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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 874200" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>I posted a little bit about this elsewhere, but I think it deserves fuller explanation and discussion.</p><p></p><p>The absence of a WR in the draft caught us all completely off guard. One thing I had not considered before the draft is how the Packers intend to play, formationally, on offense.</p><p></p><p>Disclaimer before I share the data and the projection, this is not a defense of the Packers not picking a WR. It's merely an analysis of what happened in terms of offensive formation in LaFleur's first season, and what may happen moving forward.</p><p></p><p>Here was the shift in LaFleur's first season:</p><p></p><p><strong>11 Personnel (3 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2018: 72%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2019: 53%</li> </ul><p><strong>12/21 Personnel (2 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2018: 21%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2019: 40%</li> </ul><p><strong>22/13 Personnel (1 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2018: 5%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2019: 7%</li> </ul><p>So in year one as the HC/OC, the offense went from 3+ wide receivers 72% of the time to 2 or fewer wide receivers 47% of the time.</p><p></p><p>Given that LaFleur is off of the Shanahan tree and runs the same system, it's relevant to look at what the Niners did in this regard last year:</p><p></p><p><strong>11 Personnel (3 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">30%</li> </ul><p><strong>12/21 Personnel (2 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">54%</li> </ul><p><strong>22/13 Personnel (1 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15%</li> </ul><p>So SF ran 3+ wide receiver sets less frequently than all but on team in the NFL (Minnesota).</p><p></p><p>So what might this mean moving forward? I would expect that we would see the shift away from 11 personnel continue in Green Bay. LaFleur's philosophy, trajectory, and the way they handled the off-season suggest that will be the case.</p><p></p><p>After cutting it down by ~20% last year, let's be conservative and suppose that there's only half that much movement from 2019 to 2020. Here's what that would look like, spreading the resultant snaps even across other formations:</p><p></p><p><strong>11 Personnel (3 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">43% (in 2019, this would have been 29th in 11P frequency, behind MIN, SF, and TEN)</li> </ul><p><strong>12/21 Personnel (2 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">45%</li> </ul><p><strong>22/13 Personnel (1 WR)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12%</li> </ul><p>If I'm right, and this is the way that they're heading, then only 3 wide receivers are going to see significant playing time, and the WR3 would be very much a part time player. It would be a lot of playing time for Sternberger, Lewis, Deguara, and perhaps Tonyan.</p><p></p><p>It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 874200, member: 12283"] I posted a little bit about this elsewhere, but I think it deserves fuller explanation and discussion. The absence of a WR in the draft caught us all completely off guard. One thing I had not considered before the draft is how the Packers intend to play, formationally, on offense. Disclaimer before I share the data and the projection, this is not a defense of the Packers not picking a WR. It's merely an analysis of what happened in terms of offensive formation in LaFleur's first season, and what may happen moving forward. Here was the shift in LaFleur's first season: [B]11 Personnel (3 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]2018: 72% [*]2019: 53% [/LIST] [B]12/21 Personnel (2 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]2018: 21% [*]2019: 40% [/LIST] [B]22/13 Personnel (1 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]2018: 5% [*]2019: 7% [/LIST] So in year one as the HC/OC, the offense went from 3+ wide receivers 72% of the time to 2 or fewer wide receivers 47% of the time. Given that LaFleur is off of the Shanahan tree and runs the same system, it's relevant to look at what the Niners did in this regard last year: [B]11 Personnel (3 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]30% [/LIST] [B]12/21 Personnel (2 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]54% [/LIST] [B]22/13 Personnel (1 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]15% [/LIST] So SF ran 3+ wide receiver sets less frequently than all but on team in the NFL (Minnesota). So what might this mean moving forward? I would expect that we would see the shift away from 11 personnel continue in Green Bay. LaFleur's philosophy, trajectory, and the way they handled the off-season suggest that will be the case. After cutting it down by ~20% last year, let's be conservative and suppose that there's only half that much movement from 2019 to 2020. Here's what that would look like, spreading the resultant snaps even across other formations: [B]11 Personnel (3 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]43% (in 2019, this would have been 29th in 11P frequency, behind MIN, SF, and TEN) [/LIST] [B]12/21 Personnel (2 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]45% [/LIST] [B]22/13 Personnel (1 WR)[/B] [LIST] [*]12% [/LIST] If I'm right, and this is the way that they're heading, then only 3 wide receivers are going to see significant playing time, and the WR3 would be very much a part time player. It would be a lot of playing time for Sternberger, Lewis, Deguara, and perhaps Tonyan. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. [/QUOTE]
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