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The Aaron Rodgers performance thread
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 878989"><p>There's a disconnect between the verbiage at the top of the spotrac report and their table. The vebriage says $142 mil is guaranteed implying that the roster bonuses in years 4 and 5 are guaranteed. The dead cap in the chart implies those roster bonuses are not guaranteed. SI initially reported the $142 mil is guaranteed for injury which may resolve the discrepancy. Breer says the roster bonuses vest 1-2 years early. </p><p></p><p>Regardless, this is shockingly team friendly at the front end, especially with only $10 mil in signing bonus.</p><p></p><p>Besides seeing "only" $63 mil in cash over the first 3 years because of the low signing bonus Mahomes has to wait to see that money parsed out through the 2022, not up front with a big signing bonus, time value of money, all that. At the same time, the cap cost over those 3 years is only $62 mil.</p><p></p><p>While the Chiefs were pretty cap strapped going into this I can't help but think this was a cash issue, with the management argument going something like this: "We expect a huge red ink number in 2020 dipping into cash reserves as a result of empty seats. We can do it this way or wait until there is more visibility."</p><p></p><p>TV revenue cannot carry the day. Estimates vary as to how much NFL revenue derives from TV, but one report has it as somewhat more than 50%, $8 billion by one estimate that's as good as any, $250 mil per team.</p><p></p><p>When we look at Packer finances, an average revenue franchise we believe about on par with the Chiefs, and the only one for which we have numbers, the last fiscal year report showed about $480 million in revenue with about zero profit. The zero profit was atypical. The cash outlay in Rodgers signing bonus going into 2018 is the most likely cause. Typically Packer profit has been in the $40 - $70 mil range in recent years.</p><p></p><p>Now, if Packer non-TV revenue runs about $200 mil per year with most of that derived from the stadium and associated facilities, merchandise, concessions, parking that leaves a big hole going to the bottom line. Again, the Mahomes structure may be more about cash than cap.</p><p></p><p>I didn't catch that as the crux of that argument, but be that as it may, in the mean time Bakhtiari, Clark, Jones, King, Williams, Adams, Alexander, Kirsey and Wagner will be free agents, along with some others on rookie deals who still have a chance to emerge. In 2022, the FA class from 2019 will be in contract years pushing age 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings.</p><p></p><p>While the cap situation would be much better without Rodgers after 2020 the likely ways to achieve a sufeit of cap for building around Love would not come until 2022 in the release of some combination of Smith, Smith and Amos, guys pushing 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings, something that will occur regardless if there is a decline in play through age and/or injury, a la Graham but on a larger scale.</p><p></p><p>When signing those free agents in 2019 the runway to winning was 2-3 years, three if things go swimmingly, not if they aren't, but by year 4 the cap cost vs. cap savings looks daunting for those players.</p><p></p><p>The point being, knowing the quality of the roster and how much rebuilding cap would be available by 2022 even with Love installed in 2021 has very low visibility. Given the injuries, aging and declines that can occur over two season, I would expect it doesn't get more than passing glances at the cap management level. Besides, winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2020 would mean he's going nowhere; the offense sh*tting the bed in 2020, Rodgers fault or not, would accelerate his departure, cap issues be d*amned.</p><p></p><p>More than cap savings, the key is stacking drafts to replace high priced players with cheaper option on rookie deals. Early returns show Gutekunst's success so far is pretty middling.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 878989"] There's a disconnect between the verbiage at the top of the spotrac report and their table. The vebriage says $142 mil is guaranteed implying that the roster bonuses in years 4 and 5 are guaranteed. The dead cap in the chart implies those roster bonuses are not guaranteed. SI initially reported the $142 mil is guaranteed for injury which may resolve the discrepancy. Breer says the roster bonuses vest 1-2 years early. Regardless, this is shockingly team friendly at the front end, especially with only $10 mil in signing bonus. Besides seeing "only" $63 mil in cash over the first 3 years because of the low signing bonus Mahomes has to wait to see that money parsed out through the 2022, not up front with a big signing bonus, time value of money, all that. At the same time, the cap cost over those 3 years is only $62 mil. While the Chiefs were pretty cap strapped going into this I can't help but think this was a cash issue, with the management argument going something like this: "We expect a huge red ink number in 2020 dipping into cash reserves as a result of empty seats. We can do it this way or wait until there is more visibility." TV revenue cannot carry the day. Estimates vary as to how much NFL revenue derives from TV, but one report has it as somewhat more than 50%, $8 billion by one estimate that's as good as any, $250 mil per team. When we look at Packer finances, an average revenue franchise we believe about on par with the Chiefs, and the only one for which we have numbers, the last fiscal year report showed about $480 million in revenue with about zero profit. The zero profit was atypical. The cash outlay in Rodgers signing bonus going into 2018 is the most likely cause. Typically Packer profit has been in the $40 - $70 mil range in recent years. Now, if Packer non-TV revenue runs about $200 mil per year with most of that derived from the stadium and associated facilities, merchandise, concessions, parking that leaves a big hole going to the bottom line. Again, the Mahomes structure may be more about cash than cap. I didn't catch that as the crux of that argument, but be that as it may, in the mean time Bakhtiari, Clark, Jones, King, Williams, Adams, Alexander, Kirsey and Wagner will be free agents, along with some others on rookie deals who still have a chance to emerge. In 2022, the FA class from 2019 will be in contract years pushing age 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings. While the cap situation would be much better without Rodgers after 2020 the likely ways to achieve a sufeit of cap for building around Love would not come until 2022 in the release of some combination of Smith, Smith and Amos, guys pushing 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings, something that will occur regardless if there is a decline in play through age and/or injury, a la Graham but on a larger scale. When signing those free agents in 2019 the runway to winning was 2-3 years, three if things go swimmingly, not if they aren't, but by year 4 the cap cost vs. cap savings looks daunting for those players. The point being, knowing the quality of the roster and how much rebuilding cap would be available by 2022 even with Love installed in 2021 has very low visibility. Given the injuries, aging and declines that can occur over two season, I would expect it doesn't get more than passing glances at the cap management level. Besides, winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2020 would mean he's going nowhere; the offense sh*tting the bed in 2020, Rodgers fault or not, would accelerate his departure, cap issues be d*amned. More than cap savings, the key is stacking drafts to replace high priced players with cheaper option on rookie deals. Early returns show Gutekunst's success so far is pretty middling. [/QUOTE]
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