2024 Draft Prospect Discussions

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sure, they could wait until November like you suggest, which isn't a bad strategy, but that decision could also blow up in their face, and could cost them more than $45M per season, and/or worse.

Probably didn't close my "thoughts" well enough. Yes, it could cost them more than $45M per season to sign Love. So lets say it costs....$50M. I'm fine with that, as long as they also had the option to say "Ooooops, guess we were wrong, lets back it down to $15M per, until you get better or we find your replacement."

Guess what I am trying to say, is I don't see the amount of Love's money that could shift UP, as high as it could potentially shift DOWN.

 

[PikeBadger]

Based on your thoughts on rounds 1 & 2 I am guessing you probably meant LB, OL or S in the 3rd. At present they could not fill all 3. I agree for the most part. My unimportant thinking is go BPA at 25. If BPA is not a LB-S-OL-CB try and fill those with your day 2 picks. If it is one of those positions go BPA at 41. Again, hopefully you have picked someone from the 3 positions left. If not you still have 3 picks to cover the 3 remaining positions. If 41 is one of the 3 remaining "need" positions go BPA at 58. I think you get my drift. Hopefully the board falls where the 5 picks between 25 & 91 lead to a quality LB-S-OL-CB and the highest guy on his board not from one of those positions. Day3 double up at OL-S & LB at some point as well as addressing expiring contracts and guys getting a little long in the tooth if a DT or DE was not the BPA from the 1st 2 days. RB to me falls into that 3rd round BPA or a day 3 fourth or 5th rounder. 6th and 7th rounds might be better spent on some doubling up and find an UDFA as your 2nd back in camp. Just somebody thinking out loud. As always this is just my opinion.

I know this sounds greedy, but I'd rather have 6 picks between 33-91. I'd feel more certain on the overall quality of the draft class and its effect 3 years down the road.

 

[DoURant]

I know this sounds greedy, but I'd rather have 6 picks between 33-91. I'd feel more certain on the overall quality of the draft class and its effect 3 years down the road.

Carolina could be a prime candidate, being they don't have a 1st Rd pick. However, they only have 7 total picks, but 2 are in the 2nd rd (33 and 39)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I know this sounds greedy, but I'd rather have 6 picks between 33-91. I'd feel more certain on the overall quality of the draft class and its effect 3 years down the road.

I agree. Especially given that the Packers 1st round pick is @ #25. Not saying that there won't be a guy there that will improve the Packers, but having a 3rd dart in both rounds 2 and 3, for six total darts, instead of that pick, especially if they are both early, might help the team in the long run. Technically, you are only picking up one extra dart, but sometimes there isn't a lot of difference between that #33 and #25 pick. Unless of course their names are Kevin King and TJ Watt.

Given that there are a couple of QB's that are projected to go late in Round 1 or early in Round 2, I could see one of the QB needy teams, willing to give the Packers some extra value for that 25th pick.

 

[Schultz]

I know this sounds greedy, but I'd rather have 6 picks between 33-91. I'd feel more certain on the overall quality of the draft class and its effect 3 years down the road.

If for some reason Balt. wanted to move up, then giving them 25 & 169 for 30 & 93 would work for you?

 

[Schultz]

I agree. Especially given that the Packers 1st round pick is @ #25. Not saying that there won't be a guy there that will improve the Packers, but having a 3rd dart in both rounds 2 and 3, for six total darts, instead of that pick, especially if they are both early, might help the team in the long run. Technically, you are only picking up one extra dart, but sometimes there isn't a lot of difference between that #33 and #25 pick. Unless of course their names are Kevin King and TJ Watt.

Given that there are a couple of QB's that are projected to go late in Round 1 or early in Round 2, I could see one of the QB needy teams, willing to give the Packers some extra value for that 25th pick.

I thought of that also, but the truly NEEDY QB teams all pick before 25. 1,2,3, (6), 11,12,13. Giants at 6 is a longshot to me. I don't expect all 6 of them to go QB that early. The next group of needy QB teams are too far back IMO. 44,45,(47),52. Of course there are draft night trades that could change the dynamic. Buffalo at 28 looking for a WR or Balt. at 30 looking for an OL IMO are at this point in time are the best possibilities.

 

[DoURant]

Washington has 6 picks in the first 3 rds. (2, 36, 40, 67, 78, and 100) They may want to get back into the 1st, and have plenty of ammo to do it.

 

[Schultz]

Washington has 6 picks in the first 3 rds. (2, 36, 40, 67, 78, and 100) They may want to get back into the 1st, and have plenty of ammo to do it.

Absolutely. It's just that IMO 36 is a bit lower than I would ideally like to drop. Then there is the added caveat that if you stay in the 1st round you have that 5th year option. GB may not have a choice though if the only willing trade partners are in the early 2nd round. I just looked at the trade chart. 36 & 78 works out to 20 pt. Packer advantage. 40 & 78 comes to 20 pt. Washington advantage.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Probably didn't close my "thoughts" well enough. Yes, it could cost them more than $45M per season to sign Love. So lets say it costs....$50M. I'm fine with that, as long as they also had the option to say "Ooooops, guess we were wrong, lets back it down to $15M per, until you get better or we find your replacement."

Guess what I am trying to say, is I don't see the amount of Love's money that could shift UP, as high as it could potentially shift DOWN.

It would be nice if contracts worked this way. Unfortunately they don’t. Denver owes Wilson about $75 mil to play for Pittsburgh.

Now in real life, if a person or company doesn’t deliver on a contract they don’t get paid.

 

[PikeBadger]

If for some reason Balt. wanted to move up, then giving them 25 & 169 for 30 & 93 would work for you?

Probably not. I wouldn't want to give up 169 unless I also got a 5th round pick in '25 as well.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Probably not. I wouldn't want to give up 169 unless I also got a 5th round pick in '25 as well.

I don't know what the pick-value charts say, but yeah I'm not crazy about the deal unless there's a little more. A good number of solid OT guys could go between 25 and 30. I'm more interested in Gluten moving up. From his interview a few days ago, he sounded more likely to move down than up.

Well the waiting is over. Then we'll have all kinds of new things to chat about......

 

[PikeBadger]

Absolutely. It's just that IMO 36 is a bit lower than I would ideally like to drop. Then there is the added caveat that if you stay in the 1st round you have that 5th year option. GB may not have a choice though if the only willing trade partners are in the early 2nd round. I just looked at the trade chart. 36 & 78 works out to 20 pt. Packer advantage. 40 & 78 comes to 20 pt. Washington advantage.

I'm ok with 36 and 78. The team moving up usually would be expected to pay a premium for moving up into the 1st round imo. I really don't think there is much appreciable difference in player talent between picks 25 and 45 in most years.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Absolutely. It's just that IMO 36 is a bit lower than I would ideally like to drop. Then there is the added caveat that if you stay in the 1st round you have that 5th year option. GB may not have a choice though if the only willing trade partners are in the early 2nd round. I just looked at the trade chart. 36 & 78 works out to 20 pt. Packer advantage. 40 & 78 comes to 20 pt. Washington advantage.

Wow, I didn't know Washington had this many early picks. They'll grab a QB at #2, and with all the WR talent in round 1, would seemingly love to get back and take a WR to go with their new QB. Thanks for the info DoURant.

Schultz, I'm with you on not wanting to drop out of round 1. The latter picks in round 1 will be more valuable than most years for GB because of all the QBs and WRs coming off the board early, as many as 10. Even so, dropping 11 spots just doesn't sit well.

Now Gluten has traded back only to trade right back into round 1, so this is a possibility. IMO the biggest need is CB and then OT. CBs are limited and will go early. There will be plenty of good Ts left at #25.

Well that's what makes watching the draft entertaining.

 

[Krabs]

Wow, I didn't know Washington had this many early picks. They'll grab a QB at #2, and with all the WR talent in round 1, would seemingly love to get back and take a WR to go with their new QB. Thanks for the info DoURant.

Schultz, I'm with you on not wanting to drop out of round 1. The latter picks in round 1 will be more valuable than most years for GB because of all the QBs and WRs coming off the board early, as many as 10. Even so, dropping 11 spots just doesn't sit well.

Now Gluten has traded back only to trade right back into round 1, so this is a possibility. IMO the biggest need is CB and then OT. CBs are limited and will go early. There will be plenty of good Ts left at #25.

Well that's what makes watching the draft entertaining.

I'm hopeful that Nate Wiggins will be there at 25. I'm not as high as others are on Cooper DeJean. I know he has a high RAS score, which Gute loves, but I'd prefer Wiggins. His 4.28 speed is insane. Now Cooper isn't slow at 4.44 and he's also bigger at 200 lbs, so I wouldn't cry if he came on board. Kool Aid could be in the mix too. Any of those guys would make me feel good about the first round.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm hopeful that Nate Wiggins will be there at 25. I'm not as high as others are on Cooper DeJean. I know he has a high RAS score, which Gute loves, but I'd prefer Wiggins. His 4.28 speed is insane. Now Cooper isn't slow at 4.44 and he's also bigger at 200 lbs, so I wouldn't cry if he came on board. Kool Aid could be in the mix too. Any of those guys would make me feel good about the first round.

I agree with you. Problem is Wiggins is unlikely to be there at #25. If Gluten does trade into the top 15 to grab a CB, I prefer Terrion Arnold. But there are 3 or 4 CBs who will go early, including Quinyon Mitchell, and any of them would be fine.

DeJean projects as a S IMO, or a slot corner. The greater need is at perimeter corner. I don't see Stokes coming back from his injuries, Valentine may be ok. Even so, for a team competing for a deep playoff run, the DB group needs to be better. FWIW I'm assuming they start Nixon in the slot. Not so sure about that but I trust Gluten knows what he's doing there. And with the new KO rules, Nixon is an even better weapon.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm hopeful that Nate Wiggins will be there at 25. I'm not as high as others are on Cooper DeJean. I know he has a high RAS score, which Gute loves, but I'd prefer Wiggins. His 4.28 speed is insane. Now Cooper isn't slow at 4.44 and he's also bigger at 200 lbs, so I wouldn't cry if he came on board. Kool Aid could be in the mix too. Any of those guys would make me feel good about the first round.

The two cannot be compared as they are entirely different players IMO...one is going to fortify your outside corner position and the other is a diverse slot/off coverage corner/safety swiss army knife.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The two cannot be compared as they are entirely different players IMO...one is going to fortify your outside corner position and the other is a diverse slot/off coverage corner/safety swiss army knife.

I don't think Krabs was comparing them as equal in skillset, only that a true CB would be preferable to a Swiss army knife, as you note, with DeJean.

To me the difference is that DeJean may be there at #25. Wiggins and the other true perimeter CBs will be long gone.

 

[Schultz]

For what it's worth, this last round of mocks by the "experts" Mitchell and Arnold are still going in the 15-20 range while Wiggins has dropped and DeJean has moved up to the 20-25 range. Kool-Aid still at 25-30.

 

[gopkrs]

Not going to be specific cause I honestly have not a clue. But I think it is O line or linebacker. Maybe DeJean if available.

 

[DoURant]

I don't think Krabs was comparing them as equal in skillset, only that a true CB would be preferable to a Swiss army knife, as you note, with DeJean.

To me the difference is that DeJean may be there at #25. Wiggins and the other true perimeter CBs will be long gone.

I think Wiggins will be there at #25, his weight is what puts him in question for the Packers, although he has been putting on some weight, and is at least in the 180's now, so maybe...

Edit: The reason I think he is in play, is because the Packers have shown they like speed in secondary...4.28...

 

[Half Empty]

It would be nice if contracts worked this way. Unfortunately they don’t. Denver owes Wilson about $75 mil to play for Pittsburgh.

Now in real life, if a person or company doesn’t deliver on a contract they don’t get paid.

Golden parachutes?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Golden parachutes?

Yeah it's not a perfect world. Just as disgusting to see a failed exec leave a company and its customers in tatters while he or she scampers away with what's left in the cash account.

For all but a very few, careers are "pay to produce". which is the fair way to do things.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It would be nice if contracts worked this way. Unfortunately they don’t. Denver owes Wilson about $75 mil to play for Pittsburgh.

Now in real life, if a person or company doesn’t deliver on a contract they don’t get paid.

Not sure I explained what I was thinking or you misinterpreted. My point is this; if you lock Love up NOW for say 5 years, you are committing to him for quite a bit of guaranteed money. However, if you WAIT on a resigning until mid season, than you have more information to gauge his potential future value.

My comment made light of the fact that in todays contracts, you do not have the ability to say "crap, you aren't as good as we thought, lets change the numbers", unless of course it was a purely incentive based contract with few guarantees.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not sure I explained what I was thinking or you misinterpreted. My point is this; if you lock Love up NOW for say 5 years, you are committing to him for quite a bit of guaranteed money. However, if you WAIT on a resigning until mid season, than you have more information to gauge his potential future value.

My comment made light of the fact that in todays contracts, you do not have the ability to say "crap, you aren't as good as we thought, lets change the numbers", unless of course it was a purely incentive based contract with few guarantees.

Gotcha. Yeah it sure sounds like they're gonna cut a new deal before the season starts. Probably $50 mil year for 3 years. If they wait until mid-season and he produces as well as the second half of last year, the price could go up a bit, and he will certainly be entertaining other offers.

I think they should just get the deal done. What he managed to do last year wasn't a fluke. These contracts are almost always risky, this one maybe more due to the uncertainty. I do think he's the guy at QB and hopefully very productive for many years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My Odds for what Gute does tonight:

- Stays at #25 and selects an instant starter in the Secondary or on the OL (65%)

- Moves up and grabs the #1 player at their position, but still OL or DB (14%)

- Trades out of 1st (20%)

- Trades the #25 and #41 picks to move up and grabs a QB (1%)