Most surprising stat so far - sacks

[bigbubbatd]

I have been impressed with Pettine overall but I just saw GB was tied for the league lead in sacks! That is with our "stud" starting OLB having a combined 4 sacks. Matthews with 2.5 and Perry 1.5. The Packers have something like 15 players with a sack this year. Before the season started I remember someone saying Pettine usually didn't depend on OLB for sacks and that seems to be bearing fruit. He brings pressure but not a ton - only 9th in the league and we'll behind capers pace.

And before people say it is largely on two games the truth is most of the teams near the top have a couple games really padding their stats. The Vikings got 10 sacks in one game or something.

So what makes Pettine's scheme so successful?

Also a down the road question. Do these numbers mean a 1st round olb isn't a guarantee?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In my opinion it's even more impressive that the Packers outright lead the league in sack percentage at 9.5%.

 

[Mondio]

my friend and I were talking about this during the game and the biggest difference between Pettine's defense and the philosophy before is that in this system everybody can be a playmaker. It's not based around having defensive studs, it's about having defensive players. Well Alexander is a stud IMO, but it's not about setting up the stars of the defense. It's about putting people in positions to win. Everyone bagging on Matthews and he actually had a pretty good game last week. He cut inside, took 2 blockers leaving Kenny with a 1 on 1 he had almost already slipped by to get the sack. Pettine is taking OLB's and putting them in coverage to send a safety. He's creating a mismatch with OLB's so an inside rusher can beat 1 guy and go. He's picking times to use his OLB's to rush. Plays press and then brings a safety or DB. Everyone can be a playmaker. I like it.

I did not know we led the league in sacks though. Nice work guys.

 

[rodell330]

Imagine if Clay and Perry actually got sacks

 

[Dantés]

I have been impressed with Pettine overall but I just saw GB was tied for the league lead in sacks! That is with our "stud" starting OLB having a combined 4 sacks. Matthews with 2.5 and Perry 1.5. The Packers have something like 15 players with a sack this year. Before the season started I remember someone saying Pettine usually didn't depend on OLB for sacks and that seems to be bearing fruit. He brings pressure but not a ton - only 9th in the league and we'll behind capers pace.

And before people say it is largely on two games the truth is most of the teams near the top have a couple games really padding their stats. The Vikings got 10 sacks in one game or something.

So what makes Pettine's scheme so successful?

Also a down the road question. Do these numbers mean a 1st round olb isn't a guarantee?

Scheming pressure without consistently bringing more than four rushers. That's what makes his scheme so successful. He creates pressure while still having 7-8 players in coverage. He does this with creativity in his blitzes. When offenses don't know where the pressure is coming from, it's difficult for them to block it even if there are only 3 or 4 guys that actually coming.

I'm reminded of a sack vs. the Rams. The Packers showed heavy pressure at the LOS. When the ball was snapped, Clark and Daniels rushed, and Jones came off the edge, but everyone else dropped. The flooded zones made Goff hold the ball, Jones' edge pressure pulled the OT off, and Clark won his match-up to get to Goff. 3 man rush that generated pressure as though it was a 4+ man blitz.

And I've been warning people for months-- while I would love to see a talent at OLB who can win one on one matchups, fans shouldn't hold their breath. Pettine's defenses have always favored investing in ILB's and DL as far as the front seven is concerned. And it makes sense in a way-- if your DL are the only players who are consistently attacking the QB (while the OLB's are more drop/blitz players rather than true every down pass rushers), then that's where you want to invest.

I personally think that Anthony Barr would be a great OLB in Pettine's defense. He isn't a true edge rusher, but he would be a plus drop linebacker compared to most OLB's and he's a good blitzer.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Scheming pressure without consistently bringing more than four rushers. That's what makes his scheme so successful. He creates pressure while still having 7-8 players in coverage.

The Packers have blitzed on 35.2% of opponents dropbacks this season, a number that is slightly higher than in 2017 and would have ranked fifth in the league last year.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers have blitzed on 35.2% of opponents dropbacks this season, a number that is slightly higher than in 2017 and would have ranked fifth in the league last year.

How is "blitz" defined in that metric?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How is "blitz" defined in that metric?

I have the numbers from PFF. They define a blitz as any play in which the defense sends one more rusher than expected, based on the aligned down lineman or any time a defensive back rushes the passer.

There aren't any other numbers available that I'm aware of.

 

[bigbubbatd]

The Packers have blitzed on 35.2% of opponents dropbacks this season, a number that is slightly higher than in 2017 and would have ranked fifth in the league last year.

PFF and ESPN have very different stats on this

"Pettine actually hasn’t blitzed as much as Clark might think. He has sent five or more rushers on 26.5 percent of pass plays, which ranks ninth in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. That’s actually down from last season, when former defensive coordinator Dom Capers sent five or more 33.2 percent of the time. Over Capers’ entire tenure (from 2009-17), the Packers had the fifth-highest blitz rate, at 37.3 percent."

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-...hammer-helps-packers-to-surprising-sacks-lead

 

[gbgary]

Imagine if Clay and Perry actually got sacks

imagine if we had Mack.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Scheming pressure without consistently bringing more than four rushers. That's what makes his scheme so successful. He creates pressure while still having 7-8 players in coverage. He does this with creativity in his blitzes. When offenses don't know where the pressure is coming from, it's difficult for them to block it even if there are only 3 or 4 guys that actually coming.

I'm reminded of a sack vs. the Rams. The Packers showed heavy pressure at the LOS. When the ball was snapped, Clark and Daniels rushed, and Jones came off the edge, but everyone else dropped. The flooded zones made Goff hold the ball, Jones' edge pressure pulled the OT off, and Clark won his match-up to get to Goff. 3 man rush that generated pressure as though it was a 4+ man blitz.

And I've been warning people for months-- while I would love to see a talent at OLB who can win one on one matchups, fans shouldn't hold their breath. Pettine's defenses have always favored investing in ILB's and DL as far as the front seven is concerned. And it makes sense in a way-- if your DL are the only players who are consistently attacking the QB (while the OLB's are more drop/blitz players rather than true every down pass rushers), then that's where you want to invest.

I personally think that Anthony Barr would be a great OLB in Pettine's defense. He isn't a true edge rusher, but he would be a plus drop linebacker compared to most OLB's and he's a good blitzer.

I don't know about that. When he was with the Ravens, they had some darn good edge rushers. The Jets were something of an anomaly because they had Revis, made it real easy to scheme blitzes from everywhere when he took away half the field. I'm not saying that you're necessarily wrong, just that the Jets defense with Revis at his best is a style of defense that doesn't translate to other teams (unless you have one of the top cover corners of all-time). Unfortunately, he's going to be forced to prove he can succeed without great edge rushers because TT decided to give Perry an albatross for a contract.

 

[rodell330]

imagine if we had Mack.

I think I just shed a tear.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I have been impressed with Pettine overall but I just saw GB was tied for the league lead in sacks! That is with our "stud" starting OLB having a combined 4 sacks. Matthews with 2.5 and Perry 1.5. The Packers have something like 15 players with a sack this year. Before the season started I remember someone saying Pettine usually didn't depend on OLB for sacks and that seems to be bearing fruit. He brings pressure but not a ton - only 9th in the league and we'll behind capers pace.

And before people say it is largely on two games the truth is most of the teams near the top have a couple games really padding their stats. The Vikings got 10 sacks in one game or something.

So what makes Pettine's scheme so successful?

Also a down the road question. Do these numbers mean a 1st round olb isn't a guarantee?

Wow! If you had asked me this morning where GB ranked in sacks I would have guessed bottom 10. What’s even stranger is, as you point out, Pettine doesn’t blitz a lot. When he does, it’s well disguised and so the secondary is getting more sacks, I guess. Well, that’s good news! As for what makes the scheme successful, it’s probably the element of surprise. That’s something we can’t attribute to the offense, which has become painfully predictive/stale under MM.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think I just shed a tear.

Make that two tears. And what makes it all the worse is that he’s playing for the Bears....... OK, make it three tears.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers have blitzed on 35.2% of opponents dropbacks this season, a number that is slightly higher than in 2017 and would have ranked fifth in the league last year.

Thanks for the stat. It seems like they blitz less than 35%, but the numbers don’t lie. It’s also probably why they have a relatively high number of sacks, even more surprising given the lack of production by Matthews/Perry. All that said, this team still needs an edge rusher. I miss Julius Peppers.....

 

[El Guapo]

We beat the Bears and will hopefully beat them again. I'll shed no tears about keeping that salary off of our books. They can do that because they haven't had to pay Trubisky yet. You can't compare the two teams in that regard.

I heard on a few shows and in an interview with Matthews that Pettine is using Perry and Matthews in roles to create sacks for other players. That's not to say that they shouldn't be getting theirs too, but I think that what Mike seems to be doing (and quite well) is using all of his resources in the best ways possible. Perry is strong and can eat up blocks. Matthews' reputation draws some double teams. I think that Pettine is wisely using this to open up sacks from less predictable players. Crafty football.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Scheming pressure without consistently bringing more than four rushers. That's what makes his scheme so successful. He creates pressure while still having 7-8 players in coverage. He does this with creativity in his blitzes. When offenses don't know where the pressure is coming from, it's difficult for them to block it even if there are only 3 or 4 guys that actually coming.

I'm reminded of a sack vs. the Rams. The Packers showed heavy pressure at the LOS. When the ball was snapped, Clark and Daniels rushed, and Jones came off the edge, but everyone else dropped. The flooded zones made Goff hold the ball, Jones' edge pressure pulled the OT off, and Clark won his match-up to get to Goff. 3 man rush that generated pressure as though it was a 4+ man blitz.

And I've been warning people for months-- while I would love to see a talent at OLB who can win one on one matchups, fans shouldn't hold their breath. Pettine's defenses have always favored investing in ILB's and DL as far as the front seven is concerned. And it makes sense in a way-- if your DL are the only players who are consistently attacking the QB (while the OLB's are more drop/blitz players rather than true every down pass rushers), then that's where you want to invest.

I personally think that Anthony Barr would be a great OLB in Pettine's defense. He isn't a true edge rusher, but he would be a plus drop linebacker compared to most OLB's and he's a good blitzer.

All good points. Pettine’s scheme is more likely to collapse the pocket (with pressure coming from DLs and ILBs. Dropping 6 or 7 into zone coverage makes it ******* the QB, and the pocket collapsing increases 1) the chance for a sack, 2) incomplete pass, 3) QB fumble, or 4) INTs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We beat the Bears and will hopefully beat them again. I'll shed no tears about keeping that salary off of our books. They can do that because they haven't had to pay Trubisky yet. You can't compare the two teams in that regard.

I heard on a few shows and in an interview with Matthews that Pettine is using Perry and Matthews in roles to create sacks for other players. That's not to say that they shouldn't be getting theirs too, but I think that what Mike seems to be doing (and quite well) is using all of his resources in the best ways possible. Perry is strong and can eat up blocks. Matthews' reputation draws some double teams. I think that Pettine is wisely using this to open up sacks from less predictable players. Crafty football.

Pettine is a very creative guy. Maybe I shouldn’t be so ******* Perry/CMIII based on what you describe.

And yeah, it would have been nice to have Mack, but that means two players (Rodgers and Mack) eating up a good share of cap. Eventually, that hamstrings the GM. And Trubisky is still on a rookie contract. My guess is that even if the Packers had wanted Mack, they simply couldn’t outbid the Bears. The D has been the most pleasant surprise this year, in spite of the weakness at S and edge rusher. Based on this, maybe they go after a FS with their first pick, rather than an edge rusher. All comes down to who is available, but next year’s draft is supposed to be loaded with edge talent. At any rate, there are a lot fewer holes to close now, and this D is an impact player away from being top 5.

 

[Dantés]

I have the numbers from PFF. They define a blitz as any play in which the defense sends one more rusher than expected, based on the aligned down lineman or any time a defensive back rushes the passer.

There aren't any other numbers available that I'm aware of.

I ask because sometimes the term is used in different senses. Sometimes people mean that rushers come after the QB that aren't expected, but sometimes they mean more than four rushers come after the QB. Pettine is super blitz heavy by the former definition, but I don't think he is by the latter.

 

[Dantés]

I don't know about that. When he was with the Ravens, they had some darn good edge rushers. The Jets were something of an anomaly because they had Revis, made it real easy to scheme blitzes from everywhere when he took away half the field. I'm not saying that you're necessarily wrong, just that the Jets defense with Revis at his best is a style of defense that doesn't translate to other teams (unless you have one of the top cover corners of all-time). Unfortunately, he's going to be forced to prove he can succeed without great edge rushers because TT decided to give Perry an albatross for a contract.

I posted this back in September. This doesn't prove anything, but I do think it's indicative to an extent:

I think the history of teams with Ryan/Pettine run defenses can be instructive about the OLB position. In the 4 years that they were with the Jets, their top 100 defensive picks were:

-Kyle Wilson (1st, CB)
-Muhammad Wilkerson (1st, iDL)
-Kenrick Ellis (3rd, iDL)
-Quinton Coples (1st, ?)
-Demario Davis (3rd, OBLB)

In his one year with Buffalo:

-Kiko Alonso (2nd, OBLB)

In his two years with the Browns:

-Justin Gilbert (1st, CB)
-Christian Kirksey (3rd, OBLB)
-Danny Shelton (1st, iDL)
-Nate Orchard (2nd, ED)
-Xavier Cooper (3rd, iDL)

One year with the Packers:

-Jaire Alexander (1st, CB)
-Josh Jackson (2nd, CB)
-Oren Burks (3rd, OBLB)

Quinton Coples is the one guy that I have a hard time defining. If memory serves, they drafted him to primarily play on the line (like a 5T) and only moved him to an edge position when that failed. If I'm right about that, then here are the numbers:

-4 cornerbacks
-5 interior defensive linemen
-4 off-ball linebackers
-1 edge
-0 safeties

Additionally, the biggest FA money I can find in his history was spent on Antonio Cromartie (CB), Donte Whitner (S), Karlos Dansby (OBLB), and Tramon Williams (CB).

The trend indicates that corners, defensive linemen, and off-ball linebackers are more important to him than edge rushers. This makes sense given how his scheme tends to operate. He wants talented DL who can create pressure and occupy OL attention and defensive backs who can cover man to man. With those two things in place, he will scheme pressure rather than rely on a predictable source, such as a Rod Marinelli 4-3. The emphasis on OBLB would indicate to me that he wants a field general to run his system and be an important cog in that manufactured pressure.

All this is to say that while they absolutely need to acquire more OLB depth right now, we probably shouldn't expect for it to become a big position of emphasis.

 

[Mondio]

I think I just shed a tear.

Still upset we won on Sunday?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I was also surprised at the stat as well. This is going to make for a very interesting Draft. I could see us going for a FS and an ILB in the 1st Round with a 3-4 DE in the 2nd Round. If we can get three studs at those positions this team could be known more for its defense than its offense.

 

[Beebe82]

Some interesting reading throughout this series

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/..._medium=recirc&utm_campaign=rail-most-popular

While Pettine obviously doesn't use exclusively match coverage, he definitely uses some elements. Look at the Packer's Defensive line up play after play after play, it's almost essentially the same and hard to tell exactly who is covering and who is blitzing

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I posted this back in September. This doesn't prove anything, but I do think it's indicative to an extent:

I agree that we can look at his history to an extent, and it does show that he doesn't always rely on one dominant guy. However, I just hesitate to take any tendency information from teams that have a historically amazing player at one position. I wouldn't take much from the Seahawks defensive play from when they had Earl Thomas since he was the sole reason they could run the defense they did. Same thing with Revis. Plus, I just can't imagine an elite defense that lacks a dominant pass rusher. I mean, look at the effect adding an elite pass rusher had on the Bears; while Pettine might not NEED an elite edge guy, having one would certainly be helpful I would imagine....though maybe not as much as having decent safeties.

 

[sschind]

imagine if we had Mack.

OK, you just need to stop.