How much Luck in NFL Football?

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

My dad, when I was young always referred to some Packers wins as luck.

We just squeaked out two wins in two weeks, one with a interception and one with a missed 2-point conversion,
all within 2 minutes left in the game.

Like coach Matt L. said, he's not making any excuses for a win.

What do you think?

 

[Poppa San]

There is an element of luck in all games. When does your star defender get Covid? Why did the RB slip on the cut back. Sometimes the fumble bounces into the arms of a defender sometimes an OL. Did the ref see the tug on the jersey before the interception? or the hand on the facemask? Dang, our stud run plugger got rolled up on in the pile. Out he goes and their RB goes off for another 12 for 130 yards.

 

[ARPackFan]

“Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck.” -- Don Shula

 

[JKramer64]

Luck will probably decide who wins the SB this year with the Covid surge. Also, who can survive the injuries. The Packers have mostly overcome their injuries so far, but the OL is my biggest concern if Bakh and Turner aren't ready.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers have mostly overcome their injuries so far, but the OL is my biggest concern if Bakh and Turner aren't ready.

The run defense and special teams are way more concerning to me.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

The run defense and special teams are way more concerning to me.

I agree 100%

Watching some of those other teams in the top spot really scares me.
Tom Brady and Company are one, they're peaking at the right time.

 

[JKramer64]

After watching Dallas dismantle the WFT last night, they're the last team I want to see come into Lambeau for the NFCCG. Even with Mike McCarthy.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

After watching Dallas dismantle the WFT last night, they're the last team I want to see come into Lambeau for the NFCCG. Even with Mike McCarthy.

I watched that game.
It made Jerry Jones happy.
He just might keep fat Mike around for another year of coaching.

 

[Guacamole]

Bahktiari may not return..... https://dairylandexpress.com/2021/12/24/not-looking-good-packers-david-bakhtiari-return-season/

 

[Voyageur]

Bahktiari may not return..... https://dairylandexpress.com/2021/12/24/not-looking-good-packers-david-bakhtiari-return-season/

I thought he wouldn't be back. In fact, he will probably never dress for the Packers again. He could be a cap casualty because of the question marks on what he could bring to the table. At least the Packers could pick up a mid rounds draft pick for him, in a trade. Just spit balling here. I don't know exactly how a trade would work out, or who would want him.

 

[ARPackFan]

Knees on a big man (300+ pounds) take a lot of stress in just normal daily activity and my opinion last spring was that he was likely to miss most of the 2021 season.

It's bad luck to give huge contracts to players and them have them get seriously injured.

The bad and completely random/unpredictable part is that Bahktiari could miss the majority of the 2021 season due to his knee injury. The NFL is on the analytics bandwagon for in game decisions but I wonder how many teams use analytics for roster development and slotting contracts to positions? Is a team better off avoiding these single player mega-contracts in favor of multiple players?

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Soooo there IS luck in football, but bad for Bahktiari

 

[Schultz]

As others have explained Bakh will be a Packer next year if able to play due to the way his contract is structured. Which I believe he will. His setbacks have occurred while he has been trying to get back for this year. Once he is officially shut down he can take some time completely off and then start his re-hab when ready. I expect him to be in camp next year. All of this is my opinion.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Quite a bit is luck. Compared to most sports, there are very few plays per game and very few plays per season. Also, injury luck is a massive component. Obviously talent and skill matter more but luck is much more of a factor in football than basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, etc.

 

[Voyageur]

As others have explained Bakh will be a Packer next year if able to play due to the way his contract is structured. Which I believe he will. His setbacks have occurred while he has been trying to get back for this year. Once he is officially shut down he can take some time completely off and then start his re-hab when ready. I expect him to be in camp next year. All of this is my opinion.

I hope they can bring him back, but it's a question of risk/reward in my mind. Is the risk worth it, or would they be better off clearing some cap room, and moving on? If he doesn't play throughout the entire season, it's lost money. Cutting him, or trading him, can cut $16 mill off the cap, and when you need to clear over $63 mill in space, his name becomes part of the possible moves.

With the money these guys are getting, the whole thing is ruthless on the part of management. They have no objection to cutting ties. This is all just my opinion too. I have no idea what's going through the minds of the Packers front office.

 

[PikeBadger]

I agree 100%

Watching some of those other teams in the top spot really scares me.
Tom Brady and Company are one, they're peaking at the right time.

Really? Because of yesterday? They lost two in a row prior to yesterday.

 

[PikeBadger]

My dad, when I was young always referred to some Packers wins as luck.

We just squeaked out two wins in two weeks, one with a interception and one with a missed 2-point conversion,
all within 2 minutes left in the game.

Like coach Matt L. said, he's not making any excuses for a win.

What do you think?

Did he refer to some Packer losses happening because the other team was lucky?

Luck is not a one way street.

 

[Schultz]

Voyageur- one of the cap experts on here ( I greatly appreciate their input) have noted that cutting him next year would not save any cap space. I highly doubt anyone would trade for him with the fear that if GB is willing to trade him he could be damaged goods plus his big contract. Someone correct me if I am wrong on the cap part. The other part is my opinion.

 

[Schultz]

Did he refer to some Packer losses happening because the other team was lucky?

Luck is not a one way street.

In my neighborhood it is. Luck street runs north only.

 

[Poppa San]

Voyageur- one of the cap experts on here ( I greatly appreciate their input) have noted that cutting him next year would not save any cap space. I highly doubt anyone would trade for him with the fear that if GB is willing to trade him he could be damaged goods plus his big contract. Someone correct me if I am wrong on the cap part. The other part is my opinion.

From Spotrac

PRE-6/1 RELEASE 2022 Dead Cap: $39,304,000 2022 Cap Savings: $-16,536,000

PRE-6/1 TRADE 2022 Dead Cap: $26,304,000 2022 Cap Savings: $-3,536,000

POST-6/1 RELEASE 2022 Dead Cap: $21,768,000 2023 Dead Cap: $17,536,000 2022 Cap Savings: $1,000,000

POST-6/1 TRADE 2022 Dead Cap: $8,768,000 2023 Dead Cap: $17,536,000 2022 Cap Savings: $14,000,000

They may save a bit more if they can delay his 2022 $9.5m roster bonus until mid-June or after they trade him.

 

[Voyageur]

In my neighborhood it is. Luck street runs north only.

I see that in Poppa San's post. Still, that $14 mill potential is nothing to sneeze at. The problem is that we're going to have to eat a lot of dead cap just to get the cap down to make the max payroll allowance for 2022. We have some very serious problems after this season ends. I see no way out of us cutting the best players from the team, or trading them to regain some value, and move on.

We are in the proverbial "cap hell!"

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Watching some of those other teams in the top spot really scares me.
Tom Brady and Company are one, they're peaking at the right time.

The Bucs were shut out at home by the Saints only two weeks ago.

After watching Dallas dismantle the WFT last night, they're the last team I want to see come into Lambeau for the NFCCG. Even with Mike McCarthy.

It might be smart to wait and see how the Cowboys look against the Cardinals on Sunday before putting too much stock into their performance against Washington.

I thought he wouldn't be back. In fact, he will probably never dress for the Packers again. He could be a cap casualty because of the question marks on what he could bring to the table. At least the Packers could pick up a mid rounds draft pick for him, in a trade. Just spit balling here. I don't know exactly how a trade would work out, or who would want him.

The Packers would take an additional cap hit by either trading or releasing Bakhtiari next season. Therefore he will be with the team in 2022.

Really? Because of yesterday? They lost two in a row prior to yesterday.

The Bucs are actually 5-1 over their last six games.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I see that in Poppa San's post. Still, that $14 mill potential is nothing to sneeze at. The problem is that we're going to have to eat a lot of dead cap just to get the cap down to make the max payroll allowance for 2022. We have some very serious problems after this season ends. I see no way out of us cutting the best players from the team, or trading them to regain some value, and move on.

We are in the proverbial "cap hell!"

The Packers will need to restructure some contracts to create cap space and will definitely have to move on from some veteran players as well. It's possible for them to keep their blue chip players though.

 

[Voyageur]

The Packers will need to restructure some contracts to create cap space and will definitely have to move on from some veteran players as well. It's possible for them to keep their blue chip players though.

Yes. There are avenues where some of them can be kept. The biggest question really is what kind of money is out there for these guys going out as free agents. It's all about the money, nothing else.

We'll have to see how the Packers decide to wedge notches out of the future to salvage something for 2022.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Did he refer to some Packer losses happening because the other team was lucky?

Luck is not a one way street.

That first season game The Packers played The Saints in Jacksonville didn't have anything to do with luck.
The reason we lost is still a mystery.