Drafting is a crapshoot

[PackinMSP]

I hear a lot of people blaming TT still for our perceived lack of young talent

Although he did well early on, his last few years weren't great

But you realize it really is a crapshoot right?

It's similar to hiring someone for your company..

Some people may look like good fits and smart and capable but aren't good "culture fits" and can't succeed.

Some are stars but NOT "team players" and will only hurt your comlaco/business

Some respond well to coaching, development, and can be very successful in the right environment (Donald Driver)

So I feel, generally, it's the same in sports. You really can't say for certain.

 

[gbgary]

Drafting is a crapshoot

goes without saying but the higher your slot the less the chance that it's a bust. good scouts and having all your mental faculties too are a big help.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Any one pick is a crap shoot. However, when you look back at the body of work, the last 40 picks or so, the results have been underwhelming.

 

[rmontro]

It's not like it's pure luck though. If it was, they wouldn't pay GMs or scouts.
Anyway, if you have a "draft and develop" strategy, you'd better draft well.

 

[XPack]

Nibody gets it right all the time. But getting in wrong multiple times in a row can't be plastered over either.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

I hear a lot of people blaming TT still for our perceived lack of young talent

Although he did well early on, his last few years weren't great

But you realize it really is a crapshoot right?

It's similar to hiring someone for your company..

Some people may look like good fits and smart and capable but aren't good "culture fits" and can't succeed.

Some are stars but NOT "team players" and will only hurt your comlaco/business

Some respond well to coaching, development, and can be very successful in the right environment (Donald Driver)

So I feel, generally, it's the same in sports. You really can't say for certain.

Yeah I get it.
Like signing on a head coach

Seriously though, Some weeks I think winning and losing in this game has a lot to do with
a little bit of luck .

 

[OldSchool101]

I hear a lot of people blaming TT still for our perceived lack of young talent

I’m not necessarily a TT hater. But drafting is only one part of a 4 part recipe. He’s also responsible for Player acquisitions outside of the draft board. TT was a huge factor in delegation how the budget is structured, e.g, how player contracts are weighted both short term and long term against the available and estimate future budget Cap. Most importantly he’s directly accountable for player churn rates (retaining players verses losing players).
Is it really all a crap shoot???
If that’s so, then the Patriots near seemless success is just an anomaly of biblical proportions. Shouldn’t they be suffering like GB after picking so late in the draft year after year after year?
I will concede that a significant part of the blame is on the coaching staff though also. I think they had a hand in making TT look worse than he really is.

 

[Dantés]

So is starting threads, apparently.

 

[thequick12]

This is why it's sometimes better to trade those picks for proven players. People scoffed when Dallas gave up a first round pick for amari Cooper but it's highly unlikely they'd have been able to draft a player of Cooper's caliber with that pick.

 

[gbgary]

This is why it's sometimes better to trade those picks for proven players. People scoffed when Dallas gave up a first round pick for amari Cooper but it's highly unlikely they'd have been able to draft a player of Cooper's caliber with that pick.

i think a lot of people scoffed at that because he hadn't been good for a couple of years and was going to cost them $14m next season. it's worked out well for them thus far. i agree a young veteran can be more valuable than a rookie. you'd have to take it on case by case basis, where the pick is, etc.

 

[scotscheese]

it doesn't matter if it's a draft pick or picking up a free agent, there is always a chance that that player won't work with a certain teams philosophy or style of play. one of the greatest football(proper football that is) managers of all time was Sir Alex Ferguson, now he still signed some players for Man utd that didn't work out and were pretty pish to be honest, but these occasions were very seldom, and the rest of the team were able to pick up the slack because he found the right players most of the time and coached them properly, which is why man utd were so successful during his tenure as manager, somewhat like the pats

 

[GleefulGary]

I’m not necessarily a TT hater. But drafting is only one part of a 4 part recipe. He’s also responsible for Player acquisitions outside of the draft board. TT was a huge factor in delegation how the budget is structured, e.g, how player contracts are weighted both short term and long term against the available and estimate future budget Cap. Most importantly he’s directly accountable for player churn rates (retaining players verses losing players).
Is it really all a crap shoot???
If that’s so, then the Patriots near seemless success is just an anomaly of biblical proportions. Shouldn’t they be suffering like GB after picking so late in the draft year after year after year?
I will concede that a significant part of the blame is on the coaching staff though also. I think they had a hand in making TT look worse than he really is.

The Patriots drafts have a tendency to be fairly underwhelming.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Think in TT's case it was a "chute"...in the end.

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[Deleted member 6794]

The Patriots drafts have a tendency to be fairly underwhelming.

True, but Belichick is a master of using all methods available to significantly improve the Patriots roster.

 

[GleefulGary]

True, but Belichick is a master of using all methods available to significantly improve the Patriots roster.

Exactly.

Belichick is great at trading later draft picks for established players (which I wish we would do more). He is also great at playing players where they win.

Take Cordarelle Patterson for example. The guy is an incredible athlete, but sucks at running routes. Hence why he kinda flamed out at WR. So Bill has him primarily returning kicks, running some basic routes, and using him at RB. He hasn't set the world on fire, but he's been an effective role player. Play your guys where they win, not where they lose.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Exactly.

Belichick is great at trading later draft picks for established players (which I wish we would do more). He is also great at playing players where they win.

Take Cordarelle Patterson for example. The guy is an incredible athlete, but sucks at running routes. Hence why he kinda flamed out at WR. So Bill has him primarily returning kicks, running some basic routes, and using him at RB. He hasn't set the world on fire, but he's been an effective role player. Play your guys where they win, not where they lose.

Agreed and would add the Pats basically got Patterson "for free". Raiders handed him over along with a 6th round pick, for the Pats 5th round pick. I doubt those 2 picks are going to be much more than 5 or so picks apart.

"Free" doesn't take into account the $3.25M Base salary the Pats are paying him and he is a FA after this season. So if Beli lets him walk, another potential comp. pick for Bill.

 

[GleefulGary]

That's why I always say the draft is just early UDFA past the 4th round. Sure you can find some good players there, but usually you don't. Trade those picks away for established players if you're a contending team and have the cap space.

 

[AmishMafia]

True, but Belichick is a master of using all methods available to significantly improve the Patriots roster.

Not true. Belichick has never bothered acquiring a player via the supplemental draft in his 18 years as GM. I dont think he even knows about it. He always has to be the smartest guy in the room and his ego prevents him from improving the team. Clearly he is too cheap to go after these players.

 

[Half Empty]

Don't notice any obvious sarcasm, so if this is real, could we please have a count on the total number of supplemental picks in the last 18 years? Maybe from the Capt?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Don't notice any obvious sarcasm, so if this is real, could we please have a count on the total number of supplemental picks in the last 18 years? Maybe from the Capt?

I know you asked for some Captain and Coke, but going to have do put up with some Brat and Cheese.

14 Supplemental picks since 2000.

2002 Milford Brown G 6th Houston Texans Florida State He had used up his five-year competition eligibility.[18]
2003 Tony Hollings RB 2nd Houston Texans Georgia Tech He was academically ineligible for the 2003 college season.[19]
2005 Manuel Wright DT 5th Miami Dolphins USC Chose entering the draft over not playing college football while trying to regain his academic eligibility.[20]
2006 Ahmad Brooks†[21] LB 3rd Cincinnati Bengals Virginia He was dismissed from his college team.[22]
2007 Paul Oliver S 4th San Diego Chargers Georgia He left college because of academic problems.[23]
Jared Gaither[23] OT 5th Baltimore Ravens Maryland He was declared academically ineligible in college.[24]
2009 Jeremy Jarmon DE 3rd Washington Redskins Kentucky Suspended over failed drug test.[25]
2010 Harvey Unga[26] FB 7th Chicago Bears BYU Expelled for disciplinary reasons.[26]
Josh Brent[26] NT 7th Dallas Cowboys Illinois He was "... reportedly academically ineligible for the 2010 [college] season."[27]
2011 Terrelle Pryor QB 3rd Oakland Raiders Ohio State Suspended as part of NCAA investigation into improper benefits.[28]
2012 Josh Gordon† WR 2nd Cleveland Browns Baylor Dismissed for failed marijuana test.[29]
2015 Isaiah Battle OT 5th St. Louis Rams Clemson Had "family matters to attend", as well as off-field issues.[30]
2018 Sam Beal CB 3rd New York Giants Western Michigan He was declared academically ineligible in college.[31]
Adonis Alexander CB 6th Washington Redskins Virginia Tech He was declared academically ineligible in college.[32]

 

[GleefulGary]

Goodness I still remember Tony Hollings.

What a terrible pick.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Goodness I still remember Tony Hollings.

What a terrible pick.

I didn't remember him, but looked him up, this quote by someone you may recognize, speaks volumes about Hollings and perhaps the guy making the statement.

Ex-coach Dom Capers said Hollings gave the team “some speed and burst”.

Sure Dom..... 49 Carries, 149 yds. for a 3.0 yd/carry ave.

 

[AmishMafia]

Ex-coach Dom Capers said Hollings gave the team “some speed and burst”.

Sure Dom..... 49 Carries, 149 yds. for a 3.0 yd/carry ave.

Yes, but it was a quick 3.0 yards.

Don't notice any obvious sarcasm, so if this is real, could we please have a count on the total number of supplemental picks in the last 18 years? Maybe from the Capt?

Complete sarcasm. I heard for years that TT was not fit to be GM because he didnt use all avenues of roster addition.

 

[PikeBadger]

The Patriots drafts have a tendency to be fairly underwhelming.

Agree. It’s Belichick’s biggest weakness imo.
He’s an absolute master at maneuvering with draft picks though. Best I’ve ever seen at that aspect of the draft.

 

[AKCheese]

And yet they just win baby win...