Jared Abbrederis

[ivo610]

Care to name a couple of those 4.7 WRs that "torched the league"?

If you have to dig deep for legendary slow receivers like Biletnikoff or Largent, I'd observe (1) the speed of the game has increased since those guys played and (2) even in their own times they were exceptions that proved the rule.

Successful 4.7 WRs are rare in the game today. The only such player that I can think of off hand is the guy I alluded to earlier as a tough-as-nails possession receiver...Anquan Boldin...who ran 4.71 at the Combine and looks about that fast on the field. But he just gets open, has hands, and takes on defenders. Again, he's an exception that proves the rule.

Now, would I rather have a 4.25 Hayward-Bay with bad hands and little utility beyond vertical routes that don't fool anybody or the 4.71 Boldin? The obvious answer is Boldin. But that's with 20/20 hindsight.

When projecting college players, it is nearly impossible to look at a 4.7 guy and say he'll have a Boldin-type career because so few have ever materialized.

You guys already named them in rice and boldin.
4.7 is on the extreme end but obviously it shows players can still excell in spite of being a bit slower than others.
Hayward beys college career did nothing for me, so a 1st round pick at the time seemed ridiculous no matter how fast he was

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I have no doubt Rice would be an outstanding receiver in today's game. But as your stat's indicate, Rice is one of the uncommon exceptions.

Curious...can you name the 5?

I suspect Fitzgerald is on the list, perhaps at 4.63. But he turned around and ran 4.47/4.51 at his pro day.

The five players are Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Kendall Wright and Michael Clayton. I think Fitzgerald wasn't included in the list because of his Pro Day 40.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The five players are Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Kendall Wright and Michael Clayton. I think Fitzgerald wasn't included in the list because of his Pro Day 40.

Kendall Wright ran 4.61 at the Combine but 4.42 at his Pro Day.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You guys already named them in rice and boldin.
4.7 is on the extreme end but obviously it shows players can still excell in spite of being a bit slower than others.
Hayward beys college career did nothing for me, so a 1st round pick at the time seemed ridiculous no matter how fast he was

Yes, it is possible over a 30 year period for two 4.7 runners to emerge as elite receivers.

Now, predict who that will be in this draft...or any other.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Kendall Wright ran 4.61 at the Combine but 4.42 at his Pro Day.

I didn't double check the list, had the information from the league's website.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, it is possible over a 30 year period for two 4.7 runners to emerge as elite receivers.

Now, predict who that will be in this draft...or any other.

Devin Funchess was the only WR to ran a 4.7 at the combine this year, but he'll project as a TE at the pro level.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Anyone hear anything about how Abbredarius knee healed?

 

[ivo610]

Yes, it is possible over a 30 year period for two 4.7 runners to emerge as elite receivers.

Now, predict who that will be in this draft...or any other.

Don't need to. I told you players have run 4.7s and torched the league. Yup, rice and boldin. I said they are on the extreme end, but prove it can be done. I never said it was common place, hell belonging in the same sentence as jerry rice isn't common place.

If speed was so important you wouldn't have heard of either of these guys. But you know this

 

[HardRightEdge]

Don't need to. I told you players have run 4.7s and torched the league. Yup, rice and boldin. I said they are on the extreme end, but prove it can be done. I never said it was common place, hell belonging in the same sentence as jerry rice isn't common place.

If speed was so important you wouldn't have heard of either of these guys. But you know this.

Speed is immensely important...up to a point...and that point is somewhere below 4.7. But you know this.

 

[ivo610]

Hey, Now you can argue with yourself! LOL

Speed is immensely important...up to a point...and that point is somewhere below 4.7. But you know this.

I'd say speed is grossly overrated when it is looked at to the exclusion of the many other factors that go into being a good football player, not just WRs.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Hey, Now you can argue with yourself! LOL

There is no inconsistency in those statements...once you put them back in context...as "up to a point" indicates.

Receivers running 4.7 is the "LOL" for teams that put that on the field...except twice in 30 years.

 

[4zone]

Man has to add some beef or he's going to be a perennial IR resident. His skills are great, he just has to survive.

 

[profile_removed]

I don't think he leapfrogs Janis, but I see him taking over the Janis role this year with Janis moving up. I definitely think we need a lot more out of Adams.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I definitely think we need a lot more out of Adams.

Adams had more receptions as a rookie than Nelson and Cobb during their first seasons and had two great games vs. the Patriots and Cowboys. I was absolutely fine with his performance last year.

 

[tynimiller]

Adams had more receptions as a rookie than Nelson and Cobb during their first seasons and had two great games vs. the Patriots and Cowboys. I was absolutely fine with his performance last year.

Bingo...to me Adams was better than both Nelson and Cobb were their first seasons easily and without question. That doesn't mean he turns out better than one or both or neither...but one cannot rule that out judging solely on first year comparisons. Solid dependable #3 capable of sliding into #2 (for injuries or breathers) is all I want out of him...and I see it as possible.

 

[SoonerPack]

Adams had more receptions as a rookie than Nelson and Cobb during their first seasons and had two great games vs. the Patriots and Cowboys. I was absolutely fine with his performance last year.

I couldn't agree more WIMM. Adams was up and down which is very common for young receivers but as you mentioned he DID show up in some huge games for us and that has to excite Packer fans. He also had the awareness to make the fake spike play at the end of the Dolphins game which shows me and more importantly 12 he has a high football IQ. This year I am expecting a better, more polished Adams and think there's a legit shot we have three 1,000 yard receivers come seasons end. He attacks the ball and is an underrated athlete. Just another great WR find for Teddy. Yaaawn. G P G!!

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

From rotoworld.com:

Driver: 4.45
Jennings: 4.42
Jones: 4.54
Nelson: 4.51
Cobb: 4.46
Boykin: 4.57
Adams: 4.51

Yeah, Jones was the slow guy among the recent starters, Boykin excepted, by a couple of ticks. He always struck me as being less than quick off the line but he had a very quick 2nd. and 3rd. gear that caught CBs by surprise.

Nelson looks faster than 4.51 because he has a 5th. gear that does not show up in the 40 yd. times...long strider/long speed that accounts for him never getting caught from behind. If they ran 100 yd. dashes at the Combine, I think Nelson's number would surprise some people.

Adams looks like a true 4.51 lacking Nelson's 5th. gear.

Cobb looks like a true 4.46...he's very quick through the first 3 gears which you see on punt returns or when running to the edge out of the backfield. He's still quick in 4th., but tops out sooner than Nelson.

Similar 40 times don't even necessarily get you the same type of runner among WRs. And that's just straight line speed. Then there's quickness out of breaks and double moves.

Other recent speedier WRs who didn't crack the roster: Charles Johnson at 4.39 and Myles White at 4.42. I'm sure there were others that don't immediately come to mind. Johnson will probably be the #2 or #3 for Minnesota depending on who they draft; White is still with the Packers after being on PS last season. In fact, I would not rule out White in the competition for the #4 and #5 spots. Clowney was a 4.36 guy. He bounced around for 5+ years, often not on a roster, and ended his career with 22 catches.

Janis ran a 4.42. But as you noted accurately with Nelsons top end speed being elite, but not showing in the 40 yard dsah. I would say Janis has every bit of high end speed as Jordy does. At 6'3" 219. (Nelson 6'3" 217). All I heard about was the circus catches one after the other from Janis. Obviously he wasnt ready for passes from an MVP on prime time, coming out of D2. Or just didnt need to risk it with nobody getting hurt....

Charles Johnson was Minnesota's #1 Wr over their 1st rounder Patterson, and their 10mil/yr ace Greg Jennings. Now he is #2 behind new 10mil/yr ace Mike Wallace. But i wouldnt consider him anything but masterfully picked by Ted, and properly played by Minnesota. A special place where no name undrafted rookies get playing time. MN.

 

[PikeBadger]

Man has to add some beef or he's going to be a perennial IR resident. His skills are great, he just has to survive.

It may not be feasible or possible. He may just have the build of a soccer player.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This year I am expecting a better, more polished Adams and think there's a legit shot we have three 1,000 yard receivers come seasons end.

While I expect Adams to make significant improvements from his rookie season it's tough to have three 1,000 yard receivers on the team, especially with a QB like Rodgers who likes to spread the ball around. This feat has only been accomplished four times in NFL history

Janis ran a 4.42. But as you noted accurately with Nelsons top end speed being elite, but not showing in the 40 yard dsah. I would say Janis has every bit of high end speed as Jordy does. At 6'3" 219. (Nelson 6'3" 217). All I heard about was the circus catches one after the other from Janis. Obviously he wasnt ready for passes from an MVP on prime time, coming out of D2. Or just didnt need to risk it with nobody getting hurt....

Charles Johnson was Minnesota's #1 Wr over their 1st rounder Patterson, and their 10mil/yr ace Greg Jennings. Now he is #2 behind new 10mil/yr ace Mike Wallace. But i wouldnt consider him anything but masterfully picked by Ted, and properly played by Minnesota. A special place where no name undrafted rookies get playing time. MN.

If I recall correctly Janis had two circus catches in camp and turned amother two shorts into TDs with his speed during the preseason playing against second- and third-stringers. His route running wasn't close to being polished enough to get on the field with Rodgers though. There's hope he has improved significantly to add another dimension to the Packers offense.

Charles Johnson was fifth in receptions, third in receiving yards and had only two TDs for the Vikings. He put up nice stats for a seventh rounder coming out of a small program but he wasn't the Vikings #1 receiver last season.

 

[PikeBadger]

Speed is immensely important...up to a point...and that point is somewhere below 4.7. But you know this.

Almost every D1 college and pro WR runs the 40 in shorts and tee in the range of 4.4 - 4.7 .... The exact number has nothing to do with how good that WR is or will become. The game isn't played in shorts and tee.

 

[tynimiller]

While I expect Adams to make significant improvements from his rookie season it's tough to have three 1,000 yard receivers on the team, especially with a QB like Rodgers who likes to spread the ball around. This feat has only been accomplished four times in NFL history.

^Truth spoken. Honestly give me in the ballpark of 6-700 yards....6-7 TDs and chalk it up as a HUGE success.

 

[SoonerPack]

While I expect Adams to make significant improvements from his rookie season it's tough to have three 1,000 yard receivers on the team, especially with a QB like Rodgers who likes to spread the ball around. This feat has only been accomplished four times in NFL history.

Agreed and I am certainly not predicting it will happen just that there is a decent enough chance that it may. Obviously the TE group and it's use will play a large role in deciding whether or not the feat can be done. In reality I could care less who catches what so long as 12 has another stellar year and pile up the W's! It would be pretty neat to make it 5 teams though... G P G!

 

[HardRightEdge]

Almost every D1 college and pro WR runs the 40 in shorts and tee in the range of 4.4 - 4.7 .... The exact number has nothing to do with how good that WR is or will become. The game isn't played in shorts and tee.

While there's room for variation between game speed and track speed, to deny strong correlation goes counter to the evaluations of the 32 teams of experts in the league, or a review of the NFL WR stats year or after year.

I wouldn't quibble about 0.10 based on one or two runs on one particular day, but 4.7 is too slow for the NFL except once every 15 years. If anybody thinks it's a good idea to sign 50 or 100 of those guys for the 90 man roster over a 15 year period in the hopes of finding "the one", you're certainly entitled that opinion.

And if you see a 4.7 guy outrunning D1 DBs, you better go back and check the 40 times for those DBs.

These protestations strike me as a defensive justification for the Montgomery pick, which really isn't unnecessary.

Lets look at the 2015 draft. 35 WRs were drafted.

Of those 35, the following ran 4.55 or slower as a best Combine or Pro Day time.

- Vince Mayle, round 4, Cleveland: He discovered his "sprained" hand was actually broken at the Combine, and had to switch his set hand in running a 4.67 at the Combine. The hand was in a cast at his Pro Day so he did not run. He also happens to be 6'2", 224 lbs.

- Tony Lippett, round 5, Miami: 4.61 at the Combine, 4.57/4.59 at his Pro Day. He's skinny, but he's 6'2". Pre-draft he was also considered a DB prospect though I don't know Miami's plan.

- Justin Hardy, round 4, Atlanta: 4.56 Combine, 4.57 Pro Day.

- Neal Sterling, round 7, Jacksonville: Not a Combine invitee; ran 4.62/4.64 at his Pro Day. He also happens to be 6'4", 235 lbs., a WR/TE tweener.

That's it. Except for the guy with the broken hand, the only guy who ran 4.6 or worse was the tweener Sterling. The only guy among those four who's shorter than 6'2" was Hardy who's best time, to repeat, was 4.56, and he profiles as a slot guy.

Some additional notes:

Green-Beckham Funchess ran 4.70 at the Combine, but he ran 4.50 at his Pro Day. He also happens to be 6'5", 237 lbs.

Montgomery ran 4.55 at the Combine, then 4.50 and 4.51 at his Pro Day. That's certainly in the acceptable range for a slot/possession receiver. Do you think Thompson would have taken him in the 3rd. round if his best time was 4.6? I don't.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Some additional notes:

Green-Beckham ran 4.70 at the Combine, but he ran 4.50 at his Pro Day. He also happens to be 6'5", 237 lbs.

Mostly agree with what you're saying but Green-Beckham ran a 4.49 at the combine. I suppose it's Devin Funchess you're referring to who is 6'4'' and 232.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Mostly agree with what you're saying but Green-Beckham ran a 4.49 at the combine. I suppose it's Devin Funchess you're referring to who is 6'4'' and 232.

Right, it was Funchess, and he did run 4.50 at his Pro Day. Which changes the argument not one whit.