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The offense must run through Jones and Dillon
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<blockquote data-quote="Sunshinepacker" data-source="post: 1001479" data-attributes="member: 9033"><p>I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers. </p><p></p><p>I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run.</p><p></p><p>Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster.</p><p></p><p>Watson - 109 targets</p><p>Toure - 21 targets</p><p>Deguara - 14 targets</p><p>Davis - 3 targets</p><p></p><p>Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Sunshinepacker, post: 1001479, member: 9033"] I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers. I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run. Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster. Watson - 109 targets Toure - 21 targets Deguara - 14 targets Davis - 3 targets Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team. [/QUOTE]
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The offense must run through Jones and Dillon
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