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Message: <blockquote data-quote="paulska" data-source="post: 611806" data-attributes="member: 557">HRE's post about whether the mean refers to the league or Packer mean is a great example of how reading numbers is both an art and difficult to master form of critical thinking.PFF does stress a few stats as of greater significance, and I would have to say that over time their weighting of passer rating differential over other more traditional stats tends to prove a far more reliable predictor of team success. In our case, we tend to do pretty well along this line because our rating is going to be celestial with ARod, and we do enough things well within our defensive scheme to force other QBs to far lesser heights.That said, our achilles has been the run game- whether that's Kaepernick scorching us or falling apart against Marshawn, there are critical times in the season where opponents can mitigate our top flight QB play by dominating other facets of the game.My biggest concerns for this season are around run defense- if we can't do it at a top 15 level, we're in trouble again- and how we will fair on the passer rating differential while we integrate a new outside corner. There's talent there, but it's not proven, and that's one position where the learning process can mean a huge difference in the game if the process involves learning from costly mistakes fairly regularly on the way to competence.There's a lot of versatility in the defensive backfield now, but Woodson was a monster in our secondary because there were stable performers on the outside, and generally one effective safety back there. We've got one solid safety (Burnett), one solid corner (Shields) and the rest of the secondary is a question mark, even though HHCD is an up and coming talent, and it's hopeful one of the newly minted hybrid Rollins/Randall can perform outside.Predicting our season success to me is more about how the gaps and transitions we have on defense get coached and perform. I like Joe Whitt to get the secondary playing effectively. I don't know about our Dline and LB play. Because our division has had so much turmoil, I can see us winning it at 10-6 or 11-5, but whether we do anything with that? I don't have a feel for that, no matter what numbers or trends you toss out given the question marks for our roster...</blockquote>

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