Assessing the Draft Class (2024)

[Heyjoe4]

Luckily for Dillon he took a minimal offer. That probably solidified his place on our team. Had he been a $5m savings he’s probably gone. Smart move imo for a RB who, if he bounces back in 2024, will get a bigger 3rd contract somewhere.

It’ll be fun having another capable RB. If he pans out to expectation? We now have a pretty deep RB room

Yeah it all worked out pretty well. Not happy about how Jones' time ended, but it's a business after all.

I think Dillon might surprise with a decent year. His only awful year was last year. He'll never be the bell cow at RB, but he has plenty to offer.

And it will be fun, and probably maddening at times, to see what Lloyd can do. Break some big runs, hang onto the ball and he's set.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah it all worked out pretty well. Not happy about how Jones' time ended, but it's a business after all.

I think Dillon might surprise with a decent year. His only awful year was last year. He'll never be the bell cow at RB, but he has plenty to offer.

And it will be fun, and probably maddening at times, to see what Lloyd can do. Break some big runs, hang onto the ball and he's set.

Yeah and I’m hoping we can get Lloyd involved in the passing game. He’s a game changer in space. Marshawn improved drastically from a lackluster 50% rec rate in 2022 to 70% in 2023. He picked up 12.3 yards per target (smaller sample size) in 2023. I like to use “per target” because it’s a full picture of BOTH rec rate and per reception.
12.3 yards per target is exceptional on a per target basis if he can carry anywhere close to that to the NFL. Even sniffing 9-10 yards per rec. would earn him early playing time. In his first meaningful year (2022) he was a lighter 4.9 per target. He’s a “Medium Floor-High ceiling” damager in space.
(For reference Aaron Jones is 5.7 per target career wise)

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah and I’m hoping we can get Lloyd involved in the passing game. He’s a game changer in space. Marshawn improved drastically from a lackluster 50% rec rate in 2022 to 70% in 2023. He picked up 12.3 yards per target (smaller sample size) in 2023. I like to use “per target” because it’s a full picture of BOTH rec rate and per reception.
12.3 yards per target is exceptional on a per target basis if he can carry anywhere close to that to the NFL. Even sniffing 9-10 yards per rec. would earn him early playing time. In his first meaningful year (2022) he was a lighter 4.9 per target. He’s a “Medium Floor-High ceiling” damager in space.
(For reference Aaron Jones is 5.7 per target career wise)

I've seen his film and you're right - get him in space and he's very hard to stop. He seems to have great vision and/or instincts. He doesn't look very elusive. He's stocky and built low to the ground. But he can stop and change direction very quickly and he's fast. Looking forward to watching him play in G&G.

 

[OldSchool101]

I've seen his film and you're right - get him in space and he's very hard to stop. He seems to have great vision and/or instincts. He doesn't look very elusive. He's stocky and built low to the ground. But he can stop and change direction very quickly and he's fast. Looking forward to watching him play in G&G.

Exactly. That’s where his 5’9 lower center of gravity helps him. He can shift on a dime while running full tilt.

 

[sschind]

Yeah it all worked out pretty well. Not happy about how Jones' time ended, but it's a business after all.

I think Dillon might surprise with a decent year. His only awful year was last year. He'll never be the bell cow at RB, but he has plenty to offer.

And it will be fun, and probably maddening at times, to see what Lloyd can do. Break some big runs, hang onto the ball and he's set.

I didn't get to see many games last year so I can't really say if this was a factor or not but I wonder how much Jordan Love being a first time starter and his erratic play in the first half of the season may have impacted Dillon's performance. No one was afraid of Love and our receivers and with Dillon getting the snaps when Jones was out maybe the defenses felt they could key on him. We know the passing game came on in the second half and we all know how Jones ended the season. Was it a coincidence? Had Dillon been the guy at the end would his numbers have been better?

I guess my point is that I agree with you. I think Dillon could bounce back nicely. If nothing else we could have the best #3 RB in the league

 

[Thirteen Below]

Agree, and most notably imo, is that Jenkins has gotten a pass from posters here for his very mediocre play last year. Yes, I know he was coming back from major injury but it doesn't change the fact that he didn't play well last year, especially in the first half of the season when penalties were derailing drives. He was contributing to those derailed drives often times.

That part of the year was very frustrating to watch, espcially when you have a 1st-year QB and a bunch of rookie or sophomore receivers trying to get some rhythm and figure out what works and what doesn't, how to susatain a 10-12 play 75-yard drive against an NFL-level defense. It's pretty hard for those guys to master their trade and elevate their game to the next level when it's 4-5 plays, punt, and back the bench, over and over again.

 

[El Guapo]

Some of Dillon's problems last year were for him to own, others were on LaFleur. IMO opinion Dillon has never done well when Jones is injured. He has to figure that out.

We also had the coaching staff calling stretch running plays for Dillon. He does not have lateral speed and was often tackled behind the OT/TE spot. He needs to play like Ironhead Heywood and just plow through the line again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again.

I think that I just got him 20 carries there.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The other trait we went after were leaders or guys that overcame inspiring obstacles. High character and exceptional level desire and discipline. I think I also saw like 5 of these 10 players were team Captains ant shared that role in some capacity. The other played QB.

Oh, you noticed that too? Figures that you would. I just started laughing around Pick 5, when I realized that 3 of the first 5 were captains. Clearly not a coincidence. Especially in light of the fact that the 2 key UFA signings (Jacobs and McKinney) had also been team captains with their previous club. Apparently one more box that Gute likes to be able to check off as he goes down his "do we want him on the Packers or don't we?" list.

By my count, it's actually 7 captains, including the QB Pratt, and Kalen King was a 2-year captain in high school. Morgan, Bullard, Hopper, Williams, Monk, Pratt, and Oladapo were all callege captains, according to Google.

One more intangible that makes me think Gutekunst has some pretty clear ideas of not only the kind of players he wants, but the kind of men he wants in Green Bay.

Edit: I'm watching some Gutekunst post-draft interviews tonight, and after Day Two, one of the reporters made note of the emphasis on captains and asked him about it. Gutekunst said that it definitely is a factor in how they evaluate their prospects, and that it's becoming more important to them as they start to see what a successful metric it is.

He went on to say that when they look at that, they don't say "oh, good, he's been a captain, that's our guy", and leave it at that. The scouts drill down with the coaching staffs and ask their teammates, looking for guys who not only were just named a captain and then hung around as a captain for a while - they prioritize guys who were captains for multiple years, and more importantly, captains who took being a captain very seriously. Guys who stepped up and assumed the resposnsibilities of leadership; guys who were active as captains, guys who helped teammates develop and were captains other players looked up to.

He's trying to build an entire roster of leaders.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I didn't get to see many games last year so I can't really say if this was a factor or not but I wonder how much Jordan Love being a first time starter and his erratic play in the first half of the season may have impacted Dillon's performance. No one was afraid of Love and our receivers and with Dillon getting the snaps when Jones was out maybe the defenses felt they could key on him. We know the passing game came on in the second half and we all know how Jones ended the season. Was it a coincidence? Had Dillon been the guy at the end would his numbers have been better?

I guess my point is that I agree with you. I think Dillon could bounce back nicely. If nothing else we could have the best #3 RB in the league

Interesting point. I had not thought about why Dillon's play may have been affected, but your scenario makes sense. They weren't a good team in the first half, Jones was out, and opponents had the luxury of keying on Dillon. I don't think any RB could play consistently well in that situation, and Dillon is not an elusive runner.

Things should be a lot different this year. It makes sense then to keep Dillon for some consistency with the run game. He was never gonna be the #1 back anyway.

 

[PackerDNA]

The first four picks could be home runs. Lot of intrigue and potential in the rest

 

[PikeBadger]

We, according to various analysts, may have drafted the best prospect at ILB, S and RB. I don't recall that ever happening before.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We, according to various analysts, may have drafted the best prospect at ILB, S and RB. I don't recall that ever happening before.

Good point. Even with a weak draft, the Packers came away with arguably the best players at these three positions. The one surprise for me was E. Cooper. Looking at his film, I really thought he was gonna go a lot higher than #45.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The first four picks could be home runs. Lot of intrigue and potential in the rest

I think the sleeper among the later picks is Monk. Just have a hunch he'll be a very good lineman in the NFL.

 

[Poppa San]

the week before, Interesting point. I had not thought about why Dillon's play may have been affected, but your scenario makes sense. They weren't a good team in the first half, Jones was out, and opponents had the luxury of keying on Dillon. I don't think any RB could play consistently well in that situation, and Dillon is not an elusive runner.

Things should be a lot different this year. It makes sense then to keep Dillon for some consistency with the run game. He was never gonna be the #1 back anyway.

The early season poor pass attack doesn't explain his 14/43 on Thanksgiving, 14/29 the week before, 33/126 over the next two games, or the 14/39 the last 2 games of the regular season he played.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The early season poor pass attack doesn't explain his 14/43 on Thanksgiving, 14/29 the week before, 33/126 over the next two games, or the 14/39 the last 2 games of the regular season he played.

Well he's always been a one-dimensional runner. He certainly isn't elusive. Teams have figured it out and know how to bring him down. Does he make the 53? A lot depends on how Lloyd plays, and if Wilson can show anything.

 

[Poppa San]

Well he's always been a one-dimensional runner. He certainly isn't elusive. Teams have figured it out and know how to bring him down. Does he make the 53? A lot depends on how Lloyd plays, and if Wilson can show anything.

Unless there is a promising young TE for it, he gets Deguera's spot.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Good point. Even with a weak draft, the Packers came away with arguably the best players at these three positions. The one surprise for me was E. Cooper. Looking at his film, I really thought he was gonna go a lot higher than #45.

I feel comfortable saying straight up that we got the best LB, because the fact that he was the first one taken (and the next one didn't go for almost a full additional round) tells me the whole NFL agreed he was the best in the class.

As for Nubin/Bullard, there were 3-4 safeties all year long who swirled around in the "Top 4" conversation, with any one of them being considered 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at any one moment. Nubin and Bullard seemed to be two most people considered the 2 best, and while Nubin got the nod more often than Bullard, they're close enough that calling Bullard the best is a valid assertion.

Lloyd? Even tougher call, because there just was no consensus #1 this year - or even close to it, really. But Lloyd has as good an argument for Number One as any other player this year. Put it this way, I don't think there's any way to say someone else is better right now. This kid is going to grind out a lot of yardage for the Packers over the next 5-6 years.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I feel comfortable saying straight up that we got the best LB, because the fact that he was the first one taken (and the next one didn't go for almost a full additional round) tells me the whole NFL agreed he was the best in the class.

As for Nubin/Bullard, there were 3-4 safeties all year long who swirled around in the "Top 4" conversation, with any one of them being considered 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at any one moment. Nubin and Bullard seemed to be two most people considered the 2 best, and while Nubin got the nod more often than Bullard, they're close enough that calling Bullard the best is a valid assertion.

Lloyd? Even tougher call, because there just was no consensus #1 this year - or even close to it, really. But Lloyd has as good an argument for Number One as any other player this year. Put it this way, I don't think there's any way to say someone else is better right now. This kid is going to grind out a lot of yardage for the Packers over the next 5-6 years.

I agree with you on Lloyd. And Cooper and Bullard may have been the best in the draft at their positions, but that doesn't mean much in weak draft. At least one or two LBs are taken every year in round 1 and maybe one safety.

So as always the proof will come from the play. I do think Cooper will be a better LB than Walker and that Bullard will be a great complement to McKinney. Now we need to see it translated into production for all three draftees.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The more I look at some of the really key players in this draft, the more I deep dive into Hafley's defensive philosophy, and the more I eavesdrop on various podcasts, press conferences, and interviews, the more I start to think I'm getting a more complete picture of what we'll be seeing on defense this season.

We're coming for the quarterback.

First of all, I've seen podcasts and coaching clinics from Hafley going back years, and there is one theme that is absolutely constant in every single thing he says and does - do not let the other team run their play according to their plan, interfere with and disrupt every single thing they do (especially the quarterback) and put the QB into a position where he has to make a decision he did not want to make, sooner than he would like to make it. Just that simple. Make the QB's job harder than he expected it to be; make it as hard as possible. Ruin the quarterback's day; don't let him do anything at all on his own timetable.

Look at our Day Two and early Day Three picks, especially some of the ones we thought were questionable. TyRon Hopper is a pass rusher. Over the last 2 seasons, he's the 3rd best pass rushing LB in the SEC, and 6th best in the entire country. He has 30.5 tackles in the backfield over his college career, and 9.5 sacks.

His position coach (former Packer LB D.J. Smith) says he honestly believes Hopper is the best one on one pass rusher in the entire draft, which is obviously a pretty bold statement, but you know how coaches brag up their own players. Point is, though, the man has some numbers to support the argument that he's a guy who can get to a quarterback.

And look at Evan Williams. Williams lined up for just 20 passing snaps last year, and of those 20 plays, he piled up 4.5 sacks and 5 hurries. Either pressured the QB or flat-out dropped him on almost half of the plays. That's one of the best ratios in the country. Last year, he also had 5 tackles for loss.

Kitan's another guy who can blitz; in fact, both he and Williams have recorded sacks on Caleb Williams.

So a couple of thes early to mid round guys we thought might be a reach, maybe now we can see why Green Bay rated them more highly than other teams. Maybe they have some fairly specific plans for how to use these guys. I think Hafley prioritizes guys who know how to get into the backfield.

 

[OldSchool101]

There’s definitely a theme of “Ball Hawking” type playmakers from the draft

 

[Thirteen Below]

There’s definitely a theme of “Ball Hawking” type playmakers from the draft

Also, speed. One of Gute's preferences this year was guys who run really fast, and hit really hard when they get there. Speed makes the offense act quickly, which means they need to think quickly, which means they may make bad decisions.

It all fits everything I'm picking up on from watching Hafley's old coaching clinics and podcasts - do not ever let the offense dictate the play; take the initiative away from them at every opportunity, interfere with every single thing they try to do, and make them react to you instead of you react to what they decide to do. Don't let the receiver run the route he wants to run, don't give the QB time for the routes to develop, don't give the passer a clean window to drop the ball into - force him to throw risky passes, sooner than he would have wanted to. Force him to squeeze it into a tight spot.

No more of this "keep the play in front of us, let them come to us" crap. No more "bend and bend and bend until they get inside the 10, and then just break so that we can get the ball back". I think i see very clearly what Hafley is trying to do, and the only question is, is he good enough to make it work? If he can, I see good years ahead.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I've seen his film and you're right - get him in space and he's very hard to stop. He seems to have great vision and/or instincts. He doesn't look very elusive. He's stocky and built low to the ground. But he can stop and change direction very quickly and he's fast. Looking forward to watching him play in G&G.

Plus, the man has massive upper body strength. Trying to bring him down when he's got a full head of steam is like trying to tackle a freakin' fire hydrant. As a former linebacker, having him hitting me at full speed 8-10 times in a game would make for a damned lomg afternoon. I pity the 200-lb safety or CB who's the last man in his path when he breaks through the 1st and 2nd layers.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Plus, the man has massive upper body strength. Trying to bring him down when he's got a full head of steam is like trying to tackle a freakin' fire hydrant. As a former linebacker, having him hitting me at full speed 8-10 times in a game would make for a damned lomg afternoon. I pity the 200-lb safety or CB who's the last man in his path when he breaks through the 1st and 2nd layers.

Good observation. Yeah he does kinda look like a bowling ball once he gets going. Dillon has incredible lower body strength, but that's about it - he's purely a north/south guy. Lloyd can move around. He doesn't have Jones' ability to "swim" through tackles, but his cuts are sharp and his acceleration outstanding.

 

[DoURant]

Here's the Roster of those attending Packers Rookie Minicamp

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[OldSchool101]

Also, speed. One of Gute's preferences this year was guys who run really fast, and hit really hard when they get there. Speed makes the offense act quickly, which means they need to think quickly, which means they may make bad decisions.

It all fits everything I'm picking up on from watching Hafley's old coaching clinics and podcasts - do not ever let the offense dictate the play; take the initiative away from them at every opportunity, interfere with every single thing they try to do, and make them react to you instead of you react to what they decide to do. Don't let the receiver run the route he wants to run, don't give the QB time for the routes to develop, don't give the passer a clean window to drop the ball into - force him to throw risky passes, sooner than he would have wanted to. Force him to squeeze it into a tight spot.

No more of this "keep the play in front of us, let them come to us" crap. No more "bend and bend and bend until they get inside the 10, and then just break so that we can get the ball back". I think i see very clearly what Hafley is trying to do, and the only question is, is he good enough to make it work? If he can, I see good years ahead.

I can see that. Sort of analogous to Gutey taking over for Ted and being more aggressive.
One of the observations that I’ve always made is under Pettine or Barry and even some Capers.. we’d blitz and then still play the CB’s in zone or off the LOS 8 yards. Which kind of defeats the purpose. If you already know the ball is coming out in 1.5 seconds why would our CB’s or LB’s play so far off the LOS?? It drive me crazy and we’d get burned more often than not. Our opponent QB would just take that easy completion for 5 yards in stride. We’d both miss a coverage sack AND allow our opponent to dictate the tempo. I get playing zone but not in that scenario. That’s the 1 time you jam the Receiver at or near the LOS and force the QB to throw into traffic or throw it away or take a sack. As you said “disturb the route timing” don’t let that Receiver get to his practice point. At least just tag him with physicality and frustrate the play.

I hope Hafley does not repeat that Circus routine.