Packers in best shape for next three years (ESPN)

[Deleted member 6794]

I suspect Tretter will be ready to step in and one of the current starters will walk or retire. I think Tretter was drafted to be an eventual starter.

It's true Tretter was drafted to start at center down the road but because of injuries lost the job to Linsley. In his limited snaps he didn't show a lot of promise being able to play a different position.

I think Barclay could also fill that spot and potentially Bulaga if the team found a RT in next year's draft they really like. The days of Kramer and Thurston forever are over. Thompson doesn't roll that way and will continue refreshing the roster imo.

Barclay is most likely capable of playing guard at a decent level, don't think Bulaga would be a good fit. None of them would be an upgrade over Sitton and Lang though.

 

[PikeBadger]

It's true Tretter was drafted to start at center down the road but because of injuries lost the job to Linsley. In his limited snaps he didn't show a lot of promise being able to play a different position.



Barclay is most likely capable of playing guard at a decent level, don't think Bulaga would be a good fit. None of them would be an upgrade over Sitton and Lang though.

Not today it wouldn't. It will depend on the development of others. My guess is Thompson would rather sink big money into Bakhtiari than either Sitton or Lang in 18 months.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Not today it wouldn't. It will depend on the development of others. My guess is Thompson would rather sink big money into Bakhtiari than either Sitton or Lang in 18 months.

Once again, if the offensive line continues to perform at a high level over the next two years Thompson should try to re-sign all of them.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I do. They'll both be very expensive and over 30. Injuries are likely by then to have begun to take its toll on both of them. By then we'll have someone ready to step in. I'll be very surprised and somewhat disappointed if Thompson feels he's in a position that both need to be re-signed. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tretter starting during the 2016 season.

I think you're right on that. Lang will be 29 at the start of the '17 season; Sitton will be 31. If they play the next 2 seasons the way they played last year, they'll both have very good value in the FA market.

In 2012, Wells went for 4 years / $24 mil from the Rams at age 31 coming off a Pro Bowl year.

I'm not finding complete details on Colledge's Cardinal contract, but I see that he was paid $17.5 mil cash for 3 seasons (2011 - 2013), with $4.55 mil in dead cap left over.

The NFL cap in 2011 and 2012 was $120 mil. If the cap goes to $160 mil by 2017 as some project, bump those Wells/Colledge numbers up 33% for 2017 cap-inflation-adjusted numbers.

While Wells came off a Pro Bowl season to garner that contract, Sitton will be the same age in 2017, is a somewhat better player with his own Pro Bowl bona fides, while playing a more valued position. If he's a 3-time Pro Bowler by then, a very lucrative 3-4 year deal will be coming his way.

Lang will be 29 in 2017, the same age as Colledge when he signed that Arizona deal in 2011. I think we can all agree Lang is a better all-around OG than Colledge. He'd be at the prime age for an O-Lineman for a 4 - 5 year deal; if he gets to Pro Bowl level, and he's not far off, he could be one of the top OL FAs in that class.

Bakhtiari will also be a FA after 2016. Even average LTs make pretty good coin.

Sitton, Lang and Bulaga are paid pretty well right now. It's not an issue at this point with the other two starters working on very cheap rookie deals. Bulaga's cap hit goes to $7.85 mil in 2017; paying all three of those FAs what they'd worth if they keep doing what they've been doing will likely be prohibitive.

There's two full seasons to go before we get there; a lot can happen with these players either rising or falling.

I continue to assert that 2016 is the sweet spot, particularly if Peppers can stay productive and play into the final year of his deal at a $10 mil cap hit.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think you're right on that. Lang will be 29 at the start of the '17 season; Sitton will be 31. If they play the next 2 seasons the way they played last year, they'll both have very good value in the FA market.

In 2012, Wells went for 4 years / $24 mil from the Rams at age 31 coming off a Pro Bowl year.

I'm not finding complete details on Colledge's Cardinal contract, but I see that he was paid $17.5 mil cash for 3 seasons (2011 - 2013), with $4.55 mil in dead cap left over.

The NFL cap in 2011 and 2012 was $120 mil. If the cap goes to $160 mil by 2017 as some project, bump those Wells/Colledge numbers up 33% for 2017 cap-inflation-adjusted numbers.

While Wells came off a Pro Bowl season to garner that contract, Sitton will be the same age in 2017, is a somewhat better player with his own Pro Bowl bona fides, while playing a more valued position. If he's a 3-time Pro Bowler by then, a very lucrative 3-4 year deal will be coming his way.

Lang will be 29 in 2017, the same age as Colledge when he signed that Arizona deal in 2011. I think we can all agree Lang is a better all-around OG than Colledge. He'd be at the prime age for an O-Lineman for a 4 - 5 year deal; if he gets to Pro Bowl level, and he's not far off, he could be one of the top OL FAs in that class.

Bakhtiari will also be a FA after 2016. Even average LTs make pretty good coin.

Sitton, Lang and Bulaga are paid pretty well right now. It's not an issue at this point with the other two starters working on very cheap rookie deals. Bulaga's cap hit goes to $7.85 mil in 2017; paying all three of those FAs what they'd worth if they keep doing what they've been doing will likely be prohibitive.

There's two full seasons to go before we get there; a lot can happen with these players either rising or falling.

I continue to assert that 2016 is the sweet spot, particularly if Peppers can stay productive and play into the final year of his deal at a $10 mil cap hit.

There's another possibility with the Packers extending Sitton's or Lang's contract early, possibly being able to work out a cheaper deal.

BTW Colledge signed a five-year, $27.5 million ($7.5 million guaranteed) with the Cardinals in 2011.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There's another possibility with the Packers extending Sitton's or Lang's contract early, possibly being able to work out a cheaper deal.

BTW Colledge signed a five-year, $27.5 million ($7.5 million guaranteed) with the Cardinals in 2011.

OK, take that College number, add 33% for inflation, and then add Lang's premium for being a better player, which he certainly is. That's a lot.

As far as extensions go, the landscape has changed in the past 2 year. In the years leading up to the 2011 CBA, there would have been uncertainty as to where the future cap levels would be, and the first couple of years after the CBA the cap was just getting back to pre-CBA levels. Now, the players have better visibility as to where the cap is going. While they might give up a piece of that future inflation being built into an early-extension contract in exchange for signing bonus cash, they're not going to give up all of it.

We saw this already with Jennings and Raji turning down extensions that were not particularly discounted to begin with, $10 mil per year and $8 mil per year, respectively, according to reports. While they may have underestimated the seasons they would have and their eventual FA value, with Jennings only slightly off target, visibility on where the salary cap was heading was surely a factor in their turning down the money. I doubt that viewpoint would be unique.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Not today it wouldn't. It will depend on the development of others. My guess is Thompson would rather sink big money into Bakhtiari than either Sitton or Lang in 18 months.

I wouldn't be sure about that.

It could just as easily be a case of somebody needing a LT and throwing stupid money at Bahktiari, especially if he keeps playing the way did last season and he can manage to knock 5 or so major penalties off the rap sheet.

If that happens, look for Bulaga to go over to LT with a RT to be named later. That could be Barclay, but he's only signed through 2015. He's the presumptive #1 backup at 4 positions. Chances are somebody will miss some games along the way. If he gets to play some in 2015 and returns to the form he showed filling in for Bulaga, somebody might pay him enough to pull him away.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As far as extensions go, the landscape has changed in the past 2 year. In the years leading up to the 2011 CBA, there would have been uncertainty as to where the future cap levels would be, and the first couple of years after the CBA the cap was just getting back to pre-CBA levels. Now, the players have better visibility as to where the cap is going. While they might give up a piece of that future inflation being built into the an early-extension contract in exchange for signing bonus cash, they're not going to give up all of it.

We saw this already with Jennings and Raji turning down extensions that were not particularly discounted to begin with, $10 mil per year and $8 mil per year, respectively, according to reports. While they may have underestimated the seasons they would have and their eventual FA value, with Jennings only slightly off target, visibility on where the salary cap was heading was surely a factor in their turning down the money. I doubt that viewpoint would be unique.

It differs case-by-case though as Aaron Rodgers signed a deal with two years remaining on his contract and Jordy Nelson with a season left for less money they could have gotten on the open market.

I wouldn't be surprised if Thompson tries to extend some of the guys early next offseason.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It differs case-by-case though as Aaron Rodgers signed a deal with two years remaining on his contract and Jordy Nelson with a season left for less money they could have gotten on the open market.

I wouldn't be surprised if Thompson tries to extend some of the guys early next offseason.

Nelson is an uncommon individual. One report had him getting ribbed in the clubhouse for taking too little money in his previous contract. He doesn't care; he wisely knows which side of the bread has the butter, something Jennings didn't quite get when he signed on to play with Ponder. Jennings, not Nelson, is closer to the rule, not the exception.

Besides, how much did Nelson really give up? He got 4 years for $39 mil in the extension. What's that? a $1 - $2 mil discount? The surprising part of that contract was the signing bonus...only $11.5 mil...but that won't matter unless the team finds some need to release him by 2017 in the context of this discussion, in which case there is another huge hole to fill.

Even if we assume the 3 O-Linemen took similar discounts, say $4.5 mil per year total, the savings buys you a Mike Neal per year.

Cobb reportedly took a little less money in free agency to stick around, wisely, but he still landed $10 mil per year. What do you think he gave up? Maybe $1 mil per year?

As far as Rodgers goes, despite second-tier QB pay escalation which began with Flaco and has gotten subsequently further out of hand (see Cam Newton, third-tier?), Rodgers' deal is still the largest to date at $22 mil per year. The $54 mil guaranteed outstrips anything before or since. Considering Brady's constantly renegotiated deals have been for around $15 mil/year average cash pay and Brees' last deal was for $20 mil per year, I don't think it's so much a case of Rodgers taking a discount as the lower tier QBs being overpaid.

It's also worth noting Sitton got 6 years at nearly $6 mil per year back before the 2011 season, before the big cap jumps, and before he made a Pro Bowl. Lang took $22 mil over 5 years before the 2012 season; he's taken a marked step up in rank over the last 2 years. Given where those players were at the time, and what the cap was at the time, I'm not seeing much of a discount in those numbers. And while both of these guys seem to like playing in Green Bay, it's worth noting both already have a ring.

All in all, judging from history, the early signing savings from vet players who have established good-better-best starter credentials won't be all that great.

Where the savings come in is when a promising player gets extended during his rookie deal when he's making relative peanuts. A signing bonus now might appeal to any impatience he might have for waiting another year. Even so, Burnett was that player and it took a couple of years for him to earn it.

There's no magic bullet. In the end success comes down to having enough guys who end up playing above their contract.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Nelson is an uncommon individual. One report had him getting ribbed in the clubhouse for taking too little money in his previous contract. He doesn't care; he wisely knows which side of the bread has the butter, something Jennings didn't quite get when he signed on to play with Ponder. Jennings, not Nelson, is closer to the rule, not the exception.

Besides, how much did Nelson really give up? He got 4 years for $39 mil in the extension. What's that? a $1 - $2 mil discount? The surprising part of that contract was the signing bonus...only $11.5 mil...but that won't matter unless the team finds some need to release him by 2017 in the context of this discussion, in which case there is another huge hole to fill.

Even if we assume the 3 O-Linemen took similar discounts, say $4.5 mil per year total, the savings buys you a Mike Neal per year.

Cobb reportedly took a little less money in free agency to stick around, wisely, but he still landed $10 mil per year. What do you think he gave up? Maybe $1 mil per year?

As far as Rodgers goes, despite second-tier QB pay escalation which began with Flaco and has gotten subsequently further out of hand (see Cam Newton, third-tier?), Rodgers' deal is still the largest to date at $22 mil per year. The $54 mil guaranteed outstrips anything before or since. Considering Brady's constantly renegotiated deals have been for around $15 mil/year average cash pay and Brees' last deal was for $20 mil per year, I don't think it's so much a case of Rodgers taking a discount as the lower tier QBs being overpaid.

It's also worth noting Sitton got 6 years at nearly $6 mil per year back before the 2011 season, before the big cap jumps, and before he made a Pro Bowl. Lang took $22 mil over 5 years before the 2012 season; he's taken a marked step up in rank over the last 2 years. Given where those players were at the time, and what the cap was at the time, I'm not seeing much of a discount in those numbers. And while both of these guys seem to like playing in Green Bay, it's worth noting both already have a ring.

All in all, judging from history, the early signing savings from vet players who have established good-better-best starter credentials won't be all that great.

Where the savings come in is when a promising player gets extended during his rookie deal when he's making relative peanuts. A signing bonus now might appeal to any impatience he might have for waiting another year. Even so, Burnett was that player and it took a couple of years for him to earn it.

There's no magic bullet. In the end success comes down to having enough guys who end up playing above their contract.

There´s no denying that having two guards playing under their rookie contracts would save way more money than re-signing Sitton or Lang early. I wonder though if it´s a good idea to completely start over in 2017 with two new guards playing in front of Rodgers, who will be 33 years old at that time and maybe doesn´t want to wait for these guys to learn the position and perform at a decent level.

The Packers are in a good shape regarding the salary cap, probably entering this season with roughly $14 million in cap space. They should be able to figure out a way to re-sign Lacy and all of their offensive linemen in 2017.

 

[PikeBadger]

There´s no denying that having two guards playing under their rookie contracts would save way more money than re-signing Sitton or Lang early. I wonder though if it´s a good idea to completely start over in 2017 with two new guards playing in front of Rodgers, who will be 33 years old at that time and maybe doesn´t want to wait for these guys to learn the position and perform at a decent level.

The Packers are in a good shape regarding the salary cap, probably entering this season with roughly $14 million in cap space. They should be able to figure out a way to re-sign Lacy and all of their offensive linemen in 2017.

Maybe, but it would be really good if they could replace one of the OL with little or no dropoff in performance with a cheaper and younger guy.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe, but it would be really good if they could replace one of the OL with little or no dropoff in performance with a cheaper and younger guy.

Absolutely agree with that but it's close to impossible that a first-year starter would replace Sitton or Lang without any dropoff.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There´s no denying that having two guards playing under their rookie contracts would save way more money than re-signing Sitton or Lang early. I wonder though if it´s a good idea to completely start over in 2017 with two new guards playing in front of Rodgers, who will be 33 years old at that time and maybe doesn´t want to wait for these guys to learn the position and perform at a decent level.

The Packers are in a good shape regarding the salary cap, probably entering this season with roughly $14 million in cap space. They should be able to figure out a way to re-sign Lacy and all of their offensive linemen in 2017.

You should have noticed that I did not argue that the Packers would need to replace two guards. What I did argue is that if Sitton, Lang and Bakhtiari (all FAs after 2016) continue to play at the same level (or better, perish the thought ) that they're at now and stay relatively healthy, there would be too much cap allocated to the O-Line if all 3 were signed. These will be expensive players, early extensions or not. Signing two out three would be my guess at this very early date.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Maybe, but it would be really good if they could replace one of the OL with little or no dropoff in performance with a cheaper and younger guy.

If the starting O-Line can stay healthy in 2015, thereby keeping Barclay off the field in the regular season, he won't be able to pile up many chips going into 2016 free agency. If the Packers are confident his ACL is sound, while other teams would not have that first hand information, the Packers could sign him to fairly inexpensive deal after this season.

It's a lot of ifs, but judging how he played RT, he'd likely make a pretty decent OG come 2017 if the ACL is sound. Or he could take over RT with Bulaga flipping to the left side.

 

[vince]

I'm not seeing how Sitton, Lang, Bakh, and Lacy can all be re-signed for 2017.

Blow are the cap hits by year for all Packer players sourced from Spotrac. It's hard to read but 2017 is the 3rd salary listed. I've made some projections that may or may not be accurate, but at minimum, the cap space that the roster spot which would replace some of the guys listed will be similar in size. This would appear to be a optimistic scenario given re-signing those four offensive players.

Here's what it looks like with those four re-signed for 2017.

Offense - 22 players - $90 million
Defense - 23 players - $75 million
ST - 3 players - $5 million
Final Contracts to get Top 51 - 3 players - $1.5 million

Total - $171.5 million

Over the Cap projects the 2017 cap to be $160 million.

Already GONE are:
J.C. Tretter
Don Barclay
Andrew Quarless
Letroy Guion
Datone Jones
Nick Perry
Julius Peppers
Casey Hayward
Sean Richardson

PLAYER    POS.    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019
Aaron Rodgers    QB    $18,250,000    $19,250,000    $20,300,000    $20,900,000    $21,100,000
Brett Hundley    QB    $490,908    $580,908    $670,908    $760,908    UFA
Scott Tolzien    QB    $1,200,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
Randall Cobb    WR    $5,350,000    $9,150,000    $12,750,000    $12,750,000    UFA
Jordy Nelson    WR    $4,600,000    $8,800,000    $11,550,000    $12,550,000    UFA
Davante Adams    WR    $893,955    $1,072,746    $1,251,537    UFA    -
Ty Montgomery    WR    $586,636    $693,386    $788,636    $880,137    UFA
Jeff Janis    WR    $522,848    $612,848    $702,848    UFA    -
Larry Pinkard    WR    $436,000    $526,000    $616,000    RFA    -
                    
Eddie Lacy    RB    $925,203    $1,079,404    $7,000,000    -    -
Rajoin Neal    RB    $435,000    $525,000    $1,000,000    -    -
John Crockett    RB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Aaron Ripkowski    FB    $461,599    $551,599    $641,599    $731,599    UFA
James Starks    RB    $1,837,500    UFA    GONE    -    -
John Kuhn    FB    $635,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
Bryan Bulaga    RT    $3,568,750    $5,600,000    $7,850,000    $8,350,000    $8,350,000
Josh Sitton    G    $7,000,000    $6,600,000    $7,000,000    -    -
David Bakhtiari    LT    $698,850    $788,850    $7,000,000    -    -
T.J. Lang    G    $5,800,000    $6,200,000    $6,000,000    -    -
Corey Linsley    C    $556,250    $646,250    $736,250    UFA    -
Matt Rotheram    G    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Back-up Tackle                $750,000    
J.C. Tretter    C    $688,977    $778,977    GONE    -    -
Don Barclay    RT    $1,542,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
Richard Rodgers    TE    $649,004    $739,004    $826,504    UFA    -
Kennard Backman    TE    $457,621    $547,621    $637,621    $727,624    UFA
Justin Perillo    TE    $510,000    ERFA    $750,000    -    -
Andrew Quarless    TE    $1,750,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
                    
Mike Daniels    DE    $1,617,146    UFA    $7,000,000    -    -
B.J. Raji    DE    $1,750,000    UFA    $4,000,000    -    -
Christian Ringo    DE    $457,621    $547,621    $637,621    $727,621    UFA
Josh Boyd    DT    $621,140    $711,140    $750,000    -    -
Khyri Thornton    DT    $673,813    $763,813    $855,813    UFA    -
Lavon Hooks    DT    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Letroy Guion    DT    $2,750,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
Datone Jones    DE    $2,104,525    $2,455,280    GONE    -    -
                    
Jayrone Elliot    EL    $511,666    $601,668    $2,000,000    -    -
Adrian Hubbard    EL    $435,000    $525,000    $1,000,000    -    -
Michael Neal    EL    $4,250,000    UFA    $4,000,000    -    -
Nick Perry    EL    $2,386,125    UFA    GONE    -    -
Julius Peppers    EL    $12,000,000    $10,500,000    GONE    -    -
Clay Matthews    LB    $12,700,000    $13,750,000    $15,200,000    $11,400,000    UFA
Sam Barrington    ILB    $597,250    $687,250    $4,000,000    -    -
Jake Ryan    ILB    $549,169    $639,169    $729,169    $819,169    UFA
Carl Bradford    ILB    $617,325    $707,325    $797,325    UFA    -
Tavarus Dantzler    ILB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
                    
Sam Shields    CB    $9,062,500    $12,125,000    $12,125,000    UFA    -
Damarious Randall    CB    $1,439,224    $1,799,030    $2,158,836    $2,518,643    UFA
Quinten Rollins    CB    $680,466    $850,583    $1,020,699    $1,190,818    UFA
Demetri Goodson    CB    $535,788    $625,788    $715,788    UFA    -
LaDarius Gunter    CB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Casey Hayward    CB    $1,053,154    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
Morgan Burnett    S    $5,131,250    $6,050,000    $7,000,000    UFA    -
Micah Hyde    S    $629,527    $719,527    $6,000,000    -    -
HaHa Clinton-Dix    S    $1,895,114    $2,274,137    $2,653,159    UFA    -
Back-up Safety                $750,000    
Sean Richardson    S    $2,550,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                    
Mason Crosby    K    $3,550,000    UFA    $3,000,000    -    -
Tim Masthay    P    $1,340,000    $1,540,000    $2,000,000    -    -
Brett Goode    LS    $976,250    UFA    $600,000    -    -
                    
Contract 49                $750,000    
Contract 50                $750,000    
Contract 51                $750,000    
                    
                    
                    
Jared Abbrederis    WR    $471,140    $636,140    $726,140    UFA    -
Ricky Collins    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Adrian Coxson    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Mitchell Henry    TE    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Jimmie Hunt    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
James Vaughters    LB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Javess Blue    WR    $436,333    $526,333    $616,334    RFA    -
Alonzo Harris    RB    $436,166    $526,166    $616,168    RFA    -
Bernard Blake    CB    $436,166    $526,166    $616,168    RFA    -
Fabbians Ebbele    T    $435,666    $525,666    $615,668    RFA    -
Josh Francis    ILB    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Harold Spears    TE    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Andy Phillips    T    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Vince Kowalski    RT    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Lane Taylor    G    $587,334    RFA    -    -    -
Andy Mulumba    OLB    $586,667    RFA    -    -    -
Chris Banjo    S    $585,000    RFA    -    -    -
Garth Gerhart    C    $510,000    RFA    -    -    -
Bruce Gaston    DT    $510,000    ERFA    -    -    -
Matt Blanchard    QB    $435,000    RFA    -    -    -
Nate Palmer    OLB    $609,724    $699,724    UFA    -    -
Mike Pennel    DT    $511,166    $601,168    RFA    -    -
Myles White    WR    $510,000    $600,000    RFA    -    -
Jermauria Rasco    DT    $436,666    $526,666    RFA    -    -
Kyle Sebetic    S    $435,000    $525,000    RFA    -    -
Jean Fanor    S    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Jeremy Vujnovich    LT    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Devonta Glover-Wright    CB    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Cody Mandell    P    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Joe Thomas    OLB    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Josh Walker    G    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -

I'd love to see someone make it work without almost completely mortgaging the future with those guys. Cutting and/or restructuring Shields, Burnett, Rodgers, Matthews may be necessary. Without something drastic like that, it's tough to pay up for so many guys on one side of the ball.

 

[vince]

I agree there's a good chance both Lang and Sitton are gone in 2017 and two guys like Tretter and Rotheram step in at guard. I think Bakh and Lacy should be priorities over Lang and Sitton. And as Pike said above, a lot can (and will) happen in the 2 seasons between now and then. One thing's for sure, Sitton and Lang have had a career's worth of banging it in the trenches already - and they have the battle scars to prove it. I'd hate to go all in with those guys and see one or both turn into Marco Rivera after signing a big deal with the Cowboys, or Scott Wells with the Rams, at about the age Lang and Sitton will be in a couple years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You should have noticed that I did not argue that the Packers would need to replace two guards. What I did argue is that if Sitton, Lang and Bakhtiari (all FAs after 2016) continue to play at the same level (or better, perish the thought ) that they're at now and stay relatively healthy, there would be too much cap allocated to the O-Line if all 3 were signed. These will be expensive players, early extensions or not. Signing two out three would be my guess at this very early date.

I know it was PikeBadger suggesting not to re-sign both guards. I agree it would be pretty tough to figure out a way to keep all offensive linemen beyond the 2016 season but losing Sitton and/or Lang (if they're still on top of their game and no replacement has been able to prove himself) would be a tough blow to the unit.

If the starting O-Line can stay healthy in 2015, thereby keeping Barclay off the field in the regular season, he won't be able to pile up many chips going into 2016 free agency. If the Packers are confident his ACL is sound, while other teams would not have that first hand information, the Packers could sign him to fairly inexpensive deal after this season.

It's a lot of ifs, but judging how he played RT, he'd likely make a pretty decent OG come 2017 if the ACL is sound. Or he could take over RT with Bulaga flipping to the left side.

While I like Barclay as the sixth offensive lineman there's no way he should be a projected starter on the team. With Bakhtiari being only 25 years old after the 2016 season I don't see any way the Packers not re-signing him.

I'm not seeing how Sitton, Lang, Bakh, and Lacy can all be re-signed for 2017.

Already GONE are:
J.C. Tretter
Don Barclay
Andrew Quarless
Letroy Guion
Datone Jones
Nick Perry
Julius Peppers
Casey Hayward
Sean Richardson

I'd love to see someone make it work without almost completely mortgaging the future with those guys. Cutting and/or restructuring Shields, Burnett, Rodgers, Matthews may be necessary. Without something drastic like that, it's tough to pay up for so many guys on one side of the ball.

There's no denying it would be awfully tough to re-sign all of them. IMO it's too early to make an educated guess to how the Packers cap situation will have worked out by then.

One thing you haven't included in your projection is the cap space the team will be allowed to roll over from the previous season. As of right now it seems the Packers will enter the 2015 season with approximately $14 million in cap space, so it's possible they will be able to get an additional $10 million cap space for 2016.

Another way to make it work is to structure the contracts in a way that the cap hit increases over the length of the deal. That would especially make sense with Sitton and Lang as the Packers could sweeten a deal with a decent signing bonus but spread out the cap hit by adding seasons to their respective contracts both of them would never see.

I agree there's a good chance both Lang and Sitton are gone in 2017 and two guys like Tretter and Rotheram step in at guard. I think Bakh and Lacy should be priorities over Lang and Sitton. And as Pike said above, a lot can (and will) happen in the 2 seasons between now and then. One thing's for sure, Sitton and Lang have had a career's worth of banging it in the trenches already - and they have the battle scars to prove it. I'd hate to go all in with those guys and see one or both turn into Marco Rivera after signing a big deal with the Cowboys, or Scott Wells with the Rams, at about the age Lang and Sitton will be in a couple years.

To be fair, Rivera was already 33 years old when Thompson let him walk away. And while I like Rotheram as an undrafted free agent his first and most important step is to make the team. Projecting him as an starter two years down the road is way too premature.

 

[vince]

I like Rotheram as an undrafted free agent his first and most important step is to make the team. Projecting him as an starter two years down the road is way too premature.

I didn't count any dead cap space either. The point is that it's easily foreseeable that they're gonna be up tight against the cap regardless and that includes letting a fairly large group of younger guys who do have some value go, like Hayward, Richardson, Perry, Tretter, Barclay...

It comes down to a strong likelihood of making some tough choices among Daniels, Lacy, Bakh, Barrington, Raji, Jones, Perry/Neal, Linsley (right around the corner at that point), Sitton, Lang, Hayward, and others. There's no way they can sign 'em all with what they already have on the books at that point. They have to use 51 guys and the rest of them are all minimum salary guys and rookie deals. That being the case, I'm taking a good hard look at the tread on those two guys' tires - and I'm not sure there'll be enough value given the money and risk.

No idea if Rotheram is the guy. My point is they may very well need someone at or around his price-point to be. They have this year and next to find him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I didn't count any dead cap space either. The point is that it's easily foreseeable that they're gonna be up tight against the cap regardless and that includes letting a fairly large group of younger guys who do have some value go, like Hayward, Richardson, Perry, Tretter, Barclay...

It comes down to a strong likelihood of making some tough choices among Daniels, Lacy, Bakh, Barrington, Raji, Jones, Perry/Neal, Linsley (right around the corner at that point), Sitton, Lang, Hayward, and others. There's no way they can sign 'em all with what they already have on the books at that point. They have to use 51 guys and the rest of them are all minimum salary guys and rookie deals. That being the case, I'm taking a good hard look at the tread on those to guys tires - and I'm not sure there'll be enough value given the money and risk.

The Packers front office has done an excellent job handling the cap and will enter this season with $14 million of cap space. It's true they won't be able to re-sign all of their free agents but the future doesn't look as bleak as you describe it.

 

[vince]

You're an argumentative sort eh WIMM? I never said or implied the future looks bleak at all. On the contrary I think it's incredibly bright.

It's pretty clear though, when you look at already committed deals and who's coming up for new deals, that there are going to be more good players looking for money than the Packers will be able to re-sign absent a big-contract cut or two.

I have the highest confidence that Thompson will make good decisions about who to sign and at what values but that doesn't change the tough decisions they're going to have to make with these players.

The team needs quality, balance over the long term, and a number of guys who outplay their pay on both sides of the ball and, given their existing contracts already on the books, I don't see how they can achieve that while paying 9 of 11 offensive starters big money - with the rest of them right around the corner.

Draft. Develop. Reload with Younger Cheaper Talent. Ted's the best at it as far as I'm concerned which is good because he's going to be tested like never before as Rodgers moves through the prime of his career.

 

[PikeBadger]

I'm not seeing how Sitton, Lang, Bakh, and Lacy can all be re-signed for 2017.

Blow are the cap hits by year for all Packer players sourced from Spotrac. It's hard to read but 2017 is the 3rd salary listed. I've made some projections that may or may not be accurate, but at minimum, the cap space that the roster spot which would replace some of the guys listed will be similar in size. This would appear to be a optimistic scenario given re-signing those four offensive players.

Here's what it looks like with those four re-signed for 2017.

Offense - 22 players - $90 million
Defense - 23 players - $75 million
ST - 3 players - $5 million
Final Contracts to get Top 51 - 3 players - $1.5 million

Total - $171.5 million

Over the Cap projects the 2017 cap to be $160 million.

Already GONE are:
J.C. Tretter
Don Barclay
Andrew Quarless
Letroy Guion
Datone Jones
Nick Perry
Julius Peppers
Casey Hayward
Sean Richardson

PLAYER    POS.    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019
Aaron Rodgers    QB    $18,250,000    $19,250,000    $20,300,000    $20,900,000    $21,100,000
Brett Hundley    QB    $490,908    $580,908    $670,908    $760,908    UFA
Scott Tolzien    QB    $1,200,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
Randall Cobb    WR    $5,350,000    $9,150,000    $12,750,000    $12,750,000    UFA
Jordy Nelson    WR    $4,600,000    $8,800,000    $11,550,000    $12,550,000    UFA
Davante Adams    WR    $893,955    $1,072,746    $1,251,537    UFA    -
Ty Montgomery    WR    $586,636    $693,386    $788,636    $880,137    UFA
Jeff Janis    WR    $522,848    $612,848    $702,848    UFA    -
Larry Pinkard    WR    $436,000    $526,000    $616,000    RFA    -
                   
Eddie Lacy    RB    $925,203    $1,079,404    $7,000,000    -    -
Rajoin Neal    RB    $435,000    $525,000    $1,000,000    -    -
John Crockett    RB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Aaron Ripkowski    FB    $461,599    $551,599    $641,599    $731,599    UFA
James Starks    RB    $1,837,500    UFA    GONE    -    -
John Kuhn    FB    $635,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
Bryan Bulaga    RT    $3,568,750    $5,600,000    $7,850,000    $8,350,000    $8,350,000
Josh Sitton    G    $7,000,000    $6,600,000    $7,000,000    -    -
David Bakhtiari    LT    $698,850    $788,850    $7,000,000    -    -
T.J. Lang    G    $5,800,000    $6,200,000    $6,000,000    -    -
Corey Linsley    C    $556,250    $646,250    $736,250    UFA    -
Matt Rotheram    G    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Back-up Tackle                $750,000   
J.C. Tretter    C    $688,977    $778,977    GONE    -    -
Don Barclay    RT    $1,542,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
Richard Rodgers    TE    $649,004    $739,004    $826,504    UFA    -
Kennard Backman    TE    $457,621    $547,621    $637,621    $727,624    UFA
Justin Perillo    TE    $510,000    ERFA    $750,000    -    -
Andrew Quarless    TE    $1,750,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
                   
Mike Daniels    DE    $1,617,146    UFA    $7,000,000    -    -
B.J. Raji    DE    $1,750,000    UFA    $4,000,000    -    -
Christian Ringo    DE    $457,621    $547,621    $637,621    $727,621    UFA
Josh Boyd    DT    $621,140    $711,140    $750,000    -    -
Khyri Thornton    DT    $673,813    $763,813    $855,813    UFA    -
Lavon Hooks    DT    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Letroy Guion    DT    $2,750,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
Datone Jones    DE    $2,104,525    $2,455,280    GONE    -    -
                   
Jayrone Elliot    EL    $511,666    $601,668    $2,000,000    -    -
Adrian Hubbard    EL    $435,000    $525,000    $1,000,000    -    -
Michael Neal    EL    $4,250,000    UFA    $4,000,000    -    -
Nick Perry    EL    $2,386,125    UFA    GONE    -    -
Julius Peppers    EL    $12,000,000    $10,500,000    GONE    -    -
Clay Matthews    LB    $12,700,000    $13,750,000    $15,200,000    $11,400,000    UFA
Sam Barrington    ILB    $597,250    $687,250    $4,000,000    -    -
Jake Ryan    ILB    $549,169    $639,169    $729,169    $819,169    UFA
Carl Bradford    ILB    $617,325    $707,325    $797,325    UFA    -
Tavarus Dantzler    ILB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
                   
Sam Shields    CB    $9,062,500    $12,125,000    $12,125,000    UFA    -
Damarious Randall    CB    $1,439,224    $1,799,030    $2,158,836    $2,518,643    UFA
Quinten Rollins    CB    $680,466    $850,583    $1,020,699    $1,190,818    UFA
Demetri Goodson    CB    $535,788    $625,788    $715,788    UFA    -
LaDarius Gunter    CB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Casey Hayward    CB    $1,053,154    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
Morgan Burnett    S    $5,131,250    $6,050,000    $7,000,000    UFA    -
Micah Hyde    S    $629,527    $719,527    $6,000,000    -    -
HaHa Clinton-Dix    S    $1,895,114    $2,274,137    $2,653,159    UFA    -
Back-up Safety                $750,000   
Sean Richardson    S    $2,550,000    UFA    GONE    -    -
                   
Mason Crosby    K    $3,550,000    UFA    $3,000,000    -    -
Tim Masthay    P    $1,340,000    $1,540,000    $2,000,000    -    -
Brett Goode    LS    $976,250    UFA    $600,000    -    -
                   
Contract 49                $750,000   
Contract 50                $750,000   
Contract 51                $750,000   
                   
                   
                   
Jared Abbrederis    WR    $471,140    $636,140    $726,140    UFA    -
Ricky Collins    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Adrian Coxson    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Mitchell Henry    TE    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Jimmie Hunt    WR    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
James Vaughters    LB    $436,666    $526,666    $616,668    RFA    -
Javess Blue    WR    $436,333    $526,333    $616,334    RFA    -
Alonzo Harris    RB    $436,166    $526,166    $616,168    RFA    -
Bernard Blake    CB    $436,166    $526,166    $616,168    RFA    -
Fabbians Ebbele    T    $435,666    $525,666    $615,668    RFA    -
Josh Francis    ILB    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Harold Spears    TE    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Andy Phillips    T    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Vince Kowalski    RT    $435,000    $525,000    $615,000    RFA    -
Lane Taylor    G    $587,334    RFA    -    -    -
Andy Mulumba    OLB    $586,667    RFA    -    -    -
Chris Banjo    S    $585,000    RFA    -    -    -
Garth Gerhart    C    $510,000    RFA    -    -    -
Bruce Gaston    DT    $510,000    ERFA    -    -    -
Matt Blanchard    QB    $435,000    RFA    -    -    -
Nate Palmer    OLB    $609,724    $699,724    UFA    -    -
Mike Pennel    DT    $511,166    $601,168    RFA    -    -
Myles White    WR    $510,000    $600,000    RFA    -    -
Jermauria Rasco    DT    $436,666    $526,666    RFA    -    -
Kyle Sebetic    S    $435,000    $525,000    RFA    -    -
Jean Fanor    S    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Jeremy Vujnovich    LT    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Devonta Glover-Wright    CB    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Cody Mandell    P    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Joe Thomas    OLB    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -
Josh Walker    G    $435,000    $525,000    ERFA    -    -

I'd love to see someone make it work without almost completely mortgaging the future with those guys. Cutting and/or restructuring Shields, Burnett, Rodgers, Matthews may be necessary. Without something drastic like that, it's tough to pay up for so many guys on one side of the ball.

Your numbers are too high for 2017. You haven't taken into account that we'll have new 10-12 rookies on the roster in both 2016 and 2017. They in some cases will be replacing medium/high priced vets.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's pretty clear though, when you look at already committed deals and who's coming up for new deals, that there are going to be more good players looking for money than the Packers will be able to re-sign absent a big-contract cut or two.

I have the highest confidence that Thompson will make good decisions about who to sign and at what values but that doesn't change the tough decisions they're going to have to make with these players.

The team needs quality, balance over the long term, and a number of guys who outplay their pay on both sides of the ball and, given their existing contracts already on the books, I don't see how they can achieve that while paying 9 of 11 offensive starters big money - with the rest of them right around the corner.

Draft. Develop. Reload with Younger Cheaper Talent. Ted's the best at it as far as I'm concerned which is good because he's going to be tested like never before as Rodgers moves through the prime of his career.

I totally agree (as mentioned above) the Packers won't be able to hold on to all of their pending free agents over the next two years. I trust Thompson to find a way to bring back more of those guys than you anticipate though.

 

[TJV]

I’m not sure what it means that we’re discussing the OL in the 2017 season. Perhaps it’s a collective residual - now unconscious - worry about the OL requiring an outlet? Or perhaps it’s just the 'deadest' of dead times in the offseason. I’ve gotta say I’m looking forward to the problem of keeping the current starting OL intact for the 2017 season because that will likely mean they were all mostly healthy for 2015 and 2016 and after years of very conscious worry about the OL I’m looking forward to seeing how good this OL can be for the next two seasons. If they play like they did over the last half of last season and if Rodgers is healthy, great things are in store for the offense. The saying, 'make hay while the sun shines' comes to mind.

I linked the Packers Notes story Hoarding Money for 2017 previously on this thread (http://packersnotes.com/2015/06/packers-hoarding-money-for-2017/) and Rodney makes the point that the Packers have about $15M in cap space and only one must-sign UFA coming up next season in Daniels – and perhaps Hayward depending upon how this season plays out. So he says don’t be surprised if that number doesn’t go down much in the meantime and don’t be surprised if more than that is available to roll into 2017. But a lot can happen in the next two seasons: A single play can change a player's fortunes - even a team’s season - so 2017 is far away in NFL terms.

In spite of what a very few misguided Packers fans believe (no one on this thread) Thompson has had a firm handle on the Packers salary cap situation since he arrived. He fixed it quickly after arriving as GM and has that surplus available to roll into the upcoming seasons in spite of securing the services of the best player in the league through the 2019 season. Draft, develop, and keep the core of the team intact has been his mantra. The more core players there are, the tougher it is to keep them. But it's a good problem to have.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Post-2015 FAs include:

Daniels, Raji, Guion, Hayward, Perry, Neal, Richardson, Starks, Quarless (if he makes it that far), Kuhn, Barclay and Crosby.

If the defense plays well, which means most of those defensive players play well, then about $30 mil in available cap space can shirk awfully quickly without leaving a lot of carryover for 2017.

Of the top 13 offensive players in 3-wide/2-back/2-TE sets, only Quarless and Kuhn are unsigned for 2016.
If those defensive players (and Richardson as a core ST guy) don't do well in 2015, they'll get cheaper contracts in-line with questionable performances or will be let go, meaning the 2016 offense, never likely to be in such a prime position again given the talent, experience and age of those players, will be at risk of being squandered in a defensive retooling year. It would stand to reason Thompson would go some ways in stretching to keep "his guys" who play adequately or better in 2015 to keep the train on the tracks. But that would quickly diminish the cap carryover to 2017.

Neal's last contract is instructive. $8 mil over 2 years. overthecap.com shows his yearly average under that deal as the 11th. highest among 3-4 DEs, above average among league starters (even if his current position is somewhat mis-characterized). That's a lot of dough for a guy who had not shown much, was dropping weight faster than Oprah in a steam bath, got himself suspended for PEDs the previous season, and was switching positions kinda sorta. The fact Neal was a home-grown (or shall we say "home-shrinking") second round pick doesn't seem to account for it. Thompson's evaluation of the depth chart would go some ways in explaining it. Based on what we know, why would post-2015 be much different among several of the aforementioned FA players, considering the current defensive depth chart past the front-liners populated by guys who have been inauspicious in spot play or have never taken a snap?

You can't have it all ways. If 2015 is successful, with solid defensive play, cap must be expended to retain some or most of those defensive players leaving a modest carryover amount for 2017. If the defense sucks in 2015, then there will be lots of cap for 2017 as those players depart and not much in the way of continuity and talent. That assumes Thompson will not dip into defensive free agency to prevent that 2016 offense from being squandered.

Then the 2017 FA class gets more concerning:

Start with Lacy.

Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari and Tretter (with Barclay a FA after 2015 as noted above). That's 3 of 5 starters in one year, along with the leading replacement candidates at this juncture over 2 years.

Then we have Peppers likely needing to be replaced, if he hasn't been already by that time, with his contract expiring in 2016. Thompson's attempts at finding edge rushers (and Peppers is more than just that) in lower rounds has not been auspicious, and the 1st. round has been mixed. This could require some significant FA money as with Peppers himself.

Also hitting FA in 2017, there's D. Jones and Boyd. Regardless of what one thinks of these players, the top 5 in the current D-Line rotation will be free agents in 2016 and 2017. Again, if they play well they get paid. Or they play and get too expensive or they stink and have to be replaced in either case.

It doesn't stop there.

Also hitting free agency in 2017 are Hyde (a generally under-appreciated player in my book). Maybe Rollins makes him expendable. Maybe not.

Barrington will be a FA after 2016.

It's easy to isolate one particular player and come up with a satisfactory 2017 scenario for that position. But for sheer quantity and quality, this is a daunting list of players to be addressed over the next two years. Banking on cap savings and cap expansion is simply not enough to make 2017's roster a #1 projection anything more than a highly speculative (and rosy) scenario.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And I initially forgot to include Lacy in the above! Who else did I miss, as if these names are not enough.