Do the Packers have the 2nd best roster in the league?

[Deleted member 6794]

The subject matter is level of talent for a position group. It doesnt matter what system a team uses. There are no players on the Vikings who are at the talent level of Matthews or Peppers.

It matters because a 4-3 OLB has a different job to do than Matthews or Peppers. I prefer taking a look at the front seven of a defense and there is some merit to consider the Vikings having a better group than the Packers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Dire need or dire emergency?

The Packers allowed an average of more than 150 rushing yards per game before moving Matthews inside. For me, that's an emergency. In 2011, the defense allowed the most passing yards in a season in NFL history, another emergency IMO.

Yet Thompson didn't use free agency to address any of those positions and was lucky Clinton-Dix was still on the board in last year's draft.

No, Thompson isnt above criticism. Neither is Rodgers, matthews or Lombardi. But when you are probably the best in the NFL it should provide some benefit of the doubt.

There's no denying Thompson is one of the best GMs in the league, constantly ignoring two of three ways to acquire talent isn't always the best way to upgrade the roster though.

BTW while you post TT isn't above criticism I can't remember a single example of you accepting anyone doing it on the forum though.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The Packers have 2 HOF type LBs. You really think the Vikings are even close?

Disagree on DBs as well.

As far as Lacy goes, he may be a notch below AP from the past, but going forward we shall see. RBs tend to drop off fast. Be has surprised before. Will taking a year off make him rusty or will he have fresh legs. I wouldnt bet against him, but he is no sure thing.

Harrison Smith might be the second best safety and that's what puts them over the top. Shields and Rhodes are about on par and after that the Packers have an injury-prone Hayward and a bunch of question marks. As for linebackers, "2 HoF type LBs" is completely misleading. Yeah, Peppers played well but Barr played almost as well and only one of those two can reasonably be expected to improve greatly next season. Matthews is worth a lot in the analysis but you're still comparing a linebacking group that's missing two starters vs a group that has all three starters.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Harrison Smith might be the second best safety and that's what puts them over the top. Shields and Rhodes are about on par and after that the Packers have an injury-prone Hayward and a bunch of question marks.

I think the total number of interceptions is a bit misleading in evaluating Harrison Smith in 2014. He was in the bottom half of the league in both run stop percentage and yards per cover snap allowed, in both categories significantly behind Clinton-Dix.

 

[AmishMafia]

The Packers allowed an average of more than 150 rushing yards per game before moving Matthews inside. For me, that's an emergency. In 2011, the defense allowed the most passing yards in a season in NFL history, another emergency IMO.

Yet Thompson didn't use free agency to address any of those positions and was lucky Clinton-Dix was still on the board in last year's draft.



There's no denying Thompson is one of the best GMs in the league, constantly ignoring two of three ways to acquire talent isn't always the best way to upgrade the roster though.

BTW while you post TT isn't above criticism I can't remember a single example of you accepting anyone doing it on the forum though.

Are you still upset with TT because he didnt sign Brandon Spikes?

Backup QB was a bad gamble 2 years ago. I thought and expressed that it was a mistake.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Are you still upset with TT because he didnt sign Brandon Spikes?

Backup QB was a bad gamble 2 years ago. I thought and expressed that it was a mistake.

I'm upset that Thompson only spent a fourth round pick this offseason on the position in most dire need if an upgrade. Spikes would have been a better option in run defense over every inside linebacker currently on the roster but not an ideal fit for the Packers needs. There weren't any great players available this free agent period there would have been some intriguing players available over the last few years when Thompson decided it was a better plan to hold on or re-sign Hawk and Jones.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'm upset that Thompson only spent a fourth round pick this offseason on the position in most dire need if an upgrade. Spikes would have been a better option in run defense over every inside linebacker currently on the roster but not an ideal fit for the Packers needs. There weren't any great players available this free agent period there would have been some intriguing players available over the last few years when Thompson decided it was a better plan to hold on or re-sign Hawk and Jones.

If i was a betting man i would wager a pretty sum that Brandin Spikes will not have more tackles than any Packer LB on the roster.

TTs job is to put together the best football team this coming season and the next few seasons. Period. Sometimes that means not signing someone at a percieved position of need if that right player just doesnt exist.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think the total number of interceptions is a bit misleading in evaluating Harrison Smith in 2014. He was in the bottom half of the league in both run stop percentage and yards per cover snap allowed, in both categories significantly behind Clinton-Dix.

Harrison had the second highest run defense grade among all safeties in the NFL. His run "stop" percentage might be lower but that only means (when taking into account his actual run defense grade) that he made fewer "stops" but was much more consistent overall. Based on overall run defense, HaHa ranked 65th. HaHa is good but right now Smith is VERY good.

 

[adambr2]

I'm upset that Thompson only spent a fourth round pick this offseason on the position in most dire need if an upgrade. Spikes would have been a better option in run defense over every inside linebacker currently on the roster but not an ideal fit for the Packers needs. There weren't any great players available this free agent period there would have been some intriguing players available over the last few years when Thompson decided it was a better plan to hold on or re-sign Hawk and Jones.

I was stunned when they drafted Montgomery in the 3rd with Paul Dawson still available. I guess stunned isn't really the right word, because you learn to expect the unexpected from TT in the draft, but I was puzzled. I have to think they were both incredibly high on Montgomery and not at all high on Dawson to make that pick.

I feel in some respects that we are over-emphasizing special teams this offseason, and while I agree it needed improvement, I hope we are not doing so at the expense of defense. Special teams improvements are luxury moves. There is little correlation between a team's overall performance and their special teams performance.

 

[AmishMafia]

I was stunned when they drafted Montgomery in the 3rd with Paul Dawson still available. I guess stunned isn't really the right word, because you learn to expect the unexpected from TT in the draft, but I was puzzled. I have to think they were both incredibly high on Montgomery and not at all high on Dawson to make that pick.

I feel in some respects that we are over-emphasizing special teams this offseason, and while I agree it needed improvement, I hope we are not doing so at the expense of defense. Special teams improvements are luxury moves. There is little correlation between a team's overall performance and their special teams performance.

I think special teams are more important than we realize. If we have a KO return guy that averages an extra 10 yards, i think we would all be surprised at what effect the extra field position would be.

 

[Shawnsta3]

Can we give the Brandon Spikes thing up finally?..

Between the insensitive racial comments which he would've deservedly been roasted for if he were white, being signed and released with the Patriots in a matter of weeks, and then subsequently fleeing the scene of an accident in a hit-and-run which injured three and geting four charges brought against him. While also having a history of being suspended in college for a game for attempting to gouge a players eyes out, suspended four games in the NFL his rookie year for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and being fined for illegal hits on three separate more occasions.

All for a two down linebacker. I suppose if you thought he was marginally better than the CM3/ Barrington/ Ryan/ Bradford/ Thomas group, which I'm not actually sure he is as far as upside, but if you did whatever talent he brought would be overshadowed by the poor locker room presence he's shown himself to be.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If i was a betting man i would wager a pretty sum that Brandin Spikes will not have more tackles than any Packer LB on the roster.

TTs job is to put together the best football team this coming season and the next few seasons. Period. Sometimes that means not signing someone at a percieved position of need if that right player just doesnt exist.

I agree that sometimes it´s better to not sign free agents to address a specific position of need. This year´s free agent class at ILB is a perfect example to stand pat in FA (although Spikes would have been an upgrade in run defense but not a perfect fit for the Packers). I have a hard time believing there wasn´t any inside linebacker available over the last few offseasons who would have been an improvement over Hawk and Jones though. Once again ignoring ILB during the first two days of this year´s NFL draft as well doesn´t seem to be a sound plan to upgrade the position for the 2015 season IMO.

Harrison had the second highest run defense grade among all safeties in the NFL. His run "stop" percentage might be lower but that only means (when taking into account his actual run defense grade) that he made fewer "stops" but was much more consistent overall. Based on overall run defense, HaHa ranked 65th. HaHa is good but right now Smith is VERY good.

Once again, I don´t put too much stock into PFF´s overall grades. I don´t know how it´s possible Smith was graded the second best run defender among all safeties while finishing only 32nd in total run stop percentage.

I think special teams are more important than we realize. If we have a KO return guy that averages an extra 10 yards, i think we would all be surprised at what effect the extra field position would be.

You would be surprised about the positiv effect a defense capable of forcing three and outs and punts would have for the Packers.

 

[Half Empty]

I think special teams are more important than we realize. If we have a KO return guy that averages an extra 10 yards, i think we would all be surprised at what effect the extra field position would be.

Heck, any team would be thrilled with that. The difference in average between the top guy last year (excluding the three who had less than four returns) and #50 was less than ten yards - 33 on top, 23 on the bottom.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Heck, any team would be thrilled with that. The difference in average between the top guy last year (excluding the three who had less than four returns) and #50 was less than ten yards - 33 on top, 23 on the bottom.

I think that a total of four returns doesn´t offer a representative sample size. I prefer taking a look at team statistics and last season all teams were within 9.3 yards of the first placed Ravens.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Once again, I don´t put too much stock into PFF´s overall grades. I don´t know how it´s possible Smith was graded the second best run defender among all safeties while finishing only 32nd in total run stop percentage.

That's easy to explain. A high run stop percentage is like a batter hitting a home run more often than another guy. The other guy might have a higher batting average though, or on-base-percentage. Smith is the guy with the high on-base-percentage that doesn't hit a ton of home runs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's easy to explain. A high run stop percentage is like a batter hitting a home run more often than another guy. The other guy might have a higher batting average though, or on-base-percentage. Smith is the guy with the high on-base-percentage that doesn't hit a ton of home runs.

Well, aside of solo and assisted tackles (which PFF takes into consideration) what else makes up a good run defender??? The highest graded run defender among safeties, which happened to be Morgan Burnett, finished 3rd in run stop percentage.

 

[TJV]

Once again ignoring ILB during the first two days of this year´s NFL draft as well doesn´t seem to be a sound plan to upgrade the position for the 2015 season IMO.

IMO this has more to do with your evaluation of the ILBs available in the draft than Thompson "ignoring" the position. From Thompson’s point of view he has Matthews and Barrington starting at ILB and switching Matthews inside worked pretty well last season. Perhaps the Packers didn’t have a single ILB with a first round grade. If that were the case I’m sure you wouldn’t suggest Thompson reach for one there. The Packers may have had a similar grade on Ryan as they did on the ILBs available at and after their second round pick. I know you and other draftniks didn’t, but that doesn’t reflect where the Packers had him on their draft board.

You didn’t like the way Thompson addressed the position – nothing wrong with that. I would have liked Thompson to address the safety issue in free agency a couple of years ago too. And Brad Jones had been unreliable enough to be replaced before he was. But signing a UFA just to sign one doesn't make sense and Spikes looks like a recent exhibit A for that idea. Even so, I would like Thompson to use UFA a little more than he has. But I don't think Thompson ignores any position. Considering his less than active social life it’s much more likely he obsesses over every position on the roster. He no doubt believes he is marshaling the Packers’ resources the best he can to put the best possible team on the field every season. For about 56 minutes of the last game last year it looked like he was right.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

IMO this has more to do with your evaluation of the ILBs available in the draft than Thompson "ignoring" the position. From Thompson’s point of view he has Matthews and Barrington starting at ILB and switching Matthews inside worked pretty well last season. Perhaps the Packers didn’t have a single ILB with a first round grade. If that were the case I’m sure you wouldn’t suggest Thompson reach for one there. The Packers may have had a similar grade on Ryan as they did on the ILBs available at and after their second round pick. I know you and other draftniks didn’t, but that doesn’t reflect where the Packers had him on their draft board.

You didn’t like the way Thompson addressed the position – nothing wrong with that. I would have liked Thompson to address the safety issue in free agency a couple of years ago too. And Brad Jones had been unreliable enough to be replaced before he was. But signing a UFA just to sign one doesn't make sense and Spikes looks like a recent exhibit A for that idea. Even so, I would like Thompson to use UFA a little more than he has. But I don't think Thompson ignores any position. Considering his less than active social life it’s much more likely he obsesses over every position on the roster. He no doubt believes he is marshaling the Packers’ resources the best he can to put the best possible team on the field every season. For about 56 minutes of the last game last year it looked like he was right.

Well, Thompson has spent a fourth (Jake Ryan) and a seventh round pick (Sam Barrington) on the inside linebacker position over the last three drafts while not signing any free agent over that period when it was pretty obvious after the 2013 season to a lot of people following the Packers the position was in need of an upgrade. Whatever you like to call it IMO TT hasn´t addressed the position adequately and I have a hard time believing there weren´t any opportunities during the last three offseasons to do so.

BTW I´m still waiting for someone to address my concern about the possibility that facing mostly bad run offenses (five of the teams ranked 24th or worse) hugely contributed to the Packers being that much better in run defense after moving Matthews inside during the bye week last season.

There´s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Thompson and all of the Packers scouts have way more knowledge about any of the draft prospects than anybody here on the forum and I hope they were correct about evaluating Jake Ryan and all the inside linebackers they passed on during the first three rounds. Mostly their evaluations of the players at the position have been wrong though.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Well, aside of solo and assisted tackles (which PFF takes into consideration) what else makes up a good run defender??? The highest graded run defender among safeties, which happened to be Morgan Burnett, finished 3rd in run stop percentage.

PFF definition: "Stops are what we judge to be tackles that prevent an offensive success (defined as gaining 40% of required yardage on first down, 60% on second down, and the entire required yardage on third or fourth)"

PFF also voted Smith as one of their two all-Pro safeties and noted his work as a run defender as the reason he's the second best safety in the NFL. So, I'm not sure what else is going on in there but "stops" aren't the only part of run defense. Perhaps Smith grades REALLY high on run D because he forces a lot of runners to alter their course and a different player makes the play. Smith gets credit for that on run D from PFF but it wouldn't show up in a box score (which, btw, is one of the main reasons I like PFF far more than just citing stats...which I'm not accusing you of doing, just throwing that out there).

 

[TJV]

Well, Thompson has spent a fourth (Jake Ryan) and a seventh round pick (Sam Barrington) on the inside linebacker position over the last three drafts while not signing any free agent over that period when it was pretty obvious after the 2013 season to a lot of people following the Packers the position was in need of an upgrade. Whatever you like to call it IMO TT hasn´t addressed the position adequately and I have a hard time believing there weren´t any opportunities during the last three offseasons to do so.

BTW I´m still waiting for someone to address my concern about the possibility that facing mostly bad run offenses (five of the teams ranked 24th or worse) hugely contributed to the Packers being that much better in run defense after moving Matthews inside during the bye week last season.

There´s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Thompson and all of the Packers scouts have way more knowledge about any of the draft prospects than anybody here on the forum and I hope they were correct about evaluating Jake Ryan and all the inside linebackers they passed on during the first three rounds. Mostly their evaluations of the players at the position have been wrong though.

"Only" spending a 4th rounder would be more relevant if you knew where the Packers had Ryan rated. For example, "only" a 4th rounder from the 2012 draft – and a comp pick at that - looks pretty good at DL. And 5th rounders from the 2013 and 2014 drafts look pretty good too, etc. If your criteria is based upon draft position (and I know it’s not), you should feel good that Thompson spent more “draft points” on Ryan (the 129th player picked) than he did on the player they viewed as an upgrade, Barrington (the 232nd player picked). And there’s no need to make the point that even first rounders can be busts. Perhaps they viewed Ryan as the best value at ILB while not seeing the dire need at the position that you do.

I get that you have a hard time believing there weren’t any opportunities to upgrade the position during the last three seasons but without using hindsight, that very well could have been how they saw it. If not, what motivation do you ascribe to Thompson for "ignoring" the position?

As far as waiting for someone to address your concern about the possibility that facing bad rushing offenses hugely contributed to the Packers being that much better in run defense after the bye because there’s really nothing to address. No one can change the stats of either the Packers or their opponents. Another concern is how bad the Packers rush D was before the bye, so improving was a “low bar” to get over. But the improvement vs. the run certainly passed my eye test. And there’s reason to believe both Matthews and Barrington will show improvement at ILB after the experience they gained there last year and with a full off season at the position for Matthews and a lot of snaps with the 1s for Barrington. Beyond that there were signs of legitimate improvement against the Pats. After noting that big leads against a couple of opponents skewed the Packers' rush defense numbers (another concern) a jsonline article noted:

New England, however, had run for 246 yards two weeks earlier against Indianapolis and yet managed a modest 84 yards on 16 carries. The Patriots didn't run much, but it's not because they were hopelessly behind. Coach Bill Belichick chose to attack the Packers through the air.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...thews-moved-inside-b99402971z1-284838661.html

And it showed against the Seahawks in the championship game. The Seahawks finished that game rushing 35 times for 194 yards for a 5.5 average – obviously not good. However, until the 3:52 mark of the fourth quarter, (by my math) they had 26 rushes for 121 yards. That’s a 4.65 ypc average for the best rushing team in the league last season and well below their 5.3 ypc average for the regular season. As we know too well, Matthews was out for the last three possessions of regulation. So, including the two rushes for 8 yards in OT, the Seahawks averaged 4.61 ypc when Matthews was on the field. IMO the problem with having Matthews at ILB isn’t that the run D isn’t obviously improved with him there – it’s that he’s not at his best position. But if they were willing to make that sacrifice, I doubt any UFA or rookie – even one picked in the first round – would take his snaps at ILB.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I get that you have a hard time believing there weren’t any opportunities to upgrade the position during the last three seasons but without using hindsight, that very well could have been how they saw it. If not, what motivation do you ascribe to Thompson for "ignoring" the position?

I'm not one of the posters that think Thompson ignores a position on purpose just to screw Packers fans. IMO he made mistakes in evaluating the talent level at the position over the last three years, hopefully the front office was right about Jake Ryan being one of the best ILB prospects in this year´s draft.

As far as waiting for someone to address your concern about the possibility that facing bad rushing offenses hugely contributed to the Packers being that much better in run defense after the bye because there’s really nothing to address. No one can change the stats of either the Packers or their opponents. Another concern is how bad the Packers rush D was before the bye, so improving was a “low bar” to get over. But the improvement vs. the run certainly passed my eye test. And there’s reason to believe both Matthews and Barrington will show improvement at ILB after the experience they gained there last year and with a full off season at the position for Matthews and a lot of snaps with the 1s for Barrington. Beyond that there were signs of legitimate improvement against the Pats. After noting that big leads against a couple of opponents skewed the Packers' rush defense numbers (another concern) a jsonline article noted: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...thews-moved-inside-b99402971z1-284838661.html

Honestly you have to admit that the Patriots game vs. the Colts was an outlier compared to most of their 2014 season. There´s no denying the Packers run defense has improved after the bye week and I expect the unit to even improve further with Matthews continuing to play inside but IMO a lot of fans are over-confident about the run defense going into the 2015 season.

And it showed against the Seahawks in the championship game. The Seahawks finished that game rushing 35 times for 194 yards for a 5.5 average – obviously not good. However, until the 3:52 mark of the fourth quarter, (by my math) they had 26 rushes for 121 yards. That’s a 4.65 ypc average for the best rushing team in the league last season and well below their 5.3 ypc average for the regular season. As we know too well, Matthews was out for the last three possessions of regulation. So, including the two rushes for 8 yards in OT, the Seahawks averaged 4.61 ypc when Matthews was on the field. IMO the problem with having Matthews at ILB isn’t that the run D isn’t obviously improved with him there – it’s that he’s not at his best position. But if they were willing to make that sacrifice, I doubt any UFA or rookie – even one picked in the first round – would take his snaps at ILB.

The defense probably played their best game in several years for 56 minutes vs. the Seahawks which is a great sign going forward. The run defense wasn´t that good vs. the Cowboys though allowing 145 yards on 28 carries for an average of 5.18 yards per carry which was significantly higher than their season average of 4.63.

I agree that no rookie would have been able to take away snaps for Matthews if the Packers plan all along was to play him inside in 2015, but I´m convinced an early draft pick could have been an upgrade over Barrington (maybe Ryan can provide that as well).

Another thing I´m concerned about is Matthews´ health. As you´ve pointed out the defense collapsed in the NFCCG when Clay wasn´t able to get on the field and it´s possible that would happen once again next season.

 

[Half Empty]

I think that a total of four returns offers a representative sample size. I prefer taking a look at team statistics and last season all teams were within 9.3 yards of the first placed Ravens.

Not on board with the first part, but that's subjective. The team stats are almost identical to the individual numbers that I gave, so I'm not sure if I need to argue with you or agree.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'm not one of the posters that think Thompson ignores a position on purpose just to screw Packers fans. IMO he made mistakes in evaluating the talent level at the position over the last three years, hopefully the front office was right about Jake Ryan being one of the best ILB prospects in this year´s draft.

I believe that TT may not value a field position as much as others. He may not value ILB - but then he drafted a ILB with the 5th overall pick - so I don't think that is the case.

In the last 3 years, TT has filled holes at LT, CB, S, C, and #3 WR. Hopefully he has filled some DB and QB depth as well with this last draft. There are still weak spots on the roster - OLB, DE, TE, and OL Depth are all still concerns. You can't fill all your holes and you can't tell for sure where holes are going to spring up each year. I think TT purely drafts BPA and it becomes a matter of luck that one of the BPAs is at a position of need.

You can call it a mistake, I just think it is the nature of the process. As I have analogized in the past - every poker hand is not a winner. You make a judgement call based on odds knowing full well you may hit or you may not. You know if you keep playing smart, in the end, the value of your hits out weigh your the value of your misses and you walk out a winner. We have a pretty good track record for having players emerge in our system. I look forward to seeing which players surprise us this coming season.

I think there is a possibility that they had Ryan rated higher than his draft slot. I certainly thought he would probably be gone by our pick in the 3rd. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I believe that TT may not value a field position as much as others. He may not value ILB - but then he drafted a ILB with the 5th overall pick - so I don't think that is the case.

Worth mentioning that when he drafted Hawk, the Packers played a 4-3 defense (so the MLB is more important) and Hawk was widely considered to be a future perennial All-Pro at MLB. I think the Hawk pick was more an outlier than anything else. Scheme has changed and I just think Thompson thought Hawk would be Ray Lewis/Urlacher (different player than Urlacher but as impactful).

 

[AmishMafia]

Worth mentioning that when he drafted Hawk, the Packers played a 4-3 defense (so the MLB is more important) and Hawk was widely considered to be a future perennial All-Pro at MLB. I think the Hawk pick was more an outlier than anything else. Scheme has changed and I just think Thompson thought Hawk would be Ray Lewis/Urlacher (different player than Urlacher but as impactful).

Good points.

Yeah, its a great mystery. More athletic than Matthews and a little bigger. He appeared to have the dedication and smarts. I really thought he was the next Nitchke. Still can't figure out why he wasnt. Just doesnt have the killer instinct, I guess.