How to return to contention in 2017

[RepStar15]

The only possible way we could get a 2nd round pick for Brett Hundley is if MM benches Rodgers to stay healthy during our horrible season this year and Hundley gets the start the last 4 games and wins 3 of them.

 

[Half Empty]

I like everything besides Tretter walking. He is so versitale on the line and not just a center. We need a guy that can play multiple positions up front like that protecting our QB.

The problem I read with Tretter is that he's a real starter at center and an adequate backup at G and T. He's going to want starter money, and would he get it with Linsley as an alternative real starter at center? If he didn't get it from the Pack, I assume he'd get it from someone else to be their center.

 

[adambr2]

The problem I read with Tretter is that he's a real starter at center and an adequate backup at G and T. He's going to want starter money, and would he get it with Linsley as an alternative real starter at center? If he didn't get it from the Pack, I assume he'd get it from someone else to be their center.

Yep, that's the problem with Tretter. Very versatile, but a much better center than guard or tackle . Unfortunately, center is exactly the position on the line we can most afford to lose. So it's likely going to take top center money to keep him and wind up with a serviceable guard.

 

[adambr2]

In looking at 2017, you have to start with cap commitments.

Currently, cap commitments for 2017 total $139.3 million, 10th. highest in the league. And that covers only 37 players. This more than the current top 51 contracts for 2016. Ouch.

Assuming $166.0 mil cap for 2017 (as projected by overthecap.com) and the current $9.9 mil carryover (which could shrink if more guys go on IR, that yields $166.0 + $9.9 - $139.3 = $36.6 mil in cap space.

Assuming, for the purposes of illustration, all players under contract for 2017 are retained, the following minimum necessary cap subtractions are required:

- $3 mil for the top 2 draft picks; maybe more if the Packers move higher with more losses. That brings the player count to 39 and the available cap to $33.6 mil.

- If the additional 14 players to fill out the roster were minimum salary rookies (which is hard to envision), that's $465,000 x 14 = a $6.5 mil cap subtraction. That brings available cap to $27.1 mil.

- The practice squad takes up about $1 mil in cap; to start the season at least $3 mil (preferably $5 mil) should be kept in reserve for IR replacements. Using $3 mil, that takes available cap down to $24.1 mil.

And that $24.1 mil, of course, has no subtractions for signing any free agents. That's not much.

Let's assume only Perry and Cook are resigned, with Spriggs taking over at OG. We'll need to see another game or two from Spriggs, but his play last week was a bit of an eye opener. With Lang hitting 30 years old while struggling with injuries this season and last, he might well go the way of Sitton.

I would put a conservative figure of $8 mil cap hit for Perry and Cook, with a meaningful Perry signing bonus stretched out over the term of the contract for early relief and Cook on a shorter deal. The way things seem to be going, 4 years, $40 mil may not be enough for Perry.

I would tend to lean pretty heavily toward Shields and Starks both not returning which would free up another $12M.

It was a mistake to retain Peppers this season as that additional $8M in cap carryover would have been much more valuable than his contributions this year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yep, that's the problem with Tretter. Very versatile, but a much better center than guard or tackle . Unfortunately, center is exactly the position on the line we can most afford to lose. So it's likely going to take top center money to keep him and wind up with a serviceable guard.

Linsley is a lot cheaper, for one more year anyway. He looked best as a rookie. The fact he was playing with Sitton and Lang on either side when both were healthy and near or at the top of their games might have been a factor in that rookie season. Sitton and Lang were both banged up last season.

I think Tretter is the better center all factors considered, but I don't think he'll be affordable from a cap value perspective with Linsley at least adequate.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Why is everyone obsessed with changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3. We'd have to field a completely different team to do so. Why not find a coordinator that can run a 3-4 better than Dom?

Second, why would we sign Alshon? He's never healthy and just got busted for PEDs.

I think we need to start with a new defensive coordinator, not be afraid of addressing holes with free agency, and get some better scouts on the defensive side of the ball. Our defensive picks in the draft have been mediocre to poor.

 

[Mondio]

I think Tretter is better as well. I wouldn't be so quick to let him go.

 

[adambr2]

Why is everyone obsessed with changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3. We'd have to field a completely different team to do so. Why not find a coordinator that can run a 3-4 better than Dom?

Second, why would we sign Alshon? He's never healthy and just got busted for PEDs.

I think we need to start with a new defensive coordinator, not be afraid of addressing holes with free agency, and get some better scouts on the defensive side of the ball. Our defensive picks in the draft have been mediocre to poor.

Because Alshon is really really talented, and he did play every game in 2015 and 2014, so up until last year he's stayed relatively healthy for the most part. I'm not overly concerned with the suspension. If he didn't have warts, he wouldn't be getting to free agency.

There's personnel on this defense now that are perfectly suited, in some cases more suited for a 4-3. It isn't going to take a massive defensive overhaul to run the 4-3. We already run some 4-3 from time to time.

 

[Half Empty]

Why is everyone obsessed with changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3. We'd have to field a completely different team to do so. Why not find a coordinator that can run a 3-4 better than Dom?

Second, why would we sign Alshon? He's never healthy and just got busted for PEDs.

I think we need to start with a new defensive coordinator, not be afraid of addressing holes with free agency, and get some better scouts on the defensive side of the ball. Our defensive picks in the draft have been mediocre to poor.

And that's a bad thing?

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Because Alshon is really really talented, and he did play every game in 2015 and 2014, so up until last year he's stayed relatively healthy for the most part. I'm not overly concerned with the suspension. If he didn't have warts, he wouldn't be getting to free agency.

There's personnel on this defense now that are perfectly suited, in some cases more suited for a 4-3. It isn't going to take a massive defensive overhaul to run the 4-3. We already run some 4-3 from time to time.

We would have no strong depth at DT in a 4-3 and would have to draft or sign more rotational players. We already need secondary help. We don't have a real 4-3 strong side OLB or a preferred strong side DE. This would be 2-3 years minimum for this switch.

As for Alshon, I'm indifferent to this move. Could it work? Yes. Does he have a long injury history? Yes. It would depend on how much we spent on him. I still think people want him because of his name.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

And that's a bad thing?

It absolutely is if you think logically. You can't just build a brand new defense in a year. You have to acquire pieces and that doesn't happen after one year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I would tend to lean pretty heavily toward Shields and Starks both not returning which would free up another $12M.

It was a mistake to retain Peppers this season as that additional $8M in cap carryover would have been much more valuable than his contributions this year.

Peppers being a free agent does not enter into the the numbers presented above, other than he'll need to be replaced.

Whether he was worth the $8 mil in cap is water under the bridge and 20/20 hindsight.

From my perspective, going back to before the 2015 season, copiously documented at that time and since, 2015- 2016 was the window of opportunity. That makes this season an especially acute disappointment.

As for Shields and Starks with their $12 mil savings:

Without those guys, regardless of what you think of them as players at this point, the Packers then need to come up with a shutdown corner since Randall is not that guy. Without Starks, 2 RBs are needed assuming Montgomery assumes the role of 3rd. down back, which he should. The numbers above include nothing for Lacy, assuming he departs in free agency. So it's not j2 RBs needed; one needs to be a quality lead back. Michael will prove to be a Montogomery redundancy, and a lesser one at that.

Assuming Shields cannot return, I would make the following moves:

1. Move Dix to nickel DB; Hyde will be gone in FA and he's looked pretty bad this season anyway
2. Move Randall to FS
3. use Shields savings to go into FA for a decent man coverage corner
4. draft high for a starting corner if Rollins doesn't shape up in man coverage over the remaining games

This would assume a change in regime that has the breathing room to use 2017 as a semi-rebuilding year.

With or without Shields and/or Starks, there is a lot of work to do given the available cap and the 2017 draft.

If, by chance, the Packers go in a new direction at the GM level and a 4-3 D specialist were to be brought in, Matthews would be out of a job yielding an additional $11.1 mil in cap savings to enhance the process. I'm not sure he hasn't exhausted his value at that cap number even in the 3-4, though somehow Perry plays better when he's out there even if Matthews is single teamed.

In a 4-3 D, the backfield changes or enhancements in the current 3-4 apply then as well. The D-Line would look like Perry-Guion-Daniels-Clark, assuming Clark can use that useful quickness he was drafted for to beat some OTs in the pass rush. Maybe Daniels/Clark would need to be switched, but Daniels is best as a run stuffer and his lack of length could prove to be a liability at DE. I didn't mention Pennel in the above numbers, but he'd be worth bringing back on a modest deal for DT depth. Subtract that deal from the cap number.

I think there's plenty to work with here in a 4-3, but you may need to get a bookend pass rusher to pair with Perry in a rotational role. Maybe Fackrell if he puts on some good weight.

Ryan at MLB, Martinez at OLB, Thomas at OLB (though I believe Thomas' coverage skills are overrated and would likely need replacement). The 4-3 OLB needs to defend the run in space, working off those second level blocks, cover backs and TEs, and preferably add some blitz capability.

 

[adambr2]

It absolutely is if you think logically. You can't just build a brand new defense in a year. You have to acquire pieces and that doesn't happen after one year.

I just don't think it's as difficult as you're making it out to be. The DT depth is fine with Clark, Guion, and Pennel to run a 4-3. DE is a little weaker, but Perry could likely slide right in as a 4-3 DE if re-signed, Lowry would get some consideration, and DE would be a higher priority in the draft.

It would be a process, but it doesn't mean it would take 3 years to work . When they went from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2009 that was essentially an overnight transition as well and immediately successful.

 

[Half Empty]

It absolutely is if you think logically. You can't just build a brand new defense in a year. You have to acquire pieces and that doesn't happen after one year.

How about if one thinks emotionally and forgets to include a smiley? The point was supposed to be that a whole new team might be a good idea.

 

[mradtke66]

In a 4-3 D, the backfield changes or enhancements in the current 3-4 apply then as well. The D-Line would look like Perry-Guion-Daniels-Clark, assuming Clark can use that useful quickness he was drafted for to beat some OTs. Maybe Daniels/Clark would need to be switched, but Daniels is best as a run stuffer. .

This is insane and just wrong.

All of our linemen on the roster project to either NT or DT in a 4-3. Clark, Guion, and Pennel would project to 1-technique NT, which would be fine. NT isn't that much different in a 4-3 or 3-4. The idea that Clark could play DE in a 4-3 at all, worst of all right/weak DE is so off the wall it makes me wonder if you are trolling.

Daniels is a complete player as a 3-technique DT and he would thrive in a 4-3, but he thrives now. The bigger concern I have is his backup. We have no one. 3DT is a pass rushing specialist position. Warren Sapp was the gold standard here.

Our OLBs would become the defensive ends in a new scheme. Perry would do well as the right/weak DE, which was his college position. I don't really like anyone on the roster for strong/left DE. Maybe Datone if he bulks up a bit, but I like him better at his current weight. Maybe Lowry, but he's a true 3-4 DE and would be a tweener in a 4-3. Too big for DE, too small for DT.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

I just don't think it's as difficult as you're making it out to be. The DT depth is fine with Clark, Guion, and Pennel to run a 4-3. DE is a little weaker, but Perry could likely slide right in as a 4-3 DE if re-signed, Lowry would get some consideration, and DE would be a higher priority in the draft.

It would be a process, but it doesn't mean it would take 3 years to work . When they went from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2009 that was essentially an overnight transition as well and immediately successful.

This would assume that Perry stays healthy and T-Rex arms(Lowry) would be successful. I don't like the rotational depth that leaves us with. We'd have to sign Datone too just for a body and there are no strong pass rush defensive ends in that unit. Daniels and Clark would probably do very well as DTs, with Pennel as a rotational player. However, like I said, we'd have no pass rushing defensive ends which are a premium in this league. This means we'd have to draft one or two in this draft when we already need a corner. Don't forget rookies on the defensive line take about 2-3 years to develop.

Who becomes the signal caller in the middle of the field and who has the ability to cover from a linebacker perspective? I'm guessing Martinez would be our cover linebacker. What would we do with Clay?

So now we have to draft a linebacker, one or two effective defensive ends, and a corner. That sounds great, but then we completely avoid helping our offense in the draft. We need a running back, tight end, and so more o-line depth since we'll be losing a few to free agency.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think Tretter is better as well. I wouldn't be so quick to let him go.

Somebody who needs a center for their pass-centric offense (which most are these days) will offer him good money.

Evan Dietrich-Smith (who now goes by Evan Smith; he doesn't want his daughter to have to have to deal with it ), signed with Tampa in 2014 for 4 years, $14.25 mil. Going into this offseason, there will have been 3 years of cap growth and Tretter is a better player. So, do the math.

 

[Mondio]

He'll probably be priced out, but it doesn't mean I wouldn't try

 

[Bob 61]

The Packers are in steep decline because of bad drafts and poor player development. How often are we seeing guys come in and show potential and then regress. The examples are numerous especially in the secondary. Without a change at GM the Packers will not turn it around. in fact they will continue to careen into the dust bin. We need a more active GM and perhaps a new head coach. I think MM has lost this team but most of the problems are lack of athleticism. We need to upgrade at RB, CB, LB, and get depth at guard and TE.

This whole best player available in the draft has not worked very well for us and that is TT mindset. As much as they try to down play it MM is losing respect of his players, the decline started to snowball after the playoff debacle in Seattle. So many changes need to be made , but not all of them can happen or you basically are saying your going to just rebuild. The window for AR is getting a lot smaller. I think MM still should stay on one more year to keep the continuity of the offense in tact. Capers has to go, among some of the others. Maybe Clay Mathews needs to go back to middle LB just to keep him a little more healthy. He is making a lot of money to sit out every year with a hamstring injury. It would be nice to see Shields retire before another concussion becomes permanent. Our talent pool is very thin and in my opinion some of the talent is under used for whatever reason.What once worked is not working now, the league changes every year as do teams. We have to change along with it which means this vanilla offense that we run is so damn predictable that it doesn't scare defenses. What scares them is when AR gets outside the pocket and then it becomes street-ball with receivers improvising. We have arguably one of the best QBs in the game and you are probably only going to get 1 SB out of him. Thats on the organization.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This is insane and just wrong.

All of our linemen on the roster project to either NT or DT in a 4-3. Clark, Guion, and Pennel would project to 1-technique NT, which would be fine. NT isn't that much different in a 4-3 or 3-4. The idea that Clark could play DE in a 4-3 at all, worst of all right/weak DE is so off the wall it makes me wonder if you are trolling.

Daniels is a complete player as a 3-technique DT and he would thrive in a 4-3, but he thrives now. The bigger concern I have is his backup. We have no one. 3DT is a pass rushing specialist position. Warren Sapp was the gold standard here.

Our OLBs would become the defensive ends in a new scheme. Perry would do well as the right/weak DE, which was his college position. I don't really like anyone on the roster for strong/left DE. Maybe Datone if he bulks up a bit, but I like him better at his current weight. Maybe Lowry, but he's a true 3-4 DE and would be a tweener in a 4-3. Too big for DE, too small for DT.

It's not perfect, but it is hardly insane, nor is it wrong. First of all, Perry would be the weak side #1 pass rusher. Second of all, it is not uncommon for 4-3 teams to use a big body at strong side DE with a pass rush specialist for passing downs. In fact, that's how most high pick edge rushers are used as rookies and even into the second year. Could Fackrell be that guy? He needs to put on good weight before we could find out, but that needs to happen for him at 3-4 OLB in any case, just as we said when he was drafted.

As for the 3-tech pass rusher, today we have a defense that runs nickel/dime 80% of the time with 3-tech DTs. There's Daniels and Peppers as the prime agents, the latter assumed to be gone. You have the same issue in 3-4 as in 4-3. And how good a pass rusher is Daniels in that role? We've not been getting a consistent 4 man rush for two years now without much push up the middle.

In fact, a 3-4 nickel is essentially a 4-3 with the OLBs standing up instead of down; their job is pass rush and edge contain in run defense, same as with 4-3 DEs. I don't see Perry having difficulty going back to DE, his natural position and preference coming out of college; Matthews is more problematic but he's been in gradual decline even when healthy. Now the chronic hamstring problems are catching up. His contract is becoming a growing concern.

Datone Jones is gone except on a cheap rotational deal; he's just not consistent enough to get more snaps than what he's getting. He'd be of about equal value as a 3-4 OLB/elephant or as a 4-3 DE. Lowrey is backup material only and may not be NFL caliber in regular rotation. Depth improvement is needed regardless.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This whole best player available in the draft has not worked very well for us and that is TT mindset.

"Best player available" is a fiction. Top picks have gone for obvious needs with few exceptions since the Raji/Matthews draft when converting to 3-4. You have to dig deep into the Thompson annals for Rodgers and Nelson to even begin to find plausible instances of high picks without apparent need. Even then, Favre was mumbling about retirement even at the time of the Rodgers pick.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Why is everyone obsessed with changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3. We'd have to field a completely different team to do so. Why not find a coordinator that can run a 3-4 better than Dom?

Stale mind sets. Clear the fog. Turn the page.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Stale mind sets. Clear the fog. Turn the page.

Just switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 doesn't mean we'll instantly have a good defense. What matters is having someone that can run a defense. There are plenty of successful 3-4 defenses, the number of down lineman is not what changes a bad defense to a good defense.

 

[adambr2]

I don't think we've necessarily been always drafting BPA at the expense of taking needs. If we have been drafting BPA, we haven't been doing a very good job figuring out who that is.

Just since 2011, we've wasted 1st -3rd round picks on Sherrod, Alex Green, Worthy, and Khryi Thornton, and came up with a ton of mediocrity in guys like Richard Rodgers and Davante Adams.

The jury is still out on some, but our biggest home runs in the first 3 rounds since 2011 are Clinton-Dix, Cobb, Perry , Hayward, and Lacy, and I think we can agree all are really stretching the definition of 'home run.'

Clinton-Dix is a decent safety but hasn't emerged this year the way we had hoped for a 1st round pick. Cobb looked fantastic early on and the last 2 years looked closer to 'decent slot receiver' than 'home run'. Hayward had a great start to his career but didn't impress enough the last couple years to even make us interested in retaining him. Lacy may be out of the league quickly the way he is going. The best of the bunch right now is Perry, which is really saying something about our first 3 rounds the last 5 years, when you're talking about a guy who did almost nothing on his rookie deal.

If you're going to ignore free agency and build almost exclusively through the draft, you had better be damn good at it. Thompsons early picks since 2011 have not even been close to being good enough .

 

[Sky King]

To paraphrase the old real estate axiom: The three most fundamental items of importance for ensuring an NFL team's success is talent, talent, talent.

This team does not possess enough legitimate NFL talent on it's roster, period.