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Challenging conventional wisdom (Cowboys/Giants finish)
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<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 623171" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>I'm curious as to why I shouldn't use those percentages to support my argument. If we agree that the percentages are at least close, it's mathematically indisputable that going for it on 4th would have been a better call. We're not talking 88 to 85% or so, something within the margin of error. More like 90 to 70, not even close. </p><p></p><p>I don't agree at all that I'd rather have a team need to go 70 yards to win than 70 to tie. If you make them go 70 to tie, you still have both a chance to win with a missed FG, or win in OT. Even if they drive into FG range, you still have the odds on your side. If they drive 70 to win, you've lost. Seems like a clear cut choice to me.</p><p></p><p>While it may be true that it's tougher to punch it in around the end zone than get it around the 30, the opposite is true at the other end of the field -- Dallas would have had a much harder time driving it out from their own 1 than the 28, and would have risked a safety and immediate loss with any loss of yards or penalty in the end zone. </p><p></p><p>I would have run it on 3rd, then again on 4th, and if they had failed Dallas would have been left with about 50 seconds from their own 1, a much more difficult task than they actually had.</p><p></p><p>Is it overanalysis? Perhaps. But I feel coaches in the near future who choose to 'overanalyze' will be the ones that pull out that close win, the ones who stand by their decision and take the heat either way.</p><p></p><p>By the way, right or wrong decision by Bellichick aside on the 4th and 2 (debatable both ways), I doubt he really cares about what anyone said or thought about it, and it certainly never put his job in danger. And when anyone is talking about the best minds in football, his is still right near the top - that play changed nothing in that regard.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 623171, member: 7277"] I'm curious as to why I shouldn't use those percentages to support my argument. If we agree that the percentages are at least close, it's mathematically indisputable that going for it on 4th would have been a better call. We're not talking 88 to 85% or so, something within the margin of error. More like 90 to 70, not even close. I don't agree at all that I'd rather have a team need to go 70 yards to win than 70 to tie. If you make them go 70 to tie, you still have both a chance to win with a missed FG, or win in OT. Even if they drive into FG range, you still have the odds on your side. If they drive 70 to win, you've lost. Seems like a clear cut choice to me. While it may be true that it's tougher to punch it in around the end zone than get it around the 30, the opposite is true at the other end of the field -- Dallas would have had a much harder time driving it out from their own 1 than the 28, and would have risked a safety and immediate loss with any loss of yards or penalty in the end zone. I would have run it on 3rd, then again on 4th, and if they had failed Dallas would have been left with about 50 seconds from their own 1, a much more difficult task than they actually had. Is it overanalysis? Perhaps. But I feel coaches in the near future who choose to 'overanalyze' will be the ones that pull out that close win, the ones who stand by their decision and take the heat either way. By the way, right or wrong decision by Bellichick aside on the 4th and 2 (debatable both ways), I doubt he really cares about what anyone said or thought about it, and it certainly never put his job in danger. And when anyone is talking about the best minds in football, his is still right near the top - that play changed nothing in that regard. [/QUOTE]
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