Nearly Perfect Draft...

[OldSchool101]

K.C. Moves up to and trades w/GB
#30, #63, #95, #168
For
#23, #87, #123, #200
GB uses #95 in a trade with Miami’s #115, #135, #194

The GB Packers select:
#30 Derrick Harmon, DT
#54 Princely Umanmielen, Edge
#63 Jack Bech, WR
#115 Jacob Parrish, CB
#135 Hollin Pierce, OT
#160 Kobe King, LB
#168 Jackson Hawes, TE
#194 Jordan Hancock, CB

#198
7th,7th

 

[gopkrs]

I guess we lose all control at the end of the season. But we would like him to be on our bench if we're going to the playoffs. So unless somebody makes an offer we can't refuse; I would say we keep him. Imho unless he really gets showcased early in the regular season; nobody is gonna give us what he is potentially worth to us

 

[Thirteen Below]

K.C. Moves up to and trades w/GB
#30, #63, #95, #168
For
#23, #87, #123, #200
GB uses #95 in a trade with Miami’s #115, #135, #194

The GB Packers select:
#30 Derrick Harmon, DT
#54 Princely Umanmielen, Edge
#63 Jack Bech, WR
#115 Jacob Parrish, CB
#135 Hollin Pierce, OT
#160 Kobe King, LB
#168 Jackson Hawes, TE
#194 Jordan Hancock, CB

Wow, you put some thought into that... way beyond my abilities, that's for damned sure.

But is the math right? Because right now we have 8 picks.... if we trade 4 picks for 4 other picks, we still have 8.

We trade 1 of those picks away, we now have 7 picks.

But in return for that 1 pick, we get 3 back. So now we should have 10, right?

Why are we drafting only 8 players? Gutekunst is starting to get self-conscious about hoarding so many players, and wants to be a good host?

 

[Voyageur]

Interesting. I like the trade back out of round 1 for more picks.

Trading Willis is risky. I'd feel better if they could add someone better than Leonard. Actually, I'd feel better if they just keep Willis. I'm not overly concerned that Love is an injury risk, but stuff happens. If this is a team with a legit shot at a SB run, better to keep Willis for insurance.

I really like Higgins. 6'4" and 215 lbs. He'll bulk up in the NFL a bit.

Really hope Tuimoloau is there at #54.

Keeping JA is becoming a more popular idea around here. Fans are too emotional when it comes to JA, mostly pissed that a guy who costs so much plays so little. But that's backward looking. He should be healthy after the knee surgery. And when healthy, he's a shutdown corner. So yeah, Gluten keeps him.

I've pretty much reached a point where I believe that most teams realize that if the #1 QB goes down, so does the season. The money needed to keep an extremely reliable backup is too high in today's market, because there's always teams looking for that guy who just might become their next franchise QB.

The question is, has Willis shown this potential in his time with the Packers? It's not a question of how much of it we believe, but how desperate and needy is some team going into a season. I'd ask the question, "Who are the 5 worst starting QBs in the NFL, and how bad is their draft picks this year?" It might not make sense, but if they haven't got a shot at a good one in the draft and have Tweedle Dee & Tweedle Dum as the two guys on their roster, what do they intend doing to give their team a better chance of winning games?

For both GMs and Head Coaches, job security comes through winning football games. Owners and fans do not want to hear something from the people running the team that it's going to take 5 years of getting your rears knocked off to get into a position where you're competitive. When we see coaches get 4- or 5-year contracts, we all know the vast majority of them are sent packing if they don't have a winning record by the end of season 3. It's all part of that, "What have you done for me lately," mentality we see so often.

Now, what would be the best scenario the Packers could expect getting for Willis? I think it could be a flip-flop of a couple of draft picks, possibly the 2nd and 3rd, where they could move up at least 10 to 12 spots. Maybe a flip in round 2, and a 4th round pick. Something a little different, but effective. Is something like this enough to entice Gute to pull the string on a trade? I doubt it. I have a hunch the Packers believe they have a legitimate shot at doing well this year and won't part with anyone they believe could end up being a factor in keeping the team upright if the injury bug hits.

Just my opinion, but I don't think the body of work from Willis is quite good enough yet to garner more. That said, the flip is that he has a barn burning preseason and someone covets him as much as that super model on the front of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition.

 

[OldSchool101]

Wow, you put some thought into that... way beyond my abilities, that's for damned sure.

But is the math right? Because right now we have 8 picks.... if we trade 4 picks for 4 other picks, we still have 8.

We trade 1 of those picks away, we now have 7 picks.

But in return for that 1 pick, we get 3 back. So now we should have 10, right?

Why are we drafting only 8 players? Gutekunst is starting to get self-conscious about hoarding so many players, and wants to be a good host?

You’re right. I added them back in for you. You’ve got a 6th and two 7ths to work with. Certainly not throwaways, but I might use 1 at QB and a couple ST standouts.

I think if we come away with players who can start at DL, WR and a solid CB fighting for that CB3 spot we’ll be good.

 

[tynimiller]

I've pretty much reached a point where I believe that most teams realize that if the #1 QB goes down, so does the season. The money needed to keep an extremely reliable backup is too high in today's market, because there's always teams looking for that guy who just might become their next franchise QB.

The question is, has Willis shown this potential in his time with the Packers? It's not a question of how much of it we believe, but how desperate and needy is some team going into a season. I'd ask the question, "Who are the 5 worst starting QBs in the NFL, and how bad is their draft picks this year?" It might not make sense, but if they haven't got a shot at a good one in the draft and have Tweedle Dee & Tweedle Dum as the two guys on their roster, what do they intend doing to give their team a better chance of winning games?

For both GMs and Head Coaches, job security comes through winning football games. Owners and fans do not want to hear something from the people running the team that it's going to take 5 years of getting your rears knocked off to get into a position where you're competitive. When we see coaches get 4- or 5-year contracts, we all know the vast majority of them are sent packing if they don't have a winning record by the end of season 3. It's all part of that, "What have you done for me lately," mentality we see so often.

Now, what would be the best scenario the Packers could expect getting for Willis? I think it could be a flip-flop of a couple of draft picks, possibly the 2nd and 3rd, where they could move up at least 10 to 12 spots. Maybe a flip in round 2, and a 4th round pick. Something a little different, but effective. Is something like this enough to entice Gute to pull the string on a trade? I doubt it. I have a hunch the Packers believe they have a legitimate shot at doing well this year and won't part with anyone they believe could end up being a factor in keeping the team upright if the injury bug hits.

Just my opinion, but I don't think the body of work from Willis is quite good enough yet to garner more. That said, the flip is that he has a barn burning preseason and someone covets him as much as that super model on the front of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition.

Similar concept is one I've tossed out there for Jaire use in a trade. A team might be very unwilling to give us much in the ways of a pick straight to us...but what if a team will take our fourth and Jaire for their third if Gute is sitting there shocked a guy is there still in the third they want...

Now of course that is assuming Jaire is moved...I have now become more percentage that he stays than goes but it isn't over 60/40

 

[El Guapo]

You don't pay a starter TOP money and PAY top back up money which it would take to keep Willis. Fiscally unsound approach IMO

FTR it has nothing to do with not thinking Willis is good - I do think he will be a starter for a team someday...but you simply don't pay top of market type deal and also pay a serious chunk for a back up too.

So you've got it all figured out? That's fantastic. Bravo to you!

Assuming that Willis will be a starter and that the ONLY way to keep him is to PAY him TOP backup MONEY may not be HOW it actually PLAYS out. Sure some desperate team may lure him away but I think that most teams realize that while he has a lot of talent, his limitations are also quite apparent. It would take an equally elite rushing offense and a QB whisperer to make him an effective starter.

I'm sure that Willis would jump at the chance to start somewhere, but he might also take good pay to stay here if the right opportunity doesn't knock on his door. The Packers would be wise to have a strong backup quarterback since Love experienced multiple injuries last season.

 

[OldSchool101]

This has been a historical debate. I’ve most often taken a strong stance that a good backup is imperative. However that is particularly true in a Win now season. As much as I would love to get draft capital for Willis, I can’t stand the thought of a losing a veteran (who has been rising the last couple years) that’s already deep into the playbook and system. It takes a minute for that

I think this team is good enough to win with Malik and he’s actually kinda fun to watch. One of our better backups since Matty Flynn

 

[OldSchool101]

Give me a Day 1 and Day 2 pick swap for Malik and I’m listening. I’m not unsellable at the right collateral.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Interesting. I like the trade back out of round 1 for more picks.

I have nothing against it, because i'm part of the "in Gute I trust" contingent, and I have faith that most of his draft decisions turn out to be the best thing for the team.

Of course, if he does it, it will literally be mental fingers on the blackboard for me at that moment, and I expect Amy would probably see the look on my face and say, "what's wrong?? is it you heart??? Oh my god, what should I do????"

Objectively speaking, if Gute does this, I'm down with it. I would initially be conflicted about it as my first reaction, but that would be a purely emotional response, which is a luxury Gute can not afford. And it would be a conflict for him, too, because I think he feels it's very important to the fanbase that in a draft that is being held at Lambeau, he gives us all a pick in the 1st round.

Murphy even specifically told him, "you know, you don't have to keep the pick." He said that because he knows Gute feels pressure to make a pick on Day One on his own stage, and wants to make sure Gute understands that the most important thing is that he use that pick to do the most good for the team - even if it means trading back.

But if he truly feels a trade back is in the best interests of the team, I hope he has the balls to do it. Furthermore, I believe he would. And I would applaud and respect him for it, because I am deeply impressed with the way he works draft day trades. We seem to win far more than we lose.

Oh I could easily see a team that isn’t in contention and an unknown future at QB saying we’ll test Malik rest of the year here is a guy we aren’t gonna be able to pay after the season that has an expiring contract in exchange…

Over the last week or two, I've sometimes wondered what might happen if Rodgers doesn't sign with the Steelers. Their 2025 season will be a disaster with Mason Rudolph at the helm, because while yes they have a solid team, it's not good enough to win with a 2nd tier QB. They will likely fall short in many ways.... if they can beef up their passing defense just a few notches, they should have a Top Ten defense overall, but they had a bottom 1/3 offense last year.

They're going nowhere without a top-level quarterback. They're paying a truckload of money for one of the premier wideouts in the NFL; that money is wasted if they don't hire someone who can throw him the ball.

At some point 1/2 or 2/3 through the season, do they decide they need to trade for their 2026 quarterback right now, rather than wait for free agency in the off-season? Because the only premium QBs who will be free agents at the end of 2025 are going to be Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Both of them a year older, and in Rodgers' case, a whole year without having played a single snap.

If Pittsburgh doesn't sign Rodgers this year, they may very well be willing to pay a solid price for someone like Malik Willis at some point in the season. I would venture to say, he is going to be one of the most (if not the most) highly valued 2nd-stringers in the NFL - especially if Jordan goes down for a week or two, and Malik steps in and plays well once again, and even more so if Willis has a kick-*** pre-season.

I think that there may be a world where we might hit a bit of a jackpot by trading Willis to a contender halfway through 2025.

 

[tynimiller]

Everyone, I love Willis. I was high on him in his draft class - I think he is a grade A human being first and a promising QB in the league that could be a starter for a team someday.

Just had to say that as I don't want anyone believing me seeing value or reason in trading him means I don't think that.

I completely understand the desire to have a competent backup...but here's the thing, until Willis actually had success last year for us, he had proven he was actually incapable in the NFL in his young career. Yes, he was in a terrible situation but still typically guys that have it shine through...Willis is truly one of those guys that has grown exponentially in his time and I mentioned it last year, his processing and patience and belief is like night and day now. Doesn't mean he will have it always but there is a QB there for sure, where it was questionable before.

Sure you could offer Willis 3-5M/Year to be your backup but he isn't dumb...someone will offer him a one year deal to push for a starter in that $8 to likely $12M range...I mean shoot Taylor Heinicke got a few years back now 2 years $14M.

Darnold got $10M from Vikings and everyone thought he was going to just be a bridge QB for a little while...

Fact is Willis has shown more than arguably any current backup that is young (he's only 25 years old) - a team knows if they acquired him this year it is to test the waters...if he is what everyone saw in GB in 2024 and can replicate that for them, there is likelihood of even more growth there and he is well worth testing out and paying....or if after this season there are always teams in need of QBs that don't currently have a second or third contracted QB and likely are without such a QB or have a young struggling rookie controlled contracted QB.

If Willis is in GB for the 2026 season it is strongly likely one of two things happened - something happens that removes Love from GB in some capacity OR Willis sucks in preseason and few chances during the regular and teams assume he is more Tennessee QB prior to 2024 than the GB QB of 2024. Because he would be saying no to millions to stay otherwise.

 

[tynimiller]

I think that there may be a world where we might hit a bit of a jackpot by trading Willis to a contender halfway through 2025.

Well before the trade deadline...absolutely a logically scenario....especially if Gute picks a QB on Day3 that shows potential.

 

[OldSchool101]

Here’s my perfect Draft! Yes I know I’m dreaming but can’t you let a guy dream?

Raiders fear missing at QB and trade Raiders #6, #63 to GB for
Packers #23,#87,Malik Willis

GB picks
#6
#54
#63
#124
Etc..
etc..

Now who do you take at #6??
It shakes things up a bit

 

[tynimiller]

Here’s my perfect Draft! Yes I know I’m dreaming but can’t you let a guy dream?

Raiders fear missing at QB and trade Raiders #6, #63 to GB for
Packers #23,#87,Malik Willis

GB picks
#6
#54
#63
#124
Etc..
etc..

Now who do you take at #6??

I'll play the hypothetical...who were the 1-5 picks?

 

[tynimiller]

Here’s my perfect Draft! Yes I know I’m dreaming but can’t you let a guy dream?

Raiders fear missing at QB and trade Raiders #6, #63 to GB for
Packers #23,#87,Malik Willis

GB picks
#6
#54
#63
#124
Etc..
etc..

Now who do you take at #6??
It shakes things up a bit

Although....wait a second...Raiders literally just signed Geno Smith and have O'Connell who showed some promise as a rookie....I don't think this is hypothetically possible even.

Now Jets might consider something like Malik / Our 23rd / Our 54th for their 7th and 73rd

We sit at 7th...let's say Ward, Sanders, Carter, Hunter, Graham and Jahdae go....

If I'm at 7 and that has happened and playing I have to stay put....I'm likely picking Shemar Stewart

 

[Schultz]

I have nothing against it, because i'm part of the "in Gute I trust" contingent, and I have faith that most of his draft decisions turn out to be the best thing for the team.

Of course, if he does it, it will literally be mental fingers on the blackboard for me at that moment, and I expect Amy would probably see the look on my face and say, "what's wrong?? is it you heart??? Oh my god, what should I do????"

Objectively speaking, if Gute does this, I'm down with it. I would initially be conflicted about it as my first reaction, but that would be a purely emotional response, which is a luxury Gute can not afford. And it would be a conflict for him, too, because I think he feels it's very important to the fanbase that in a draft that is being held at Lambeau, he gives us all a pick in the 1st round.

Murphy even specifically told him, "you know, you don't have to keep the pick." He said that because he knows Gute feels pressure to make a pick on Day One on his own stage, and wants to make sure Gute understands that the most important thing is that he use that pick to do the most good for the team - even if it means trading back.

But if he truly feels a trade back is in the best interests of the team, I hope he has the balls to do it. Furthermore, I believe he would. And I would applaud and respect him for it, because I am deeply impressed with the way he works draft day trades. We seem to win far more than we lose.


Over the last week or two, I've sometimes wondered what might happen if Rodgers doesn't sign with the Steelers. Their 2025 season will be a disaster with Mason Rudolph at the helm, because while yes they have a solid team, it's not good enough to win with a 2nd tier QB. They will likely fall short in many ways.... if they can beef up their passing defense just a few notches, they should have a Top Ten defense overall, but they had a bottom 1/3 offense last year.

They're going nowhere without a top-level quarterback. They're paying a truckload of money for one of the premier wideouts in the NFL; that money is wasted if they don't hire someone who can throw him the ball.

At some point 1/2 or 2/3 through the season, do they decide they need to trade for their 2026 quarterback right now, rather than wait for free agency in the off-season? Because the only premium QBs who will be free agents at the end of 2025 are going to be Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Both of them a year older, and in Rodgers' case, a whole year without having played a single snap.

If Pittsburgh doesn't sign Rodgers this year, they may very well be willing to pay a solid price for someone like Malik Willis at some point in the season. I would venture to say, he is going to be one of the most (if not the most) highly valued 2nd-stringers in the NFL - especially if Jordan goes down for a week or two, and Malik steps in and plays well once again, and even more so if Willis has a kick-*** pre-season.

I think that there may be a world where we might hit a bit of a jackpot by trading Willis to a contender halfway through 2025.

I can see a trade down also. Followed by a trade up would be nice. So far I just do not see it. You would need to find 2 trade partners. If you trade down too far you risk missing your guy. If you don't trade down far enough you do not gain enough collateral to move up where you need to. I know these hypothetical trades are fun, but they do not jive with the trade charts. I expect multiple trades during and possibly before the draft. That could lead to an opening for Gute to go to work.
IMO PITT is almost 70% to draft Jaxson Dart at #21. Trades could change that. I believe they sign Rodgers once (as Poker pointed out) he would no longer be a part of the compensatory formula.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Although....wait a second...Raiders literally just signed Geno Smith and have O'Connell who showed some promise as a rookie....I don't think this is hypothetically possible even.

Now Jets might consider something like Malik / Our 23rd / Our 54th for their 7th and 73rd

We sit at 7th...let's say Ward, Sanders, Carter, Hunter, Graham and Jahdae go....

If I'm at 7 and that has happened and playing I have to stay put....I'm likely picking Shemar Stewart

I think we've entered the Twilight Zone. But what the hell......

The Falcons signed Cousins in FA and then took Penix at, I think #8, so Vegas could do something weird like this. But we're talking about the Raiders desiring Willis after signing Smith, so that doesn't really fly. Willis would likely sit for a year and then leave in FA. LV is a dead end.

The trade with the Jets you propose is interesting - but could the Packers really go from #23 to #7 in such a deal? I don't know enough about draft-equivalency tables. It just seems it would be really hard to go from #23 to #7 without offering a lot more. But the Jets may be interested in evaluating Fields against Willis, so who knows? Not me.

It's fun to consider. But even aside from "is it a good deal or not" - I don't see Gluten trading up, not this year. The opposite is more likely.

 

[Thirteen Below]

f Tyler Shough falls and we pick him you instantly likely are vastly more willing to trade Malik either in the draft or before deadline potentially.

Living in the heart of the bluegrass, I see a lot of UK and Louisville football. We live about 100 miles from Louisville, but until recently owned a rental property up there, and I had to make frequent trips for maintenance, etc. I always try to time it so I can catch a game.

Shough is impressive to watch. He's got a lot of tools, and every time he drops back to pass, you can feel the excitement in the crowd. That's an intangible quality that doesn't happen with every college quarterback.

The problem is, he's old. He'll be 26 at the start of the 25 season; less than a year younger than Love.. A lot of his success is attributable to his age, but the other side of that coin is - how much better is he capable of getting? He's a lot better than most college QBs, but probably already a lot closer to his ceiling than a 22-year old would be. So that has to be considered.

But if we're just looking at him as a backup for a few years, rather than someone we're going to develop into a future franchise quarterback, that may not be an issue. If he's just a guy who can step in and keep us competitive for a few weeks mid-season, he may be very well-suited for that.

There's a really good chance he will slide, too, because of his age and his injury history. A lot of teams may like what they see, but be reluctant to commit to several years of development on a 26-yeard old QB who's missed almost half his college career with injuries. Teams looking for a future franchise QB are going to be cautious about him.

But the good news is, all his injuries have been broken bones, not soft-tissue injuries like hamstring, knee, etc. It's 2 broken collarbones and a broken leg, which can happen to anyone anytime. Mostly just bad luck.

There's a lot to him that may suit the Packers quite nicely, if he should slide.

 

[Thirteen Below]

If you trade down too far you risk missing your guy.

When Gute trades back, he usually seems t have several players in mind - he looks at the board and sees 3 or 4 guys who he would be happy to have, and it's reasonable to expect that at least one of them will be there 5 or 6 picks later.

 

[Heyjoe4]

When Gute trades back, he usually seems t have several players in mind - he looks at the board and sees 3 or 4 guys who he would be happy to have, and it's reasonable to expect that at least one of them will be there 5 or 6 picks later.

And that's why trading down for Gluten works so well - there are a number of guys he likes. The opposite is true trading up. There is usually only one guy being targeted.

 

[tynimiller]

I think we've entered the Twilight Zone. But what the hell......

The Falcons signed Cousins in FA and then took Penix at, I think #8, so Vegas could do something weird like this. But we're talking about the Raiders desiring Willis after signing Smith, so that doesn't really fly. Willis would likely sit for a year and then leave in FA. LV is a dead end.

The trade with the Jets you propose is interesting - but could the Packers really go from #23 to #7 in such a deal? I don't know enough about draft-equivalency tables. It just seems it would be really hard to go from #23 to #7 without offering a lot more. But the Jets may be interested in evaluating Fields against Willis, so who knows? Not me.

It's fun to consider. But even aside from "is it a good deal or not" - I don't see Gluten trading up, not this year. The opposite is more likely.

Not without sending our second for their third minimum and it could cost even more. Was just an exercise of who would you pick that intrigued me so presented a slightly more realistic IMO scenario.

 

[Schultz]

When Gute trades back, he usually seems t have several players in mind - he looks at the board and sees 3 or 4 guys who he would be happy to have, and it's reasonable to expect that at least one of them will be there 5 or 6 picks later.

Until they're not. Seriously I understand that. So how about, the farther you trade back the more guys you have to have in mind.

 

[Heyjoe4]

T

Not without sending our second for their third minimum and it could cost even more. Was just an exercise of who would you pick that intrigued me so presented a slightly more realistic IMO scenario.

Thanks. Again I'm no draft-value expert. But I know enough that moving from #23 to inside the top 10 is gonna cost. Again it's fun to consider. It also explains why Gluten will likely not be moving up in round 1.

 

[tynimiller]

T

Thanks. Again I'm no draft-value expert. But I know enough that moving from #23 to inside the top 10 is gonna cost. Again it's fun to consider. It also explains why Gluten will likely not be moving up in round 1.

In truth I'd likely bet there are very few prospects in this draft that he'd move up for....now I could see a small slide up if Shemar Stewart or Donovan Ez is there at like pick 17 or later and they really like him...perhaps Kenneth Grant too...but even with them one could greatly argue which is better giving up your fourth rounder to move up and spend a one (plus that burned 4th) to get say Kenneth Grant...when perhaps you stay put and get Jamaree Caldwell in the fourth or Alfred Collins in the 2nd/3rd to do similar stuff with (albeit tick below likely Grant) but you still pick at 23.