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Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Game 16 -- Vikings rematch [pregame and post game thread]
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<blockquote data-quote="red4tribe" data-source="post: 939678" data-attributes="member: 1966"><p>I'm glad that we're 12-3, but this team reminds me a bit too much of the 2019 team which won ugly and not convincingly. Sure, I'd rather win ugly than lose, but how you win does matter. There are exceptions, but teams that limp through the regular season with a lot of close wins usually don't win super bowls. Our close wins and relatively small point differential are the reasons why some of the advanced metrics don't think that we're as good as our record. </p><p></p><p>Let's take a closer look at point differential. Although point differential isn't everything, it matters. In the last ten years (since 2011) there have been 25 teams that finished with a record of 13-3 or better. As of right now, the 2021 Packers (+59 PD) would have the worst point differential of any of those teams. Maybe we'll blow out the Vikings and Lions and it'll improve, but that's where we are now. The second worst is actually our 2019 square at +63. The next worst was the 2017 Steelers who were at +98, significantly better than ours. So even if you discounted week 1 of this season we would have the second-worst point differential of all 25 teams. The average PD of those 25 teams is 156, so 100 points better than we are now. </p><p></p><p>Right now, we're 11th in point differential, and only three teams in the last 20 years have won the Super Bowl when outside the top ten (2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens). We'll see what happens. This team is very talented and I'm certainly not counting them out. But I was feeling a lot more optimistic a few weeks ago about our chances than I am now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="red4tribe, post: 939678, member: 1966"] I'm glad that we're 12-3, but this team reminds me a bit too much of the 2019 team which won ugly and not convincingly. Sure, I'd rather win ugly than lose, but how you win does matter. There are exceptions, but teams that limp through the regular season with a lot of close wins usually don't win super bowls. Our close wins and relatively small point differential are the reasons why some of the advanced metrics don't think that we're as good as our record. Let's take a closer look at point differential. Although point differential isn't everything, it matters. In the last ten years (since 2011) there have been 25 teams that finished with a record of 13-3 or better. As of right now, the 2021 Packers (+59 PD) would have the worst point differential of any of those teams. Maybe we'll blow out the Vikings and Lions and it'll improve, but that's where we are now. The second worst is actually our 2019 square at +63. The next worst was the 2017 Steelers who were at +98, significantly better than ours. So even if you discounted week 1 of this season we would have the second-worst point differential of all 25 teams. The average PD of those 25 teams is 156, so 100 points better than we are now. Right now, we're 11th in point differential, and only three teams in the last 20 years have won the Super Bowl when outside the top ten (2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens). We'll see what happens. This team is very talented and I'm certainly not counting them out. But I was feeling a lot more optimistic a few weeks ago about our chances than I am now. [/QUOTE]
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