2019 UDFA NEWS and Signings

GleefulGary

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 9, 2017
Messages
5,014
Reaction score
507
Wimm, if you think Cole Tracy, who couldn't even do kickoffs in college, could replace Crosby...then you're so far gone it's not worth discussing.
 

GleefulGary

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 9, 2017
Messages
5,014
Reaction score
507
Kickers who don't have strong legs (Cole Tracy) struggle in places with wind and cold.

HE WOULD DO GREAT IN GREEN BAY!
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Cole Tracy is your pick....let's see how Mr. Tracy fares this season. Of course what he does with one team, could be very different with what he would have done with the Packers, or do we go by your assumption and only look at his made percentage and throw out all the other things?

I don't care, whatever fits your narrative best. I don't have access to the same information or the ability to work out kickers to make a decision on who should replace Crosby. It has been proven on numerous occasions that an undrafted free agent could do better than Mason though and it's the Packers front office job to find one capable of.

Wimm, if you think Cole Tracy, who couldn't even do kickoffs in college, could replace Crosby...then you're so far gone it's not worth discussing.

Just because Tracy didn't handle kickoffs at LSU doesn't mean he can't get the job done in the NFL. Tracy hit three of five field goals from 50+ yards last season, leg strength didn't appear to be an issue there.
 
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
I don't care, whatever fits your narrative best. I don't have access to the same information or the ability to work out kickers to make a decision on who should replace Crosby. It has been proven on numerous occasions that an undrafted free agent could do better than Mason though and it's the Packers front office job to find one capable of.

I totally agree with you on this, the Packers are definitely better equipped than you or I to make such a decision. I guess we will see what happens. Personally, I would have tried to sign John Baron, but the Bears got him. The Bears are definitely taking the approach you like, they have brought in a number of guys. A good team to watch to see how it works for them. :)
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
I totally agree with you on this, the Packers are definitely better equipped than you or I to make such a decision. I guess we will see what happens. Personally, I would have tried to sign John Baron, but the Bears got him. The Bears are definitely taking the approach you like, they have brought in a number of guys. A good team to watch to see how it works for them. :)

True, I would have at least liked the Packers to bring in real competition for Crosby. If he ends up being the best out of group, fine hold on to Mason for another season if there's no challenger capable of adequately replacing him. Just signing Ficken doesn't cut it for me though.
 
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
I agree there was a reason that Lutz was the Saints 11th kickers in 11 years. It's mind-boggling the Packers have had only one since 2007 though.

Especially when taking a look at this chart, ranking the teams according to field goal percentage since Crosby entered the league in 2007. I wasn't aware that it was actually that bad before looking it up. Please note that there are several cold weather teams among the top 10 as well.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
That chart shows less of a disparity than I would have expected. Compared to the median at about 83.5%, Crosby has had 3 additional misses out of every 100, or about 1 per year.

More interesting, in a "what have you done for me lately" world, Crosby's performance in the last 6 seasons following his dreadful 2012 shows a marked improvement over his first 6 seasons. It would be interesting to see that table reconstructed for the last 6 seasons. Percentages across the league have been trending up forever, but I do not believe as markedly over the last 12 years as we see in Crosby's "first half" vs his "second half".

2013 - 2018 Regular Season

  • 84.2% which would rank him 18th. all time
  • 76.9% from 40-49 yds. with 28.3% of his kicks from that distance
  • 64.5% from 50+ with 16.8% of his kicks from that distance
2007 - 2012 Regular Season
  • 76.8%
  • 70.4% from 40-49 yds. with 27.3% of his kicks from that distance
  • 42.4% from 50+ with 16.7% of his kicks from that distance
So, besides seeing a marked increase in Crosby's overall percentage in his "second half", his make percentages from longer distances show a marked increase while a slightly higher percentage of his kicks have come from those distances.

Outdoors vs. Dome

While I don't have "first half" vs. "second half" numbers, according to pro-football-reference.com Crosby's regular season career make % outdoors is 79.9% vs. 84.1% in domes, with a 3 for 5 record in stadiums with retractable roofs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/

Not all outdoor stadiums are created equal, particularly in the south and west, but there does seem to be a Lambeau factor. For what it is worth, Packer opponent FG% over the past 3 years is 74.2%:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-conversion-pct?date=2019-02-04

Playoffs


As others have noted, his playoff performance has been impressive. His "first half" shows 10 of 12 for 83% while his "second half" shows a perfect 16 of 16. For his career, he's a perfect 59 of 59 on extra points.

Where now, brown cow?

Was Crosby overapaid with that 2016 contract? We'd have to say "yes" given the current state of the art and his average pay being in the top ranks. Is the $3 mil cap savings over a minimum salary rookie worth turning the page? On paper, perhaps, given his gross $3.6 mil cap savings would rank 14th. against average salaries in the league.

Given his "second half" career performance, what is he worth? For the sake of argument, let's say middle of the pack around $2.0 - $2.5 mil. While $1.0 - $1.5 mil in savings over fair value is nothing to sneeze at, it comes with risks. Considering about 2 undrafted kickers make it in the league per year, there is a lot of trial and error in finding the needles in the haystack while competing with teams with more friendly confines that would be more attractive to prospects.

The scouting of kickers appears to have been a fairly primitive affair. The Packers drafted Crosby with the assessment he had a very big leg, failing to account for the fact his college career was at altitude. Tampa drafted Aguayo in the 2nd. round in 2016, with a broad consensus he was the top kicker in the draft, some said one of the best prospects ever, with a high college make %, while failing to consider his odd mechanics and struggles from distance.

Without considering who will be on the roster come preseason and how they perform, what would the $1.0 - $1.5 mil savings over "fair value" buy you? Something, but not alot. There's your risk/reward proposition.

If Fickens, or somebody else comes along in the mean time, is striping FGs and putting KOs out of the end zone during preseason, then there's a proposition to be seriously considered. But cutting Crosby with the expectation that finding a better value is easy, without being able to tell us who that is, makes for a very risky proposition.

I get that we should not have been happy with that 2016 contract. But the adamance with which you want to cut bait without knowing who that replacement might be is simply not justified, particularly in light of Crosby's "second half" performance, playoff record, an evident Lambeau factor and not knowing whether the valued needles in the haystack would want to test their career longevity in Lambeau field.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

GleefulGary

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 9, 2017
Messages
5,014
Reaction score
507
The FG% of opponents in Lambeau is a really good stat I never thought of. Thanks for bringing that out HRE.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
15,873
Reaction score
6,807
This is mere conjecture.. but I firmly believe if Crosby did the Lambeau leap after each score....he’d get far more fan support :tup:
 

sschind

Cheesehead
Joined
Oct 5, 2014
Messages
5,321
Reaction score
1,547
I've pretty much stayed out of the kicker debate until now and I really should be fixing the brakes on my truck but I have 2 whole days to do that and I suspect this post won't take me much more than half that to write so I have time.

First off is Crosby overpaid? Probably. Could we find someone cheaper? Certainly. Could we find someone better? Eventually. I'm sure we could but its that eventually part that scares me.

Second is FG% a truly accurate way to measure a Kickers worth? IMO not at all. As others have pointed out a small number of misses can drastically affect a kickers percentage. If Crosby had made 2 more FGs per year over his career he would be sitting at #2 on the all time FG% list. 1 more FG per year and he is at #16. There are more factors that go into evaluating a kickers worth and I think some people are ignoring them. Just like a dropped pass occasionally I think people grossly over react to a missed FG here and there.

As far as I am concerned Crosby and the Packers kicking game is a non issue. I do not think it sucks balls as some would have us believe but I do think it could be better. I don't think making it better is as easy as simply signing anyone who is cheaper as some would also have us believe. I'm am fine with moving on as Crosby as our kicker but I would also be fine if they brought in some competition and if he gets beat out great. In fact I would like them to bring in competition. I would just hope that camp and preseason results carry over in to the regular season.

In his defense I don't think Captain is saying cut Crosby and sign anyone because they couldn't be much worse (they could be) he is saying don't just hand him the job and I agree with that and I think most would also agree with that. I don't think anyone who is supporting Crosby is saying we couldn't be better just that being better is not as easy as it sounds.

I also don't think comparing a 3 year guy (Lutz) with a 12 year veteran is fair either. Lets see where Lutz is 10 years from now. He may be near the top or he may be selling used cars. I think one factor that makes replacing him appealing is that kickers are getting stronger and more accurate on average so finding a young guy to be better than a 12 year vet may be easier than it was 10 or 12 years ago. That doesn't mean every younger kicker will be stronger or more accurate.

Crosby has been kicking in the NFL for 12 years and you don't do that if you are a below average kicker overall and when I consider above or below average I take into consideration more than just regular season FG%.

There have certainly been better kickers than Crosby but there have certainly been worse ones. People clamoring for Crosby's replacement point to the good young kickers and say it isn't that hard to find one but they seem to ignore the plethora of young kickers who don't make it.

Bottom line for me is that while we would be able to find someone cheaper than Crosby I'm not so sure that the first, or second or third guy we try out would be better. I'm not opposed to trying but I am not going to be as confident the first time that kicker trots onto the field lining up a 51 yard game winner as I would be with Crosby. If the new guy goes 34/35 but his 1 miss keeps us out of the playoffs in week 17 I'd rather have Crosby's 29/35 if he makes that kick.

I think eventually we would find a guy cheaper and better than Mason Crosby and I think we should be looking but like I said from the start that "eventually" is what scares me. Especially when I don't think what we have is as bad as some people think.


I'm going to go fix my brakes now so if you never hear from me again you know I waited too long.
 
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
This is mere conjecture.. but I firmly believe if Crosby did the Lambeau leap after each score....he’d get far more fan support :tup:
Problem is, he probably would only have an 80.4% success rate at making the leap and some would notice the 19.6% ;)
 
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
I've pretty much stayed out of the kicker debate until now and I really should be fixing the brakes on my truck but I have 2 whole days to do that and I suspect this post won't take me much more than half that to write so I have time.

First off is Crosby overpaid? Probably. Could we find someone cheaper? Certainly. Could we find someone better? Eventually. I'm sure we could but its that eventually part that scares me.

Second is FG% a truly accurate way to measure a Kickers worth? IMO not at all. As others have pointed out a small number of misses can drastically affect a kickers percentage. If Crosby had made 2 more FGs per year over his career he would be sitting at #2 on the all time FG% list. 1 more FG per year and he is at #16. There are more factors that go into evaluating a kickers worth and I think some people are ignoring them. Just like a dropped pass occasionally I think people grossly over react to a missed FG here and there.

As far as I am concerned Crosby and the Packers kicking game is a non issue. I do not think it sucks balls as some would have us believe but I do think it could be better. I don't think making it better is as easy as simply signing anyone who is cheaper as some would also have us believe. I'm am fine with moving on as Crosby as our kicker but I would also be fine if they brought in some competition and if he gets beat out great. In fact I would like them to bring in competition. I would just hope that camp and preseason results carry over in to the regular season.

In his defense I don't think Captain is saying cut Crosby and sign anyone because they couldn't be much worse (they could be) he is saying don't just hand him the job and I agree with that and I think most would also agree with that. I don't think anyone who is supporting Crosby is saying we couldn't be better just that being better is not as easy as it sounds.

I also don't think comparing a 3 year guy (Lutz) with a 12 year veteran is fair either. Lets see where Lutz is 10 years from now. He may be near the top or he may be selling used cars. I think one factor that makes replacing him appealing is that kickers are getting stronger and more accurate on average so finding a young guy to be better than a 12 year vet may be easier than it was 10 or 12 years ago. That doesn't mean every younger kicker will be stronger or more accurate.

Crosby has been kicking in the NFL for 12 years and you don't do that if you are a below average kicker overall and when I consider above or below average I take into consideration more than just regular season FG%.

There have certainly been better kickers than Crosby but there have certainly been worse ones. People clamoring for Crosby's replacement point to the good young kickers and say it isn't that hard to find one but they seem to ignore the plethora of young kickers who don't make it.

Bottom line for me is that while we would be able to find someone cheaper than Crosby I'm not so sure that the first, or second or third guy we try out would be better. I'm not opposed to trying but I am not going to be as confident the first time that kicker trots onto the field lining up a 51 yard game winner as I would be with Crosby. If the new guy goes 34/35 but his 1 miss keeps us out of the playoffs in week 17 I'd rather have Crosby's 29/35 if he makes that kick.

I think eventually we would find a guy cheaper and better than Mason Crosby and I think we should be looking but like I said from the start that "eventually" is what scares me. Especially when I don't think what we have is as bad as some people think.


I'm going to go fix my brakes now so if you never hear from me again you know I waited too long.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 
Last edited:
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
Problem is, he probably would only have an 80.4% success rate at making the leap and some would notice the 19.6% ;)
You have to break that down. It's kinda the opposite of FG kicking. With a running start from 50 yards out he'd make it 98% of the time. From 25 yards out it would drop to 50%. You also have to account for whether there's a swirling cross wind that day. ;)
 

GleefulGary

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 9, 2017
Messages
5,014
Reaction score
507
I don't care, whatever fits your narrative best. I don't have access to the same information or the ability to work out kickers to make a decision on who should replace Crosby. It has been proven on numerous occasions that an undrafted free agent could do better than Mason though and it's the Packers front office job to find one capable of.



Just because Tracy didn't handle kickoffs at LSU doesn't mean he can't get the job done in the NFL. Tracy hit three of five field goals from 50+ yards last season, leg strength didn't appear to be an issue there.

I'm not going to pretend to be a kicking expert, but every single scouting report mentions leg strength as a weakness of his.
 
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
You have to break that down. It's kinda the opposite of FG kicking. With a running start from 50 yards out he'd make it 98% of the time. From 25 yards out it would drop to 50%. You also have to account for whether there's a swirling cross wind that day. ;)

We might have a few of these!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 

Mondio

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
15,893
Reaction score
3,797
and eventually, if any of those young guys are worth a ****, they'll be making more soon enough.
 
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
I'm not going to pretend to be a kicking expert, but every single scouting report mentions leg strength as a weakness of his.
In his one year of FBS play last season (previously at Assumption College), he hit 3 of 5 from 50+ with a long of 54. That's not bad, typical of Crosby's numbers. However, LSU had a kickoff specialist last season, a freshman named Avery Atkins. Now, Atkins is something of kickoff savant, with LSU leading the NCAA in touchback percentage, who on at least one occasion put the ball in the stands on the fly.

It might be that Tracy isn't so bad on KOs. I just might be that Atkins was so good at it. It's not like Crosby's touchback % is all that great, actually well below average among NFL kickers last season:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...archive=false&conference=null&qualified=false

That's assuming touchbacks are optimal. 3 yards deep, tempting the guy to try to take it out to the 26 without fumbling, could be another approach.

In any case, the rookie tryouts came and went with Tracy unsigned. Note that Ficken had 11 touchbacks on 13 KOs, the highest percentage in the league on a limited sample. Evidently he has the leg strength. Whether he can consistently split the uprights remains to be seen. Given this will be his 5th. season since graduating college, with only two brief stints with the Rams, I wouldn't hold my breath.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
In his one year of FBS play last season (previously at Assumption College), he hit 3 of 5 from 50+ with a long of 54. That's not bad, typical of Crosby's numbers. However, LSU had a kickoff specialist last season, a freshman named Avery Atkins. Now, Atkins is something of kickoff savant, with LSU leading the NCAA in touchback percentage, who on at least one occasion put the ball in the stands on the fly.

It might be that Tracy isn't so bad on KOs. I just might be that Atkins was so good at it. It's not like Crosby's touchback % is all that great, actually well below average among NFL kickers last season:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...archive=false&conference=null&qualified=false

That's assuming touchbacks are optimal. 3 yards deep, tempting the guy to try to take it out to the 26 without fumbling, could be another approach.

In any case, the rookie tryouts came and went with Tracy unsigned. Note that Ficken had 11 touchbacks on 13 KOs, the highest percentage in the league on a limited sample. Evidently he has the leg strength. Whether he can consistently split the uprights remains to be seen. Given this will be his 5th. season since graduating college, with only two brief stints with the Rams, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Seems like there is a pretty good consensus around the league that Tracy's leg strength is a big question mark. Which I imagine is why he wasn't drafted or signed as an UDFA yet, despite his accuracy. Unlike a college team, an NFL team really doesn't have the luxury of keeping a guy strictly to kickoff and a FG specialist. No doubt Tracy seems to have the accuracy, but if you watch the footage, that 54 (line drive) and a 50 yarder barely cleared the uprights. The 54 yarder actually hit the cross bar and went over.

So IMO the only way you sign this guy is he proves he is capable of kicking off or you have a punter or another player who can take over on kickoffs and 55+ yd FG attempts.

WARNING: VIEWING THIS VIDEO MAY CAUSE UNDUE DROWSINESS, MILD NAUSEA AND PERIODS OF UNDUE BOREDOM, PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR DOCTOR BEFORE VIEWING

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 
Last edited:
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
If you want to follow a real kicking circus, read what the Bears have been doing. Now I realize we all want the same thing, a reliable kicker at a fair price, but man the Bears and this timeline is mind blowing. Fans are going to need a spreadsheet to keep track of it all.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/spor...-viz-chicago-bears-kicker-saga-htmlstory.html
"At the Bears’ end-of-season news conference, coach Matt Nagy makes it clear he is not pleased with Parkey’s “Today” show appearance. “We always talk about a ‘we’ and not a ‘me’ thing, and we always talk as a team (that) we win as a team, we lose as a team,” Nagy says. “I didn’t necessarily think that was too much of a ‘we’ thing.”

LOL. Then it became a "he" thing.

"The Bears bring eight kickers — four under contract and four on a tryout basis — to rookie minicamp. The first day’s festivities end with each kicker trying “The Cody Parkey” — a 43-yarder. “That was on purpose,” Nagy said, referring to the distance and what it symbolizes. “They know. … They know loud and clear why.”

And what was it that they knew, Mr. Nagy? Don't miss 43 yard FGs, I presume.

Place kicking is NOT a team sport, and I think he knows it.
 

gbgary

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2017
Messages
3,420
Reaction score
185
Location
up the road from jerrahworld
Crosby would have to make 77 field goals in a row to get the Packers in the top half in field goal percentage since 2012. He hasn't been any good with the game being close either as he has made only 75.6% of his field goals in the fourth quarter with the Packers either trailing by three or less or leading by a maximum of four points.
geesh...77 in a row huh. those are telling stats. worse than i thought. that's not to say he hasn't had his good moments.
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
33,630
Reaction score
8,890
Location
Madison, WI
"At the Bears’ end-of-season news conference, coach Matt Nagy makes it clear he is not pleased with Parkey’s “Today” show appearance. “We always talk about a ‘we’ and not a ‘me’ thing, and we always talk as a team (that) we win as a team, we lose as a team,” Nagy says. “I didn’t necessarily think that was too much of a ‘we’ thing.”

LOL. Then it became a "he" thing.

"The Bears bring eight kickers — four under contract and four on a tryout basis — to rookie minicamp. The first day’s festivities end with each kicker trying “The Cody Parkey” — a 43-yarder. “That was on purpose,” Nagy said, referring to the distance and what it symbolizes. “They know. … They know loud and clear why.”

And what was it that they knew, Mr. Nagy? Don't miss 43 yard FGs, I presume.

Place kicking is NOT a team sport, and I think he knows it.

Agreed and what this also does, IMO is puts way to much focus on the position. Now maybe they will find the guy they like before the preseason is done and all will be forgotten. However, if it drags on too long, players and fans are all going to be collectively holding their breaths as to what will happen when they really need a FG to win a game.
 

Mondio

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
15,893
Reaction score
3,797
I hope the Bears trade more draft picks for a kicker after rifling thru at least 8 trying to find one. They were idiots to get rid of Gould in the first place.
 
Top