Second half career decline, Rodgers and Favre

[red4tribe]

I think as well all know, Brett Favre in the second half of his career, while good, was never quite as great as he was in the 90s. As we're watching the second half of Rodgers' career progress, it seems we might be seeing a similar pattern develop. I am not putting all of the blame on Rodgers- there are a lot of other factors at play- but it seems to me that Rodgers just isn't quite as dominant as he was through the 2014 season. I'm not a huge believer in "turning points" but I think you can look back to the loss against Denver in 2015 (when the Pack was 6-0) as an important moment. With the exception of the win streak to end the 2016 season, Rodgers and the Packers just haven't been the same since.

Here are some numbers:

Favre
1992-1998
74-35 (67.8 winning %) (first 109 starts)
61.7% Cmp
7.1 Y/A
213 TDs
116 INTs
89.4 Rating

1999-2010
112-77 (59.2 winning %)
62.1% Cmp
7.0 Y/A
295 TDs
218 INTs
84.3 Rating

Rodgers
2008- Week 6 2015
76-33 (69.7 winning %) (first 109 starts)
66.0% Cmp
8.27 Y/A
240 TDs
58 INTs
107.0 Rating

Week 8 2015-Present
21-19-1 (51.2 winning %)
62.3% Cmp
7.0 Y/A
87 TDs
20 INTs
96.5 Rating

Thoughts?

 

[longtimefan]

Add in playoff games for same time frame

 

[Mondio]

or compare Favre's last 2-3 seasons here compared to his mid-late 90's run. He fell off and came right back. Do anything long enough you're bound to hit some rough patches. I don't think Rodgers is done, unless he can never get healthy again. But that's different.

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

All I want is for Rodgers to learn to play in the pocket and for the O-line to allow him to be there and for the coach to call the quick pass plays to accommodate the former. Is that too much to ask?

 

[Title Town USA]

True. It really isn't that crazy that Brady is still playing now at 41. All he does is stand there and throw 5 yard passes to wide open receivers. And then everyone goes crazy for him. LOL

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

True. It really isn't that crazy that Brady is still playing now at 41. All he does is stand there and throw 5 yard passes to wide open receivers. And then everyone goes crazy for him. LOL

That's all it takes haha! Every week I hope this is what we will start to do. I was so jealous of Brees hitting Kumara in the checkdown against the Rams last week over and over. Granted Kumara is a beast. But still. Then they have to cover Kumara better in the checkdown and what happens???? Thomas goes off for over 200 yards due to the forced adjustment.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Stats in a bubble miss out on at least 2 important things to draw too many conclusions.

1. Who were the players around said player?
2. Injuries of the player himself?

I'm sure there are other factors, luck, schedule, personal life, other players injured, etc. but Rodgers opening day injury has not done his stats any good this season. Nor has a weak 3-5 years of drafts, that were highly focused on the defense.

The North Division was a pretty weak one up until Minnesota became relevant and now maybe the Bears. That gave the Packers and Rodgers 6 games a year of facing pretty mediocre teams. Brady has been afforded the same luxury with the Bills, Jets and Dolphins.

So while Rodgers abilities may seem like they have declined, I would put it more on circumstances of his injury, the team around him and just not being as good as the best teams in the NFC. A 100% healthy Rodgers with a better team surrounding him, could be a SB contender.

 

[sschind]

True. It really isn't that crazy that Brady is still playing now at 41. All he does is stand there and throw 5 yard passes to wide open receivers. And then everyone goes crazy for him. LOL

5 SB rings will do that.

 

[PackAttack12]

This again?

The same exact things were being insinuated throughout the end of the 2015 season and early on in the 2016 season. And all he did was play the greatest quarterback stretch I've ever seen played at the end of that season.

So admittedly, 2015 wasn't a great year, particularly post-Denver. And 2016 wasn't great through the first several games of the year. But let's try to be a little fair about the numbers you laid out there. It's easy to look at "post 2015" and say that those numbers were far worse than 2008-early 2015.

But this is what I would prefer to do. Just going by the last 9 games of the 2016 season (including the playoffs):

115.48 passer rating
67.68 completion percentage
24-2 touchdown/interception ratio
8-1 record

Now let's look at the start of the 2017 season prior to the collarbone injury:

106.14 passer rating
66.66% completion percentage
13-3 touchdown/interception ratio
4-1 record

Not going to include the Minnesota game where he didn't even finish a quarter and not going to include the 1st game back after the collarbone injury. That's just nonsensical.

So collectively, during this "decline" period, we're looking at a completion percentage that is higher than his career average, we're looking at a touchdown/interception ratio that is higher than his career average, we're looking at a passer rating that is higher than his career average, and we're looking at a winning percentage that is higher than his career average.

This is during the decline period.

So let's sum up where we're at right now.....

Again, week 7 of 2015 until week 10 of 2016 was bad, no doubt. He went through a rough spell that just about every single quarterback in the history of the National Football League has went through. So after that point, up until the start of the 2018 season, he put up numbers better than his career averages.

Now let's get to 2018. His favorite target maybe of all time is gone (Jordy). The #2 and #3 receivers have been in and out and banged up for much of the season (Cobb, Allison), he's forced to throw to rookies who aren't on the same page as he is. THEN, not only that, he's dealing with a knee injury that would keep most quarterbacks sidelined. His mobility, which is arguably his greatest asset as a quarterback, is compromised, and because of that he cannot escape the pocket and make the plays down the field. So instead, those situations result in an awkward throw away because he cannot scramble. That's a huge factor in the completion percentage.

Add all of that up, and for the 2018 season, the man is still 15 touchdowns to 1 interception with a passer rating of 98.9 which would be 3rd all time, and a completion percentage that is above 60 even with the compromised mobility and integrating of new parts.

And this is what you would consider "decline"?

My goodness. This is just getting exhausting. I would argue the only "decline" I'm seeing is in some of the rationale of packer forum members who are reaching for anything to explain why the Packers currently have a losing record.

/rant over.

 

[Title Town USA]

5 SB rings will do that.

The point is those 5 Super Bowl Rings are really about being smart. Amazing talent? Honestly I don't see it. That doesn't take anything away from what he's done - the rings count the same. I see it more of a product of the Patriots system/coaching. Brady gets hurt, and they keep winning.

 

[rmontro]

True. It really isn't that crazy that Brady is still playing now at 41. All he does is stand there and throw 5 yard passes to wide open receivers. And then everyone goes crazy for him. LOL

If it was that easy, everybody would do it. Like you say, those five Super Bowl rings are about being smart. I don't see many people saying Brady is more talented or more athletic than Rodgers (maybe Skip Bayless, but that would be it). But Brady gets universally praised for his intelligence, preparation, pre-snap awareness, situational play, and execution when the game is on the line. That's nothing to sneeze at, and the proof is in the results.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

If it was that easy, everybody would do it. Like you say, those five Super Bowl rings are about being smart. I don't see many people saying Brady is more talented or more athletic than Rodgers (maybe Skip Bayless, but that would be it). But Brady gets universally praised for his intelligence, preparation, pre-snap awareness, situational play, and execution when the game is on the line. That's nothing to sneeze at, and the proof is in the results.

All I get out of this is "system QB". I watched a breakdown of his play last week, nobody was within 5 yards of the receivers on most plays, and many of them were dump offs. Which is why it is maddening that we stick with such a poor offensive coach and play caller. Imagine how good he could be if he weren't having to overcome the coaching.

 

[906Fan]

Although it might be decline time, didn’t Favres best statistical season come at the end of his career with the vikes?

 

[rmontro]

All I get out of this is "system QB". I watched a breakdown of his play last week, nobody was within 5 yards of the receivers on most plays, and many of them were dump offs. Which is why it is maddening that we stick with such a poor offensive coach and play caller. Imagine how good he could be if he weren't having to overcome the coaching.

You can call Brady a system QB if you want, but how many other system QBs have five rings?

I agree that some of our play calling and offensive schemes are frustrating to watch.
Remember when McCarthy used to put five wide receivers on the line and no one could cover them all? That was cutting edge then, and now it seems like he has fallen behind. Instead of freeing up receivers by scheme, he just says they have to win their individual battles and end of discussion.

Although it might be decline time, didn’t Favres best statistical season come at the end of his career with the vikes?

That sounds right. I always thought Favre needed a good coach to excel. He needed somebody like Holmgren to get on him and keep him from being too reckless, but Holmgren left fairly early in his career. Rodgers has always had the benefit of McCarthy, who I think is a good coach (even though he may be losing his effectiveness with the team).

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

I was so jealous of Brees hitting Kumara in the checkdown against the Rams last week over and over. Granted Kumara is a beast. But still. Then they have to cover Kumara better in the checkdown and what happens???? Thomas goes off for over 200 yards due to the forced adjustment.

I got to say here I watched that Ram and Saints game last weekend and honestly that was like watching two power-house teams in a Super Bowl.
What a treat that game was to watch especially when both defenses score every time they got the ball.
I think it was almost the 3rd. quarter before there was a kicking team out there.

 

[OldSchool101]

every year Rodgers doesn’t have a 120% passer rating someone somewhere claims he’s suddenly in a rapid decline.
I’m not sure what he has to do to prove himself but he’s been pretty consistent from year to year and his arm looks pretty good to me.

Maybe the company Aaron keeps these days is substandard compared to the weapons he’s been given in the past?. Let’s give Aaron 12 of the next 15 first and second day draft picks along with 8 straight 1st round picks (like we did for our D) and then let’s take a look and see how he fares.

 

[ls1bob]

All I want is for Rodgers to learn to play in the pocket and for the O-line to allow him to be there and for the coach to call the quick pass plays to accommodate the former. Is that too much to ask?

The year we made it to the NFCCG against the seahawks,Aaron tore his calf muscle against the Saints and he lost a lot of mobility and threw a LOT from the pocket after that. We had a great run up until the full team meltdown in the Championship game. He can do it and be successful. But then again,maybe we don't have the offensive line to make it happen now.

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

I got to say here I watched that Ram and Saints game last weekend and honestly that was like watching two power-house teams in a Super Bowl.
What a treat that game was to watch especially when both defenses score every time they got the ball.
I think it was almost the 3rd. quarter before there was a kicking team out there.

I have not enjoyed the super bowl the past few years. Mostly cause I am sick of seeing the Pats in it. I wish that game could be the super bowl. Even as a Packer fan, I would be all in!

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

The year we made it to the NFCCG against the seahawks,Aaron tore his calf muscle against the Saints and he lost a lot of mobility and threw a LOT from the pocket after that. We had a great run up until the full team meltdown in the Championship game. He can do it and be successful. But then again,maybe we don't have the offensive line to make it happen now.

I agree. The O-line really could help him out a bit more...

 

[rmontro]

But then again,maybe we don't have the offensive line to make it happen now.

The offensive line confuses me. You always hear we have one of the best offensive lines in the league, on this board and elsewhere. At least for pass protecting.
But you also hear a lot of complaints about it too.
I think someone here explained that the starters are top notch, but the backups are trash, so once you get an injury or two there are problems.

 

[Dblbogey]

or compare Favre's last 2-3 seasons here compared to his mid-late 90's run. He fell off and came right back. Do anything long enough you're bound to hit some rough patches. I don't think Rodgers is done, unless he can never get healthy again. But that's different.

Favre's decline seemed to coincide with Holmgren's departure. Holmgren kept Favre's craziness reined in, then along came Mike Sherman.

 

[OldSchool101]

Favre's decline seemed to coincide with Holmgren's departure. Holmgren kept Favre's craziness reined in, then along came Mike Sherman.

Well, you know what they say... Sherman tanked

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With the exception of the win streak to end the 2016 season, Rodgers and the Week 8 2015-Present
21-19-1 (51.2 winning %)

In my opinion it doesn't make any sense to not include the winning streak at the end of the 2016 season. Why stop there??? If you ignore all the Packers wins since the start of 2011 the team is 0-32-1 with Rodgers starting in the regular season

All I want is for Rodgers to learn to play in the pocket and for the O-line to allow him to be there and for the coach to call the quick pass plays to accommodate the former. Is that too much to ask?

Rodgers extending plays is a huge part of his success. As long as he's mobile enough to make it work there's no reason to refrain from using it.

The year we made it to the NFCCG against the seahawks,Aaron tore his calf muscle against the Saints and he lost a lot of mobility and threw a LOT from the pocket after that. We had a great run up until the full team meltdown in the Championship game. He can do it and be successful. But then again,maybe we don't have the offensive line to make it happen now.

I believe that Rodgers is significantly more hampered by the knee injury than any of the calf strains he suffered during his career.

Favre's decline seemed to coincide with Holmgren's departure. Holmgren kept Favre's craziness reined in, then along came Mike Sherman.

Favre nicely rebounded once McCarthy took over as the Packers head coach though.