You guys have more faith in the Bears than I do. If Rodgers can stay healthy, I'm saying the Packers will win the division.
Bears pull one over on the Pack
- Thread starter weeds
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AmishMafia
Cheesehead
One of the best defenses in the NFL.
They will get better at QB as Trubisky is still developing.
They took a step back on defense losing their DC and trading Amos for Haha.
They didnt add much this season from the draft. Dont think they signed any other FAs that will contribute in a meaningful way.
I think the negatives outweigh the positives, but a good QB is huge. If Trubisky becomes one, the Bears become strong SB candidates.
I think they take a step back, just because the NFL is what it is. We've always had the advantage of having the best quarterback in the division - IF he can stay healthy. And maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think our defense will be much improved. The second year under Pettine, and lots of young talent.
D
Deleted member 6794
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The Bears are a good team but there's no reason to hand them the division at this point.
I'm optimistic about the Packers chances as well but expect the Bears to be a legit contender for the division crown in 2019.
AmishMafia
Cheesehead
I think you have every right to be optimistic. We have a lot of talent and will be much improved over last season. The biggest improvement is in coaching. I think a fresh voice and new sets of eyes will go a long way. But the Bears and Vikings both have very good teams with smaller, IMHO, question Marks. In my biased view, I see us running away with it. But I know it will be a dog fight with a bunch of games coming down to a play here or there, and the proverbial bounce of the ball.
lots of reason to feel optimistic, and with a vet QB and some other key positions it should go better than average, BUT a new offense, new faces, new coaching etc there is always a learning curve and it's not always smooth or fast.
if everything is according to plan it should go well, but change rarely goes over as planned. I'm expecting some forehead slaps this year, especially early on.
if everything is according to plan it should go well, but change rarely goes over as planned. I'm expecting some forehead slaps this year, especially early on.
Well, I never said it wouldn't be a dog fight. But I'm not ready to just concede the division to the Bears, and I'm certainly not ready to say the Bears are going to dominate it.
As I said, I'm optimistic, but that's IF Rodgers can stay healthy. Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about his chances to stay healthy. Seriously, if injuries affect his play again this year, I think we need to invest in a backup quarterback who can pull the load.
You're probably right. An older veteran, maybe?
thequick12
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Haha will be playing ss with the bears won't he? Eddie Robinson not moving from free for anybody definitely not for the joke
D
Deleted member 6794
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The Packers don't need a backup quarterback able to carry the team if Rodgers gets hurt but one that might be able to keep the playoff hopes alive during a stretch of #12 not being able to play.
The Bears used a lot of two deep safety formations last season with Jackson only lining up single high on 11.3% of his snaps.
Therefore I fully expect them to use Clinton-Dix primarily as a free safety as well.
GreenReign
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Funny. If they thought that then they wouldn't have waited till Amos signed to then sign HHCD....to a ONE year deal. Silly Bears...
GreenReign
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Trubisky is garbage. He will not get better he is a slightly better version of Christian Ponder.
H
HardRightEdge
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You mean Eddie Jackson who played primarily SS with Amos at FS.
D
Deleted member 6794
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The point of time the Bears signed Clinton-Dix doesn't have any effect on how they will use him this season.
Yet the Bears were able to finish 12-4 last season. Trubisky definitely hasn't performed at a high level but showed improvement in 2018.
The Packers should thank their lucky stars the Bears didn't select Mahomes in the 2017 draft.
According to PFF Jackson lined up at free safety on 71.8% of his defensive snaps last season. They didn't use him a lot as a single high one though.
H
HardRightEdge
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I see you posted 11.3% for Jackson in single high. These numbers might indicate they count both safeties as free when in 2-high. What do they show for Amos last season in single-high and free?
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gopkrs
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While they probably didn't need to trade up; I have a higher opinion of Trubisky than most here seem to have. He can make plays imho. ot I also have a higher opinion of Cousins than others on this board.
With a last place schedule. I say they win fewer games this year.
A shudder went down my spine when I read that. Especially since Mahomes is frequently considered the new Brett Favre.
D
Deleted member 6794
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According to PFF Amos lined up as a free safety on 685 of his 1,096 (62.5%) defensive snaps with 254 of those as a single high.
In my opinion fans put too much stock into a first or last place schedule as division opponents still play 14 common games per season.
H
HardRightEdge
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FYI, footballoutsiders.com shows Amos's 1,096 snaps as his total including special teams. His defensive snaps totaled 1,028. These counts include the one playoff game. Jackson missed 3 games (including the Philly playoff game), 946 total snaps, 905 defensive snaps. I'll assume the percentages posted so far need minor adjustments for snap count discrepencies for both Amos and Jackson, with raw numbers extrapolated below. So, to sum up:
Amos
- 254/1028 = 24.7% snaps in single high
- 685/1028 = 66.6% snaps at free safety
- 11.3% of 946 = 107 snaps/905 = 11.8% in single high
- 71.8% of 946 = 679 snaps/905 = 75.0% snaps at free safety
- Amos had more than double Jackson's number and percentage of snaps at single high safety. Even if it happens to be the case that Amos took most of those snaps in the games Jackson missed, he still comes out well ahead in single high snaps given the data suggests the Bears played single high only about 1/3 of the time.
- As I surmised earlier, the data indicates that PFF counts both safeties as "free" in at least some 2-high coverages--cover-2, quarters, whatever--given these two players' total free safety snaps exceed 100%. Some other player(s) also had safety snaps for the 3 games Jackson missed, most likely for a similar percentage at free.
- Traditionally, the high safety lined up on the TE side of the ball in a 2-high coverage would be considered the strong safety. As discussed earlier with the PFF breakdown of Whitehead's snap breakdown in last year's Rams game, PFF appears unconcerned with a player's uniform number or positional designation on the roster sheet; they look at positioning and role on each play. Given the number of TEs today that are oversized WRs split out running slot routes, I would surmise that PFF is not making that over-the-TE SS distinction. I have and will continue to agree with PFF's positioning/role approach in designating a player's position on any particular play.
- Let's look at some clips from Eddie Jackson's extensive highlight reel from last year:
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Evident in these clips, and as suggested by the above data, there was a lot of positional interchangeabiliy with these two players. We saw the same in Green Bay with Clinton-Dix and Burnett in the Capers defense before Burnett got moved to ILB for a bunch of snaps over a long stretch, less so with Clinton-Dix in the Pettine defense.
Now, if the only play you looked at in that highlight reel above was the one at 0:48, you might be inclined to say, "that's a single-high safety play". However, if you look a little closer you'll notice Jackson outside the hash and only 10 defenders on the screen; it's a good bet this is cover-2 with Amos off the screen in deep coverage on the other side, one of those plays PFF might count as having 2 free safeties.
However, if you look at the preponderance of plays in this reel, the one following the one at 0:48 as representative, we see Jackson attacking and route jumping into the under zones. In that second play, Jackson attacks and Amos starts into a backpedal. In this long yardage defense, PFF may have logged both as free safties. Clearly here, and throughout this tape, Jackson is given the lattitude to jump routes in the Bears predominantly rush-4 with zone or zone/man hybrid defense with Amos serving as the backstop.
Despite the interchangeability, if we are to say who is playing predominantly what in this defense, it is Jackson at SS and Amos at FS.
That won't be the case for Amos in Green Bay. To what degree there is interchangeability with Amos/Savage remains to be seen, but it looks like the plan is to play Savage in the single-high role, with post-draft comments to the affect that he'll be patrolling the back end. That's the initial plan, anyway. Then we'll see how it evolves over time.
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I think a lot of the lower opinions on Trubisky and Cousins stem more from the team they play on than people's actual opinions on their play or their ability. Not everyone of course but I'm sure more than a few fans wouldn't be as critical of them if they didn't have anything to do with the NFC North.
Packer fans can't be caught saying anything nice about the Bears or vikings you know.
sjb12681
Cheesehead
Save for the NFC south, which is a close comparison, I'd say the QBs in the north are the scariest by division in the league. All respect to this divisions QBs.
D
Deleted member 6794
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According to Pro Football Reference Amos played 1,028 and Jackson 905 defensive snaps during the regular season:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AmosAd00/fantasy/2018/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackEd01/fantasy/2018/
There's absolutely no doubt that neither Trubisky nor Cousins are anywhere to being elite quarterbacks in the league.
sjb12681
Cheesehead
I don't know, I would say when stacking the group as a whole:
Rodgers
Stafford
Cousins
Trubisky
Vs.
Brees
Ryan
Newton
Winston
Isnt apples to apples, but is definitely 2 most competitive QB divisions in the league. I would say if only looking at the bottom 2 in each division, you would definitely go south over north, but going all 4 combined it feels closer.
Most other divisions have a star qb, 2 adaquate QBs, and a transitional qb. I would say our division and the south are the only ones set for next 2-3 seasons with starters entrenched.
That's not to say cousins (from a $$$ perspective) doesn't find his way out before then, but the others I think are what their teams want in both divisions.
Rodgers
Stafford
Cousins
Trubisky
Vs.
Brees
Ryan
Newton
Winston
Isnt apples to apples, but is definitely 2 most competitive QB divisions in the league. I would say if only looking at the bottom 2 in each division, you would definitely go south over north, but going all 4 combined it feels closer.
Most other divisions have a star qb, 2 adaquate QBs, and a transitional qb. I would say our division and the south are the only ones set for next 2-3 seasons with starters entrenched.
That's not to say cousins (from a $$$ perspective) doesn't find his way out before then, but the others I think are what their teams want in both divisions.
H
HardRightEdge
Guest
Evidently. The FO "All" games function did not pick up the playoff game.
In that case, the data reflects Jackson missing 2 of 16 games instead of 3 of 17 which further supports, at the margins, the argument that Amos was the primary FS, one less game where Amos might have taken more single high and total FS snaps than had Jackson been on the field.
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