon Richardson, iDL
  • Nick Easton, OL
  • Mike Remmers, OL
  • Andrew Sendejo, S
• My Take: The metrics are almost perfectly in line with what you'd expect from a 8-7-1 team. An average record is reflected in average results across the board. So it would seem that the Vikings were not secretly better or worse than their record in 2018. Furthermore, the personnel changes are relatively minor. There isn't much reason to believe that the Vikings will be a markedly different team in 2019. Hopes for Minnesota fans will need to be pinned on the changes on the offensive coaching staff.

Green Bay Packers:

• 2018 Record: 6-9-1
• Record in One Score Games: 2-6-1
• Scoring Differential: -1.5 (19th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 15 (2nd)
  • Takeaway: 15 (29th, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 92.7 (21st)
• Notable Additions:
  • Za'Darius Smith, ED
  • Preston Smith, ED
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Billy Turner, OL
  • Rashan Gary, ED
  • Darnell Savage, CB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Clay Matthews, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Randall Cobb, WR
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
• My Take: The Packers' scoring differential last year suggests that their record was a pretty accurate indicator of what type of team they were. However, fans have a number of reasons to reasonably hope for improvement. They had the worst luck in one score games, the worst injury luck (especially when you consider having to play with Rodgers hurt), and virtually tie with Detroit for the worst luck in takeaways. All of these areas carry a good probability of improving in 2019. Additionally, they made by far the biggest gains on the personnel side this offseason. Fans just need to hope that the new staff can get the offense clicking early enough in the season-- too long of an "install" period could mean that a surge in the second half is too little, too late.

Detroit Lions:

• 2018 Record: 6-10
• Record in One Score Games: 2-4
• Scoring Differential: -2.2 (21st)
• Turnover Margin: -5 (23rd)
  • Giveaway: 19 (11th)
  • Takeaway: 14 (31st, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 76.8 (15th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Trey Flowers, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Justin Coleman, CB
  • Danny Amendola, WR
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Ezekiel Ansah, ED
  • Nevin Lawson, CB
• My Take: The Lions, like the rest of the division, don't have any glaring metrics that suggest they were markedly better or worse than their record last season. But they do carry some indicators similar to the Packers suggesting that there are reasons for hope. They were not very lucky in one score games (though it does bear pointing out that their winning % overall and in one score games was almost identical). But their takeways ought to improve. And while I don't think they added nearly as much as the Packers did, personnel wise, they made positive gains in that area as well.

Bottom Line: I think any one of the teams in the division could make the playoffs, and a division title would not surprise me from the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Ultimately, I think the metrics suggest that the Packers will make the most forward progress and the Bears will feel the strongest pull towards regression. For that reason, I think the division will ultimately be fought over by those two teams in the end, but it will likely be tightly packed through most of the season.

Great analysis, thanks!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Well this is what Pete Rozelle wanted, parity. Cap rules make it tough to hold a dominant team together for more than 2, maybe 3 seasons.

Which makes NE’s dominance over the last 10 plus years that much more amazing, much as I hate to admit it. The lesson is that in an environment of parity, process is more important than players. Well, if you want to win multiple SBs that is......

 

[OldSchool101]

Here's a breakdown of relevant factors for our division:

Chicago Bears:

• 2018 Record: 12-4
• Record in One Score Games: 6-4
• Scoring Differential: +8.1 (3rd)
• Turnover Margin: +12 (3rd)
  • Giveaway: 24 (22nd)
  • Takeaway: 36 (1st)
• Adjusted Game Lost: 36.6 (3rd)
• Notable Additions:
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
  • Buster Skrine, CB
  • David Montgomery, RB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Bryce Callahan, CB
  • Jordan Howard, RB
• My Take: The 2018 Bears were no fluke, as demonstrated by their scoring differential and the fact that they weren't especially lucky in one score games (it's also notable that they didn't lose a game by more than one score). However, there are some chinks in the armor. They were lucky with health-- far luckier than the rest of the division. Outliers in takeaway numbers almost always regress to the mean. More broadly, elite defensive performances tend to regress to the mean. And to that point, their personnel changes on defense, while not major, were negative. Chicago could easily be back in the playoffs, but they are going to need progress from the offense to do it, as it's unlikely that the defense will repeat its 2018 level.

Minnesota Vikings:

• 2018 Record: 8-7-1
• Record in One Score Games: 3-2-1
• Scoring Differential: +1.2 (12th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 20 (16th)
  • Takeaway: 20 (16th)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 73.9 (12th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Josh Kline, OG
  • Shamar Stephen, iDL
  • Garrett Bradbury, OL
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Sheldon Richardson, iDL
  • Nick Easton, OL
  • Mike Remmers, OL
  • Andrew Sendejo, S
• My Take: The metrics are almost perfectly in line with what you'd expect from a 8-7-1 team. An average record is reflected in average results across the board. So it would seem that the Vikings were not secretly better or worse than their record in 2018. Furthermore, the personnel changes are relatively minor. There isn't much reason to believe that the Vikings will be a markedly different team in 2019. Hopes for Minnesota fans will need to be pinned on the changes on the offensive coaching staff.

Green Bay Packers:

• 2018 Record: 6-9-1
• Record in One Score Games: 2-6-1
• Scoring Differential: -1.5 (19th)
• Turnover Margin: 0 (19th, tie)
  • Giveaway: 15 (2nd)
  • Takeaway: 15 (29th, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 92.7 (21st)
• Notable Additions:
  • Za'Darius Smith, ED
  • Preston Smith, ED
  • Adrian Amos, S
  • Billy Turner, OL
  • Rashan Gary, ED
  • Darnell Savage, CB
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Clay Matthews, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Randall Cobb, WR
  • Haha Clinton-Dix, S
• My Take: The Packers' scoring differential last year suggests that their record was a pretty accurate indicator of what type of team they were. However, fans have a number of reasons to reasonably hope for improvement. They had the worst luck in one score games, the worst injury luck (especially when you consider having to play with Rodgers hurt), and virtually tie with Detroit for the worst luck in takeaways. All of these areas carry a good probability of improving in 2019. Additionally, they made by far the biggest gains on the personnel side this offseason. Fans just need to hope that the new staff can get the offense clicking early enough in the season-- too long of an "install" period could mean that a surge in the second half is too little, too late.

Detroit Lions:

• 2018 Record: 6-10
• Record in One Score Games: 2-4
• Scoring Differential: -2.2 (21st)
• Turnover Margin: -5 (23rd)
  • Giveaway: 19 (11th)
  • Takeaway: 14 (31st, tie)
• Adjusted Games Lost: 76.8 (15th)
• Notable Additions:
  • Trey Flowers, ED
  • Mike Daniels, iDL
  • Justin Coleman, CB
  • Danny Amendola, WR
• Notable Subtractions:
  • Ezekiel Ansah, ED
  • Nevin Lawson, CB
• My Take: The Lions, like the rest of the division, don't have any glaring metrics that suggest they were markedly better or worse than their record last season. But they do carry some indicators similar to the Packers suggesting that there are reasons for hope. They were not very lucky in one score games (though it does bear pointing out that their winning % overall and in one score games was almost identical). But their takeways ought to improve. And while I don't think they added nearly as much as the Packers did, personnel wise, they made positive gains in that area as well.

Bottom Line: I think any one of the teams in the division could make the playoffs, and a division title would not surprise me from the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Ultimately, I think the metrics suggest that the Packers will make the most forward progress and the Bears will feel the strongest pull towards regression. For that reason, I think the division will ultimately be fought over by those two teams in the end, but it will likely be tightly packed through most of the season.

Nicely done Dantés.
I think a prediction I’ll make is that GB will have a higher ceiling after mid season. It’s likely we come out of the blocks slower than the average team in our division. Much is attributed to the relatively young players. We will likely start at least 3 rookies this season. Lots more 1-3 year players also likely very involved.
So basically if we can go into the second half of season above .500 (5-3, 6-2, etc..) our playoff chances soar.
I feel like the Bears will regress 2-3 games. The resources added don’t make up for lost. They traded off a known quantity in Howard for Montgomery. At best that’s a very slight + but it’s likely a slight - nevertheless
Same goes for Amos vs Dix. I’ll take Amos 5 of 5 times.
The probability of being top 3 least injured? Zero
I don’t ever want to win on that stat, but statistically GB gets slightly healthier VS. 2018 and Bears get a dose of sad reality. They missed a huge opportunity last year to put it away while GB was suffering. Don’t expect us to be so nice in 2019
Finally the GB schedule is far better than 2018. We play ALL of NFC East Division. No Pats, No Rams etc..