Before Texas ended Matt Leinart's and USC's 34-game winning streak in the NCAA national championship game in January, the last team to defeat the Trojans was the Aaron Rodgers-led California Bears in 2003.
Rodgers and Leinart were Pac-10 Conference rivals in 2003 and 2004 — Rodgers almost defeated USC again in 2004 while completing 23 straight passes in a 23-17 loss — and both were juniors who seriously considered declaring for the NFL in 2005. Rodgers did, Leinart didn't.
No one knows how their careers will turn out, but today at Lambeau Field, Leinart will be a rookie making his fourth start for the 1-6 Arizona Cardinals, whereas Rodgers is spending his second season learning the craft of NFL quarterback behind Brett Favre. Rodgers was the 24th pick of the 2005 draft, Leinart the 10th overall pick this year.
Both were in drafts where three quarterbacks were selected in the first round, and because Leinart played his senior year, there's no knowing whether he would have been selected ahead of Rodgers if he'd declared in 2005.
In an exercise to gauge Rodgers, Leinart and the other four first-round quarterbacks the last two years purely as prospects — not how they've performed in their short time in the league — the Press-Gazette talked to five scouts and coaches with strong quarterback scouting backgrounds in an effort to rank the six as if they'd all come out the same year. Six points were awarded for first place, five for second, etc. The maximum score was 30, and here's how it turned out:
1. Jay Cutler (26 points)
2. Leinart (24)
3. Alex Smith (22)
4. Rodgers (16)
5. Vince Young (12)
6. Jason Campbell (5)
"We'll do a list in about 10 years and see how it looks," Rodgers said Friday.
In comparing Leinart and Rodgers, four of the five scouts rated Leinart the better prospect, though there were serious questions about both — there always are about even the best prospects.
Leinart's were a lack of mobility, perhaps mediocre arm strength and the concern that his incredible cast of teammates on offense at USC made him look better than he was.
With Rodgers, it was whether he was another of the too-mechanical products who thrived in Cal coach Jeff Tedford's regimented system of reads but will struggle in the more complex and impromptu environment of quarterbacking in the NFL. Many scouts were concerned about Rodgers' exaggerated high carriage in his dropback that he learned from Tedford, and a few questioned his arm strength.
The four scouts who considered Leinart the better prospect liked Leinart's pocket mobility, though Rodgers was the better pure runner of the two. They also thought Leinart had exceptional intangibles such as anticipation, making quick reads and poise under pressure.
One longtime NFL quarterbacks coach called it a close call between the two — Leinart a top-half prospect in the first round, Rodgers a bottom half. He predicted neither would be among the rare quarterbacks who could carry a team, and both will need good skill players around them.
"(Rodgers) will be a good quarterback," the coach said. "I don't think he'll be a guy like Brett Favre that carries the team on his shoulders. People can't expect that from him. He's not Brett Favre. He never will be Brett Favre. So if they surround themselves with the right type of people and just let Rodgers run the system, he'll be successful. You have to have playmakers around him, have the protection. I think he's talented enough to be a good quarterback in this league."
One of the coaches, though, thought the difference between the two was major. This quarterbacks guru said he'd almost never pick a quarterback in the first round unless it was an off-the-charts prospect, and Cutler would be the only definite exception from the last two drafts, with Leinart a possibility.
"(Leinart) probably has got more throws to him than Rodgers, seems a little more aware," the coach said.
The coach was unsure whether Rodgers will be successful in the NFL: "Hard to know. I just never warmed up to him much. He was just kind of blah to me. He's a winner. He's a good kid. He played real well. But so much of what he did was system-oriented. I didn't see him do anything special on tape. He just didn't get the ball out real quick for me. You'd just kind of have to take him apart and start over again if I had him."
On the other hand, the one scout who rated Rodgers as the better prospect of the two said Leinart might have rated higher for some because he was easier to project into the NFL after playing in an almost pure pro offense. But this scout rated Rodgers as a better prospect than Alex Smith, a superior athlete for the quarterback position who in 2005 went first overall to San Francisco.
The scout went to Rodgers' campus workout, and, along with several scouts interviewed before that draft who saw that performance, said Rodgers has a better-than-average NFL arm and an ability to make a variety of throws.
"I thought (Rodgers') arm talent was superior to Leinart's," the scout said. "Smith had better velocity and was a bigger, stronger guy, and I thought Aaron was so accurate. I thought he was kind of like Drew Brees with a stronger arm, real good anticipation and accuracy but with more velocity on the ball. And he got rid of the ball so quick. I understand the argument to take Smith ahead of Rodgers, but I thought Leinart would have been the third one taken (if he'd come out) that year."
Cutler, interestingly, came out as the top quarterback prospect of the past two drafts, even though he was the third of this year's three first-round quarterbacks — he went No. 11 to Denver, whereas Young went No. 3 to Tennessee and Leinart No. 10 to Arizona.
Cutler had the disadvantage of playing for a bad program at Vanderbilt but showed Favre-like qualities in arm strength, leadership and confidence. The quarterback guru said he was the best quarterback he'd evaluated in the past 15 years, a span that included Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, his highest-rated quarterbacks up to then.
"He can make the most incredible throws off balance accurately," the coach said. "He's tough, he breaks tackles in the pocket, he moves around and makes throws, he finds guys downfield, never takes his eyes off. Sees things, makes good decisions. You can give him an A-plus in every category you rank a quarterback."
Others questioned Cutler's decision making but all loved his superior arm, mobility and can-do attitude.
"I really loved him, but to me, he was a very average decision maker who made poor decisions at times," a scout said. "But the strength and the foot quickness and arm, all that quarterback swagger stuff, he'd be No. 1."
Smith, who was pushed into a starting role for a bad and rebuilding San Francisco team last year, has made strides after a disastrous rookie year. His passer rating of 86.4 points ranks 13th in the NFL after he had a 40.8 rating (one touchdown pass, 11 interceptions) in seven starts and nine games as a rookie.
"I had (Smith and Rodgers rated) pretty close," another quarterbacks coach said. "A lot of people liked Alex Smith's athleticism, but I was a little concerned about the system he came from in college, that wide open offense they run. I liked Rodgers in that he was in more of a pro style offense. As far as arm strength and that, I thought they were comparable. I'd have given (Smith) maybe a little edge but not a great edge."
Young could turn out of the best of the bunch because of his combination of size (6-4, 233 pounds) and athleticism, plus natural leadership skills. But his unorthodox, low-release throwing motion was a major concern for the five men consulted here, and even an extraordinary running quarterback such as Michael Vick has to be a passer to win a championship.
"One of those god-gifted athletes who when I turned my (report) in, the bottom line, if you can make this guy into an NFL quarterback you're going to have something special because of his size and athleticism," one quarterbacks coach said. "And it's going to take time."
Campbell, whom Washington picked immediately after Rodgers at No. 25 overall, finished last on all five ballots. He was a relatively unpolished but athletic prospect after starting full time his last two seasons at Auburn, and with Washington quarterback Mark Brunell looking washed up at age 36, Campbell could be the Redskins' starter in the next few weeks.
"I like his size, athleticism," one quarterbacks coach said. "In four years he had four different coordinators and four different systems and handled them well. His ability to adapt and learn impressed me."
