The End of the Golden Age of Place Kickers?

[HardRightEdge]

Edit: As noted in subsequent posts, the 2018 and prior data in this post are inaccurate.

Something odd is happening with place kickers this year. League totals according to pro-football-reference.com:

2019:

• It's a big down year so far for place kickers across the league and we have not gotten to the bad weather yet.
• 232 of 291, 79.7%; FGs are being missed more than twice as often as in the prior three years.
• 43 attempts (14.8%) have been from 50+ yards with 21 made for a 48.8% make rate. The long FG make rate is significantly down over recent history.
• 377 extra point attempts, 19 misses, 95.0% made. EPs are also being missed twice as often as in recent years. (Note: Gostkowski, Vinatieri and Fairbairn account for 10 of the 19 misses.)
• Crosby's looking pretty good in comparison to the league so far, 8-9 on FGs, 88.8%, 14-14 on EPs, but advantaged by not attempting any FGs longer than 45 yards and all makes from 42 yards or less.

2018:

• 873 of 955, 91.4%
• 151 attempts (15.8%) were from 50+ yards with 96 made for a 63.6% make rate.
• 1137 of 1166 on EPs, 97.5%

2017:

• 945 of 1027, 92.0%
• 150 attempts (14.6%) were from 50+ yards with 102 made for a 68% make rate.
• 1104 of 1130 on EPs, 97.7%

2016:

• 920 of 1009, 91.2%
• 158 attempts (15.7%) were from 50+ yards with 94 made for a 59.5% make rate.
• 1166 of 1192 on EPs, 97.8%.

League performance peaked in 2017, down slightly in 2018, and crashing in 2019 so far.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Something odd is happening with place kickers this year. League totals according to pro-football-reference.com:

2019:

• It's a big down year so far for place kickers across the league and we have not gotten to the bad weather yet.
• 232 of 291, 79.7%; FGs are being missed more than twice as often as in the prior three years.
• 43 attempts (14.8%) have been from 50+ yards with 21 made for a 48.8% make rate. The long FG make rate is significantly down over recent history.
• 377 extra point attempts, 19 misses, 95.0% made. EPs are also being missed twice as often as in recent years. (Note: Gostkowski, Vinatieri and Fairbairn account for 10 of the 19 misses.)
• Crosby's looking pretty good in comparison to the league so far, 8-9 on FGs, 88.8%, 14-14 on EPs, but advantaged by not attempting any FGs longer than 45 yards and all makes from 42 yards or less.

2018:

• 873 of 955, 91.4%
• 151 attempts (15.8%) were from 50+ yards with 96 made for a 63.6% make rate.
• 1137 of 1166 on EPs, 97.5%

2017:

• 945 of 1027, 92.0%
• 150 attempts (14.6%) were from 50+ yards with 102 made for a 68% make rate.
• 1104 of 1130 on EPs, 97.7%

2016:

• 920 of 1009, 91.2%
• 158 attempts (15.7%) were from 50+ yards with 94 made for a 59.5% make rate.
• 1166 of 1192 on EPs, 97.8%.

League performance peaked in 2017, down slightly in 2018, and crashing in 2019 so far.

I don't know where you have the numbers from for previous seasons but while the field goal percentage is down this season for whatever reason the difference isn't that drastic.

Kickers combined to make 84.7% of field goals last season, 84.3% in 2017 and 84.2% in '16.

The percentage on extra points is actually higher than in any other season since moving it back to the 15-yard line.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/kicking.htm

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't know where you have the numbers from for previous seasons but while the field goal percentage is down this season for whatever reason the difference isn't that drastic.

Kickers combined to make 84.7% of field goals last season, 84.3% in 2017 and 84.2% in '16.

The percentage on extra points is actually higher than in any other season since moving it back to the 15-yard line.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/kicking.htm

My mistake.

I used the pro-football-reference.com query function. Here's one example of how I messed up, FG % for 2018:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=FG&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

I set the query to 2018 and unchecked all plays except FGs. The sum of the attempts by down at the top = 955. I then did a browser word seach on the phrase "no good" which finds 82 instances in the list of individual kicks.

I see now that the query result list of kicks is limited to 500 so I didn't pick up all the misses.

So, fuggetabotit, other than to say the FG% this season is noticeably down but not so dramatically.

 

[Half Empty]

My mistake.

I used the pro-football-reference.com query function. Here's one example of how I messed up, FG % for 2018:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=FG&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

I set the query to 2018 and unchecked all plays except FGs. The sum of the attempts by down at the top = 955. I then did a browser word seach on the phrase "no good" which finds 82 instances in the list of individual kicks.

I see now that the query result list of kicks is limited to 500 so I didn't pick up all the misses.

So, fuggetabotit, other than to say the FG% this season is noticeably down but not so dramatically.

Just posting the bold would have saved a lot of space.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just posting the bold would have saved a lot of space.

I could have done that. If the key to success is learning from other people's mistakes as much as your own, you get two takeaways: (1) an introduction to a query function with which you may not be familiar and (2) one of its limitations.

Go forth and do your own analysis!