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Message: <blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 618138" data-attributes="member: 7277">Let's assume that kicking a PAT now offers an expected .95 points per try (pretty conservative estimate, consider that these are all lined up straight between the hashmarks.  All kicks from 30-35 in the middle of the field were converted at a 97.6% rate the last 2 seasons.)  Going for 2 offers about .99 points per try.  The .04 variation means about 25 TDs will need to be scored to make 1 point of difference.  It's about a 2-3 point difference over the course of a season.Given the risk to momentum that I had pointed out I can't see most coaches changing their ways to chase 2-3 more points per season.  Coaches are generally risk averse.   I don't think this rule will change coaches much yet, as the variation is just so small that on some teams depending on the goalline offense and kicker it'll actually swing the other way.    If they were snapping from the 25, absolutely. If we can find enough consistency to convert this at better than 50%, I'm all for it.  However in recent history we have not had as much success as we should have going for 2.</blockquote>

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