Is this the worst draft in this decade for the Packers?

[Dantés]

It's helpful now and then to look back at old draft classes from the Packers and from other NFL teams.

What you'll learn is that getting 2 good players (starters or key contributors) is pretty typical. Getting 3 is a good draft. Getting 4+ is a great draft.

This draft is somewhat unique in that the first player taken is meant to be the next franchise QB. If Love is successful in that regard, then this draft was a success in the long term regardless of what happens with the rest of the players. That's just the reality of how important the position is.

 

[Spanky]

Bears, Lions, and especially Vikings fans have been getting a lot of jollies out of laughing at the Packers draft class. Imagine if Love ends up being another great QB... the Packers will have gone from 1992 to ~2035 with an unbroken string of great quarterbacks. I'm guessing they won't be laughing so hard any more.

And what if he's the next:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin III
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Paxton Lynch
or
Mitchell Trubisky?

Which is more likely?


(*all 1st round QB's since 2006. There's a lot more misses than hits)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

And what if he's the next:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin III
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Paxton Lynch
or
Mitchell Trubisky?

Which is more likely?

So are you saying that the Packers should never draft a QB again?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Conversely what if he doesn’t?
Always two sides to every argument in a world of uncertainty and “what if’s”

While I get the fact that posters are asking that question: "What if Love isn't successful, what than?". First, there are no guarantees with any pick at any position. If you can't acknowledge that, you shouldn't be watching or worried about the draft.

Second, when was the last time the Packers had a top 2 pick, which I would say is probably your best shot and still no guarantees, to find THAT guy at QB. So many teams are looking for the QB that will guide them for the next 10+ years. So you better be high up in the draft or be willing to trade the farm to get there, if you want a crack at the next Aaron Rodgers.

With all of that said, what are all the people that don't like this pick, planning on doing to replace Rodgers? How and when do you draft that next FHOF QB? Give me your scenario. "Not now" or "Not Love" aren't plans, they are reactions.

I will admit that 2020 in my mind was too early to try and find Rodgers replacement but if the Packers felt Love was a guy that they may just not get another crack at in the next 1-3 years, then I totally get the pick.

 

[Dantés]

And what if he's the next:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin III
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Paxton Lynch
or
Mitchell Trubisky?

Which is more likely?


(*all 1st round QB's since 2006. There's a lot more misses than hits)

If he's a bust at QB, then this draft is likely a low return on value regardless of what they get from the other players drafted.

 

[Pugger]

We obviously didn’t win another one with Favre, but I’d argue they certainly built a team that could/should have before he “retired”

Yes, Favre probably would have been our starter had he not "retired" after the 2007 season and who knows - he could have won another ring in GB.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, Favre probably would have been our starter had he not "retired" after the 2007 season and who knows - he could have won another ring in GB.

It is interesting how the last 30+ years have worked out for the Packers in the way of QB's and I will be the first to admit, I think I was wrong in each step of the way, as the key pieces fell into place.

1. 1988 - Packers win their final 2 games of a 4-12 season. I was so mad, because that cost them the #1 pick in the draft, which I felt should and would be Troy Aikman. The Packers ended up with the #2 and Tony Mandarich. Had the Packers drafted Aikman, the next move never happens, nor probably any of the others.
2. 1992 - Ron Wolf trades a first round pick (#19) for a party animal whose name nobody could pronounce. Don Majkowski seemed just fine to me at the time of settling for mediocrity when it came to the Packer. I had no clue what Wolf was doing going after this Brett "Fav're" guy.
3. 2005 - Aaron Rodgers is drafted with the 24th pick. I think TT is an idiot GM and doesn't realize that Favre had at least 4-5 more playing years in him.
4. 2020 - Gute makes a bold move in the draft, moving down from #30 to #26 to grab who I thought would be Patrick Queen. Instead its a QB!! I'm furious, dumbfounded and wonder what Gute is thinking.

I guess I am willing to see how #4 plays out, since I was pretty much wrong with most everything that came before it.

 

[Spanky]

While I get the fact that posters are asking that question: "What if Love isn't successful, what than?". First, there are no guarantees with any pick at any position. If you can't acknowledge that, you shouldn't be watching or worried about the draft.

My extra beef with the Jordan Love pick is that Gutey gave up a 4th to swap picks to get him. That's just dumb. Picking guys who pan out is hard so a GM needs as many bullets as possible. A 4th round pick could be the next David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, J.C. Tretter, Brady Poppinga, Davon House, Mike Daniels, or Blake Martinez.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I think the problem many have with the pick is that Love looks to be a read option type of qb. His slow release, poor accuracy and inability to find open receivers when his primary receiver is covered reminds people that he looks a lot like Mitchel Trubisky or Deshon Kizer. Being able to run is great if you have passing skills as well. Guys that tuck and run too much don't last very long. RG3 and Cam Newton come to mind and their release is much quicker than Love who winds up. When you throw 17 picks in the Mt. WEST conference it doesn't bode well to ever having success in the NFL.

 

[tynimiller]

I think the problem many have with the pick is that Love looks to be a read option type of qb. His slow release, poor accuracy and inability to find open receivers when his primary receiver is covered reminds people that he looks a lot like Mitchel Trubisky or Deshon Kizer. Being able to run is great if you have passing skills as well. Guys that tuck and run too much don't last very long. RG3 and Cam Newton come to mind and their release is much quicker than Love who winds up. When you throw 17 picks in the Mt. WEST conference it doesn't bode well to ever having success in the NFL.

And Manning has the record for most picks in the NFL. If we look at 2019 in a vacuum his stats to an extent make a ton of sense. Truth is not another prospect throws a better ball than him. Only Burrow I'd say has the touch of him. I do think some of his mechanics will be tweaked...but the way he can throw on the move is very AR, Favre or Mahomes-ish.

This isn't defense of the pick, I'm still in the camp I'd not have done it at all. However, some folks are just mislabeling Love entirely with their descriptions or clinging to just one aspect or stat.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My extra beef with the Jordan Love pick is that Gutey gave up a 4th to swap picks to get him. That's just dumb. Picking guys who pan out is hard so a GM needs as many bullets as possible. A 4th round pick could be the next David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, J.C. Tretter, Brady Poppinga, Davon House, Mike Daniels, or Blake Martinez.

or your 4th round pick could be your next J'Mon Moore, Vince Biegel, Jake Ryan, Carl Bradford, Jonathan Franklin, Jerron McMillian, Jeremy Thompson, Allen Barbre, Corey Rodgers.....

You must have really hated Gute using 2 4th round picks last year, to move up 9 spots to grab Darnell Savage? Those 2 picks were even higher than the late 4th rounder they used to move up for Love. (#114 and #118 for Savage VS #136 for Love)

My point being, you just never know what you are going to get with each and every pick, not to mention a 4th round pick can land anywhere from the top of the round to the bottom of the round. Should we never trade a 7th round pick because once upon a time Donald Driver was a 7th round pick?

 

[Mondio]

I went on record plenty before the draft, that you don't use a lot of draft capital or cap space for your back up QB when you have just invested heavily in your HOF QB. I figure, we made our bed, our investment and now it's time to build the absolute strongest team around that QB and go with it.

So, i'm not a fan of using a 1st rounder OR trading up to do it.

HOWEVER, i also realize IF he turns out to be great, it was a good pick. You don't pass by great QB's when you have a chance at them. I also realize that Gute maybe blew this pick, or this draft, maybe he didn't, but he has done enough in a short while to prove to me he isn't an idiot, or a moron, or not concerned with winning. Those takes are complete and utter garbage. The reactions of infants.

The rest of the picks? There are things to like or not. I still can't believe more people are jacked about the RB. I think he can influence the offense more than any rookie WR will do.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Idiots. I hope Rodgers sits the season and the decision makers lay in the bed they made

Seriously ???

 

[Toad1924]

[QUOTE="With all of that said, what are all the people that don't like this pick, planning on doing to replace Rodgers? How and when do you draft that next FHOF QB? Give me your scenario. "Not now" or "Not Love" aren't plans, they are reactions.[/QUOTE]

How can you expect anyone to see into the future an provide an answer to this? Many scenarios may or may not play out over the next four years related to our replacement to Rodgers. We have no idea who will "fall" in drafts or who will even be the top Qbs in the drafts over the coming years. Burrow was not a top prospect at this time last year. We don't know how current young QBs will pan out or how FA will look.

 

[Mondio]

well, it hasn't stopped them from having very strong and very emotional and very "confident" prognostications of exactly it was we just witnessed. maybe they should keep that in mind for any post they make then?

 

[Toad1924]

well, it hasn't stopped them from having very strong and very emotional and very "confident" prognostications of exactly it was we just witnessed. maybe they should keep that in mind for any post they make then?

I'm guessing this is a response to my last post.

I agree many people have written Love off far too early and are being irrational. This is different. We know Love won't play for the next 2-3 or maybe 4 years of his rookie contract. We know we were in the NFCCG last season. We know we have holes to fill. We know we have a HOF QB. It is highly debatable and highly risky to use our 1st and 4th pick on a QB. At this point it is what it is and hopefully Love works out but there is a reason for the strong local and national backlash.

Nobody in this world can give a detailed plan on how we would have found Rodgers replacement over the coming years. All people can do is list hypothetical situations.

My point being, this isn't a point against people who think we shouldn't have drafted Love.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand Brett went 8-8 almost making the playoffs...Rodgers went 6-10

Brett was a well-seasoned veteran. Rodgers was in his first season.

If you don't make the playoffs, your record matters only in how it relates to your draft status.

 

[XPack]

I agree many people have written Love off far too early and are being irrational.

Most of the anger is not against Love per se, but rather because that pick hampers immediate SB aspirations. Being playoff bound and lacking certain parts, we've not used #1 pick to strengthen current team.

 

[XPack]

With all of that said, what are all the people that don't like this pick, planning on doing to replace Rodgers? How and when do you draft that next FHOF QB? Give me your scenario. "Not now" or "Not Love" aren't plans, they are reactions.

Honestly FHOF QB pick is a gamble. I'd rather have a current SB helping pick to a potential FHOF QB pick.

 

[Mondio]

I'm guessing this is a response to my last post.

I agree many people have written Love off far too early and are being irrational. This is different. We know Love won't play for the next 2-3 or maybe 4 years of his rookie contract. We know we were in the NFCCG last season. We know we have holes to fill. We know we have a HOF QB. It is highly debatable and highly risky to use our 1st and 4th pick on a QB. At this point it is what it is and hopefully Love works out but there is a reason for the strong local and national backlash.

Nobody in this world can give a detailed plan on how we would have found Rodgers replacement over the coming years. All people can do is list hypothetical situations.

My point being, this isn't a point against people who think we shouldn't have drafted Love.

Most of us didn't want to draft Love in the 1st. Me included. I said so before the draft and just reiterated it in this thread as well. It's not about people thinking we should have went in a different direction. But I think most people can at least see the reasoning even if they don't agree with it. They don't have to agree with it. But there are a handful, and they're obvious to spot if you can still see that sort of thing, who are a little disjointed about it, and it isn't reasoning or actual thought that seems to be behind it. I think was who the person you were quoting was talking to.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I was one of those who was furious and dumbfounded by the Love pick initially. Immediately thinking that we just gave up a decent opportunity for instant improvement of a 13-3 team. Once I got down off my roof (without jumping), I started to process the pick, read about Love and listen to the guy who made it (Gute). Makes a lot more sense now then it did for the first hour after the pick was made.

Besides all of Gute's talk of Love and why he was the Packers target and BPA, I also keep falling back on the fact that there is never a guarantee that a first rounder, yet alone a #30 or in this case a #26 is going to be of immediate help. Rashard Gary is a recent and perfect example and he was a #12 pick. That isn't trying to say that we didn't possibly miss out on the next Darnell Savage, its just putting the probabilities into perspective.

QB is by far the most coveted position in the NFL, as well as the most expensive. If the Packers were able to circumvent years of trying to find their next long term starting QB, by investing a late first and late 4th pick in Love, at the expense of using those picks on other unsure picks, I have come to terms with the pick and hopefully will be able to look back in 4 years and absolutely Love the pick.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Brett was a well-seasoned veteran. Rodgers was in his first season.

If you don't make the playoffs, your record matters only in how it relates to your draft status.

Aaron was a veteran by year 4 of his career whether he started or not.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

And what if he's the next:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin III
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Paxton Lynch
or
Mitchell Trubisky?

Which is more likely?


(*all 1st round QB's since 2006. There's a lot more misses than hits)

Jordan Love is either Aaron Rodgers or Tony Mandarich. Time will tell which. I don't think there's an in between with this kid.

 

[CanadaCheese]

And what if he's the next:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin III
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Paxton Lynch
or
Mitchell Trubisky?

Which is more likely?


(*all 1st round QB's since 2006. There's a lot more misses than hits)

Getting a serviceable QB out of the draft is probably around 1 in 5 picks
Getting a HOF is probably >1 in 100+
The Farve to Rodgers back to back certainly 1 in 1000+
There are as many red flags around this pick as a Chinese Military parade for allot of reasons but only the future will tell.
The arguing and hypothesizing is moot since it’s done... I wish the kid well but I’m not going to make too many bets without allot of long odds.
Based on everything we know the likelihood of him being good is quite low but who cares.... we’re now a ground and pound team.....right?

 

[Spanky]

or your 4th round pick could be your next J'Mon Moore, Vince Biegel, Jake Ryan, Carl Bradford, Jonathan Franklin, Jerron McMillian, Jeremy Thompson, Allen Barbre, Corey Rodgers.....

You must have really hated Gute using 2 4th round picks last year, to move up 9 spots to grab Darnell Savage? Those 2 picks were even higher than the late 4th rounder they used to move up for Love. (#114 and #118 for Savage VS #136 for Love)

My point being, you just never know what you are going to get with each and every pick, not to mention a 4th round pick can land anywhere from the top of the round to the bottom of the round. Should we never trade a 7th round pick because once upon a time Donald Driver was a 7th round pick?

You make my point for me. Draft picks are hit or miss so you need as many as you can, especially the first five rounds.

I was not in favor of trading up for Savage. I think trading up is stupid. More times than not you will get burned.