Okay let's have a discussion about realistic mocking and what players we should be able to eliminate...

[tynimiller]

So we see it every year and hear about it often...."We should pick or I picked with our first rounder late Aidan Hutchinson...." LOL

Let's break down the players that are nearly a lock or concensus well before we have a shot at them without a trade option...

THE OBVIOUS ONES
Kyle Hamilton S
Aidan Hutchinson EDGE
Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE
Jermaine Johnson EDGE
Travon Walker EDGE
Ahmad Gardner CB
Derek Stingley Jr CB
Evan Neal OT
Ikem Ekwonu

That is 9 guys that nearly every scout, teams and rumors you hear should easily be gone Top 20 if not Top 10.

THE MOST LIKELY GONE
*At least 1 QB minimum will be gone by the 21st pick
Andrew Booth CB
Tyler Linderbaum iOL
Charles Cross OT
Trent McDuffie CB

That would put us at 14 picks gone...

LIKELY GONE
Zion Johnson iOL
*Atleast one of the twoevonte Wyatt iDL or Jordan Davis iDL
*Atleast two maybe three of the WRs: London, Olave, Burks, Wilson, Dotson
*One of the two: Nakobe Dean and Devin Lloyd

This would put us at 19 or 20 picks....leaving us with the best left out of:

Who wasn't picked between:
Wyatt and Davis iDLs
London, Olave, Burks, Wilson, Dotson WRs
Dean or Lloyd ILBs

AND some of the best left IMO to name a few:

George Karlaftis EDGE (can slide down inside with ease)
Kaiir Elam CB
Trevor Penning OT
Kenyon Green iOL
Daxton Hill S
DeMarvin Leal iDL
Perrion Winfrey iDL
Roger McCreary CB

Obviously IMO if any of the those top guys (19-20) should fall to our pick at 22 (other than one of the ILB and possible a iOL) ANY of them I would completely understand Gute picking them without hesitation.

Some ask why I've not mocked say Cross to us at 28...its because it isn't happening and even if a mock engine does something fluky and he or Kayvon is there I'm not doing it as it isn't even within reason IMO.

 

[Dantés]

Some more data from a different angle, all since 2012 (when Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting):

In the 1st round:

-QB: 1
-RB: 0
-TE: 0
-WR: 0
-OT: 0
-iOL: 0
-iDL: 2
-ED: 2
-LB: 0
-S: 2
-CB: 3

Sub 8.0 RAS:

-Clinton-Dix
-Clark (just barely)

I think that the RAS trend is meaningful-- they like high end athletes.

I think the positional trends are partially meaningful. I don't think they want to take RB, TE, iOL, or LB with premium picks. OT would be coincidental, because of the personnel that's been here over the past few seasons. WR I think is most a function of who has been available to them in recent seasons.

Given the trends and the needs of the roster, I would be looking at 8+ RAS athletes at WR, OT, iDL, and ED. And if they pencil in Elgton as the future at RT, then probably just WR, iDL, and ED.

Specially at OT and iDL, RAS not as meaningful as particular metrics (e.g. agility metrics for the OL).

So if I was putting together a watch list of guys who might be there, it would feature:

-Drake London, WR, USC (pending RAS)
-Chris Olave, WR, OSU
-George Pickens, WR, UGA

-Devonte Wyatt, iDL, UGA
-Travis Jones, iDL, UCONN
-Logan Hall, iDL, Houston

-George Karlaftis, ED, PUR
-David Ojabo, ED, UM
-Boye Mafe, ED, MINN
-Arnold Ebikeitie, ED, PSU
-Nik Bonitto, ED, UO
-Sam Williams, ED, MISS

-Trevor Penning, OT, UNI
-Charles Cross, OT, MSU
-Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
-Bernhard Raimann, OT, UCM

 

[tynimiller]

Some more data from a different angle, all since 2012 (when Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting):

In the 1st round:

-QB: 1
-RB: 0
-TE: 0
-WR: 0
-OT: 0
-iOL: 0
-iDL: 2
-ED: 2
-LB: 0
-S: 2
-CB: 3

Sub 8.0 RAS:

-Clinton-Dix
-Clark (just barely)

I think that the RAS trend is meaningful-- they like high end athletes.

I think the positional trends are partially meaningful. I don't think they want to take RB, TE, iOL, or LB with premium picks. OT would be coincidental, because of the personnel that's been here over the past few seasons. WR I think is most a function of who has been available to them in recent seasons.

Given the trends and the needs of the roster, I would be looking at 8+ RAS athletes at WR, OT, iDL, and ED. And if they pencil in Elgton as the future at RT, then probably just WR, iDL, and ED.

Specially at OT and iDL, RAS not as meaningful as particular metrics (e.g. agility metrics for the OL).

So if I was putting together a watch list of guys who might be there, it would feature:

-Drake London, WR, USC (pending RAS)
-Chris Olave, WR, OSU
-George Pickens, WR, UGA

-Devonte Wyatt, iDL, UGA
-Travis Jones, iDL, UCONN
-Logan Hall, iDL, Houston

-George Karlaftis, ED, PUR
-David Ojabo, ED, UM
-Boye Mafe, ED, MINN
-Arnold Ebikeitie, ED, PSU
-Nik Bonitto, ED, UO
-Sam Williams, ED, MISS

-Trevor Penning, OT, UNI
-Charles Cross, OT, MSU
-Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
-Bernhard Raimann, OT, UCM

I 100% agree but would also add Safeties and CBs, because we learned last year how valuable it is and also the Rollins, Randall , Jackson and such picks confirm it as well.

So the few that might fall or be there that I'd add to the "likely list" you gave and I agree with!

Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Jaquan Brisker S, Penn State

*Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
**Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson


*Elam ran a stinking sub 4.4 so I suspect if he does the pertinent items to craft a RAS for a CB he will break the 8.00 threshold.
**Booth has a core muscle injury so he won't have the numbers and teams will have to speculate or study film to attempt to capture whether they feel he meets that threshhold.

 

[Dantés]

I 100% agree but would also add Safeties and CBs, because we learned last year how valuable it is and also the Rollins, Randall , Jackson and such picks confirm it as well.

So the few that might fall or be there that I'd add to the "likely list" you gave and I agree with!

Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Jaquan Brisker S, Penn State

*Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
**Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson


*Elam ran a stinking sub 4.4 so I suspect if he does the pertinent items to craft a RAS for a CB he will break the 8.00 threshold.
**Booth has a core muscle injury so he won't have the numbers and teams will have to speculate or study film to attempt to capture whether they feel he meets that threshhold.

With the top 5 DB's locked in, I doubt they spend the 1st rounders on the positions. Anything is possible, but I'm largely ignoring those spots.

 

[Todd Princl]

With the top 5 DB's locked in, I doubt they spend the 1st rounders on the positions. Anything is possible, but I'm largely ignoring those spots.

But can we ignore the safety spot? Both are free agents after next season. And I have to believe that Savage is on shaky ground. Not much depth either behind the two. They could look look at possibly drafting a safety/corner combo who could get some meaningful minutes.

 

[OldSchool101]

But can we ignore the safety spot? Both are free agents after next season. And I have to believe that Savage is on shaky ground. Not much depth either behind the two. They could look look at possibly drafting a safety/corner combo who could get some meaningful minutes.

We don’t have to ignore Safety, but do you use a #22 and bench him? Or bench Savage? Not this season. There will be plenty of good options outside Round 1 to get a Safety to groom for the future.

One thing I would like to see us do this season is draft someone that will get significant snaps on essentially Day1.

That would mean OL and WR would be on top of my Round 1 priority list. So much so, I might trade up into that Buffalo (25) or Tennessee (26) spot to get that starter. If I have to pass at those 2 positions because a stellar player was sliding hard, I’m getting aggressive using #53 and #59 in a possible trade up (or two)

 

[Big L]

So we see it every year and hear about it often...."We should pick or I picked with our first rounder late Aidan Hutchinson...." LOL

Let's break down the players that are nearly a lock or concensus well before we have a shot at them without a trade option...

THE OBVIOUS ONES
Kyle Hamilton S
Aidan Hutchinson EDGE
Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE
Jermaine Johnson EDGE
Travon Walker EDGE
Ahmad Gardner CB
Derek Stingley Jr CB
Evan Neal OT
Ikem Ekwonu

That is 9 guys that nearly every scout, teams and rumors you hear should easily be gone Top 20 if not Top 10.

THE MOST LIKELY GONE
*At least 1 QB minimum will be gone by the 21st pick
Andrew Booth CB
Tyler Linderbaum iOL
Charles Cross OT
Trent McDuffie CB

That would put us at 14 picks gone...

LIKELY GONE
Zion Johnson iOL
*Atleast one of the twoevonte Wyatt iDL or Jordan Davis iDL
*Atleast two maybe three of the WRs: London, Olave, Burks, Wilson, Dotson
*One of the two: Nakobe Dean and Devin Lloyd

This would put us at 19 or 20 picks....leaving us with the best left out of:

Who wasn't picked between:
Wyatt and Davis iDLs
London, Olave, Burks, Wilson, Dotson WRs
Dean or Lloyd ILBs

AND some of the best left IMO to name a few:

George Karlaftis EDGE (can slide down inside with ease)
Kaiir Elam CB
Trevor Penning OT
Kenyon Green iOL
Daxton Hill S
DeMarvin Leal iDL
Perrion Winfrey iDL
Roger McCreary CB

Obviously IMO if any of the those top guys (19-20) should fall to our pick at 22 (other than one of the ILB and possible a iOL) ANY of them I would completely understand Gute picking them without hesitation.

Some ask why I've not mocked say Cross to us at 28...its because it isn't happening and even if a mock engine does something fluky and he or Kayvon is there I'm not doing it as it isn't even within reason IMO.

Cross will not be there at 22

 

[tynimiller]

Cross will not be there at 22

Which is why he was listed as one to be gone....

 

[Dantés]

But can we ignore the safety spot? Both are free agents after next season. And I have to believe that Savage is on shaky ground. Not much depth either behind the two. They could look look at possibly drafting a safety/corner combo who could get some meaningful minutes.

No way they can ignore it.

I’m just saying that I’d be surprised if they took a DB in round 1 just given that there wouldn’t be a path to much playing time in year one short of injury.

I’m not against it. Just not expecting it. Round 2 on, I think it’s very likely.

 

[DoURant]

WR Jameson Williams could be added... regardless that he's injured. If he wasn't, he would be WR1 in this draft, and a lot of "experts" still think he may go top 15. Plus, WR Christian Watson, even though I don't feel he should go in Rd 1, he could come into play at #28

 

[wist43]

WR Jameson Williams could be added... regardless that he's injured. If he wasn't, he would be WR1 in this draft, and a lot of "experts" still think he may go top 15. Plus, WR Christian Watson, even though I don't feel he should go in Rd 1, he could come into play at #28

Agree.

 

[wist43]

Some more data from a different angle, all since 2012 (when Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting):

In the 1st round:

-QB: 1
-RB: 0
-TE: 0
-WR: 0
-OT: 0
-iOL: 0
-iDL: 2
-ED: 2
-LB: 0
-S: 2
-CB: 3

Sub 8.0 RAS:

-Clinton-Dix
-Clark (just barely)

I think that the RAS trend is meaningful-- they like high end athletes.

I think the positional trends are partially meaningful. I don't think they want to take RB, TE, iOL, or LB with premium picks. OT would be coincidental, because of the personnel that's been here over the past few seasons. WR I think is most a function of who has been available to them in recent seasons.

Given the trends and the needs of the roster, I would be looking at 8+ RAS athletes at WR, OT, iDL, and ED. And if they pencil in Elgton as the future at RT, then probably just WR, iDL, and ED.

Specially at OT and iDL, RAS not as meaningful as particular metrics (e.g. agility metrics for the OL).

So if I was putting together a watch list of guys who might be there, it would feature:

-Drake London, WR, USC (pending RAS)
-Chris Olave, WR, OSU
-George Pickens, WR, UGA

-Devonte Wyatt, iDL, UGA
-Travis Jones, iDL, UCONN
-Logan Hall, iDL, Houston

-George Karlaftis, ED, PUR
-David Ojabo, ED, UM
-Boye Mafe, ED, MINN
-Arnold Ebikeitie, ED, PSU
-Nik Bonitto, ED, UO
-Sam Williams, ED, MISS

-Trevor Penning, OT, UNI
-Charles Cross, OT, MSU
-Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
-Bernhard Raimann, OT, UCM

From that list, my guess would be..


Penning, Wyatt, and Cross will all be gone. Pickens might be gone.

Ojabo will drop for sure. Bonitto is more likely to go early 3rd rd. Ebikeitie is a day 2 pick. Same thing with Travis Jones.

 

[Big L]

Gone by 22 or very likely

Hutchinson Edge Michigan
Walker DL Georgia
Thibodeaux Edge Oregon
Gardner CB Cincy
Neal OT Alabama
Ekwonu OT NC State
Johnson II Edge Florida St
Wilson WR Ohio St
Lloyd LB Utah
Hamilton S Notre Dame
Davis DL Georgia
Penning OT N. Iowa
Cross OT Miss St
Stingley CB LSU
London WR USC
Olave WR Ohio St
Linderbaum C Iowa

That’s 17 players

I would be very surprised if more then two of the above 17 are on the board at 22

A big factor in all of this is how many if any of the following go before 22 - Karlaftis Edge Purdue, any of the QBs, corners - Booth, McDuffie and Gordon, Green G/C from Texas AM and Dean LB from Georgia

Most likely Packer options sitting at 22 and 28

Williams WR Alabama (but he is progressing nicely from the knee injury so he could be gone)

Wyatt DL Georgia
Dean LB Georgia
Ojabo Edge Michigan
Karlaftis Edge Purdue
McDuffie CB Wash
Dotson Wr Penn St
Burks WR Arkansas
Mafe Edge Minnesota
Elam CB Florida
Brisker S Penn St (Packers in Love)
Gordon CB Wash
McCreary CB Auburn
Hill S Michigan
Z Johnson G/T Boston College (he should be a middle first rounder - he is that good!)
Pitre S/CB Baylor

In my opinion, you do what is needed to get your guy with that first pick and unless a player or two falls into your lap at 28, you move back a bit into round two and still get a really good player and a additional pick. But I would not settle for anything less then a high third and preferably a second or third this year and next to move back 8-10 spots

 

[Big L]

Gone by 22 or very likely

Hutchinson Edge Michigan
Walker DL Georgia
Thibodeaux Edge Oregon
Gardner CB Cincy
Neal OT Alabama
Ekwonu OT NC State
Johnson II Edge Florida St
Wilson WR Ohio St
Lloyd LB Utah
Hamilton S Notre Dame
Davis DL Georgia
Penning OT N. Iowa
Cross OT Miss St
Stingley CB LSU
London WR USC
Olave WR Ohio St
Linderbaum C Iowa

That’s 17 players

I would be very surprised if more then two of the above 17 are on the board at 22

A big factor in all of this is how many if any of the following go before 22 - Karlaftis Edge Purdue, any of the QBs, corners - Booth, McDuffie and Gordon, Green G/C from Texas AM and Dean LB from Georgia

Most likely Packer options sitting at 22 and 28

Williams WR Alabama (but he is progressing nicely from the knee injury so he could be gone)

Wyatt DL Georgia
Dean LB Georgia
Ojabo Edge Michigan
Karlaftis Edge Purdue
McDuffie CB Wash
Dotson Wr Penn St
Burks WR Arkansas
Mafe Edge Minnesota
Elam CB Florida
Brisker S Penn St (Packers in Love)
Gordon CB Wash
McCreary CB Auburn
Hill S Michigan
Z Johnson G/T Boston College (he should be a middle first rounder - he is that good!)
Pitre S/CB Baylor

In my opinion, you do what is needed to get your guy with that first pick and unless a player or two falls into your lap at 28, you move back a bit into round two and still get a really good player and a additional pick. But I would not settle for anything less then a high third and preferably a second or third this year and next to move back 8-10 spots

I really think the Packers should do what they can - within reason of course to grab the TE from Colorado St! Also, don’t be surprised if they acquire an additional high third or lower second rounder, if a certain former Badger LB ends up wearing the green and gold

 

[Todd Princl]

No way they can ignore it.

I’m just saying that I’d be surprised if they took a DB in round 1 just given that there wouldn’t be a path to much playing time in year one short of injury.

I’m not against it. Just not expecting it. Round 2 on, I think it’s very likely.

The closer we get I am thinking that this draft at the top will be fueled in beefing up the offense. Now we could get an edge rusher at 28, or we could package a second and a third to move up higher in the second. I am expecting three offensive players and one on defense with our first four picks. Aaron knows something we don’t know, and he seems pretty onboard with the homework that Gute and company have scripted.

 

[Todd Princl]

I really think the Packers should do what they can - within reason of course to grab the TE from Colorado St! Also, don’t be surprised if they acquire an additional high third or lower second rounder, if a certain former Badger LB ends up wearing the green and gold

I am with you on Trey McBride. He could be our Mark Andrews!!

 

[DoURant]

I really think the Packers should do what they can - within reason of course to grab the TE from Colorado St! Also, don’t be surprised if they acquire an additional high third or lower second rounder, if a certain former Badger LB ends up wearing the green and gold

I feel TE should definitely be addressed, I'm just not sure who I prefer yet. I was listening to a podcast the other day, and when they were talking about the TE class, it almost sounded like many of the guys in this class are injured, didn't test well, etc. That being said, it wouldn't shock me if they took one in Rd 2 or 3.

 

[tynimiller]

I feel TE should definitely be addressed, I'm just not sure who I prefer yet. I was listening to a podcast the other day, and when they were talking about the TE class, it almost sounded like many of the guys in this class are injured, didn't test well, etc. That being said, it wouldn't shock me if they took one in Rd 2 or 3.

It isn’t a strong TE class but a deep one at types, but sadly only one or two guys would I say are all around TEs presently. McBride and Likely are the biggest offensive weapon for receiving and need to work on being better blockers and in-line threats - where then guy like Ruckert is more all around but is like a 7 out of ten in every category so not amazing in any besides his blocking chops.

TE is not a massive hole presently as we sit at five rostered tight ends with experience in Lewis, Tonyan, Deguara, Dafney, Davis

 

[Poppa San]

Cross will not be there at 22

And in 2005 neither was Aaron Rodgers. Someone slides every year. Sometimes a "top 10" goes in round 2.

 

[OldSchool101]

And in 2005 neither was Aaron Rodgers. Someone slides every year. Sometimes a "top 10" goes in round 2.

I’ve seen several Mocks with Cross going in the latter Day 1 area. He’s one of those who could go top 10..or top 30. I definitely would not eliminate him as we have plenty of firepower to move into the teens if needed.
Wilson might be the only true untouchable at WR, going to Atlanta (8) or WFT (11) We won’t trade that high for WR imo.

 

[OldSchool101]

Some ask why I've not mocked say Cross to us at 28...its because it isn't happening and even if a mock engine does something fluky and he or Kayvon is there I'm not doing it as it isn't even within reason IMO.

It’s going to be hard to sit Pat with all our draft firepower. We might just be thinking coming out of Rounds 1-3 with 3 Solid. We have immense firepower if we packaged a 2-4th rounder once or twice and just nailed 4 solid players before Day 3.

If we get some help we should conceivably see 2QB go top-20. There’s 2-3 more in that top 40 range that could move into the back of Round 1.
Seattle and the Lions are both QB needy.

It might be very wise to move up into the teens with #22 (WR)
Then recoup those assets by trading #28 back into the top-40 area.

 

[Poppa San]

It’s going to be hard to sit Pat with all our draft firepower. We might just be thinking coming out of Rounds 1-3 with 3 Solid. We have immense firepower if we packaged a 2-4th rounder once or twice and just nailed 4 solid players before Day 3.

If we get some help we should conceivably see 2QB go top-20. There’s 2-3 more in that top 40 range that could move into the back of Round 1.
Seattle and the Lions are both QB needy.

It might be very wise to move up into the teens with #22 (WR)
Then recoup those assets by trading #28 back into the top-40 area.

I could see flipping both 1sts for Baltimore's 1 & 2. Low teens both rounds. Also Detroit is already sitting on #32 & #34. I doubt they move up. Actually they have enough holes to flip #2 to Philly for all three of their firsts and swap 2nds. More arrows in the quiver as it were.

 

[Big L]

And in 2005 neither was Aaron Rodgers. Someone slides every year. Sometimes a "top 10" goes in round 2.

Well of course, but you have to make projections

 

[Poppa San]

Well of course, but you have to make projections

I remember this every time someone posts that Player Z is definitely going to be gone and list more than a handful of others as well.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

Gut is most likely going to be very aggressive in this draft, and will Not hesitate to trade down since he has a 2-3 year window to win a SB.

Heavily be looking at getting Stars and starters followed by depth.