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Projecting 2015 season
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 611927"><p>I don't think that's been ignored. It's the presumptive depth chart at this point.</p><p></p><p>If Randall can't work his way into a respectable number of snaps as the season goes along, if not a starting position as was the case with Dix last season, that will be a disappointment.</p><p></p><p>What might be overlooked is what happens in the event of injury. The Packers play nickel about 2/3 of the time. That represents 80 DB "starts". What's a minimum reasonable number of lost starts in that group in the risk avoidance calculus? 6 perhaps? More? What happens if a guy is lost for the season?</p><p></p><p>Let's assume the nickel starters are Shields-Hayward-Hyde-Burnett-Dix in week 1.</p><p></p><p>If Burnett goes down, Hyde would be the logical candidate for SS with Richardson getting some snaps when a box safety is called for. Then who takes over nickel for the bulk of the snaps when Hyde isn't in there? There are a couple of possibilities. Hayward might move to nickel with Randall or Rollins outside depending on who's up to the task. Or Hayward stays where he is and Rollins takes over nickel. In this scenario, the two rookies are in direct or indirect competition for snaps.</p><p></p><p>If Dix were to go down, who goes to FS? Randall would be the logical choice since that's his natural position without getting into backfield musical chairs. If he's not up to the task, then Hyde can go to FS with Rollins at nickel, or the musical chairs commence with Hyde going to FS, Hayward swings to nickel and Randall or Rollins go outside. Again, the rookies are in competition.</p><p></p><p>If Shields or Hayward goes down, Randall and Rollins are in direct competition for the outside spot.</p><p></p><p>If Hyde goes down, Rollins would be the logical choice at nickel if he's up to it. Otherwise, Hayward goes to nickel and Randall takes over outside.</p><p></p><p>In these scenarios there are some platoon possibilities. In the past we saw Woodson outside in base and inside in nickel, and that worked swimmingly for awhile. After Woodson departed, there was preseason talk of using Williams in the same way, but that ended up being used sparingly and then largely dropped. An injury to a safety might set up that scenario with Hayward outside in base, then moving inside in nickel and either Randall or Rollins manning the perimeter.</p><p></p><p>These injury scenarios go some ways in clarifying Thompson's statement that the new guys offer scheme flexibility which goes to the point that, "This is not fun and games...life happens, injuries happen."</p><p></p><p>That there are two high picks represents bet-hedging and sets up direct and indirect competition between them...having two guys competing doubles the odds of having a guy step up successfully.</p><p></p><p>Hayward being a free agent after 2015 provides a further kicker.</p><p></p><p>There's a chance Mr. Goodson will have something to say about all this. But given his preseason performance last year and the fact Thompson drafted high for two guys, you'd have to conclude he's not viewed all that favorably and would be a long shot in making a meaningful contribution.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 611927"] I don't think that's been ignored. It's the presumptive depth chart at this point. If Randall can't work his way into a respectable number of snaps as the season goes along, if not a starting position as was the case with Dix last season, that will be a disappointment. What might be overlooked is what happens in the event of injury. The Packers play nickel about 2/3 of the time. That represents 80 DB "starts". What's a minimum reasonable number of lost starts in that group in the risk avoidance calculus? 6 perhaps? More? What happens if a guy is lost for the season? Let's assume the nickel starters are Shields-Hayward-Hyde-Burnett-Dix in week 1. If Burnett goes down, Hyde would be the logical candidate for SS with Richardson getting some snaps when a box safety is called for. Then who takes over nickel for the bulk of the snaps when Hyde isn't in there? There are a couple of possibilities. Hayward might move to nickel with Randall or Rollins outside depending on who's up to the task. Or Hayward stays where he is and Rollins takes over nickel. In this scenario, the two rookies are in direct or indirect competition for snaps. If Dix were to go down, who goes to FS? Randall would be the logical choice since that's his natural position without getting into backfield musical chairs. If he's not up to the task, then Hyde can go to FS with Rollins at nickel, or the musical chairs commence with Hyde going to FS, Hayward swings to nickel and Randall or Rollins go outside. Again, the rookies are in competition. If Shields or Hayward goes down, Randall and Rollins are in direct competition for the outside spot. If Hyde goes down, Rollins would be the logical choice at nickel if he's up to it. Otherwise, Hayward goes to nickel and Randall takes over outside. In these scenarios there are some platoon possibilities. In the past we saw Woodson outside in base and inside in nickel, and that worked swimmingly for awhile. After Woodson departed, there was preseason talk of using Williams in the same way, but that ended up being used sparingly and then largely dropped. An injury to a safety might set up that scenario with Hayward outside in base, then moving inside in nickel and either Randall or Rollins manning the perimeter. These injury scenarios go some ways in clarifying Thompson's statement that the new guys offer scheme flexibility which goes to the point that, "This is not fun and games...life happens, injuries happen." That there are two high picks represents bet-hedging and sets up direct and indirect competition between them...having two guys competing doubles the odds of having a guy step up successfully. Hayward being a free agent after 2015 provides a further kicker. There's a chance Mr. Goodson will have something to say about all this. But given his preseason performance last year and the fact Thompson drafted high for two guys, you'd have to conclude he's not viewed all that favorably and would be a long shot in making a meaningful contribution. [/QUOTE]
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