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Gute Loot
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The draft is over and rosters are (mostly) set. I want to take a stab at stacking up the various position groups in the division. As always, I strive to be objective despite my obvious bias as a Packers fan.
Quarterback: The rest of the division finds themselves, once again, looking up at Green Bay at the most important position. Love clearly demonstrated elite traits and tons of growth last season. The future is very bright. Goff is a very good QB for Detroit, though I question how sustainable their success will be once they've had to pay him and his supporting cast. Both the Bears and Vikings are going to be breaking in rookies, with Chicago obviously having the much more highly regarded talent of the two.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Running Back: Green Bay signed Jacobs this off-season who, for my money, is the best overall back in this division. They're backing him up with an explosive rookie and a very reliable pro in A.J. Dillon who can handle some key roles, such as blitz pickup. The Lions are close with the duo of Montgomery and Gibbs, who are both strong options and complement each other well. I wouldn't argue with someone who ranked them 1st, but I think they get a touch overrated as independent talents because they run behind the best line in the division. The Bears added Swift to their backfield to join Herbert and Johnson, and that's a quality addition, but they're going to see more modest production than he showed running behinds the Eagles' offensive line. Minnesota again brings up the rear: Aaron Jones is a stud, but he's aging and needs to be used in a complementary fashion. The rest of their backfield is pretty unimpressive.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Tight End: At the top, one has to choose between quantity and quality. The Packers had two very talented rookies demonstrate a lot of promise in 2023, but neither were particularly close to the level of Sam LaPorta. Given his excellence in the passing game, I'm giving Detroit the nod here. I do, however, rank GB ahead of the Vikings despite the fact that Hockenson is of a similar quality to 2023 LaPorta. My reasoning is that, entering year 6 and age 27, Hockenson is basically a finished product (and a good one!). The tight ends in Detroit and Green Bay are all 23 and entering year 2, when most talented players take a big leap. The Bears are an easy 4th place with the decent, but unspectacular duo of Kmet and Everett.
1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Bears
Wide Receiver: The Bears don't have the best receiver in the division, but I think they have the best group overall. D.J. Moore is a quality WR1, Keenan Allen adds a high end possession option, and Rome Odunze was, for my money, the best overall player in the draft. I think he is flat out better than Harrison Jr. and Nabers and should make an instant impact. The Packers don't have a clearly defined #1 option, but they go 4-5 deep with serious quality players while also being so young at the position that there's a lot of expected growth. Minnesota has the best overall player at the position, but he doesn't have much help. Addison exceeded my expectations last season but I suspect he will won't look quite as capable without Cousins. Meanwhile the depth chart beyond those two is bleak. Detroit is similar, but worse off-- St. Brown is excellent and the rest of the depth chart sucks.
1. Bears
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Lions
Offensive Line: The bedrock of the Lions' offense is their line. They are good to great at basically every position save maybe right guard. The reason why the offensive production exceeds the ability of their skill positions is that their front is elite. Green Bay is a step down, but still good and promising. It's unclear where the best five will slot in, positionally, but they had enough young players demonstrate promise last year to be optimistic in light of what they've added since. The Bears and Vikings are both strong at tackle and questionable on the interior. I give Chicago the nod because Teven Jenkins, if healthy is better than anyone in Minnesota on the inside. No one in the division is a disaster in this area.
1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Defensive Line/Front: For this group, I am considering the entire defensive line group, including edge rushers (even if they stand up). The Packers have thrown tons of resources into these positions recently and they're beginning to pay off. Gary, Smith, Van Ness, Enagbare is easily the best edge group in the division, while Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks is head and shoulders the best group of interior pass rushers. Look for these players to show out in a new way under Hafley this season. The Lions, meanwhile, have some quality without as much depth. Hutchinson is a better player than anyone on the Packers in 2023, but he lacks a capable rush mate unless Marcus Davenport returns to a form he hasn't shown since 2021. They don't have much for pass rush on the inside (their big investment was D.J. Reader, who is a run defense specialist). The Bears are in a very similar position, just with a step down when it comes to their lead stud (Sweat is good, but he's not Hutchinon). Minnesota could be in trouble here. Greenard and Turner could be a decent duo depending on how quickly the latter gets up to speed, but their interior players have all the makings of a disaster area-- a unit that could be seriously debilitating.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Linebacker: This position is the inverse of the offensive line. Whereas I think all four teams are pretty good on the OL, I don't think anyone is particularly impressive at linebacker. The Bears have two decent starters in Edwards and Edmunds and that's enough for me to give them the nod at #1. The Lions, similarly, have two guys who can play in Anzalone and Barnes, but I think that duo is a little step down from the Bears' unit. That could change if Campbell takes a big step in year two. Minnesota got good play out of Ivan Pace Jr. and added Blake Cashman, but I think both were more products of their DC last year than anything else. I like the potential in Green Bay, but it's unrealized. Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper are definitely the most talented pairing in the North, but they need to prove it before they merit a higher ranking.
1. Bears
2. Lions
3. Vikings
4. Packers
Cornerback: The Bears are complete with proven talent after keeping Jaylon Johnson. Tyrique Stevenson provided quality play as a rookie and Kyler Gordon is a good nickel. The Lions were abysmal at corner last year, but they have thrown a ton of resources at it. Carlton Davis is probably not the player he was, but he's surrounded by other investments: Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Amik Robertson, and Emmanuel Moseley coming back from injury. With so much of the group being new, there are a lot of possible outcomes here, but they'll be somewhat stabilized by Davis and Branch holding down the slot. Green Bay has the best pure corner when he's healthy in Jaire Alexander, but he hasn't been reliable of late. If Stokes comes back healthy and competes well with Valentine, the other position could be well-manned. I don't care much for Nixon on defense. The Packers' group has the talent to outplay this ranking (especially if Hafley's approach to defense unlocks them), but they haven't earned the benefit of the doubt. The Vikings are still really weak at corner overall. Their main addition in the draft was a 25 year old developmental guy in round 4.
1. Bears
2. Lions
3. Packers
4. Vikings
Safety: Much like the Lions at cornerback, the Packers went hard at this position. They added the best overall safety in the division in Xavier McKinney and then spent three draft picks on some interesting talents. The Bears have a quality starter in Jaquan Brisker, but will be trying to get by next to him with a declining Kevin Byard. The depth lacks youth/upside (they actually have two GB cast-offs in Owens and Moore). The Detroit mix at safety is pretty boom/bust. Melfionwu is going to be asked to play a much bigger role. Both he and Joseph can take the ball away, but they can also allow their shares of big plays. Minnesota is still trying to make things work with a declining Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum after Lewis Cine has proven to be a total bust.
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
Totals (lower is better):
1. Packers: 17
2. Lions: 19
2. Bears: 21
4. Vikings: 33
Conclusion: After working through this exercise at each spot, it yielded a conclusion that matches my overall expectations for the season. I think Green Bay has the best roster in the North, top to bottom, but that Detroit is right there. Given that 2024 shouldn't find Jordan Love trying to find his way for the first half of the season, I would expect the Packers to take the division, but the Lions will be a challenge to hold off and will certainly be a wildcard team if they can't win the title outright. The Bears are feisty and have some legit talent on the roster. They will go as far as their rookie QB can take them, but they are a clear 3rd place to me and I am not quite as bullish on Caleb Williams as the public. I think there's a real chance that he struggles personally given his oddities and personality. That's not PC to say, so it hasn't come up a lot in the media. The Vikings are in trouble. They are a nice landing spot for a rookie QB, but they will be chasing points all year. Flores got deep in his bag last season and had the defense way outplaying their talent level, but it was smoke and mirrors. By the end of the season, they were found out and were allowing 30 ppg. The talent level is dreadful and I simply don't believe that Flores will pull the rabbit out of the hat again.
Quarterback: The rest of the division finds themselves, once again, looking up at Green Bay at the most important position. Love clearly demonstrated elite traits and tons of growth last season. The future is very bright. Goff is a very good QB for Detroit, though I question how sustainable their success will be once they've had to pay him and his supporting cast. Both the Bears and Vikings are going to be breaking in rookies, with Chicago obviously having the much more highly regarded talent of the two.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Running Back: Green Bay signed Jacobs this off-season who, for my money, is the best overall back in this division. They're backing him up with an explosive rookie and a very reliable pro in A.J. Dillon who can handle some key roles, such as blitz pickup. The Lions are close with the duo of Montgomery and Gibbs, who are both strong options and complement each other well. I wouldn't argue with someone who ranked them 1st, but I think they get a touch overrated as independent talents because they run behind the best line in the division. The Bears added Swift to their backfield to join Herbert and Johnson, and that's a quality addition, but they're going to see more modest production than he showed running behinds the Eagles' offensive line. Minnesota again brings up the rear: Aaron Jones is a stud, but he's aging and needs to be used in a complementary fashion. The rest of their backfield is pretty unimpressive.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Tight End: At the top, one has to choose between quantity and quality. The Packers had two very talented rookies demonstrate a lot of promise in 2023, but neither were particularly close to the level of Sam LaPorta. Given his excellence in the passing game, I'm giving Detroit the nod here. I do, however, rank GB ahead of the Vikings despite the fact that Hockenson is of a similar quality to 2023 LaPorta. My reasoning is that, entering year 6 and age 27, Hockenson is basically a finished product (and a good one!). The tight ends in Detroit and Green Bay are all 23 and entering year 2, when most talented players take a big leap. The Bears are an easy 4th place with the decent, but unspectacular duo of Kmet and Everett.
1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Bears
Wide Receiver: The Bears don't have the best receiver in the division, but I think they have the best group overall. D.J. Moore is a quality WR1, Keenan Allen adds a high end possession option, and Rome Odunze was, for my money, the best overall player in the draft. I think he is flat out better than Harrison Jr. and Nabers and should make an instant impact. The Packers don't have a clearly defined #1 option, but they go 4-5 deep with serious quality players while also being so young at the position that there's a lot of expected growth. Minnesota has the best overall player at the position, but he doesn't have much help. Addison exceeded my expectations last season but I suspect he will won't look quite as capable without Cousins. Meanwhile the depth chart beyond those two is bleak. Detroit is similar, but worse off-- St. Brown is excellent and the rest of the depth chart sucks.
1. Bears
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Lions
Offensive Line: The bedrock of the Lions' offense is their line. They are good to great at basically every position save maybe right guard. The reason why the offensive production exceeds the ability of their skill positions is that their front is elite. Green Bay is a step down, but still good and promising. It's unclear where the best five will slot in, positionally, but they had enough young players demonstrate promise last year to be optimistic in light of what they've added since. The Bears and Vikings are both strong at tackle and questionable on the interior. I give Chicago the nod because Teven Jenkins, if healthy is better than anyone in Minnesota on the inside. No one in the division is a disaster in this area.
1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Defensive Line/Front: For this group, I am considering the entire defensive line group, including edge rushers (even if they stand up). The Packers have thrown tons of resources into these positions recently and they're beginning to pay off. Gary, Smith, Van Ness, Enagbare is easily the best edge group in the division, while Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks is head and shoulders the best group of interior pass rushers. Look for these players to show out in a new way under Hafley this season. The Lions, meanwhile, have some quality without as much depth. Hutchinson is a better player than anyone on the Packers in 2023, but he lacks a capable rush mate unless Marcus Davenport returns to a form he hasn't shown since 2021. They don't have much for pass rush on the inside (their big investment was D.J. Reader, who is a run defense specialist). The Bears are in a very similar position, just with a step down when it comes to their lead stud (Sweat is good, but he's not Hutchinon). Minnesota could be in trouble here. Greenard and Turner could be a decent duo depending on how quickly the latter gets up to speed, but their interior players have all the makings of a disaster area-- a unit that could be seriously debilitating.
1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings
Linebacker: This position is the inverse of the offensive line. Whereas I think all four teams are pretty good on the OL, I don't think anyone is particularly impressive at linebacker. The Bears have two decent starters in Edwards and Edmunds and that's enough for me to give them the nod at #1. The Lions, similarly, have two guys who can play in Anzalone and Barnes, but I think that duo is a little step down from the Bears' unit. That could change if Campbell takes a big step in year two. Minnesota got good play out of Ivan Pace Jr. and added Blake Cashman, but I think both were more products of their DC last year than anything else. I like the potential in Green Bay, but it's unrealized. Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper are definitely the most talented pairing in the North, but they need to prove it before they merit a higher ranking.
1. Bears
2. Lions
3. Vikings
4. Packers
Cornerback: The Bears are complete with proven talent after keeping Jaylon Johnson. Tyrique Stevenson provided quality play as a rookie and Kyler Gordon is a good nickel. The Lions were abysmal at corner last year, but they have thrown a ton of resources at it. Carlton Davis is probably not the player he was, but he's surrounded by other investments: Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Amik Robertson, and Emmanuel Moseley coming back from injury. With so much of the group being new, there are a lot of possible outcomes here, but they'll be somewhat stabilized by Davis and Branch holding down the slot. Green Bay has the best pure corner when he's healthy in Jaire Alexander, but he hasn't been reliable of late. If Stokes comes back healthy and competes well with Valentine, the other position could be well-manned. I don't care much for Nixon on defense. The Packers' group has the talent to outplay this ranking (especially if Hafley's approach to defense unlocks them), but they haven't earned the benefit of the doubt. The Vikings are still really weak at corner overall. Their main addition in the draft was a 25 year old developmental guy in round 4.
1. Bears
2. Lions
3. Packers
4. Vikings
Safety: Much like the Lions at cornerback, the Packers went hard at this position. They added the best overall safety in the division in Xavier McKinney and then spent three draft picks on some interesting talents. The Bears have a quality starter in Jaquan Brisker, but will be trying to get by next to him with a declining Kevin Byard. The depth lacks youth/upside (they actually have two GB cast-offs in Owens and Moore). The Detroit mix at safety is pretty boom/bust. Melfionwu is going to be asked to play a much bigger role. Both he and Joseph can take the ball away, but they can also allow their shares of big plays. Minnesota is still trying to make things work with a declining Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum after Lewis Cine has proven to be a total bust.
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
Totals (lower is better):
1. Packers: 17
2. Lions: 19
2. Bears: 21
4. Vikings: 33
Conclusion: After working through this exercise at each spot, it yielded a conclusion that matches my overall expectations for the season. I think Green Bay has the best roster in the North, top to bottom, but that Detroit is right there. Given that 2024 shouldn't find Jordan Love trying to find his way for the first half of the season, I would expect the Packers to take the division, but the Lions will be a challenge to hold off and will certainly be a wildcard team if they can't win the title outright. The Bears are feisty and have some legit talent on the roster. They will go as far as their rookie QB can take them, but they are a clear 3rd place to me and I am not quite as bullish on Caleb Williams as the public. I think there's a real chance that he struggles personally given his oddities and personality. That's not PC to say, so it hasn't come up a lot in the media. The Vikings are in trouble. They are a nice landing spot for a rookie QB, but they will be chasing points all year. Flores got deep in his bag last season and had the defense way outplaying their talent level, but it was smoke and mirrors. By the end of the season, they were found out and were allowing 30 ppg. The talent level is dreadful and I simply don't believe that Flores will pull the rabbit out of the hat again.
