Mike Pettine's Defence

[XPack]

Good article:

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/worlds-best-preview-living-and-dying-by-big-plays-on-defense/

 

[rmontro]

that's the soft, bend-don't-break for you. it keeps your D on the field too long, gives up yards and points, and limits the takeaway chances.

I don't know if it limits the takeaways. If you let the opponent keep the ball all day long, that's a lot of plays for you to try to force a fumble or something

I wouldn’t read too much into it. We’ve obviously seen him make adjustments to know he can.

Maybe he figured they weren't punching it in for touchdowns, so they were doing okay. And by the time they did get a touchdown, the game was clearly over anyway, so why change it up then?

 

[PackAttack12]

All I'll say is that, if we were told before the game started that the defense would only allow 3 FGs for a total of 9 points in the first half, every single one of us would've taken it.

We can talk all day long about time of possession and the defense needing to keep opposing offenses off the field until we're blue in the face. But when your defense gives up 9 points, while your offense is averaging 6 plays per drive for 35 total yards, THAT is what doesn't help time of possession.

I get that we were allowing a lot of yards. But at the end of the day, games are won and lost by points scored. Only giving up 12 points up until the 3:56 mark of the 3rd quarter when your offense cannot sustain a damn drive is quite remarkable.

The way the offense played Sunday would eventually lead to disaster for 90+ percent of defenses in the NFL.

 

[pacmaniac]

All I'll say is that, if we were told before the game started that the defense would only allow 3 FGs for a total of 9 points in the first half, every single one of us would've taken it.

No I'm not that kind of guy. I'd ask you how many points we scored in the first half, and how many points we allowed in the second half, before I gave you an answer.

 

[OldSchool101]

I get that we were allowing a lot of yards.

It seems the most hurtful thing is the amount of time those drives swallowed. We had just 3 series in entire first half on Sunday. Also something I read that I don’t believe to be coincidence is that in the 2 games GB had lost.. they are the only 2 games where we also lost Time of Possession.
GB is 7-0 when winning the clock
GB is 0-2 when our opponent wins the clock.

That to me speaks loudly. While allowing just a FG is ok. Letting them swallow an 1/8 of the entire game clock doing it is not. That primarily happens when a large part of the production is coming from running the ball. I don’t believe that LA had any pre-game intention of going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers by airing it out all day.

To your point on our D. The GB Defense only allowed 2 TDs in 4 quarters. 1 came from our ST spotting LA the ball in FG range. 1 came from a FG they made where we jumped offsides (Brown) and they went for it from the 1 and scored 7. You could say realistically that we spotted them 8 points on those 2 errors.

We can’t routinely lose on ST. That cost us 8 points

 

[PackAttack12]

It seems the most hurtful thing is the amount of time those drives swallowed. We had just 3 series in entire first half on Sunday. Also something I read that I don’t believe to be coincidence is that in the 2 games GB had lost.. they are the only 2 games where we also lost Time of Possession.
GB is 7-0 when winning the clock
GB is 0-2 when our opponent wins the clock.

That to me speaks loudly. While allowing just a FG is ok. Letting them swallow an 1/8 of the entire game clock doing it is not.

To your point on our D. The GB Defense only allowed 2 TDs in 4 quarters. 1 came from our ST spotting LA the ball in FG range. 1 came from a FG they made where we jumped offsides (Brown) and they went for it from the 1 and scored 7. You could say realistically that we spotted them 8 points on those 2 errors.

Again though, the offense not sustaining drives has a negative impact on time of possession as well. It's not exclusively a defensive issue.

 

[pacmaniac]

GB is 7-0 when winning the clock

So then it's a good thing Rodgers always snaps the ball with 1 second on the clock.

 

[OldSchool101]

Again though, the offense not sustaining drives has a negative impact on time of possession as well. It's not exclusively a defensive issue.

Yes. You always want production on Offense. But the best way to get that is making sure Aaron Rodgers gets enough “at bats”

So then it's a good thing Rodgers always snaps the ball with 1 second on the clock.

It’s always a good thing when Rodgers has the ball. That’s the common denominator in our winning thus far. The more he has it, the more we win. The template of “keep - away” works both ways. MLF addressed this after reviewing the game. He himself said we should’ve committed to the run more as we were pounding it just fine.​

 

[pacmaniac]

I knew it, time of possession actually means nothing:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-has-turned-into-a-meaningless-stat/75947954/

You put together long drives that eat up the clock, sure the other team doesn't get the ball. But it also means fewer drives for you.

 

[gbgary]

I don't know if it limits the takeaways. If you let the opponent keep the ball all day long, that's a lot of plays for you to try to force a fumble or something

ha! between the d not stopping them between the 20's, and the O unable to get first downs, they were on the field a ton. why they continue this trend of not pressuring the opponent's O until the red zone is beyond me. what's changed since the beginning of the season? the O's actually better (except the last game). you'd think they'd want to get them as many possessions as possible.

 

[PackAttack12]

I knew it, time of possession actually means nothing:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-has-turned-into-a-meaningless-stat/75947954/

You put together long drives that eat up the clock, sure the other team doesn't get the ball. But it also means fewer drives for you.

So you're referencing an article from 2015...

Let's take a look at this year. Top 5 teams in TOP:

1. Baltimore
2. San Francisco
3. New Orleans
4. New England
5. Houston

All 5 of these teams lead their division. Combined record of 35-7

Bottom 5 teams in TOP:

28. New York Jets
29. Cincinnati
30. Miami
31. Arizona
32. Washington

All 5 teams are at the very bottom of their divisions. Combined record of 6-35-1.

I may not be the smartest guy in the world, but it appears like time of possession is far from a "meaningless stat".

 

[gbgary]

I knew it, time of possession actually means nothing:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-has-turned-into-a-meaningless-stat/75947954/

You put together long drives that eat up the clock, sure the other team doesn't get the ball. But it also means fewer drives for you.

that's a stupid way to look at it though. you keeping the ball and getting points is the object of the game. the D has to do their part too though. we've seen year after year of high scoring O over the years with nothing to show for it because the D was bad, tired, or both, from being on the field all day long. i'd rather have the ball than not. that rhythm the O lacked can't be rectified without the ball.

 

[greengold]

Going away from the run was just one aspect of the game that killed the Packers. Add to that, we have a great running game. The whole offense worked hard to achieve that this year. I question why we didn't employ that? How did we not run? Very simple football 101 stuff. Keep that opposition who is adept, with a great QB, on the sidelines, rest your D, and methodically move the chains. Score. Force your own will. We saw none of that.

It happened to us, actually, and it worked for the Chargers. They rushed 35 times to our 11... opened up their passing game, which running - always - does for 294 yds, a 14.4 yd average... and a 35:51 TOP v. our own 24:09

Kind of like Apocalypse now... "frankly sir, I don't see.. any... method." What in the Wild World of Sports was going on out there?

A learning lesson, one we all hope is heeded.

 

[XPack]

As usual analysing TOP without context is useless. If a team has comfortable lead and they can afford to run every pay for 3 downs before progressing 10 yards. If you are leading by a single score, trying to run down time is a bad idea.

 

[Mondio]

well, he gets Campbell back this week at least.

 

[pacmaniac]

So you're referencing an article from 2015...

Let's take a look at this year. Top 5 teams in TOP:

1. Baltimore
2. San Francisco
3. New Orleans
4. New England
5. Houston

All 5 of these teams lead their division. Combined record of 35-7

Bottom 5 teams in TOP:

28. New York Jets
29. Cincinnati
30. Miami
31. Arizona
32. Washington

All 5 teams are at the very bottom of their divisions. Combined record of 6-35-1.

I may not be the smartest guy in the world, but it appears like time of possession is far from a "meaningless stat".

So then in some years it has no meaning and in other years it seems to have meaning, which means it's not a reliable stat. Plus if it seems to have meaning, there's always the question of what causes what. Does TOP make you win, or does winning make you have more TOP (due to running out the clock)?

 

[gopkrs]

As a Packer fan, I hate to see the other team get 1st down after 1st down. It makes me jumpy.

 

[PackAttack12]

So then in some years it has no meaning and in other years it seems to have meaning, which means it's not a reliable stat. Plus if it seems to have meaning, there's always the question of what causes what. Does TOP make you win, or does winning make you have more TOP (due to running out the clock)?

Even in 2015, the bottom 9 teams in the NFL in TOP had losing records. It isn't always an indicator of success, and of course there are exceptions to every rule, but it is far from a meaningless stat.

 

[greengold]

Yeah PackAttack12, TOP is a weird stat. Should really just be considered a small part of a larger body of indicators in terms of drawing conclusions. Many a game is won by a team with a lesser TOP. My own bigger point on that was the rushing attempts being so low. We became predictable, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass. Of course their two ends will pin their ears back all day on that. And, Rodgers takes a beating with that. So does our OL, absorbing energy rather than delivering the blow to our opponent in run blocking.

Regardless, with all the stalled drives, our D was on the field way too long and got gassed. Agree too their holding LAC to FGs first half was phenomenal.

-----

Found this interesting... if we were ever to have our D make a statement, Sunday v. CAR would be a great time to do just that. They need to flip this.

In the past 6 weeks, GB defense ranks 31st in yards per play allowed, 30th in net yards per pass play, 30th in big completions, 23rd in points per game, 24th in sack percentage and 26th on 3rd down. This from PackersWire...

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...-defense-needs-more-out-of-lb-blake-martinez/

If I were Pettine, I might limit Kenny Clark for a while to get him a break from what amounts to the most snaps of any DL in the NFL. I'd challenge Montravius Adams and Kingsley Keke to bring it. I'd also remove Martinez, and insert Ty Summers into the mix, with Burks or Goodson alongside. The middle of our D is killing us, and that is with a very solid player in Kenny Clark. There are many more players not pulling their weight, or just not getting opportunities altogether. Pretty sure they don't want to burn Kenny Clark out... at this rate, they might, and he's been playing through 2 injuries. Give the guy a break.

McCaffery could have a field day going against his former teammate, Blake Martinez. I'd prefer Pettine gets a true Plan B ready to go if he's going to start Blake at ILB... actually, I'd prefer he yank Martinez - he's just not what we need, not even close.

Our Defense DVOA has dropped from 13 last week to 20. We currently rank #26 against the run. Wow. Our Defense DVOA ranked 7 in week 7. This should be interesting to see if Pettine can adjust and get his players to respond.

 

[rmontro]

In the past 6 weeks, GB defense ranks 31st in yards per play allowed, 30th in net yards per pass play, 30th in big completions, 23rd in points per game, 24th in sack percentage and 26th on 3rd down. This from PackersWire...

Yikes, I knew our defense was trending downward, but those stats make it sound like we have the worst defense in the league. Or close to it.

Could always point to our high Strength of Schedule, I guess, but still...

 

[pacmaniac]

Pretty soon we're gonna wish Capers was never fired.

 

[OldSchool101]

Pretty soon we're gonna wish Capers was never fired.

Ok... here it goes.......

HIRE CAPERS!

You heard it here first folks!

 

[gbgary]

I always kind of chuckle when people use the "Bend but don't break" label. I doubt many DC's tell their defense "ok boys, here is our strategy, we are going to let the other team consistently march down to the red zone, but we will suddenly wake up and stop them there". Sounds more like an excuse, especially if it is used to explain the Packer Defense that was on the field yesterday.

but that's exactly what they've been doing the last several games. soft between the 20's then they tighten-up and play more man in the red zone. something's changed since the first 4-5 games.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This defense just hasn't been good over the last 6 games. If it doesn't improve, the Packers are going to lose some games that they should win and if they do make the playoffs, they probably won't last long.

In the past six weeks, the Packers’ defense ranks:

• 31st in yards per play allowed
• 30th in net yards per pass play
• 30th in big completions
• 23rd in points per game
• 24th in sack percentage and 26th on 3rd down.

Overall for the season, the Defense ranks:

• 24th in rushing yds allowed/game (128)
• 21st in passing yds allowed/game (255)
• 26th in total yds allowed/game (383)

 

[ls1bob]

Maybe something is missing coverage wise in the middle and down the field. I think the reason they can play so much better in the red zone is because the amount of room for an opposing to operate is shrunk significantly. The out of bounds of the end zone is taking away the deep threat and limiting what the offense can call. Either the loss of Greene early on,orOC’s finding out where to attack or D in the middle has made a negative impact. I think Martinez is a lot of it and unfortunately I think he is morphing into latter years AJ Hawk.