How to handle Lacy

[El Guapo]

In general I think that there is little doubt that TT will draft a RB. My only reservation is that while I think he'll approach this draft with a list of position targets, he will mostly go with BPA in most rounds.

Signing Lacy to a 1yr contract is a no-brainer, because he can still be cut at the end of camp with minimal consequences. If they use Montgomery as the featured back because he can run, but mostly catch out of the backfield and pick up blitzes, then Lacy would make a great short-yardage back at his hefty weight. They still need to push him to stay in playing shape, but they aren't going to get him to be his 21 year-old weight at this point. We all want it, but that's far-fetched after what we've seen the past seasons.

At this point, having watched the Patriots in 2016, I would be fine with using Montgomery as our "James White" and Lacy as our "Lagarrette Blunt" while we develop a drafted RB.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is supposed to be a deep RB class. I can see us getting a good one with one of the 4th round picks as well as Thompson picking up a guy in the 2nd or 3rd week of free agency to complement Montgomery if he chooses not to further pursue Michaels or Lacy.

While I would be fine with using a 4th round pick on a RB, what does history say about the impact such pick would have in his first year? As I stated, if Lacy isn't resigned, TT really needs to get busy in the Free Agent Market (along with a CB and OLB) looking for a backup to Monty.

It's easy to point out all of the successful RB's that have been picked 4th round or later by teams, but my guess is that the list of failed ones is a lot longer and not something I would want to risk as the only move at RB in the off season.

I kind of view this the same as if Clay Matthews was a FA this year. Our need at OLB is high, if Clay was available to resign at a reasonable price, I would tick that box off our needs list by resigning him and not hope to fill it with a high draft pick. When you are picking late in every round, finding a guy who can step in and play immediately isn't realistic.

While you can't build a whole team with players like Lacy, having a few vets around for depth at a low no risk price could pay dividends when injuries start piling up.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In general I think that there is little doubt that TT will draft a RB. My only reservation is that while I think he'll approach this draft with a list of position targets, he will mostly go with BPA in most rounds.

Signing Lacy to a 1yr contract is a no-brainer, because he can still be cut at the end of camp with minimal consequences. If they use Montgomery as the featured back because he can run, but mostly catch out of the backfield and pick up blitzes, then Lacy would make a great short-yardage back at his hefty weight. They still need to push him to stay in playing shape, but they aren't going to get him to be his 21 year-old weight at this point. We all want it, but that's far-fetched after what we've seen the past seasons.

At this point, having watched the Patriots in 2016, I would be fine with using Montgomery as our "James White" and Lacy as our "Lagarrette Blunt" while we develop a drafted RB.

I totally agree with everything but the part about Monty being able to pick up blitzes. That is one aspect of his game, along with durability, that I am most concerned about.

Hopefully, a full off season, camp and preseason will give Monty enough time to work on some of the aspects he lacked as a RB.

 

[El Guapo]

I understand, but the kid hadn't practiced blitz pickup in how many years? Five or six? I actually didn't mean for my prior statement to come off as it did, more meaning that if he could learn to pick up blitzes he would be exactly what Rodgers needs.

Regarding picking a RB in the 4th round, I would generally agree but have heard (I'm not a draft guru) that this is a very deep draft for RBs. This year's 4th rounder might be equivalent to a normal 2nd or 3rd rounder.

 

[sdh09e44]

There´s some risk involved with signing Lacy to a contract of this sort as well as the Packers would rely on him being at least part of the running back rotation and therefore would have to get rid of another player at the position.

I think Lacy Ty Rookie, Lacy Ty Michael OR Ty Michael Rookie are all pretty much the same. Risks involved any way you go.

Let's not act like Lacy has averaged 1 ypc. He may not be the most reliable RB but he's also not completely unreliable

 

[Arthur Squires]

I think Lacy Ty Rookie, Lacy Ty Michael OR Ty Michael Rookie are all pretty much the same. Risks involved any way you go.

Let's not act like Lacy has averaged 1 ypc. He may not be the most reliable RB but he's also not completely unreliable

In the last 5 years there have been multiple rookie RBs that have stepped into starting roles and made their team better. There are probably 3-4 backs in this years draft that can do that for a team. We could draft a RB like Hunt in the 3rd and let Lacy walk and be in better shape or sign Lacy to small money deal like has been suggested for 1 year+ on this Site.

 

[Half Empty]

I think Lacy Ty Rookie, Lacy Ty Michael OR Ty Michael Rookie are all pretty much the same. Risks involved any way you go.

Let's not act like Lacy has averaged 1 ypc. He may not be the most reliable RB but he's also not completely unreliable

Like everything here, definitions. If, by reliable, you're talking about his rushing ability/impact, I don't see how anyone can say he's not - even in his real down year of 2015, he was averaging 4.1. On the other hand, if reliable refers to availability, I don't see how anyone can say he IS reliable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With the exception of DuJuan Harris there haven't been any other (iirc) RB's who have been cut (recently) and had success elsewhere... so bottom end RB talent hasn't been "loaded".

The problem being that if the Packers re-sign Lacy the team most likely won´t address running back otherwise completely relying on him staying in shape and healthy. If he´s not capable of doing it will probably be extremely difficult to adequately address the position during the season.

While I would be fine with using a 4th round pick on a RB, what does history say about the impact such pick would have in his first year?

The Bears drafted Jordan Howard in the fifth round of last year´s draft and he finished the 2016 season as the second leading rusher in the league. In my opinion running back most likely is the easiest position to make an impact early in an NFL career.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Like everything here, definitions. If, by reliable, you're talking about his rushing ability/impact, I don't see how anyone can say he's not - even in his real down year of 2015, he was averaging 4.1. On the other hand, if reliable refers to availability, I don't see how anyone can say he IS reliable.

Well said and that is the Lacy dilemma in a nutshell for me. Couple that with some unanswered questions with Monty, total uncertainty on pretty much any RB you take in the draft and you have a position that is currently very unsettled.

As far as injury reliability. Any player can get hurt and yes Lacy playing overweight probably exposes him to more injuries or at least being a bit less effective. The positive side with Lacy is that come August, the Packers would have a pretty good idea as to what kind of shape he is in and will be able to make some Roster decisions based on that. If he is in good shape, as Half Empty just pointed out, his numbers speak for themselves and I would rely on those, coupled with whatever we can get out of Monty, along with grooming a mid round rookie.

If you they don't resign Monty, I sure hope they find a decent FA RB to bring into camp with Monty, 2016 already showed us what happens to the RB position when you start trying to patch it with Rookies, UDFA's and journeymen.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Bears drafted Jordan Howard in the fifth round of last year´s draft and he finished the 2016 season as the second leading rusher in the league. In my opinion running back most likely is the easiest position to make an impact early in an NFL career.

Come on Captain, don't make me compile a list of rookie RB's that the Packers and the other 31 teams have drafted throughout the history of the NFL that didn't have an impact in their rookie years.

Can you find an impact RB in the draft? Sure you can. Do you want to rely on doing only that if you are the Packers?

The problem being that if the Packers re-sign Lacy the team most likely won´t address running back otherwise completely relying on him staying in shape and healthy. If he´s not capable of doing it will probably be extremely difficult to adequately address the position during the season.

Not sure why this would preclude them from drafting a RB? If they know the uncertainties they have with Lacy, which given the low money being tossed around is pretty obvious, a smart team prepares for the contingencies of a known uncertainty.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Can you find an impact RB in the draft? Sure you can. Do you want to rely on doing only that if you are the Packers?

Not sure why this would preclude them from drafting a RB? If they know the uncertainties they have with Lacy, which given the low money being tossed around is pretty obvious, a smart team prepares for the contingencies of a known uncertainty.

I would rather prefer to rely on a rookie backing up Montgomery than on Lacy staying in shape. If the Packers re-sign Lacy I don´t expect Thompson to spend a draft pick on a running back most likey being third on the depth chart but some undrafted rookies to compete with Crockett and possibly Michael for a spot on the 53.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Right now I am basing my opinions on resigning Lacy using risk analysis. If he can be resigned at the kind of numbers being kicked around in the media, you are possibly getting the production of much higher paid veteran RB at a reasonable low risk price (as long as there aren't a lot of guarantees in the contract). Doing so doesn't preclude you from drafting another RB, nor does it prevent you from cutting Lacy if he doesn't meet expectations. With a proper contingency plan, put together now, not in October, Lacy could end up being a bargain "FA signing".

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would rather prefer to rely on a rookie backing up Montgomery than on Lacy staying in shape. If the Packers re-sign Lacy I don´t expect Thompson to spend a draft pick on a running back most likey being third on the depth chart but some undrafted rookies to compete with Crockett and possibly Michael for a spot on the 53.

Your plan and my plan are much the same or at least could end up the same. However my plan includes drafting a RB AND Lacy. My plan B (no Lacy) would include a FA RB and drafting a RB.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Your plan and my plan are much the same or could end up the same. However my plan includes Lacy AND drafting a RB. My plan B (no Lacy) would include a FA RB and drafting a RB.

I would be fine with entering next season with Montgomery, a running back selected on day 3 of the draft as well as Crockett, Michael and some undrafted rookies to compete for the third spot on the depth chart.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would expect TT to let Lacy walk if the Packers have enough information leaning towards Lacy not being in shape or if the price to sign him isn't right. Letting him walk would potentially make the Packers eligible for a compensatory pick in 2018 and we all know how much TT likes his picks.

The scenario that adds some credence to not resigning him now, would be resigning him and than having to cut him because he didn't come to camp in shape, which would cost us that potential compensatory pick.

 

[Poppa San]

The Bears drafted Jordan Howard in the fifth round of last year´s draft and he finished the 2016 season as the second leading rusher in the league.

How much of that is having a decent running game then going with a run first offense after your top 2 QBs are out for injuries part way through the season?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

How much of that is having a decent running game then going with a run first offense after your top 2 QBs are out for injuries part way through the season?

I would think having a 5.2 yd/carry average on 252 carries is a sign of a pretty good player, especially on a "run first offense". Howard also had 29 receptions and a 10.3 average/catch.

I might trade Clay Matthews for him.

 

[Poppa San]

I would think having a 5.2 yd/carry average on 252 carries is a sign of a pretty good player, especially on a "run first offense". Howard also had 29 receptions and a 10.3 average/catch.

I might trade Clay Matthews for him.

How would you feel about 360 yards on 71 carries for 5.1yds in 5 games?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

How would you feel about 360 yards on 71 carries for 5.1yds in 5 games?

Guessing you are referring to Eddie Lacy and I like the stats, if he can stay healthy (in shape) for the whole season. That would be the big question. But with a low end contract without a lot of guarantees, I would be willing to risk it.

 

[C-Lee]

Rumors saying that he's likely going to sign a one-year deal with the Packers to "reestablish his value." An NFL agent talked to Dougherty about Lacy's value and he said his one-year deal could be worth around $2 million in incentives.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rumors saying that he's likely going to sign a one-year deal with the Packers to "reestablish his value." An NFL agent talked to Dougherty about Lacy's value and he said his one-year deal could be worth around $2 million in incentives.

Those rumors if they come to fruition, are why I think Lacy is worth the risk of resigning. Again though, will TT be willing to assume that risk and give up a potential compensatory pick in the process?

 

[Poppa San]

incentives.

Like make weight on weekly weigh-ins? Absolute sobriety? $1k/yard from scrimmage? Pro-bowl / all-pro bonus?

 

[C-Lee]

Those rumors if they come to fruition, are why I think Lacy is worth the risk of resigning. Again though, will TT be willing to assume that risk and give up a potential compensatory pick in the process?

I want Lacy on this team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Like make weight on weekly weigh-ins? Absolute sobriety? $1k/yard from scrimmage? Pro-bowl / all-pro bonus?

I could start a whole conversation (thread) on incentive based contracts, but I am sure it has been discussed ad nauseam in the past. Imagine what Clay Matthews and Shields would have earned this year and on the flip side, Montgomery if they were being paid based on performance, or lack thereof?

I would love to see more incentive based contracts and in the case of a player like Lacy, it seems to be the only way you would want to sign the guy.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers might be able to get creative using incentives if they decide to re-sign Lacy. With him only having played in five games while rushing for 360 yards and zero touchdowns last season all incentives the Packers would pay him in 2017 for stats exceeding those numbers would be deemed unlikely to be earned and therefore not count against the salary cap.