Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 623005" data-attributes="member: 7277">I'll assign some (I think fair) odd values to assess chances of a certain event happening when a choice is made.  Obviously, very rough and arbitrary estimates.Converting 4th and goal from the 1:  50%Winning the game if you convert 4th and goal:  100%Making chip shot FG/XP:  100%Dallas driving 70 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30:  30%Dallas driving 99 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30:  10%Bailey making FG of 40+:  80%Giants win in OT:  50%At these estimates, the Giants have about a 90% chance of winning the game if they decide to go for it on 4th down.  In 100 scenarios, they will immediately win 50 by converting.  In 5 of the remaining 50, they will lose in regulation.  Of the remaining 45, they will successfully stop about 32 of these.  13 will come down to a FG, and Bailey will covert 11 of these, so 11 will go to overtime, and the Cowboys will win 5-6 in addition to the 5 they already won in regulation by going 99 yards, giving the Giants about an 89.5% chance of winning if they decide to go for the 4th down.By kicking the FG, it's simple, they have a 30% chance of losing the game.  Congratulations Giants, you reduced your chances of winning from 90% to 70% by MAKING a field goal!</blockquote>

Total: 127 (members: 3, guests: 124)