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Will we have a 2020 NFL Season?
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 879322"><p>I don't know if it is still the top of the first inning but it could be.</p><p></p><p>Some recent evidence indicates that a person's immunity in contracting the virus may wear off after a couple of months. If that is generally the case and not isolated to a low percentage of individuals the notion that herd immunity as a contagion control goes out the window.</p><p></p><p>That would leave vaccine development as the sole pathway toward normalcy. Over 100 vaccines are in various stages of development and testing, over 20 in human trials, three are funded by the US government for phase III clinical trails starting from now through September. Even if one of these vaccines proves safe and effective, a big if, by early next year, the bigger hurdle is manufacturing, distribution and innoculation of at leat 70% of the population to get to something approximating herd immunity.</p><p></p><p>Getting from a vaccine to mass innoculation could prove problematic if the successful developer claims intellectual property rights for profit. It's not like the US government can simply "nationalize" a vaccine and direct it's production even if the administration at the time was so inclined. The current one has been indisposed to invoking the war powers act. Even so, Truman nationalized the steel industry by executive order during the Korean war to avert a strike which the Supreme Court eventually struck down. Whoever develops the winning vaccine needs to "open source" it to manufacturers, then global governments need to buy it and distriubute it. Normalcy in a globalized world implies opening borders which implies 7 - 8 billion vaccination candidates.</p><p></p><p>Even then, the crackpot conspriacy theorists, anti-vaxers and "my American freedoms" nut jobs need to be persuaded to take the shot. It's bad enough that with something like the measles vaccine which has been studied over and over again over long periods of time and demonstratrated to be safe you get some school districts where innoculation rates have dropped into the 80ish% range with measles outbreaks even in educated suburbs where people should know better. How high will the resistance be to an innoculation with a new, fast-tracked vaccine?</p><p></p><p>Speaking for myself, someone who understands the broad risks and global impacts and who practices the safety measures (mask/distancing/hand washing) for personal and societal benefits, I will not be clamoring to get to the head of the innoculation line being constitutionally indisposed toward being somebody's subject of a beta test that has been pushed into production which this vaccine will inevitably be. Phase III placebo-controlled clinical trials are not foolproof. So you have to wonder how many others besides the fringe anti-science contingent (which has gotten pretty big in recent years) will step out of the innoculation line. Then again, I am psychologically predisposed toward taking social distancing in stride, with lower household spending a compensating factor. I might think differently if I were in the work force surrounded by bosses or co-workers not taking this seriously.</p><p></p><p>In the mean time, the virus could mutate and become resistant to the vaccine. We see that with the flu where vaccines have to be constantly "updated" and this sure ain't the flu. That would be very, very bad.</p><p></p><p>As for more effective treatment protocols in place it doesn't do much good if the treatments cannot be produced fast enough (Remdesivir, for example). Pence made a show of shipping 5,000 treatment cycles of that drug out of a federal stockpile to Florida which covers about 12 hours of new cases. Perhaps more importantly, if the hospital beds are all full, in particular the ICU beds, as is the case in a growing number of southern and western locales, death rates will rise.</p><p></p><p>What is not talked about is the collateral damage when ICU beds are full, people with other acute conditions or severe traumas who undergo delayed treatment or are not treated at all under a triage protocol.</p><p></p><p>If all goes swimmingly, we could be past the first inning. That would entail broad embrace of basic precaustions, which some governors are resisting, a broad and fast implementation of an effective vaccination regime, and no noteable mutations. I wouldn't count on it in what so far as been, to bring this back to football, a "rumbling, stumbling, fumbling" respose, to borrow a phrase from Chris Berman.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 879322"] I don't know if it is still the top of the first inning but it could be. Some recent evidence indicates that a person's immunity in contracting the virus may wear off after a couple of months. If that is generally the case and not isolated to a low percentage of individuals the notion that herd immunity as a contagion control goes out the window. That would leave vaccine development as the sole pathway toward normalcy. Over 100 vaccines are in various stages of development and testing, over 20 in human trials, three are funded by the US government for phase III clinical trails starting from now through September. Even if one of these vaccines proves safe and effective, a big if, by early next year, the bigger hurdle is manufacturing, distribution and innoculation of at leat 70% of the population to get to something approximating herd immunity. Getting from a vaccine to mass innoculation could prove problematic if the successful developer claims intellectual property rights for profit. It's not like the US government can simply "nationalize" a vaccine and direct it's production even if the administration at the time was so inclined. The current one has been indisposed to invoking the war powers act. Even so, Truman nationalized the steel industry by executive order during the Korean war to avert a strike which the Supreme Court eventually struck down. Whoever develops the winning vaccine needs to "open source" it to manufacturers, then global governments need to buy it and distriubute it. Normalcy in a globalized world implies opening borders which implies 7 - 8 billion vaccination candidates. Even then, the crackpot conspriacy theorists, anti-vaxers and "my American freedoms" nut jobs need to be persuaded to take the shot. It's bad enough that with something like the measles vaccine which has been studied over and over again over long periods of time and demonstratrated to be safe you get some school districts where innoculation rates have dropped into the 80ish% range with measles outbreaks even in educated suburbs where people should know better. How high will the resistance be to an innoculation with a new, fast-tracked vaccine? Speaking for myself, someone who understands the broad risks and global impacts and who practices the safety measures (mask/distancing/hand washing) for personal and societal benefits, I will not be clamoring to get to the head of the innoculation line being constitutionally indisposed toward being somebody's subject of a beta test that has been pushed into production which this vaccine will inevitably be. Phase III placebo-controlled clinical trials are not foolproof. So you have to wonder how many others besides the fringe anti-science contingent (which has gotten pretty big in recent years) will step out of the innoculation line. Then again, I am psychologically predisposed toward taking social distancing in stride, with lower household spending a compensating factor. I might think differently if I were in the work force surrounded by bosses or co-workers not taking this seriously. In the mean time, the virus could mutate and become resistant to the vaccine. We see that with the flu where vaccines have to be constantly "updated" and this sure ain't the flu. That would be very, very bad. As for more effective treatment protocols in place it doesn't do much good if the treatments cannot be produced fast enough (Remdesivir, for example). Pence made a show of shipping 5,000 treatment cycles of that drug out of a federal stockpile to Florida which covers about 12 hours of new cases. Perhaps more importantly, if the hospital beds are all full, in particular the ICU beds, as is the case in a growing number of southern and western locales, death rates will rise. What is not talked about is the collateral damage when ICU beds are full, people with other acute conditions or severe traumas who undergo delayed treatment or are not treated at all under a triage protocol. If all goes swimmingly, we could be past the first inning. That would entail broad embrace of basic precaustions, which some governors are resisting, a broad and fast implementation of an effective vaccination regime, and no noteable mutations. I wouldn't count on it in what so far as been, to bring this back to football, a "rumbling, stumbling, fumbling" respose, to borrow a phrase from Chris Berman. [/QUOTE]
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