Who Plays, Week 1, 2018

[HardRightEdge]

We're past the point of woulda-shoulda-coulda, Kahlil Mack, whoever, yada, yada, yada. We're down to brass tacks now.

I consciously have avoided looking at any reports on what the Packers might have said about the actual depth chart for Week 1, not the pretend depth chart, nor any injury updates, so if anybody has read any coaches comments you are clearly free to chime in. Of course you could quote a reporter's speculation for whatever that's worth. These are strictly my observations.

Cornerback

With it being a 75% nickel/dime league, there are of course 3 spots to consider.

• Williams is locked at one perimeter spot.
• Is King 100%? Are they confident his shoulder is OK? That might keep him out of the starter perimeter spot. I would give it to Jackson regardless.
• If they start King, I'd use Jackson in the slot. He didn't get a lot of work there in preseason, but he did get some and nobody was able to do anything against him at either position. You gotta get this guy on the field.
• If they don't use King, I'd go with House in the slot.
• Alexander does not look ready. He missed too much time and may still be dinged up.
• If King plays, Alexander sits in dime. If King doesn't play, Alexander gets the dime call or they go 3 safeties with Brice and Jones.

Wide Receiver

• The top 3 are set.
• Who's the #4 when they go 4 wide if Graham not in the slot? Or if somebody gets hurt? Since WRs don't usually take 100% snaps, taking a blow here and there or pulled for some snaps if they take a shot, who's the guy?
• This is a tough call, and for me it depends on role and matchups. For the wideout spots I'd go with Valdez-Scantling if the situation calls for the stretch-the-field option. I'd go with Moore as the slot or possession wideout option.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Injury report, per Demovsky:

Jones out
Burks questionable - limited practice participant
Crawford questionable - limited practice participant

 

[Heyjoe4]

Injury report, per Demovsky:

Jones out
Burks questionable - limited practice participant
Crawford questionable - limited practice participant

Not bad for week 1, and given the injury problems that have plagued the Pack. I really like Burks, but would rather he miss a game than risk a re-injury.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We're past the point of woulda-shoulda-coulda, Kahlil Mack, whoever, yada, yada, yada. We're down to brass tacks now.

I consciously have avoided looking at any reports on what the Packers might have said about the actual depth chart for Week 1, not the pretend depth chart, nor any injury updates, so if anybody has read any coaches comments you are clearly free to chime in. Of course you could quote a reporter's speculation for whatever that's worth. These are strictly my observations.

Cornerback

With it being a 75% nickel/dime league, there are of course 3 spots to consider.

• Williams is locked at one perimeter spot.
• Is King 100%? Are they confident his shoulder is OK? That might keep him out of the starter perimeter spot. I would give it to Jackson regardless.
• If they start King, I'd use Jackson in the slot. He didn't get a lot of work there in preseason, but he did get some and nobody was able to do anything against him at either position. You gotta get this guy on the field.
• If they don't use King, I'd go with House in the slot.
• Alexander does not look ready. He missed too much time and may still be dinged up.
• If King plays, Alexander sits in dime. If King doesn't play, Alexander gets the dime call or they go 3 safeties with Brice and Jones.

Wide Receiver

• The top 3 are set.
• Who's the #4 when they go 4 wide if Graham not in the slot? Or if somebody gets hurt? Since WRs don't usually take 100% snaps, taking a blow here and there or pulled for some snaps if they take a shot, who's the guy?
• This is a tough call, and for me it depends on role and matchups. For the wideout spots I'd go with Valdez-Scantling if the situation calls for the stretch-the-field option. I'd go with Moore as the slot or possession wideout option.

Nice analysis, and not much to differ with. I agree Alexander isn’t ready, or at least not ready to start. He’ll see action, but it will be limited. I’ll be watching King. Is that shoulder healed? And they have to find ways to get Jackson on the field. I don’t care if he plays the slot or perimeter, he’ll always be somewhere close to the ball. As for the receivers, Graham and Scantling can stretch the field and Cobb and Moore are possession guys. Although Moore has speed as well and I won’t be surprised to see him take snaps from the outside. Biggest question is how the starting O line fares against a very good Chicago D. I expect a win, but a much closer game than many fans are probably expecting. Until proven wrong, the Bears greatest weakness is still QB. Trubisky has a lot to prove and that he is NOT Jay Cutler when it comes to INTs.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Not bad for week 1, and given the injury problems that have plagued the Pack. I really like Burks, but would rather he miss a game than risk a re-injury.

That's better than "not bad" when you consider the guys on IR are Kumerow, Mays, Murphy, Rollins and Ryan, with Ryan the only guy likely to have gotten meaningful snaps if they were all healthy.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Nice analysis, and not much to differ with. I agree Alexander isn’t ready, or at least not ready to start. He’ll see action, but it will be limited. I’ll be watching King. Is that shoulder healed? And they have to find ways to get Jackson on the field. I don’t care if he plays the slot or perimeter, he’ll always be somewhere close to the ball. As for the receivers, Graham and Scantling can stretch the field and Cobb and Moore are possession guys. Although Moore has speed as well and I won’t be surprised to see him take snaps from the outside. Biggest question is how the starting O line fares against a very good Chicago D. I expect a win, but a much closer game than many fans are probably expecting. Until proven wrong, the Bears greatest weakness is still QB. Trubisky has a lot to prove and that he is NOT Jay Cutler when it comes to INTs.

If Moore gets snaps it could be on the outside in 4-wide or if one of the guys gets gassed and steps out for a couple plays. Adams can, and has, run out of the slot.

There's no question Trubisky has a lot to prove.

I'm not that concerned about the starting O-Line. Oh, Mack, shiver me timbers! In the 2015 game against Bakhtiari and Bulaga, Mack had 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist. Williams is a very good pass blocker if they need him.

Most NFL games are decided by 7 points or less. All but two of the betting lines are under 7 this week. The Packers are favored by a consensus 7 at home, which looks to be about right.

But primarily, I do not expect a well-played football game in keeping with the NFL habit in the first few weeks of the season, with the Philly-Atlanta game being the most recent evidence. That game had 26 penalties accepted with I don't know how many declined, and that was only the half of it in a bad football game. Something less than 26 penalties might make for a better football game.

 

[sschind]

That's better than "not bad" when you consider the guys on IR are Kumerow, Mays, Murphy, Rollins and Ryan, with Ryan the only guy likely to have gotten meaningful snaps if they were all healthy.

I'd say, given the injury report and who is on IR we are about as injury free as one can hope for to key personel. You are correct in saying that Ryan is the only one on IR likely to have gotten meaningful snaps. I would add that he is probably the only one who was pretty much guaranteed a spot on the 53, oh and Murphy. There was talk, at least at some levels, of the others being cut. Maybe not likely but certainly possible.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As for the receivers, Graham and Scantling can stretch the field and Cobb and Moore are possession guys. Although Moore has speed as well and I won’t be surprised to see him take snaps from the outside.

Graham is a possession receiver that doesn't have the speed to stretch the field. Moore on the other hand has the ability to do that but he has to improve catching the ball.

 

[HardRightEdge]

My impression was that Petine played more dime defense (whether 2 safety or 3 safety) than I can ever recall in an NFL game. Then I looked at the defensive snap counts per Football Outsiders:

King, Williams, Clinton-Dix and Brice: all 100%
Alexander: 70%
Jackson: 66%
Whitehead: 36%

Add it all up and you get 572%, or 5.72 DBs per play on average.

ILB:

Martinez: 100%
Morrison: 16%
That's all.

Yeah, sure, Whitehead or Brice were coming up into the box as a psudo-ILB, but they're no ILBs. They're box safeties in a 3-safety dime.

You know, as deep as Capers' kitchen sinks happened to be, Pettine's looks deeper, yet with less evident confusion in the secondary.