big 5 returns

[HardRightEdge]

I agree with your take about the Packers receivers behind the top three on the depth chart. Adams had a promising rookie season (he had more catches than Nelson and Cobb during their first year) and according to McCarthy and Rodgers he has taken a huge step in his development. I expect him to have a very good season in 2015.

That comment illustrates my thinking on the so-called "second year jump".

In the case of Adams, the optimism is justified because he played a lot and played well for a rookie at a difficult position in this system with this QB. Barring an injury to Nelson or Cobb I wouldn't expect markedly higher gross numbers; there's just not enough ball to go around. I'd be looking more at the efficiency numbers...production per target. The Packers are not going to throw the ball 650 times as has been the case in Detroit or Atlanta or Denver or Indy in one season or another. In the Rodgers era, the Packers have thrown the ball 530 - 570 times; there no reason to think that's going to change.

As for other players making that second year jump, with the exception of Barrington, I'm struggling to think of a Packer player in recent years who played little or not at all as a rookie who ascended to a starting position or even a key rotational position in year 2. There's no substitute for money game experience.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Substituting the words "most valuable to the team" would be more appropriate than words like better or best. Keeping an 8th O-lineman may be the better move if he shows more promise than the 6th WR.

Those three spots you mentioned, which I agree with by the way, are probably about the same number of spots won by players in preseason games. I'm guessing that by time the preseason starts most teams probably have around 50 roster spots locked in based on veteran talent or camp performance.

I don't think you can capture the thinking in a brief phrase, whether it includes "best" or "most valuable". There's the "now" vs. the future; there are the cap and age implications where a younger/cheaper player substitutes for a "better" or "more valuable" player, which rears it's head most noticeably in free agency, but it goes to the point that the 53 (or more accurately the 63 when including the practice squad) is a 365 day per year proposition. Sometimes, the dead cap a player is carrying makes replacing him prohibitive.

I believe there will be a lot more than 3 competitive roster spots going into preseason: two FB/TE spots, #3 running back, maybe a #8 OL, the #5 WR, maybe a #6 WR, one or two DB spots. I see only 5 LBs as locks, or 6 if you want to include Ryan. I see only 4 locks on the D-Line, or 3 in consideration of a likely Guion suspension at least for opening day.

Preseason action is second only to money game experience is separating the practice warriors from the guys who can play.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In the case of Adams, the optimism is justified because he played a lot and played well for a rookie at a difficult position in this system with this QB. Barring an injury to Nelson or Cobb I wouldn't expect markedly higher gross numbers; there's just not enough ball to go around. I'd be looking more at the efficiency numbers...production per target. The Packers are not going to throw the ball 650 times as has been the case in Detroit or Atlanta or Denver or Indy in one season or another. In the Rodgers era, the Packers have thrown the ball 530 - 570 times; there no reason to think that's going to change.

I don´t expect Adams total numbers to be anywhere near Nelson´s or Cobb´s production in 2014 but to increase significantly compared to his rookie season. While Rodgers won´t throw the ball more often it´s probable he will target Adams more often resulting in fewer reception for both Nelson and Cobb.

 

[sschind]

I agree with your take about the Packers receivers behind the top three on the depth chart. Adams had a promising rookie season (he had more catches than Nelson and Cobb during their first year) and according to McCarthy and Rodgers he has taken a huge step in his development. I expect him to have a very good season in 2015.

I expect him to as well but as of right now I wouldn't say he is any better than a lot of 2nd or third year guys that showed a lot of promise early on. I've seen too many guys start fast and fizzle out just as quickly to say that he is a big reason why our WR corps is better than so many others. Most teams have 1 or 2 guys that are as good as Adams but in some cases he is the #2 or even #1 guy. We are very lucky to have him as our #3.

I am stoked to read all the positive comments from McCarthy and Rodgers about Adams but I also realize you have to take that stuff with a grain of salt. Most coaches and players are not going to say anything negative specifically about a player or a team mate. On the other hand it's one thing to say nice things about a player when asked about them but when a reporter asks "who really stood out" and they pick one guy out of everyone that probably means a little more. I do have very high hopes for him and would love to see him take the next step but truthfully I won't mind if he remains our #3 for the next three years.

 

[Jerellh528]

considering nobody has seen him since 2 catches in the preseason almost a year ago, i think someone is doing a fair amount of reading between the lines themselves. How is something "obvious" you've never seen? when your HOF qb goes out of their way to avoid answering specifically about one guy, and then alludes to running routes, knowing offense and being where they're supposed to be, etc as a group and then for another answers specifically about that individuals ability to run routes, know the offense and be where they're supposed to be what does that tell you? nothing? tells me someone has more work to do before they're going to see the field

Him taking jordys spot with the first team in otas, catching a td with Rodgers last week, the constant praise from McCarthy on how he's improved, just being a year deeper into his playbook and progression. What more do you need to know to see he's at least made some progression?

 

[TJV]

I am stoked to read all the positive comments from McCarthy and Rodgers about Adams but I also realize you have to take that stuff with a grain of salt. Most coaches and players are not going to say anything negative specifically about a player or a team mate. On the other hand it's one thing to say nice things about a player when asked about them but when a reporter asks "who really stood out" and they pick one guy out of everyone that probably means a little more.

I agree McCarthy went out of his way to praise Adams which is different than just responding to a question about a specific player. Rodgers is a little different IMO. He hasn't singled out players for such high praise often. The last one I remember was Cobb. Both of them 'singing the same song' about Adams is very encouraging.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Him taking jordys spot with the first team in otas, catching a td with Rodgers last week, the constant praise from McCarthy on how he's improved, just being a year deeper into his playbook and progression. What more do you need to know to see he's at least made some progression?

Janis was taking snaps with the first team offense in Jordy´s absence because Montgomery wasn´t allowed to practice and Abbrederis wasn´t able to participate in team periods coming back from an ACL tear. I expect him to have made some progress compared to last season but if you take a closer look at what McCarthy has said about him it was pretty obvious to me that MM wasn´t praising Janis to the skies.

 

[Mondio]

Him taking jordys spot with the first team in otas, catching a td with Rodgers last week, the constant praise from McCarthy on how he's improved, just being a year deeper into his playbook and progression. What more do you need to know to see he's at least made some progression?

taking the spot in a non-mandatory minicamp for a guy not practicing over some rookies, one of whom wasn't even in attendance, but finishing school, and another coming off an ACL tear isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

and there's a big difference between "some" progression and "enough". Coaches pretty much praise everyone this time of year. When your HOF qb is being specific about the progress and ability of other guys like Adams and Abbredaris, and avoiding to talk specifically about another other than to say knowing where to be, what routes to run, and knowing the playbook is more important than being fast, what does that say? Nothing?

 

[Mondio]

this is scary, you said what was on my mind before I could

 

[Ace]

I had a buddy ask me if I thought it was possible to have 3 guys (Jordy, Cobb, Davante) with 80-1,000 and 8-10 TD apiece seasons.

QB1's highest # of completions for a season is 371 for 4,295 and 39 TD's (in 2012) so based on that season 65% of his passes/69.8% of his yards and 61% of his TD's would have gone to those 3. So that leaves roughly 30% of the rest for Ty/Janis and/or Abby/Q/RR/Lacy/Starks.

Cobb and Jordy had 91 and 98 catches, 1,287 and 1,519 yds, and 12 and 13 TD's respectively in 2014. So if they both took small steps back to 80, 1,100 yds and 10 TD's apiece, that frees up 29 catches, approx 600 yds, and 5 TD's to disperse elsewhere. Giving them all to Davante would have meant he ended up with 67 1052 and 8 TD's.

Now obviously in this scenario all the catches/yds/TD's went to Davante which in the real world more than likely wouldn't happen. So I guess long story short, no I don't think it's possible but what we do have is the ability now to hopefully rely on other guys to get the job done because the sky is the limit for Davante. I think this has the potential to be one of, if not the, best WR corps I've ever seen in GB.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I had a buddy ask me if I thought it was possible to have 3 guys (Jordy, Cobb, Davante) with 80-1,000 and 8-10 TD apiece seasons.

QB1's highest # of completions for a season is 371 for 4,295 and 39 TD's (in 2012) so based on that season 65% of his passes/69.8% of his yards and 61% of his TD's would have gone to those 3. So that leaves roughly 30% of the rest for Ty/Janis and/or Abby/Q/RR/Lacy/Starks.

Cobb and Jordy had 91 and 98 catches, 1,287 and 1,519 yds, and 12 and 13 TD's respectively in 2014. So if they both took small steps back to 80, 1,100 yds and 10 TD's apiece, that frees up 29 catches, approx 600 yds, and 5 TD's to disperse elsewhere. Giving them all to Davante would have meant he ended up with 67 1052 and 8 TD's.

Now obviously in this scenario all the catches/yds/TD's went to Davante which in the real world more than likely wouldn't happen. So I guess long story short, no I don't think it's possible but what we do have is the ability now to hopefully rely on other guys to get the job done because the sky is the limit for Davante. I think this has the potential to be one of, if not the, best WR corps I've ever seen in GB.

During the 2012 season Packers receivers caught a total of 242 passes, a season high since Rodgers became the starter. I don't expect the total number of passes to increase significantly so having three receivers catching at least 80 balls is highly unlikely.

FYI it has never happened in NFL history that three wide receivers playing for the same team had at least 80 receptions in the same season.

I really like the Packers current top three WRs but there's a lot of uncertainty with every other receiver on the roster, so IMO it's premature to name them the best WR corps in the history of the franchise.

 

[Mondio]

I think if we're passing that often, somethings not working like it should be

 

[Mondio]

The sun rises in the east?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don´t expect Adams total numbers to be anywhere near Nelson´s or Cobb´s production in 2014 but to increase significantly compared to his rookie season. While Rodgers won´t throw the ball more often it´s probable he will target Adams more often resulting in fewer reception for both Nelson and Cobb.

Marginally, I would say.

 

[OldSchool101]

Janis's weakness last year was twofold. He clearly lacked a firm understanding of the playbook (understandable for a rookie) and his several errant routes when he was tested game time brought a ? If he was ready for prime time. (Although I also remember Boykin dropping 4 consecutive passes his rookie campaign, only to go on to be a primary target as the season progressed a year earlier) We know janis has big play ability, but some guys shine under pressure their rookie season and he clearly did not. That being said we couldn't afford reps with a 1-2 start last year and with Davante stepping up to get us back in the Jets home opener after we got smoked for the first 20-25 minutes. I was there and it wasn't a pretty start. Luckily we also got help from the Jets self destructing in penalties and 70,000+ fans got to wave goodbye to the ejected Jets player as he jogged across the field to the visitors locker room. That was actually fun.
I think Janis' second year production comes primarily on ST as he continues to get looks at WR here n there..to see if his camp and preseason confidence can transition into the spotlight.
Although Hydes position on returns is his to lose.. I think having Ty competing as #2 PR, sharing some of that load and filling in a role as a HB and Slot WR and used alongside Eddie as another option in the flat. Both those guys are dangerous out of the backfield as short yardage receivers if given a step or two of breathing room.
I think Abby missing a year due to Injury hurt his chances, but I think his upside is more than Myles. With the argument of superior depth also comes the ability to allow Abby more time to recover fully than usual. I see Abby being tested at several positions (Returner and WR) well into the regular season. So, with that in mind, The same depth at WR that could cost his job, ironically could save it

 

[RRyder]

Can we get a fab 4 before we start talking about a big 5? Just an idea

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

There´s no denying the Packers top three receivers are as good as any in the NFL but Janis and Montgomery still have to prove they´re capable of producing at the pro level. I expect the offense to line up with three WRs most of the time and include some packages with four and five receivers depending on the young guys development. You have to realize though that by suggesting to line up with five WRs Eddie Lacy won´t be on the field.

yea, the big 5 is another gimmick play. Eddie Lacy needs to be on the field... But I imagine some teams wont be able to stop the big 5. I really dont remember seeing it the last few years, since Driver. Other than a rare bomb maybe?

To expand. I was sold on Janis last year. I already seen what I needed to see. I firmly believe that all he needs is opportunity. Montgomery? Im going off one blib that is basicly mandatory for a 3rd round pick. But he jumped off the page at me when we drafted him... He's built like a brick. The question is, does he come in and perform as a rookie like Cobb did? Seemingly pre-tempered for the NFL? Or like Adams did, where the speed of the game seemingly takes a little time time to acclimate. If he comes out and plays like Cobb did as a rookie. And like I suspect, Janis will be dominant... Then we have a delema...

Slot receivers will continue to be smaller than 6-3. I agree that most teams prefer smaller, flexible cornerbacks but there are some taller, succesful CBs in the league as well (Richard Sherman being the prime example).

agreed.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

First, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Packers would not retain their 3rd. round pick. Montgomery can be safely penned in as the #4 or #5. I maintain the rationale behind this pick is to cover the depth bases and provide insurance in the event the other wideouts don't make the jump. If Nelson or Adams is injured, Cobb can move outside with Montgomery manning the slot.

I would not write off Janis quite yet, particularly if he looks good on KO returns in preseason even if hands issues remain.

Again, reading between the lines, McCarthy's comments relating to "using catch radius" and "improving hands" suggests he has had trouble reaching for and/or holding on to Rodgers' short-to-intermediate bullets. The preoccupation with the athletic measurables among both fans and reporters borders on fetishistic. He has to prove he can catch the d*mn ball somewhere on the positive end of the stone-hands-to-glue-hands NFL spectrum to solidify a spot.

Janis and Montgomery would appear to be a study in contrasts.

Given reporters going gaga over a couple of deep balls Janis hauled in during camp last year, his stretch-the-field capability might earn him a spot even if the possession receiving skills may be in question.

Conversely, Montgomery's drop/ball tracking issues in college seem to be concentrated in the deep balls. As a slot receiver, Montgomery would not often be called upon to haul in deep balls over his head.

In the KO game, it will be worth watching carefully how Montgomery fields the ball in preseason. If he has trouble tracking deep passes, will that show up in the KO game as well? Will he look natural fielding the ball, in position to get giddyup in his get along, or will he field enough balls back on his heels to disqualify him?

Given the Packers have unproven developmental players past the top 3, I would not be surprised if they keep 6, with backup competition continuing into the season. Either way, 5 or 6, the last spot or two should be competitive.

there we go! Play to their strengths. If Janis stretches the field, and cant consistantly grab the lazer beam short throws. then send him off to show that scarey speed, and acrobatic catches. If monty cant go deep, but is electric once he gets the ball. then give him the high percentage throws, and let him do his thing.

and we play 3 WRs all the time. more 4 wrs now i bet. even 5 maybe? Considering we only had 5 WRs last year after we let a few very good young WR go. Janis stuck. I think that is a clear sign of his ability and upside. The criticisms I hear are constructive. From NFL leaders to a D2 rookie... Message being, work hard! They wouldnt bother if they didnt see the potential to use him some day. When I read between the lines, it all lines up with what i seen of Janis. Not only a NFL WR. But he could be great some day. You cant see Montgomery being drafted in the 3rd round as a knock on Janis at all. We need AT LEAST 5 WRs going into the season. Jordy and our #6 Abbredarius is coming off surgery... We needed a good WR to add to the group. And a few undrafted projects too imo.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I don´t expect Adams total numbers to be anywhere near Nelson´s or Cobb´s production in 2014 but to increase significantly compared to his rookie season. While Rodgers won´t throw the ball more often it´s probable he will target Adams more often resulting in fewer reception for both Nelson and Cobb.

the "not enough ball to go around " problem is what led me to the Rodgers calling the plays thought. Once your offense is this awesome and efficient. The only way to get better is to get faster. More plays played in the same 60 minutes... I want Lacy to get his, and our top 3 WRs to get theirs. and Rodgers/Quarless, Montgomery/Janis in the game. Not enough plays to go around... I considered where the time goes, and i remember many QBs with their hands over the earholes, staring at the side line looking disgruntled.....

 

[thisisnate]

Stop getting me so damn excited for football!!! UGH.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

the "not enough ball to go around " problem is what led me to the Rodgers calling the plays thought. Once your offense is this awesome and efficient. The only way to get better is to get faster. More plays played in the same 60 minutes... I want Lacy to get his, and our top 3 WRs to get theirs. and Rodgers/Quarless, Montgomery/Janis in the game. Not enough plays to go around... I considered where the time goes, and i remember many QBs with their hands over the earholes, staring at the side line looking disgruntled.....

There's no reason to play faster as long as the Packers offense continues to hold the biggest average lead per drive in the league like they did last year. They're capable of playing fast when trailing though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

the "not enough ball to go around " problem is what led me to the Rodgers calling the plays thought. Once your offense is this awesome and efficient. The only way to get better is to get faster. More plays played in the same 60 minutes... I want Lacy to get his, and our top 3 WRs to get theirs. and Rodgers/Quarless, Montgomery/Janis in the game. Not enough plays to go around... I considered where the time goes, and i remember many QBs with their hands over the earholes, staring at the side line looking disgruntled.....

That was McCarthy's thinking around the start of camp last season. He wanted to run 75 plays per game:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...bay-packers-goal-on-offense-75-plays-per-game

Instead, the offensive snap count dropped from 67 in 2013 to 63 in 2014. Opponents ran 66 offensive plays per game in 2014.

The fact of the matter is it wasn't working very well early in the season, so McCarthy went away from it. Sometimes things look good in practice or preseason (NASCAR defense, run trapping/pulling) but don't work out quite so well in money games. Or certain concepts or gimmicks work well for a while (inverted bone run formation, "psycho" defense, or even the no huddle), but then reach their shelf lives and get applied sparingly. Even Capers signature zone blitzes had become an uncommon sight, revitalized to some degree with Peppers filling the role of the dropping lineman.

Whether it's not having the right personnel or opponents figuring out what you're doing, sometimes the best laid plans go awry.

Adapt or die.