Jones, Perry Shedding Bust Labels

[Deleted member 6794]

Imo, the real impact players are generally top 10-12 draft picks.

Just like that Rodgers guy, eh???

Last season 15 players drafted after the top 12 made the All-Pro first team. Maybe they're harder to find but there are for sure a lot of talented players available late in the first round.

 

[PikeBadger]

Just like that Rodgers guy, eh???

Last season 15 players drafted after the top 12 made the All-Pro first team. Maybe they're harder to find but there are for sure a lot of talented players available late in the first round.

Lol, of course there are. They just aren't normally as talented as those in the top 10. Thanks for making my point by going back 10 years and providing an exception that is a QB no less, not the defensive players we were talking about.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lol, of course there are. They just aren't normally as talented as those in the top 10. Thanks for making my point by going back 10 years and providing an exception that is a QB no less, not the defensive players we were talking about.

There are tons of examples on the defensive side of the ball as well. Justin Houston, Elvis Dumervil, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman and Eric Weddle just to name a few All-Pros from last season who weren't even drafted in the first round.

 

[PikeBadger]

There are tons of examples on the defensive side of the ball as well. Justin Houston, Elvis Dumervil, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman and Eric Weddle just to name a few All-Pros from last season who weren't even drafted in the first round.

So you don't think the first 6 defensive players drafted every year are more athletically gifted than their peers and more likely to be impact players?

 

[RRyder]

So you don't think the first 6 defensive players drafted every year are more athletically gifted than their peers and more likely to be impact players?

More likely he's pointing out talented high impact players can and are found anywhere in the draft even if the odds decrease the later they're picked.

Mathews being another example of one having been selected 26th overall I believe. Considering the Packers, ever since the Ron Wolf days, have made a living off of finding Probowl/All Pro level guys not only late in the first round but after and I'm suprised that someone argues otherwise.

Every All Pro/Probowl caliber player we've had recently, (and considering we're a SB favorite it's safe to say we're not lacking in that regard), has been a late first round pick or after for us sans Raji, Peppers and Woodson with the latter two being FA pickups.

As a side note the only 2 positions I'd say are unbelievably difficult to find an elite player at with later then a top 10 pick are QB and LT. And even then there are a few exceptions like Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Favre to go along with say a Clifton type guy at LT

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So you don't think the first 6 defensive players drafted every year are more athletically gifted than their peers and more likely to be impact players?

Being one of the most gifted athletes doesn't always translate to success in the NFL. While the probablity to select an impact player is higher early in the first round that doesn't mean teams can't find any later in the draft. A good scouting staff makes it easier to find gems outside of the top 10-15.

 

[Sky King]

Being one of the most gifted athletes doesn't always translate to success in the NFL. While the probablity to select an impact player is higher early in the first round that doesn't mean teams can't find any later in the draft. A good scouting staff makes it easier to find gems outside of the top 10-15.

Yeah, I think your last statement pretty much sums up the philosophical outcome of draft and develop as the means of keeping this team consistently competitive. As a fan I would rather exercise patience with developing the potential up-and-comers than to have ridden the roller coaster (W-L) ride that other teams have experienced over the past 25 years. We are a very fortunate fan base.

 

[TJV]

Being one of the most gifted athletes doesn't always translate to success in the NFL.

Of course that's true and there have been a lot of examples throughout the history of the league. The problem IMO is PikeBadger posts as though there's a nearly perfect correlation between draft position and talent which led him to post this:

Imo, Trgovac has been given more talent to work with than any other position coach on the team.

Never mind the amount of talent Thompson has acquired at WR, without using a first round choice and never mind that according to this way of thinking, Alex Smith is more talented than Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Carl]

I don't know if I agree with this. A first round pick is a first round pick because they're expected to come in and produce. Perry and Jones were expected to come in, start full time and make plays. Perry has been super disappointing, but at least has been working out well in a rotation with Mike Neal. Jones seems to be settling much better than Perry.

Yes they should come in produced. I look at a center piece of a defense though as a guy like Clay, JJ Watt, Sherman, basically only of the best defenders.
I expect late first guys to be good, but not that good and hope one of them does turn out that good.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes they should come in produced. I look at a center piece of a defense though as a guy like Clay, JJ Watt, Sherman, basically only of the best defenders.
I expect late first guys to be good, but not that good and hope one of them does turn out that good.

Funny that one of the guys you mentioned is a late first-rounder while another was selected in the fifth round.

 

[Carl]

Funny that one of the guys you mentioned is a late first-rounder while another was selected in the fifth round.

It's not like I said they can't be found late. Once again, I'm just saying when picking guys later, there are not picked with expectations to be the best in the league. When they turn out that way, awesome.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just like that Rodgers guy, eh???

Last season 15 players drafted after the top 12 made the All-Pro first team. Maybe they're harder to find but there are for sure a lot of talented players available late in the first round.

The 2014 AP All Pro team included 12 offensive players, 12 defensive players, and 3 specialists (place kicker, punter, kick returner) for 27 players in all.

So, if 12 of those guys were top 12 picks, that 44% of the players out 5% of the 224 annual picks (excluding compensatory picks and picks lost to penalties which I'm not going to bother to count).

Some further adjustments are needed.

The only place kicker to be drafted in the top 12 in NFL history was Charlie Gogolak in 1966.

No punter has ever been drafted in the top 12 in NFL history.

No fullback or center has been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years, which is as far back as I looked for those positions.

Only 2 OGs have been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years: Warmack and Cooper in 2011.

Only 6 RBs have been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years: Richardson, Spiller, Matthews, Moreno, McFadden and Lynch. Among those, only Richardson, Spiller and Matthews were in the last 6 drafts, and only Richardson in the last 5, with RB shelf lives being notoriously short.

I did not consider kick returners since it conceivable a top 12 pick would make All Pro as a side job, such as Pat Peterson in 2011.

So, of the 27 positions, PK, P, FB and C need to be thrown out because there were no top 12 picks at those positions over the last 10 years. Expecting a top 12 pick at OG or RB would be a big stretch given how few there have been. It should be no surprise that none of the 2014 All Pros at those positions were top 12 picks.

That leaves 21 positions where the top 12 picks are highly concentrated, or at least not very thinly concentrated. On that basis 57% of last season's All Pros came out of the top 5% of the picks.

That 43% would come out of the other 95% of the picks should not be surprising, but clearly when looking at any one pick, the likelihood one way or the other is highly skewed.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Well, Jones is in his third season as well and so far has only gotten significant playing time as an inside rusher in subpackages. I'm sorry but that is disappointing for a first-round pick.

He's played two full games in his third season and he's looked decent in those. Players don't have to be All-Pros at the start of their third season.

 

[easyk83]

I've posted the average weight of all 3-4 DLs and their respective defensive rankings during last offseason several times. It showed that a talented 3-4 defensive line can dominate with three guys weighting less than 300 pounds.

Of those smaller lines what are the heights and body types of those players? Are they 6'4 290 pound hyrbids like Jones or are they 6'0-6'2 290 pound DT types?

 

[PikeBadger]

It's not like I said they can't be found late. Once again, I'm just saying when picking guys later, there are not picked with expectations to be the best in the league. When they turn out that way, awesome.

Exactly my premise. We were extremely fortunate to have a crack at Matthews and be able to sign high impact players like Woodson and Peppers. Hopefully, guys like Joe Thomas and JJ Watt will one day consider coming home for the chance to get a ring.

 

[PikeBadger]

Of course that's true and there have been a lot of examples throughout the history of the league. The problem IMO is PikeBadger posts as though there's a nearly perfect correlation between draft position and talent which led him to post this: Never mind the amount of talent Thompson has acquired at WR, without using a first round choice and never mind that according to this way of thinking, Alex Smith is more talented than Aaron Rodgers.

Then you have completely misunderstood my meaning TJV. You can find very good players throughout the draft and even after the draft.

I'm just saying that the incredibly gifted high impact defensive linemen are much more likely to be found with picks 1-12 than they are at pick 26-32 which is where we're stuck every year.

A considerable amount of draft capital has been invested in the DL since 2011. Whether the guys we chose were truly not talented, were put in a scheme not suited for their talents, poorly coached, or did not mently adapt quickly to the NFL is open for debate. In terms of physical talent and natural abilities, all those DL were generally considered to be more talented than all of our WR picks in relation to their peers in their respective draft classes. Guys like Nelson, Cobb, Montgomery and J. Jones didn't slip down the draft board like Rodgers did, and D. Jones, Perry, Worthy, Raji were all drafted approximately where they were projected.

Yes, I know that Nelson, J. Jones and Raji were chosen before 2011.

 

[TJV]

Again, this is what you posted:

Imo, Trgovac has been given more talent to work with than any other position coach on the team.

Not that Trgo has been given more players 'generally considered to be more talented'. Your statement was declarative and without any qualification. I view that statement to be demonstrably false. And the 'considered" qualification you provide in the above post points out where I think you are off in your thinking. It was no comfort to, it made no difference whatever to the Chargers and to whoever the QB coach was when Ryan Leaf was picked #2 overall, that he was considered to be more talented than every QB taken after him in the draft. It made no difference to the Packers or their OL coach how talented Mandarich was considered to be, etc., etc. etc.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The 2014 AP All Pro team included 12 offensive players, 12 defensive players, and 3 specialists (place kicker, punter, kick returner) for 27 players in all.

So, if 12 of those guys were top 12 picks, that 44% of the players out 5% of the 224 annual picks (excluding compensatory picks and picks lost to penalties which I'm not going to bother to count).

Some further adjustments are needed.

The only place kicker to be drafted in the top 12 in NFL history was Charlie Gogolak in 1966.

No punter has ever been drafted in the top 12 in NFL history.

No fullback or center has been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years, which is as far back as I looked for those positions.

Only 2 OGs have been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years: Warmack and Cooper in 2011.

Only 6 RBs have been drafted in the top 12 over the last 10 years: Richardson, Spiller, Matthews, Moreno, McFadden and Lynch. Among those, only Richardson, Spiller and Matthews were in the last 6 drafts, and only Richardson in the last 5, with RB shelf lives being notoriously short.

I did not consider kick returners since it conceivable a top 12 pick would make All Pro as a side job, such as Pat Peterson in 2011.

So, of the 27 positions, PK, P, FB and C need to be thrown out because there were no top 12 picks at those positions over the last 10 years. Expecting a top 12 pick at OG or RB would be a big stretch given how few there have been. It should be no surprise that none of the 2014 All Pros at those positions were top 12 picks.

That leaves 21 positions where the top 12 picks are highly concentrated, or at least not very thinly concentrated. On that basis 57% of last season's All Pros came out of the top 5% of the picks.

That 43% would come out of the other 95% of the picks should not be surprising, but clearly when looking at any one pick, the likelihood one way or the other is highly skewed.

I didn´t consider specialists so there were actually nine top 12 picks that made the All-Pro team last season.

He's played two full games in his third season and he's looked decent in those. Players don't have to be All-Pros at the start of their third season.

He doesn´t have to be an All-Pro but teams expect a first-round pick to be a starter by their third season.

Of those smaller lines what are the heights and body types of those players? Are they 6'4 290 pound hyrbids like Jones or are they 6'0-6'2 290 pound DT types?

Jones is listed at 6-4, 285. I really don´t have the time at the moment to do that for every team playing a 3-4 at the moment but the Cardinals started Calais Campbell (6-8, 300) and Darnell Dockett (6-4, 290) at defensive end in 2013 and led the league in rushing yards allowed.

 

[PikeBadger]

Again, this is what you posted: Not that Trgo has been given more players 'generally considered to be more talented'. Your statement was declarative and without any qualification. I view that statement to be demonstrably false. And the 'considered" qualification you provide in the above post points out where I think you are off in your thinking. It was no comfort to, it made no difference whatever to the Chargers and to whoever the QB coach was when Ryan Leaf was picked #2 overall, that he was considered to be more talented than every QB taken after him in the draft. It made no difference to the Packers or their OL coach how talented Mandarich was considered to be, etc., etc. etc.

Good points TJV. I especially shouldn't have been so declarative. I'll take your thoughts into consideration and try to craft something that better reflects my thoughts on the D-Line.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I didn´t consider specialists so there were actually nine top 12 picks that made the All-Pro team last season.

How do you get from 12 to 9 when only one specialist (Pacman Jones) was a top 12 pick? That does not add up (or subtract up as the case may be).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How do you get from 12 to 9 when only one specialist (Pacman Jones) was a top 12 pick? That does not add up (or subtract up as the case may be).

I only considered offensive and defensive players. Out of those 24 guys 15 were drafted outside of the top 12 selections.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I only considered offensive and defensive players. Out of those 24 guys 15 were drafted outside of the top 12 selections.

I took your original count of 12 at face value without checking it. You were wrong in that count, then? I suppose I should check your revised 9 count to find out for myself the correct number, but I won't.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I took your original count of 12 at face value without checking it. You were wrong in that count, then? I suppose I should check your revised 9 count to find out for myself the correct number, but I won't.

I never said anything about 12 top-12 draft picks having made the All-Pro team last season. You assumed that because you included the three specialists which I didn't.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I never said anything about 12 top-12 draft picks having made the All-Pro team last season. You assumed that because you included the three specialists which I didn't.

I see, and stand corrected.

So if we throw out C, FB, G and RB, where there have been none or few top 12 picks, that makes 9 out of 20, or 45% of last year's All Pros drawing from 5% of the picks.