Jets release Le’Veon Bell.

[Pokerbrat2000]

While I am not that big of a Le'Veon Bell fan, I think this made the Chiefs just that much stronger. Chiefs starter Damien Williams did a COVID opt out before the season and the Chiefs running game has only been average. Bell being back on a winning team has to be very motivating for him. Smart move by the Chiefs, don't just sit idle, improve anyway that you can.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While I am not that big of a Le'Veon Bell fan, I think this made the Chiefs just that much stronger. Chiefs starter Damien Williams did a COVID opt out before the season and the Chiefs running game has only been average. Bell being back on a winning team has to be very motivating for him. Smart move by the Chiefs, don't just sit idle, improve anyway that you can.

KC rookie Edwards-Helaire is on pace for 1,640 scrimmage yards, 1,100 on the ground and 540 in the air, comparable to Aaron Jones last season, a key difference being E-H has only one TD.

Bell would have to return to his old form to displace E-H as the starter which means he has to show his jump cut bread and butter that's not been on display since since 2017. Will he undergo a renaissance behind a better line, with a better collection of weapons defenses have to worry about? Maybe some. Not all.

The Chief's play here relates to depth and rotation. There's was no productive option behind E-H. And Bell is on a one year contract 11/16 of which probably isn't costing KC a whole lot. Given E-H has not been getting in the end zone they may be looking (hoping) for a guy who can add some red zone productivity. Of course this is a guy who forced himself out of New York because of lack of snaps. How happy is he going to be not being the #1? He says he's about the winning now. Well, that would be a dramatic change!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bell would have to return to his old form to displace E-H as the starter which means he has to show his jump cut bread and butter that's not been on display since since 2017. Will he undergo a renaissance behind a better line, with a better collection of weapons defenses have to worry about? Maybe some. Not all.

Oh I agree with you, but I think Bell is a definite upgrade for the Chiefs and gives them more of a 1-2 punch at RB than they previously had. I would also say that much like the Packer offense, the Chiefs offense is so diverse that it has the potential to make players just that much better. I predict that Bell, who is only 28, has a big chip on his shoulder and is going to be giving this particular job all he has. As you pointed out, he wasn't too happy in NY, but had the excuse of being on a bad team, he no longer has that excuse.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I predict that Bell, who is only 28, has a big chip on his shoulder and is going to be giving this particular job all he has.

He may be 28 but he's got a lot of mileage. He wouldn't be the first back with 406 touches in a season who started downhill or started getting injured. I thought the year off might have had some restorative affect after that high touch season but there have not been any signs of that regardless of the sh*tty offense where he's been playing.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think a lot of us said it back when he was sitting out as a Steeler, this is the potential pitfall of how much some of these guys get paid without even stepping onto the field. Would another team have had the same result with him as the Jets did? Not sure, but this will be yet another cautionary tale for those teams that think they are getting a great bargain on a once great player. I had to laugh when I found this old article, the writer calling this a steal for the Jets after they inked him to a four-year, $52.5 million deal.

https://sny.tv/articles/how-jets-st...lls-contract-further-proves-they-won-the-deal

 

[RRyder]

Oh I agree with you, but I think Bell is a definite upgrade for the Chiefs and gives them more of a 1-2 punch at RB than they previously had. I would also say that much like the Packer offense, the Chiefs offense is so diverse that it has the potential to make players just that much better. I predict that Bell, who is only 28, has a big chip on his shoulder and is going to be giving this particular job all he has. As you pointed out, he wasn't too happy in NY, but had the excuse of being on a bad team, he no longer has that excuse.

So 36 for most other positions

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So 36 for most other positions

?? No clue what you mean. I hope 28 isn't that old for a RB, Aaron Jones will be 26 in less than 7 weeks.

 

[RRyder]

?? No clue what you mean. I hope 28 isn't that old for a RB, Aaron Jones will be 26 in less than 7 weeks.

28 is indeed starting to get old for a RB. 33-34 might of been a lil more accurate admittedly though

RBs have a notoriously short shelf life so Jones even at 26 is probably middle aged

 

[GleefulGary]

28 is indeed starting to get old for a RB. 33-34 might of been a lil more accurate admittedly though

RBs have a notoriously short shelf life so Jones even at 26 is probably middle aged

The thing going for Jones is that his first couple years were pretty low usage. That helps.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

28 is indeed starting to get old for a RB. 33-34 might of been a lil more accurate admittedly though

Bell had a lot of carries (321) in 2017 as a Steeler. However, he took 2018 off and because of that, over the last 3 years, has a total of 251 carries. So I wouldn't worry to much about him being 28. If the Chiefs got him at a decent price, which I assume that they did, I would be happy as a Chiefs fan. Hell, if Williams or Jones had gotten hurt, depending on that price, I might have loved seeing him in Green Bay.

 

[GleefulGary]

Bell had a lot of carries (321) in 2017 as a Steeler. However, he took 2018 off and because of that, over the last 3 years, has a total of 251 carries. So I wouldn't worry to much about him being 28. If the Chiefs got him at a decent price, which I assume that they did, I would be happy as a Chiefs fan. Hell, if Williams or Jones had gotten hurt, depending on that price, I might have loved seeing him in Green Bay.

For his career, Bell has averaged ~24 touches per game, which over a 16 game season is about 380 touches per season. Now you’re correct in that the past couple years he’s been rather low usage bc of the contract issues, and so called injuries.

Bell has been used hard from when he came in the league. He might be 28, but he’s got just under 1900 career touches. I wouldn’t trust his body to hold up much longer.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Bell had a lot of carries (321) in 2017 as a Steeler. However, he took 2018 off and because of that, over the last 3 years, has a total of 251 carries. So I wouldn't worry to much about him being 28. If the Chiefs got him at a decent price, which I assume that they did, I would be happy as a Chiefs fan. Hell, if Williams or Jones had gotten hurt, depending on that price, I might have loved seeing him in Green Bay.

Bell has touched the ball 2,623 in college and the NFL so far. That's a lot of mileage.

As a comparison, Jones is currently at 1,343.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bell has touched the ball 2,623 in college and the NFL so far. That's a lot of mileage.

As a comparison, Jones is currently at 1,343.

I never said he didn't have a lot of total mileage, I said that in the last 3 seasons, one which he sat out, he doesn't have a lot of carries (251). Adrian Peterson who many predicted was washed up, is 35 and has 3090 NFL career carries and with college 3,838 carries, so it is actually plausible that Bell (1493 NFL carries) has some gas left in his tank. Also, really hard to say too much in favor or against this signing until we know what the Chiefs signed him for.

 

[Dantés]

Bell may or may not have some more left than what he showed in NY. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did and it showed up in KC.

But arguing on the basis of a crazy outlier like Adrian Peterson makes absolutely no sense.

Should we give Aaron Jones an 8 year deal because AP exists?

 

[HardRightEdge]

RB longevity is not just a function of total touches, whether you count college or not. You need to look at high water marks. One high touch season often leads to decline. Whether that is just physical or maybe mental would vary from one player to another. Big contracts often follow those seasons. Funny things can happen when a guy reaches his lifelong goal.

Here are the historical league leaders in touches.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/touches_year_by_year.htm

Looking at the last 10:

2019 - McCaffrey in his 3rd. season- All Pro - injured in 2020
2018 - Elliott in his 3rd. season - Pro Bowl - yards per touch dropping from 5.3 to 5.0 to 4.8 this year
2017 - Bell in his 5th. season - All Pro - no need to recap that
2016 - David Johnson in his second season - All Pro - missed 15 games in 2016 with decline to follow
2015 - Peterson in his 9th. season - freak of nature recovery from ACL - All Pro - missed 13 games the following season with decline to follow
2014 - Murray in his 4th. season - All Pro - good season in 2016 between off years in 2015 and 2017, then retired
2013 - McCoy in his 5th. season - All Pro - he kinda broke the mold - he had several good seaons after that though nothing to match that All Pro year
2012 - Foster in his 4th. season - All Pro - missed 8 games the following year, followed by a good season, then finished. Second time was not a charm; see 2010 below
2011 - Jones-Drew in his 6th. season - All Pro - missed 11 games the following year then sharp decline
2010 - Arian Foster the first time in his 2nd. season - All Pro mold breaker given what followed

In short, if you paid these guys top money after those seasons it would have been a mistake with the exceptions of McCoy and Foster the first time around. McCaffrey is following that pattern.

These numbers don't include playoffs and I'm not going back to figure that out. Some of those guys were not so burdened. There is a clear message. If you're contemplating an All Pro or Pro Bowl-caliber running back as a potential signing, here or in your fantasy league, add up the touches including playoffs and if they are pushing the high 300's or into the 400's, you ought to think twice about the cost vs. decline risk, injury or otherwise.

Derrick Henry is the current cautionary tale, on pace for 428 touches. I believe Josh Jacobs is second on the list, on pace for 387 touches. Mixon is right behind. With these guys it's just a fantasy issue since none are in contract years.

Aaron Jones is on pace for 320 touches. Not bad and in light of his college + pro totals especially not bad. Pile 3 or 4 playoff games on top of that on the way to a Super Bowl appearance and there will be a serious question to be asked on top of the already serious questions.

 

[Dantés]

Generally speaking, seasons that push or exceed 400 touches tend to break players.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bell signed a one-year contract worth $1.05M according to Spotrac. This means he’ll only earn just under $680K in pro-rated base salary for the remainder of the season. The contract also comes with up to $1 million in playing time and playoff incentives.

I will repeat my earlier statement, at that price, had the Packers needed a running back, I would have jumped at Bell, despite his perceived "high mileage".

 

[Dantés]

On that deal, it would have absolutely made sense for Green Bay to acquire him. But as has been alluded to, they don’t need him.

 

[longtimefan]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30128258/leveon-bell-1-year-deal-kansas-city-chiefs-worth-169m

 

[GleefulGary]

I never said he didn't have a lot of total mileage, I said that in the last 3 seasons, one which he sat out, he doesn't have a lot of carries (251). Adrian Peterson who many predicted was washed up, is 35 and has 3090 NFL career carries and with college 3,838 carries, so it is actually plausible that Bell (1493 NFL carries) has some gas left in his tank. Also, really hard to say too much in favor or against this signing until we know what the Chiefs signed him for.

AP is an outlier. Not many last like he has.

Why are you only counting carries and not total touches?

 

[gopkrs]

Frank Gore is the guy that amazes me. He dropped down in the draft because of a terrible injury he had in college. And he is still running the ball.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Frank Gore is the guy that amazes me. He dropped down in the draft because of a terrible injury he had in college. And he is still running the ball.

Good point and I forgot about old (37) Frank.


Bell: (7 seasons)

-1493 Carries, 6199 yds.
- 381 recepts. 3160 yds.

Peterson: (14 seasons, 2 very short)

-3090 Carries, 14,461 yds.
- 203 rec. 2,396 yds.

Gore: (16 seasons)

-3612 Carries, 15,551 yds
-470 rec. 3,907 yds

 

[swhitset]

Bell signed a one-year contract worth $1.05M according to Spotrac. This means he’ll only earn just under $680K in pro-rated base salary for the remainder of the season. The contract also comes with up to $1 million in playing time and playoff incentives.

I will repeat my earlier statement, at that price, had the Packers needed a running back, I would have jumped at Bell, despite his perceived "high mileage".

normally I want no part in big named players like Bell... but at that price, there isn’t much risk.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I never said he didn't have a lot of total mileage, I said that in the last 3 seasons, one which he sat out, he doesn't have a lot of carries (251). Adrian Peterson who many predicted was washed up, is 35 and has 3090 NFL career carries and with college 3,838 carries, so it is actually plausible that Bell (1493 NFL carries) has some gas left in his tank. Also, really hard to say too much in favor or against this signing until we know what the Chiefs signed him for.

It's definitely possible that Bell still has the ability to put up decent numbers but I'm skeptical about it after the way he performed with the Jets.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's definitely possible that Bell still has the ability to put up decent numbers but I'm skeptical about it after the way he performed with the Jets.

When you are the defending Super Bowl Champions and you look to be well on your way to defending that title, I think a $680K investment into someone with Bell's resume is well worth the risk of the investment. What would it cost the Packers to bring Dexter Williams up from the Practice squad, whom they have already been paying?