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<blockquote data-quote="ivo610" data-source="post: 292986" data-attributes="member: 2128"><p>here is what they said about Rodgers:</p><p></p><p>"Rodgers won the fantasy football scoring title, an award that no one has won in consecutive seasons since Priest Holmes in 2002 and 2003. Thats not meaningful enough to induce regression, but what is worth noting is Rodgers' ridiculous splits by down: He had -3.7%DVOA on first down, a 9.8% DVOA on second down, and a totally out of this world 79.4% DVOA on third down. Rodgers completed passes on 59.4 percent of his dropbacks on third down, a figure trailing only Mssrs. Manning and Brees, while he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per dropback; Philip Rivers was second at 8.3 yards, and no one else was above eight. We discussed the disappearance of the third down effect for offenses earlier in the book, but this sort of dramatic outlier is just unsustainable in any way. Rodgers also faced the easiest schedule of any starting quarterback in the league, with a difference of 5.7 percentage points between his VOA and DVOA. Even with a decline, Rodgers is very clearly among the leagues best quarterbacks, which makes the knocks on him back in 2005 even weirder. Scouts had doubts about his size and his ability to throw when scrambling, and worried that a good percentage of his passing yards came as yards after the catch. As you can see above (stats from 07 to 09, with a prediction for 10), Rodgers was perfectly fine in 2008 while his receivers produced below avg YAC, and his biggest problem as a professional - taking sacks and diagnosing the oncoming pass rush- went unmentioned. One of the reasons why players get overdrafted based on factors like arm strength and 40 time is because they are as plain as day to see. Projecting how a guy sees a pass rush or his vision to identify and pick a hole, well, those skills are a lot more subtle, even though they're extremely valuable.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ivo610, post: 292986, member: 2128"] here is what they said about Rodgers: "Rodgers won the fantasy football scoring title, an award that no one has won in consecutive seasons since Priest Holmes in 2002 and 2003. Thats not meaningful enough to induce regression, but what is worth noting is Rodgers' ridiculous splits by down: He had -3.7%DVOA on first down, a 9.8% DVOA on second down, and a totally out of this world 79.4% DVOA on third down. Rodgers completed passes on 59.4 percent of his dropbacks on third down, a figure trailing only Mssrs. Manning and Brees, while he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per dropback; Philip Rivers was second at 8.3 yards, and no one else was above eight. We discussed the disappearance of the third down effect for offenses earlier in the book, but this sort of dramatic outlier is just unsustainable in any way. Rodgers also faced the easiest schedule of any starting quarterback in the league, with a difference of 5.7 percentage points between his VOA and DVOA. Even with a decline, Rodgers is very clearly among the leagues best quarterbacks, which makes the knocks on him back in 2005 even weirder. Scouts had doubts about his size and his ability to throw when scrambling, and worried that a good percentage of his passing yards came as yards after the catch. As you can see above (stats from 07 to 09, with a prediction for 10), Rodgers was perfectly fine in 2008 while his receivers produced below avg YAC, and his biggest problem as a professional - taking sacks and diagnosing the oncoming pass rush- went unmentioned. One of the reasons why players get overdrafted based on factors like arm strength and 40 time is because they are as plain as day to see. Projecting how a guy sees a pass rush or his vision to identify and pick a hole, well, those skills are a lot more subtle, even though they're extremely valuable. [/QUOTE]
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