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Packer Free Agents: What should the Packers do? Track Their Decisions
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 818462"><p>So, you've bumped it a million negotiating with me? Imagine what you might have to do if I were his agent. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p>Seriously, $2.5 mil doesn't buy much in the way of even a 50% snap rotational veteran. It comes down to the medicals: Is he healthy now and how much are you willing to gamble he'll stay that way? If his current medicals are clean somebody would gamble more than $2.5 mil per year with little in the way of guarantees betting he'll stay that way with that lack of guarantees being an out if he doesn't. If the medicals are not clean, then you don't want him even under a renegotiation.</p><p></p><p>There's no easy answer to a bad contract with a large sunk cost.</p><p></p><p>If you cut him before the roster bonus is due, the cap savings is $3.3 mil. That savings doesn't buy much.</p><p></p><p>If you keep him past the roster bonus due date, a few days into free agency and before the draft, you've now spent an additional $5.4 mil in cap with that bonus. Under that scenario, the practical way to look at his 2019 cost-to-keep is $9.2 mil vs. savings-if-cut, i.e., the $3.3 mil in foregone cap savings plus the $5.4 mil in cap cost with that roster bonus if you keep him plus the $400,000 workout bonus. I don't have his medical file and I'm not a doctor, but that does not appear auspicious regardless.</p><p></p><p>Assuming the current medicals are clean, a rengotiation that might make sense would be to leave the contract in place except that Perry will forego the 2019 roster bonus. If he then makes it to the opening day roster he'll earn his $5.2 mil in base salary + $400,000 in workout bonus compared to cutting him early to capture that scant $3.3 mil in cap savings. Under this scenario, however, he could be cut right up to opening day to capture that savings if he can't stay healthy through preseason. In this case, Perry has to bet on his own health up to opening day. If he won't do that, why would I?</p><p></p><p>I'll say this much: I'd be surprised and sorely disappointed if both Perry and Mathews are on this roster come opening day with compounded injury and age risks. It's the kind of thing you'd do in a "win now" gamble given the scant Perry savings and what we'd assume would be a moderate Matthews re-up, using cap and draft capital elsewhere. I would consider that to be throwing good money after bad, a case of haste makes waste.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 818462"] So, you've bumped it a million negotiating with me? Imagine what you might have to do if I were his agent. ;) Seriously, $2.5 mil doesn't buy much in the way of even a 50% snap rotational veteran. It comes down to the medicals: Is he healthy now and how much are you willing to gamble he'll stay that way? If his current medicals are clean somebody would gamble more than $2.5 mil per year with little in the way of guarantees betting he'll stay that way with that lack of guarantees being an out if he doesn't. If the medicals are not clean, then you don't want him even under a renegotiation. There's no easy answer to a bad contract with a large sunk cost. If you cut him before the roster bonus is due, the cap savings is $3.3 mil. That savings doesn't buy much. If you keep him past the roster bonus due date, a few days into free agency and before the draft, you've now spent an additional $5.4 mil in cap with that bonus. Under that scenario, the practical way to look at his 2019 cost-to-keep is $9.2 mil vs. savings-if-cut, i.e., the $3.3 mil in foregone cap savings plus the $5.4 mil in cap cost with that roster bonus if you keep him plus the $400,000 workout bonus. I don't have his medical file and I'm not a doctor, but that does not appear auspicious regardless. Assuming the current medicals are clean, a rengotiation that might make sense would be to leave the contract in place except that Perry will forego the 2019 roster bonus. If he then makes it to the opening day roster he'll earn his $5.2 mil in base salary + $400,000 in workout bonus compared to cutting him early to capture that scant $3.3 mil in cap savings. Under this scenario, however, he could be cut right up to opening day to capture that savings if he can't stay healthy through preseason. In this case, Perry has to bet on his own health up to opening day. If he won't do that, why would I? I'll say this much: I'd be surprised and sorely disappointed if both Perry and Mathews are on this roster come opening day with compounded injury and age risks. It's the kind of thing you'd do in a "win now" gamble given the scant Perry savings and what we'd assume would be a moderate Matthews re-up, using cap and draft capital elsewhere. I would consider that to be throwing good money after bad, a case of haste makes waste. [/QUOTE]
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