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Salary cap thread 2016
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 653431"><p>I think there's an inclination to forget that certain Packer free agents need to be resigned or replaced.</p><p></p><p>Let's start with $14.5 - $15.5 mil cap space, practically speaking, as outlined in post #38 in this thread. That number could go up if the actual cap number is higher than $155 mil. However, that cannot be assumed. From a 2016-to-2017 carryover perspective, that $14.5 - $15.5 mil figure could go up from a practical standpoint if the 2016 camp/season is relatively injury free. That's a poor assumption as well.</p><p></p><p>Conventional wisdom has focused on ILB and TE. Lets consider some other needs:</p><p></p><p>- OLB: Neal and Perry are FAs. Even with Matthews moving back outside, the bench is left to Datone Jones and just some guys, assuming Jones is not just a guy on his own. Peppers is year-to-year and a FA after 2016. Jones is a FA after 2016. Unless you get a Miller/Mack at the top of the first round, edge rushers take a year or two of seasoning to get to 3-down status. This critical position is highly vulnerable for 2017.</p><p></p><p>- 2016 OL depth/2017 starters: backup OT is just guys; Sitton, Lang and Bakhtiari are FAs after 2016; they cannot all be re-signed and the bench is bare. </p><p></p><p>- RB: Starks is a FA with nobody particularly promising on the bench. Lacy is a FA in 2017, with some question as to whether he can regain his speed back to at least 4.6. There is a clear need here.</p><p></p><p>- PK: Crosby is a FA.</p><p></p><p>- P: Masthay needs to be replaced</p><p></p><p>- FB: Kuhn is one of those guys who's value exceeds his cap cost. That's a 1/2 mil over a minimum rookie replacement. The small amounts add up.</p><p></p><p>- D-Line: Even with Guion in the fold, and a presumptive staring front of Guion-Pennel-Daniels, there's no depth for rotation beyond a gamble on Ringo. Really, it's best to think of the D-Line as requiring 4 "starters" since you don't want these guys going over 65% snap counts if you can help it. Sign Raji eating into the cap, buy a guy, or draft a guy limiting options at other positions. </p><p></p><p>Besides the 3 starting OLs, Peppers and Datone Jones, the 2017 FA class includes Lacy and Hyde. If Barrington returns as a starting ILB, then he'll need to be paid or replaced. If Pennel is the presumptive NT for 2016 and if he comports himself well, which I expect, he'll be due more than the minimum for a restricted FA.</p><p></p><p>All of these needs, plus whatever else crops up in the way of injury and age decline, cannot reasonably be addressed in two drafts.</p><p></p><p>Somehow dumping a bunch of cap space on an ILB who is not a bona fide All-Pro game-changer doesn't add up. Same for the TE position.</p><p></p><p>Even a few selective re-signings at relatively modest $...lets say Starks, Neal, Crosby...and a Lang extension at some time during the season, that doesn't leave much cap carryover into the 2017 season with several core players that need to be paid or replaced.</p><p></p><p>Frankly, if Barrington's prognosis is good which I cannot speak to, I'd not be surprised if ILB cap/draft capital is limited to a FA or mid-round pick slated to compete, not start. The Packer offense is WR-centric, and incredibly prolific with the likes of Quarless at TE, I would not be surprised if Thompson banked on his expensive (in terms of cap and draft capital) WR crew bouncing back and limiting his TE expenditure to the 3rd. round or lower.</p><p></p><p>A draft focusing on O-Line, D-Line and OLB, with ILB and TE in the mid-to-low rounds.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 653431"] I think there's an inclination to forget that certain Packer free agents need to be resigned or replaced. Let's start with $14.5 - $15.5 mil cap space, practically speaking, as outlined in post #38 in this thread. That number could go up if the actual cap number is higher than $155 mil. However, that cannot be assumed. From a 2016-to-2017 carryover perspective, that $14.5 - $15.5 mil figure could go up from a practical standpoint if the 2016 camp/season is relatively injury free. That's a poor assumption as well. Conventional wisdom has focused on ILB and TE. Lets consider some other needs: - OLB: Neal and Perry are FAs. Even with Matthews moving back outside, the bench is left to Datone Jones and just some guys, assuming Jones is not just a guy on his own. Peppers is year-to-year and a FA after 2016. Jones is a FA after 2016. Unless you get a Miller/Mack at the top of the first round, edge rushers take a year or two of seasoning to get to 3-down status. This critical position is highly vulnerable for 2017. - 2016 OL depth/2017 starters: backup OT is just guys; Sitton, Lang and Bakhtiari are FAs after 2016; they cannot all be re-signed and the bench is bare. - RB: Starks is a FA with nobody particularly promising on the bench. Lacy is a FA in 2017, with some question as to whether he can regain his speed back to at least 4.6. There is a clear need here. - PK: Crosby is a FA. - P: Masthay needs to be replaced - FB: Kuhn is one of those guys who's value exceeds his cap cost. That's a 1/2 mil over a minimum rookie replacement. The small amounts add up. - D-Line: Even with Guion in the fold, and a presumptive staring front of Guion-Pennel-Daniels, there's no depth for rotation beyond a gamble on Ringo. Really, it's best to think of the D-Line as requiring 4 "starters" since you don't want these guys going over 65% snap counts if you can help it. Sign Raji eating into the cap, buy a guy, or draft a guy limiting options at other positions. Besides the 3 starting OLs, Peppers and Datone Jones, the 2017 FA class includes Lacy and Hyde. If Barrington returns as a starting ILB, then he'll need to be paid or replaced. If Pennel is the presumptive NT for 2016 and if he comports himself well, which I expect, he'll be due more than the minimum for a restricted FA. All of these needs, plus whatever else crops up in the way of injury and age decline, cannot reasonably be addressed in two drafts. Somehow dumping a bunch of cap space on an ILB who is not a bona fide All-Pro game-changer doesn't add up. Same for the TE position. Even a few selective re-signings at relatively modest $...lets say Starks, Neal, Crosby...and a Lang extension at some time during the season, that doesn't leave much cap carryover into the 2017 season with several core players that need to be paid or replaced. Frankly, if Barrington's prognosis is good which I cannot speak to, I'd not be surprised if ILB cap/draft capital is limited to a FA or mid-round pick slated to compete, not start. The Packer offense is WR-centric, and incredibly prolific with the likes of Quarless at TE, I would not be surprised if Thompson banked on his expensive (in terms of cap and draft capital) WR crew bouncing back and limiting his TE expenditure to the 3rd. round or lower. A draft focusing on O-Line, D-Line and OLB, with ILB and TE in the mid-to-low rounds. [/QUOTE]
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