Jamin Davis (Former 1st Rounder) Picked Up - Discussion

[tynimiller]

First, I know it is very odd to set up a thread specifically for a PS pick up - but I'm so intrigued by this I decided worth it.

Let's first discuss who he was (prospect wise)...

Jamin Davis - exploded onto the college scene for Kentucky in 2020 when he was given the full time starting role on the team as an off ball LB. That season he was one of the best at his position but honestly went somewhat unnoticed to many. I believe part of that was due to the fact he was only a third year guy, many suspected he might not even declare...other factors were that Kentucky just is an afterthought to many. That said, those that live prospect watching knew of him at least and many had him on their radar as a top 100 or top 150 type prospect. Then the off season started, and as more film could be watched - slowly you kept hearing Jamin Davis's name climbing folks ladders. My one connection in GB yesterday confirmed that he was 100% on GB's board that year (no I never ask specifics so don't ask and I don't nickle and dime him for info). Would he have been a Packer had he not been picked at 19 that year...who knows and doesn't matter at this point.

Anyways, this young man confirmed that he was an INCREDIBLY gifted physical specimen during testing. Folks this year raved about Cooper and how insanely gifted of an athlete he showed he was...well I'll break some news to you, just purely from a physical abilities perspective Cooper is looking up to Davis.

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From an athleticism perspective there is not much else you can hope to have in a prospect....mix in how at times he exhibited an incredible nack for diagnosing a play and attacking it with such a fury it reminded you of a Polamalu type play.

BUT for all the big plays, violent attacking and block shedding abilities he exhibited - there were two things many were concerned with:

- Just one year as a starting off ball linebacker. His second season in KY, he did AMAZING as well, BUT it is much easier to be that depth/situational type backer going in in sub packages with less to have to digest. With just the one year in 2020 to show, was it enough to truly illustrate a maturation for the position?

- To go along with the above...in 2020 for every play where he seemed to know what was coming and just destroy plays single handedly...there were snaps where he clearly had diagnosed it wrong...and the delay he exhibited in recovery to a new diagnosis and attack plan clearly lagged what you would hope your off ball LB could do. It is going to happen every game where you as a defender read one thing and think 'x' is happening only mid-play you discover that not to be the case and you have to quickly respond - that reactive diagnosis, change and attack is crucial separation of average to good to great off ball backers.

As already discussed he ended up going 19th overall that year and the second off ball after Micah Parsons (12th).

Time with the Commanders

This is where it gets interesting. Jamin came into the league and played 581 snaps his rookie year for the Commanders. For comparison to someone this fanbase knows well, Quay came in and his first year played 846 games. However, Quay was the starter in all but one game his rookie year, Jamin only started 8 games for the Commanders. That tells me that despite him not being the starter at first he did well enough to become the starter mid season. His rookie year though he graded out for reference just under 50.0 PFF (Quay was just over 50 his rookie year for reference).

Davis's second season in Washington he progressed A LOT. His snap count grew to over 800 (833) and started every game he was active but one. He had 9 TFLs, 13 total pressures...only gave up 1 TD in coverage and his overall PFF grade rose to 62.9 but most impressive was his tackling graded out at 75.7.

Davis's third season was even more impressive. His coverage grade was the only thing that stayed the same at 56.5, but his pressure grade, tackling grade and run defense grade all increased and were 71+ ratings. Of offball LBs with 700 or more snaps he graded out as the 28th best per PFF overall...15th in run defense...11th in tackling and 20th in pressure.

January of 2024 Washington fires the HC and a new regime takes hold....

In the off season they sign Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu plus draft Jordan Magee....and inform Davis he will be moving to Edge/OLB position.

This season in the new position he put forth some solid outings but honestly quite quiet overall...he has this year played the run very well, but only got snaps five of the games and only 86 snaps altogether on defense....eventually released.

The Oddity of clearing waivers and no trade...

I'll be honest it strikes me as very odd Washington didn't just trade him for a conditional 7th or something like that. Ooober athletic guys with high ceilings that honestly have his limited but fairly solid experience don't happen everyday. So is there character stuff we don't know about....only staff's talking would?? I have tapped into my limited contacts and even backwards into my scouting contacts to see if anyone had character flags on him - one did respond that folks at KY told him he was an undisciplined young man and a team he knew felt he interviewed terrible. Okay.....that could mean lots of things but could explain no one grabbing him sooner.

We've seen more often than not guys that fail to absorb the NFL speed, playcalls, commitment to the craft it takes and despite all the gifts in the world fade away into players of the past forgotten. BUT, we've also seen change of scenery...another and perhaps final chance make guys realized and take the craft more serious.

IF Davis does have character or professionalism issues - a place like Green Bay where arguably there is less distractions than many places, could be the precise change of scenery and change he needs.


Future...

Hard to predict, but worst case of course he never is elevated and perhaps isn't even on the PS by the year's end...however, just as Brenton Cox has found a refuge in GB for a change of direction hopefully...maybe Davis has as well. Maybe GB can in their system allow him to cook as they say in sub packages where he doesn't have to do too much at first...and if he reclaims the path he seemed on as an off ball backer in Washington ala 2021 and into 2022...he could be just another piece in the Hafley turnover at off ball.

Oh....interestingly odd stat....he has barely played Special Teams. 15 snaps this year and 34 last year is all.....he is FAR TOO athletic of a dude to not be a potential Bisaccia pupil on coverage teams....that I say is his path as well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I knew I could count on you @tynimiller to start this thread!

I'm intrigued by Davis as well. I will admit, I knew absolutely nothing about him until yesterday and today.

Besides picking up a very athletic player, that was stuck in a talented depth chart, I think Gute did what he always seems to, give the Packers some options. Will Davis be used as a LB or a DE? I'm not sure, but I am leaning more towards him being put back at LB. From what it sounds like, he got pushed out of that position by guys like Bobby Wagner and other talented LB's. I am actually a bit surprised that the Commanders waived him, on half way through a season, where he had very few opportunities to prove himself at his new position as a DE.

Seems like the Packers have soured a bit on Walker, and rightfully so. His time here so far has been way more lows than highs. Possibly a guy like Davis pushes him a bit. I like what Cooper and Wilson have added to the LB group and I think Cooper has the ability to develop into a solid player.

If nothing else, Davis is a good depth piece, with a potentially large upside.

 

[Krabs]

I post my thoughts in a different thread, but I don't see this guy ever seeing the field. It's a pretty harmless signing due to it just being a PS player. What I have heard and read is that his career is pretty much over. His play on the field has deteriorated and he was supposed to go to jail for 180 days, but that got suspended.

I think people fall in love with the phrase, "former 1st round pick". Again, it's fine they signed him. It really doesn't affect that much. I do appreciate the write up though @tynimiller and don't mean to crap on it. I just think it really isn't a big move. As I said earlier, if they really want to improve the starters, or main rotational players, they are going to have to give up some draft capital or personnel. Maybe a combo. I don't believe this move helps the roster at all.

 

[tynimiller]

I post my thoughts in a different thread, but I don't see this guy ever seeing the field. It's a pretty harmless signing due to it just being a PS player. What I have heard and read is that his career is pretty much over. His play on the field has deteriorated and he was supposed to go to jail for 180 days, but that got suspended.

I think people fall in love with the phrase, "former 1st round pick". Again, it's fine they signed him. It really doesn't affect that much. I do appreciate the write up though @tynimiller and don't mean to crap on it. I just think it really isn't a big move. As I said earlier, if they really want to improve the starters, or main rotational players, they are going to have to give up some draft capital or personnel. Maybe a combo. I don't believe this move helps the roster at all.

FTR never said it was a big move.

I also just discovered the driving issues. Doesn't really change anything I wrote at all, only strengthens perhaps the you hope the change of scenery flips that switch that is needed to be switched and if not, you are out literally nothing.

Also I don't think anyone expected he just waltz in and be a "starter or main rotational player" out the gate. I personally unless injury occurs don't expect much to blossom from this until 2025 in truth unless he proves ST capable...he has to prove he is committed to football first.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

only strengthens perhaps the you hope the change of scenery flips that switch that is needed to be switched and if not, you are out literally nothing.

I agree with this assessment and guessing if Gute gets pushed on the signing, it will be right at the top of his responses.

"This kid has a ton of talent, but has made some bad choices off the field that directly hurt his career. We are hoping that a change in environment and teammates, changes his focus and gets him back to playing the kind of football that we know that he can."

 

[McKnowledge]

I think that is a smart and prudent move by Gute.

Athletic LBs are much needed as the weather turns.

Pure speculation...there was a new regime near DC, and Davis didn't fit the vision of the coaching staff.

Sometimes, another's loss is another's gain. Let's hope this is the case.

Excited that Green Bay has improved the LB depth without overspending. Solid move.

 

[Krabs]

FTR never said it was a big move.

Didn't mean to convey that you did.

I also just discovered the driving issues. Doesn't really change anything I wrote at all, only strengthens perhaps the you hope the change of scenery flips that switch that is needed to be switched and if not, you are out literally nothing.

I totally agree. It's a harmless signing. I just don't think it will amount to much. I'm just saying that if they really want to make their roster better they need to make a move with starters or high rotational players. For example, Crosby would be a huge move. They would have to give up a lot for a guy like that. A move of that magnitude would change the outlook of the defense entirely.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For example, Crosby would be a huge move. They would have to give up a lot for a guy like that. A move of that magnitude would change the outlook of the defense entirely.

I like the idea, but not the outcome. Also, Mark Davis is a bumbling idiot, but he has been pretty clear on not trading Crosby. I think you are right on Maxx improving the Packers D, but I think the cost in draft picks and his new contract (he would demand one), wouldn't be worth the long term outcome of doing it.

 

[tynimiller]

Didn't mean to convey that you did.

I totally agree. It's a harmless signing. I just don't think it will amount to much. I'm just saying that if they really want to make their roster better they need to make a move with starters or high rotational players. For example, Crosby would be a huge move. They would have to give up a lot for a guy like that. A move of that magnitude would change the outlook of the defense entirely.

Maxx is a favorite player of mine off the edge but this would NOT be supported by me.

You don't need to bring in a guy that would instantly be your BEST edge player currently (yes he is better than Gary for those reading this). BUT a trade for a Jadeveon Clowney from Panthers who would even have a team friendly option in 2025 if he performs well, bolsters the edge room with experience and still has gas in the tank...love to see him play for a SB and we by far and above offer a better chance.

Khalil Mack is another guy type I'd say go for, merely by type not saying Chargers would move him as they are not out of contention like the Panthers are.

A cornerback like Denzel Ward or Newsome from the Browns would also equally help tremendously.


I don't believe we make a similar move for a starting level off ball LB personally...the team doesn't dislike what Quay offers when healthy and Eric Wilson is playing atypical unicorn level ball from what he has typically and Cooper has massive growing pains but man when he is firing he is clearly a playmaker.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Maxx is a favorite player of mine off the edge but this would NOT be supported by me.

You don't need to bring in a guy that would instantly be your BEST edge player currently (yes he is better than Gary for those reading this). BUT a trade for a Jadeveon Clowney from Panthers who would even have a team friendly option in 2025 if he performs well, bolsters the edge room with experience and still has gas in the tank...love to see him play for a SB and we by far and above offer a better chance.

Khalil Mack is another guy type I'd say go for, merely by type not saying Chargers would move him as they are not out of contention like the Panthers are.

A cornerback like Denzel Ward or Newsome from the Browns would also equally help tremendously.


I don't believe we make a similar move for a starting level off ball LB personally...the team doesn't dislike what Quay offers when healthy and Eric Wilson is playing atypical unicorn level ball from what he has typically and Cooper has massive growing pains but man when he is firing he is clearly a playmaker.

I agree and I know @Krabs probably wasn't peddling a trade for Crosby, but the Packers won't and don't need to mortgage their long term future on one player like Crosby. The defense is playing pretty well and improving by small steps each week.

I like the Clowney acquisition the best. Have always liked what that guy brings. If Gute is even thinking about it though, he better do it sooner, than later, because I guarantee you, the Packers aren't the only team trying to get Clowney.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree and I know @Krabs probably wasn't peddling a trade for Crosby, but the Packers won't and don't need to mortgage their long term future on one player like Crosby. The defense is playing pretty well and improving by small steps each week.

I like the Clowney acquisition the best. Have always liked what that guy brings. If Gute is even thinking about it though, he better do it sooner, than later, because I guarantee you, the Packers aren't the only team trying to get Clowney.

One other name out there.....Chase Young...three teams over the last year essentially - he seems far far too good to have not found that home yet. With Preston aging and Gary who knows what....I wonder what it would take to rent Chase for a year equity to them wise (he actually would cost us less than $2M this year)....if he performs and loves GB...whose to say Gute and Russ can't find a deal for a two or three year thing with him? If not big whoop...compensatory pick is likely.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One other name out there.....Chase Young...three teams over the last year essentially - he seems far far too good to have not found that home yet. With Preston aging and Gary who knows what....I wonder what it would take to rent Chase for a year equity to them wise (he actually would cost us less than $2M this year)....if he performs and loves GB...whose to say Gute and Russ can't find a deal for a two or three year thing with him? If not big whoop...compensatory pick is likely.

Yeah, Chase too. I saw an article earlier today talking about what he would mean to the Bears.

I think the deal breaker with Chase VS Clowney would be the cost and payout. I doubt the Saints have called it a season yet, but maybe close. Their remaining schedule looks very soft, so I can see them thinking they could still be a playoff team. So acquiring Chase might take more than a team wants to give the Saints. Also, maybe even more of a negative, given he is on a 1 year $13M deal, it could be a short term rental.

Whereas, the Panthers, they were in build mode before the season even started. Clowney is a 31 year old Vet on a deal that goes through 2025. However, the cap hit for the Panthers in 2025 is pretty steep ($14M) for a veteran with that much wear on his tires. They would save a lot of cap by trading him now. On the other side of such a trade, the Packers would get a pretty decent DE for just under $9M for a season and a half. That would be a risk I would take over the cost to acquire Young for the rest of this season.

Now if the Saints just wanted a mid to late round pick (4th-7th) and Young would sign a reasonable new deal, that keeps him a Packer for 3-4 years, I'm listening.

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah, Chase too. I saw an article earlier today talking about what he would mean to the Bears.

I think the deal breaker with Chase VS Clowney would be the cost and payout. I doubt the Saints have called it a season yet, but maybe close. Their remaining schedule looks very soft, so I can see them thinking they could still be a playoff team. So acquiring Chase might take more than a team wants to give the Saints. Also, maybe even more of a negative, given he is on a 1 year $13M deal, it could be a short term rental.

Whereas, the Panthers, they were in build mode before the season even started. Clowney is a 31 year old Vet on a deal that goes through 2025. However, the cap hit for the Panthers in 2025 is pretty steep ($14M) for a veteran with that much wear on his tires. They would save a lot of cap by trading him now. I the other side of such a trade, the Packers would get a pretty decent DE for just under $9M for a season and a half. That would be a risk I would take over the cost to acquire young for the rest of this season.

Now if the Saints just wanted a mid to late round pick (4th-7th) and Young would sign a reasonable new deal, that keeps him a Packer for 3-4 years, I'm listening.

Completely. Clowney acts as a back up and likely tiny bit of leverage against Preston's contract staying as it is written and hitting us next year for $17M if as is (when cut would save us 7+...)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Completely. Clowney acts as a back up and likely tiny bit of leverage against Preston's contract staying as it is written and hitting us next year for $17M if as is (when cut would save us 7+...)

Definitely the kind of low cost, veteran pickup that I would support.