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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 979154" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>So for those who find it interesting/care, FiveThirtyEight currently puts our odds of making the playoffs at about 12%. That's up from ~5% before beating Dallas. A decent increase, but of course still a long way to go. Even if we were to win our next three in a row, it would only put us right around 50% to make, before considering anyone else's results.</p><p></p><p>With Minnesota at 8-1 our odds of catching them to win the division are virtually nonexistent. Even if we win our next three and they lose all three, they would still be favored at roughly 75% to win the division and 25% for us. So practically speaking we are hoping for a wild card spot. As it stands we are the #9 seed, with Giants at 5, Cowboys at 6, 49ers at 7, and Commanders at 8. Our absolute best-case scenario over the next three weeks would involve us winning all three of our games and Cowboys, 49ers, and Commanders losing all three of theirs. That would put us at approximately 80% to make the playoffs and I think would move us up to the 6 seed. </p><p></p><p>Of course that particular combination is exceedingly unlikely, but I guess it's possible.</p><p></p><p>With that in mind however, if we go 2-1 in our next three we would be looking at just about 50% odds to make playoffs. If we go 1-2, we're back down to ~5%, and if we were to go 0-3 it officially be time to pack it up for the year. 0-3 would see us at a less than 1% chance to make the playoffs in our best-case scenario and depending on how other teams' results fell might be enough to see us eliminated entirely. Technically I don't think we can be mathematically eliminated in the next three weeks, but could get to a less than 0.1% chance to make playoffs, so it is what it is. </p><p></p><p>Anyways all that to say that it seems to me like we're going to need to take two wins from the next three weeks at minimum to have much of any realistic shot at things. Chicago should be doable but the other two will be tricky. On current odds Tennessee is favored at -2.5 (538 prediction puts it at 58% Tenn win, 42% GB), Eagles at -7 (73% Eagles win, 27% GB), and actually Chicago very very slightly favored (PK, with 538 giving them the edge 51% to 49%).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 979154, member: 17987"] So for those who find it interesting/care, FiveThirtyEight currently puts our odds of making the playoffs at about 12%. That's up from ~5% before beating Dallas. A decent increase, but of course still a long way to go. Even if we were to win our next three in a row, it would only put us right around 50% to make, before considering anyone else's results. With Minnesota at 8-1 our odds of catching them to win the division are virtually nonexistent. Even if we win our next three and they lose all three, they would still be favored at roughly 75% to win the division and 25% for us. So practically speaking we are hoping for a wild card spot. As it stands we are the #9 seed, with Giants at 5, Cowboys at 6, 49ers at 7, and Commanders at 8. Our absolute best-case scenario over the next three weeks would involve us winning all three of our games and Cowboys, 49ers, and Commanders losing all three of theirs. That would put us at approximately 80% to make the playoffs and I think would move us up to the 6 seed. Of course that particular combination is exceedingly unlikely, but I guess it's possible. With that in mind however, if we go 2-1 in our next three we would be looking at just about 50% odds to make playoffs. If we go 1-2, we're back down to ~5%, and if we were to go 0-3 it officially be time to pack it up for the year. 0-3 would see us at a less than 1% chance to make the playoffs in our best-case scenario and depending on how other teams' results fell might be enough to see us eliminated entirely. Technically I don't think we can be mathematically eliminated in the next three weeks, but could get to a less than 0.1% chance to make playoffs, so it is what it is. Anyways all that to say that it seems to me like we're going to need to take two wins from the next three weeks at minimum to have much of any realistic shot at things. Chicago should be doable but the other two will be tricky. On current odds Tennessee is favored at -2.5 (538 prediction puts it at 58% Tenn win, 42% GB), Eagles at -7 (73% Eagles win, 27% GB), and actually Chicago very very slightly favored (PK, with 538 giving them the edge 51% to 49%). [/QUOTE]
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