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The Aaron Rodgers performance thread
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 870917"><p>I put this to the test, looking at the 38 NFL players with at least 100 targets last season, adjusted for how frequently teams pass and adjusting for receiver games played. The data is for regular season only.</p><p></p><p>For example, the Packers threw 573 times (including 4 Boyle tosses), Adams played 12 games and had 127 targets.</p><p></p><p>573 / 16 x 12 = 430 prorated passes over 12 games. 127/430 = Adams drawing 29.6% of targets.</p><p></p><p>I've applied this formula to the other 37 players, with some comparisons to follow. Adams is unique in having missed as many as 4 games among those 38 players. Two missed 3 games (Evan and Kirk). 22 played all 16 games.</p><p></p><p>Instead of the prorated passes, we can look at the passes thrown and Adams targets in his actual games played. The Packers threw just slighly more in those 12 games with Adams target % dropping slightly:</p><p></p><p>127 targets / 436 passes = Adams drawing 29.1% of targets.</p><p></p><p>Similar adjustments for the other 37 players would be simply too much work, but with so few games missed among those other players the differences would likely be negligible compared to the prorated games methond. So, here are the top 20 "most favored receivers" based on a percentage of team targets adjusted for games played:</p><p></p><p>31.8 Michael Thomas</p><p>30.0 DeAndre Hopkins</p><p>29.1 Davante Adams</p><p>26.6 Allen Robinson</p><p>25.6 Jarvis Landry</p><p>25.6 George Kittle</p><p>25.0 Keenan Allen</p><p>24.7 Julian Eddelman</p><p>24.7 Odell Beckham, Jr.</p><p>24.6 Courtland Sutton</p><p>24.5 Julio Jones</p><p>24.0 Tyler Boyd</p><p>23.9 John Brown</p><p>23.8 Christian Kirk</p><p>23.6 Travis Kelce</p><p>23.5 Zach Ertz</p><p>23.5 Robert Woods</p><p>23.4 Jamison Crowder</p><p>23.1 Mike Evans</p><p>22.7 D.J. Moore</p><p></p><p>So, Adams was the 3rd. "most favored receiver" in the league. But how much difference is that really in Adams drawing 4.5% more team targets than 10th. ranked Sutton or 6.4% more team targets than 20th. ranked D.J. Moore?</p><p></p><p>The league threw 17,853 passes last season, 558 per team on average, 35 per team per game on average. The Packers threw 36 times per game.</p><p></p><p>4.5% of 35 passes is 1.6 targets per game. 6.4% of 35 passes is 2.3 targets per game.</p><p></p><p>Does Adams deserve those additional targets, 1.6 more per game than Sutton or 2.3 mor than Moore? It is not unreasonable to think so. There isn't much evidence to support the "Adams tunnel vision" argument.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 870917"] I put this to the test, looking at the 38 NFL players with at least 100 targets last season, adjusted for how frequently teams pass and adjusting for receiver games played. The data is for regular season only. For example, the Packers threw 573 times (including 4 Boyle tosses), Adams played 12 games and had 127 targets. 573 / 16 x 12 = 430 prorated passes over 12 games. 127/430 = Adams drawing 29.6% of targets. I've applied this formula to the other 37 players, with some comparisons to follow. Adams is unique in having missed as many as 4 games among those 38 players. Two missed 3 games (Evan and Kirk). 22 played all 16 games. Instead of the prorated passes, we can look at the passes thrown and Adams targets in his actual games played. The Packers threw just slighly more in those 12 games with Adams target % dropping slightly: 127 targets / 436 passes = Adams drawing 29.1% of targets. Similar adjustments for the other 37 players would be simply too much work, but with so few games missed among those other players the differences would likely be negligible compared to the prorated games methond. So, here are the top 20 "most favored receivers" based on a percentage of team targets adjusted for games played: 31.8 Michael Thomas 30.0 DeAndre Hopkins 29.1 Davante Adams 26.6 Allen Robinson 25.6 Jarvis Landry 25.6 George Kittle 25.0 Keenan Allen 24.7 Julian Eddelman 24.7 Odell Beckham, Jr. 24.6 Courtland Sutton 24.5 Julio Jones 24.0 Tyler Boyd 23.9 John Brown 23.8 Christian Kirk 23.6 Travis Kelce 23.5 Zach Ertz 23.5 Robert Woods 23.4 Jamison Crowder 23.1 Mike Evans 22.7 D.J. Moore So, Adams was the 3rd. "most favored receiver" in the league. But how much difference is that really in Adams drawing 4.5% more team targets than 10th. ranked Sutton or 6.4% more team targets than 20th. ranked D.J. Moore? The league threw 17,853 passes last season, 558 per team on average, 35 per team per game on average. The Packers threw 36 times per game. 4.5% of 35 passes is 1.6 targets per game. 6.4% of 35 passes is 2.3 targets per game. Does Adams deserve those additional targets, 1.6 more per game than Sutton or 2.3 mor than Moore? It is not unreasonable to think so. There isn't much evidence to support the "Adams tunnel vision" argument. [/QUOTE]
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