Packers Roster Assessment, 2025 Off-Season

[tynimiller]

that tells me the time to take one if they want one is round 7

IMO if you don't nab one with one of your first two picks it's likely the value is wait till the 5th likely. Don't get me wrong there are a few guys likely there in the third I'd fully grab but it's a thin top end class...just my opinion. A lot of athletic traitsy guys though, the growth in athletes in general has caused a lot of depth in classes it seems of late.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I've decided that I'm going to keep the faith and like whatever Gute decides to do. One caveat. That he goes after real football players and not high ceiling potential ones.

Agreed, and especially in round 1 and round 2. I'm tired of first round "projects" - meaning very athletic guys who are expected to dramatically improve their production in the NFL. Rashan Gary was one such guy, and while he did indeed step up his game, he's inconsistent.

Another is LVN, although I thought in his case the expectation was he wasn't a "project" and would be a day-one starter. He was selected #13 overall I think, and that's not an unreasonable request. He has been underwhelming. It's his third year, and he has to make significant strides this year, right now.

Gluten does way better with later round picks who over-achieve, or it seems that way.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's the one thing however that I think some struggle with....first round picks have massive expectations and a GM is at times confronted with the choice of:

Option A - Draft the incredibly rare traitsy guy who does have good film, has had production but is still what many refer to as raw...he comes in as say a C type player but the sky is literally the limit for his future because he has so many uncoachable things.

Option B - Draft the guy that has production, good film, but is capped out on the uncoachable things. He comes in as maybe a B- or C+ player and likely will retire a B at most type guy.


BOTH of these prospects 100% are guys you can build a team with....Savage is a perfect example of a Option B type guy...starter level player, but arguably never built anything upon what he was. Starting level players are RARE human beings however....then you have Option A which are your Trey Hendrickson types potentially...take a while to turn into what they are...Rashan Gary might be the best GB example of this...but there are countless dudes like this shoot Travon Walker looked mid-level guy year one being a number one pick...Kayvon Thibodeaux also looked okay first year...Lewis Cine a first rounder who simply hasn't contributed....Daxton Hill has underachieved in many eyes as a first rounder for Cinci....

It's very easy for us all to sit without our job on the line or truly impacting an NFL (multi-million dollar business) to say don't draft the prospect who shows signs of being the next Trey Hendrickson and instead get that guy that is likely an 8-10 year pro but never All Pro....and that is pretending we know that much of the future of these guys....folks each year label a guy as raw or needing a few years and they come in and pop immediately (shoot...look at how well Evan Williams succeeded).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here's the one thing however that I think some struggle with....first round picks have massive expectations and a GM is at times confronted with the choice of:

Option A - Draft the incredibly rare traitsy guy who does have good film, has had production but is still what many refer to as raw...he comes in as say a C type player but the sky is literally the limit for his future because he has so many uncoachable things.

Option B - Draft the guy that has production, good film, but is capped out on the uncoachable things. He comes in as maybe a B- or C+ player and likely will retire a B at most type guy.


BOTH of these prospects 100% are guys you can build a team with....Savage is a perfect example of a Option B type guy...starter level player, but arguably never built anything upon what he was. Starting level players are RARE human beings however....then you have Option A which are your Trey Hendrickson types potentially...take a while to turn into what they are...Rashan Gary might be the best GB example of this...but there are countless dudes like this shoot Travon Walker looked mid-level guy year one being a number one pick...Kayvon Thibodeaux also looked okay first year...Lewis Cine a first rounder who simply hasn't contributed....Daxton Hill has underachieved in many eyes as a first rounder for Cinci....

It's very easy for us all to sit without our job on the line or truly impacting an NFL (multi-million dollar business) to say don't draft the prospect who shows signs of being the next Trey Hendrickson and instead get that guy that is likely an 8-10 year pro but never All Pro....and that is pretending we know that much of the future of these guys....folks each year label a guy as raw or needing a few years and they come in and pop immediately (shoot...look at how well Evan Williams succeeded).

Yeah this is a good way to look at early round 1 picks. I remember Savage having a great rookie year, but he never grew past that. Gary was the opposite. I really hope LVN has a break out year. I've been back on forth on a Hendrickson trade. That would be a big, ballsy move by Gluten. I think if it was gonna append, we'd know already.

The GM is "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't". And this year the draft is artificially more important because there was little available in FA. That's not the GM's fault.

And then guys like Bakhtiari and Evan Williams come around (Bakh was a 4th rounder, Williams a 3rd I think). Bakhtairi became an All Pro and Williams ceiling looks very high. Add in E Cooper - and what team would not have drafted him in the first if they knew what he could do?

Things average out. Gotta trust the GM to make the best decision(s) given what he has to work with, and certainly Gluten has earned that trust. And when was the last time any GB GM made the entire fan base happy?

 

[gopkrs]

Also, by the time some of these guys come around; their original contract is about up. Let's not draft potential. There are too many football players out there that can help the team and stick around. And don't be afraid to play them. Give them some experience. Especially early on the season. Imho

 

[tynimiller]

Also, by the time some of these guys come around; their original contract is about up. Let's not draft potential. There are too many football players out there that can help the team and stick around. And don't be afraid to play them. Give them some experience. Especially early on the season. Imho

To be fair though every single draft pick outside of maybe a handful each year (talking 5 or less) are drafting potential...I mean shoot most pundits and scouting departments I've either had contact with or do still very rarely even have more than a couple dozen first round graded guys.

I 100% get I think what you're meaning by the statement, but incase others are reading I think many assume there are prospects that are "NFL known" and it just isn't the case.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Also, by the time some of these guys come around; their original contract is about up. Let's not draft potential. There are too many football players out there that can help the team and stick around. And don't be afraid to play them. Give them some experience. Especially early on the season. Imho

I understand your frustration gopkrs, yet it's very hard to draft a guy straight from college without seeing some potential at the NFL-level that hasn't yet been realized in college.

Another way to look at it - how many impact players - guys who contribute on day 1 - are drafted each year, or even during their rookie year? My guess, not many. I think guys like Cooper and E Williams last year were drafted for potential. The same is true for 7th round pick Rasheed Walker. These guys are all starters now.

Gluten fortunately has a solid eye for talent. But even with that, the potential doesn't always arise. Still waiting on 1st round pick LVN to live up to his potential, and it's been two years. We all have to be good at what we do, and a little lucky. Or a lot lucky......

 

[PackerDNA]

Kind of ironic that in a year when we finally have some cap room, free agency is slim pickings. I believe Gute fully intended to be active this year, but when looking at what was available and some of the trades and contracts given out, he decided best to go another route. Add in that a lot of our young starters are up for contracts next year, and we're just going to have to wait and see.

 

[McKnowledge]

Agreed, and especially in round 1 and round 2. I'm tired of first round "projects" - meaning very athletic guys who are expected to dramatically improve their production in the NFL. Rashan Gary was one such guy, and while he did indeed step up his game, he's inconsistent.

Another is LVN, although I thought in his case the expectation was he wasn't a "project" and would be a day-one starter. He was selected #13 overall I think, and that's not an unreasonable request. He has been underwhelming. It's his third year, and he has to make significant strides this year, right now.

Gluten does way better with later round picks who over-achieve, or it seems that way.

Since the draft is in Green Bay and the fans are the "owners" of the team, why not let the fans have input on the 1st round pick?

 

[tynimiller]

Since the draft is in Green Bay and the fans are the "owners" of the team, why not let the fans have input on the 1st round pick?

BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE TERRIBLE....clearly you don't read the moronic takes and opinions of many of our most outspoken folks on social media sources LOL

 

[Heyjoe4]

Since the draft is in Green Bay and the fans are the "owners" of the team, why not let the fans have input on the 1st round pick?

Now there is an interesting concept. How many "owners" does GB have? Thousands? Tens of thousands? How would they ever reach a decision? Answer - they wouldn't.

But like most owners (with the exception of Jerruh Jones), most decisions on player acquisition are given to the GM and his team. I'm sure the HC is very involved, but in the end, Murphy has empowered Gluten to make these calls. And this is a sign of a well-run organization, where the GMs and other FO personnel are much closer to the players on the team and being considered for trade (both ways) or draft. Russ Ball does a masterful job drafting all the contracts and extensions and managing the cap.

 

[McKnowledge]

BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE TERRIBLE....clearly you don't read the moronic takes and opinions of many of our most outspoken folks on social media sources LOL

I was being sarcastic my friend...here...have a Snickers. LOL!!!

 

[Heyjoe4]

I was being sarcastic my friend...here...have a Snickers. LOL!!!

A Snickers, or time to switch to decaf.

 

[tynimiller]

I was being sarcastic my friend...here...have a Snickers. LOL!!!

More of a butterfinger guy LOL

 

[Thirteen Below]

Oh wow lambeau, that is just not a good thought. Anyway, I'm sure it happened to me when I was young. I don't remember much before age 50 anymore.

I sometimes wish I didn't.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Now there is an interesting concept. How many "owners" does GB have? Thousands? Tens of thousands?

AI sez 538,967.

i just love this new toy my wife gave me....

 

[Heyjoe4]

AI sez 538,967.

i just love this new toy my wife gave me....

Wow I never would have guessed that man. I think the population of GB is around 100,000.

 

[OldSchool101]

Also, by the time some of these guys come around; their original contract is about up. Let's not draft potential. There are too many football players out there that can help the team and stick around. And don't be afraid to play them. Give them some experience. Especially early on the season. Imho

So interesting you brought that up. imo a team should balance that some with the Roster conditions. Meaning if you are in a rebuild, go ahead and backup in the draft and collect more draft selections. Sell off aging veterans that would otherwise not get another contract and are nearing their contract terms for equity. Draft more players leaning towards projection or ceiling.

In a situation like ours currently I feel it’s different. I think year 1 with Love we leaned projection. Once we realized we were closer than anticipated to a SB push, (2024 Draft) we began
1. go after more experienced players or
2. players or positions that could help quicker
3. Draft more in areas we can get more dart throws at said traits. Which is partly why I believe traded Rasul out of nowhere.

When we look across the 2024 draft we got an array of
1. 5th year Senior
2. 5 year Starters
3. Team Captains
4. Full 4 year Starters or players who impacted as Freshman

We really broke off our standard protocol of baseball and basketball 20 year olds with 9.999 RAS scores and only playing 1 year of High School of High School wrestling Just kidding (I think?). Which leads me to my next point.

 

[OldSchool101]

One issue last season was we lost 50% of our Top 6 Draft selections spanning the last 2 Drafts to debilitating injuries. Musgrave, Morgan, Lloyd. Those are all players that should’ve been Lead Actors or key Supporting actors in this Play early on in 2024. Yet all were gone for essentially the season inside of the first half of Game 5. Morgan and Lloyd were players I fully expected were drafted specifically to get playing time near immediately.

In 2025 we don’t just have our regular clump of natural selections. I’d argue we have draft selections 23,25,42,55,87,87 Day1-2 talent being added into the mix over top of Edgerrin and Javon. Now granted we know who 3 of them are in Morgan, Musgrave and Lloyd, but that doesn’t make those newer drafted players any less valuable than 2025 draftees (I left off Hopper because Jury is still out for me there). If anything they’ve been in “the playbook” or “acclimatized” much more than an Entire grouping of Draft green peas.

Thirdly, as said perfectly by someone or several people in here, we have probably the largest group of young players entering their 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons due to unusually large draft classes. Where do players typically ascend or begin to peak? I’d argue 3rd to 4th seasons. Yet very possibly sooner (Sophomore) with last years more mature class due to stated traits above.

 

[OldSchool101]

In summary, The Packers have an abundance advantage. That advantage is a stealthy undercurrent of recently drafted players maturing into key contributors while not eating up massive Cap expenditures.

This is why I’m concerned about widening the margin of the very few and specific areas of weakness. (The J’aire Saga). #4 below could easily elevate to the Top area.
1. Pass rush (we had zero players in the Top 100 of QB pressure rate in 2024)
2. WR Quality at its Top End
3. iDL rotational starter
4. CB Future/CB depth
5. LB depth

I feel like we can effectively cover 1 more with an outside FA signing or trade deal (similar to our past plugging Reed from Seattle at DL or Whitney? Mercilus few years back). Bring in a lower echelon contract, but Veteran who can essentially be plug n play.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

In summary, The Packers have an abundance advantage. That advantage is a stealthy undercurrent of recently drafted players maturing into key contributors while not eating up massive Cap expenditures.

This is why I’m concerned about widening the margin of the very few and specific areas of weakness. (The J’aire Saga). #4 below could easily elevate to the Top area.
1. Pass rush (we had zero players in the Top 100 of QB pressure rate in 2024)
2. WR Quality at its Top End
3. iDL rotational starter
4. CB Future/CB depth
5. LB depth

I feel like we can effectively cover 1 more with an outside FA signing or trade deal (similar to our past plugging Reed from Seattle at DL or Whitney? Mercilus few years back). Bring in a lower echelon contract, but Veteran who can essentially be plug n play.

I would not be surprised if Gutey adds another veteran or two once the asking price drops...Patience is a virtue.

I would also not be shocked if he doesn't and just focuses on the draft. I don't think he's locked into a position on this.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I would not be surprised if Gutey adds another veteran or two once the asking price drops...Patience is a virtue.

I would also not be shocked if he doesn't and just focuses on the draft. I don't think he's locked into a position on this.

Well said. Sometimes doing nothing, or very little, in FA is the best move. I have enough faith in Gluten to know that he'll pull the trigger on a deal if the need is there along with the right mix of talent and cost. He won't stretch very far.

Unfortunately, and given the Packers' most pressing needs, this wasn't a good year to meet those needs via FA.

I will be very interested to see what Gluten does in round 1. He only has 7 or 8 picks so I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade back. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade up to get one of the highly-ranked WRs. I just don't know what he'll do, which makes the whole draft a lot of fun to watch.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Well said. Sometimes doing nothing, or very little, in FA is the best move. I have enough faith in Gluten to know that he'll pull the trigger on a deal if the need is there along with the right mix of talent and cost. He won't stretch very far.

Unfortunately, and given the Packers' most pressing needs, this wasn't a good year to meet those needs via FA.

I will be very interested to see what Gluten does in round 1. He only has 7 or 8 picks so I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade back. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade up to get one of the highly-ranked WRs. I just don't know what he'll do, which makes the whole draft a lot of fun to watch.

I agree.

Last year the Pack needed a massive upgrade at safety and wanted a younger workhorse running back; fortunately, guys like Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs were available, and Gutey didn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

This year he didn't like the available talent as much and made a few smaller movers. Green Bay still has obvious needs and the upcoming draft becomes crucial to addressing those.

Draft day is always fun for me, and it being in Titletown this year makes it all the more special.

Go Pack Go!

 

[Schultz]

In summary, The Packers have an abundance advantage. That advantage is a stealthy undercurrent of recently drafted players maturing into key contributors while not eating up massive Cap expenditures.

This is why I’m concerned about widening the margin of the very few and specific areas of weakness. (The J’aire Saga). #4 below could easily elevate to the Top area.
1. Pass rush (we had zero players in the Top 100 of QB pressure rate in 2024)
2. WR Quality at its Top End
3. iDL rotational starter
4. CB Future/CB depth
5. LB depth

I feel like we can effectively cover 1 more with an outside FA signing or trade deal (similar to our past plugging Reed from Seattle at DL or Whitney? Mercilus few years back). Bring in a lower echelon contract, but Veteran who can essentially be plug n play.

1A. Dline. Either inside or outside who can pressure the QB.
1B. An outside cover corner.
1C. Whomever you did not get from 1A.
4A. WR - all around receiver.
4B. OL- Left tackle.
6A. LB depth- Special teams player.
6B. WR- Deep threat
Draft plus a late FA signing.
IMO.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree.

Last year the Pack needed a massive upgrade at safety and wanted a younger workhorse running back; fortunately, guys like Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs were available, and Gutey didn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

This year he didn't like the available talent as much and made a few smaller movers. Green Bay still has obvious needs and the upcoming draft becomes crucial to addressing those.

Draft day is always fun for me, and it being in Titletown this year makes it all the more special.

Go Pack Go!

Yeah it will be fun to watch the draft from Green Bay. Although I have no idea where they will put all the people. There are supposed to be 250,000 people in town. I'll still watch from home near Milwaukee.