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Draft Talk
The Trade No One Sees Coming Mock
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<blockquote data-quote="AmishMafia" data-source="post: 1015406" data-attributes="member: 2846"><p>BTW The draft contest was born out of an argument with a certain poster on another site who proclaimed an inside source and posted rumors. He posted several mock drafts and I noted that of the over 60 names he listed, he did not get a single player. A feat I proved mathematically is difficult to do when you consider only 300-400 players in any given year are draftable. Rule out players the Packers don't need or don't fit the system and you maybe have 200 players. That works out to about a 30% chance to pick any one player, or 99% chance for hitting one when drafting 8 guys.</p><p></p><p>The 20 picks in the draft contest computes to about 67% chance to hit 1. Of course knowing what Gute looks for is becoming clearer and we can cut down the 200 draftable players. Drafting 12 guys also helps the odds.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AmishMafia, post: 1015406, member: 2846"] BTW The draft contest was born out of an argument with a certain poster on another site who proclaimed an inside source and posted rumors. He posted several mock drafts and I noted that of the over 60 names he listed, he did not get a single player. A feat I proved mathematically is difficult to do when you consider only 300-400 players in any given year are draftable. Rule out players the Packers don't need or don't fit the system and you maybe have 200 players. That works out to about a 30% chance to pick any one player, or 99% chance for hitting one when drafting 8 guys. The 20 picks in the draft contest computes to about 67% chance to hit 1. Of course knowing what Gute looks for is becoming clearer and we can cut down the 200 draftable players. Drafting 12 guys also helps the odds. [/QUOTE]
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