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Bobby Tonyan
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 884307"><p>Does he though?</p><p></p><p>17 catches for a 169 yds. over 5 games projects to 54 catches for 541 yds.</p><p></p><p>His 61% catch rate with 9.9 yds. per catch is a pretty bad combination, actually worse than in Green Bay. If he's running shorter routes resulting in lower yards per catch in the Chicago offense his catch rate should go up, but it hasn't. His 55 yards after catch is worse than in Green Bay as a percentage of yards receiving and we didn't see him breaking many tackles then.</p><p></p><p>Anecdotally, there was a throw to Graham in the second half of the Tampa game on an intermediate in route. As Aikman pointed out, he didn't come back to the ball and it was broken up. The route break wasn't all that crisp in the first place as he angled a bit upfield and just waited for the ball with the defender easily cutting in front of him. As strange as it may seem for a guy who was once considered an elite TE, I never saw him as a good route runner in Green Bay and maybe he never was. As elite athleticism decays and speed at the ILB position across the league has increased, these things can show up.</p><p></p><p>That leaves the TDs, 4 in 5 games for Graham this season. Those TDs have been for 2, 2, 3 and 12 yards. Two were against Atlanta, which might not be just a coincidence with Tonyan going off. Evidently Chicago has found some plays for him down by the goal line. Green Bay had several other options with a high red zone success rate last season.</p><p></p><p>I wouldn't be buying Graham for TD fantasy points any more than I would buy Tonyan based on TDs alone. You only get to play Atlanta once. You can't project those TD frequencies over a full season. The plays are too infrequent to establish some enduring pattern and the projected numbers are simply implausible regardless especially if defenses figure they better account for these guys more often, in general or situationally. Tonyan is the better bet with a much better QB, a higher scoring offense, while being light on WRs for the duration barring an acquisition. He's also the better athlete at this stage.</p><p></p><p>I started warming up to Tonyan in the latter part of last season when he started showing some good blocking. That gets him on the field more than Sternberger who is not a good blocker, at least not yet. More play, more opportunities, more money game route running experience, more money game QB chemistry, good speed and hands--it gradually has added up to a good football player in context.</p><p></p><p>But I digress. Stories of Graham's renaissance are greatly exaggerated.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 884307"] Does he though? 17 catches for a 169 yds. over 5 games projects to 54 catches for 541 yds. His 61% catch rate with 9.9 yds. per catch is a pretty bad combination, actually worse than in Green Bay. If he's running shorter routes resulting in lower yards per catch in the Chicago offense his catch rate should go up, but it hasn't. His 55 yards after catch is worse than in Green Bay as a percentage of yards receiving and we didn't see him breaking many tackles then. Anecdotally, there was a throw to Graham in the second half of the Tampa game on an intermediate in route. As Aikman pointed out, he didn't come back to the ball and it was broken up. The route break wasn't all that crisp in the first place as he angled a bit upfield and just waited for the ball with the defender easily cutting in front of him. As strange as it may seem for a guy who was once considered an elite TE, I never saw him as a good route runner in Green Bay and maybe he never was. As elite athleticism decays and speed at the ILB position across the league has increased, these things can show up. That leaves the TDs, 4 in 5 games for Graham this season. Those TDs have been for 2, 2, 3 and 12 yards. Two were against Atlanta, which might not be just a coincidence with Tonyan going off. Evidently Chicago has found some plays for him down by the goal line. Green Bay had several other options with a high red zone success rate last season. I wouldn't be buying Graham for TD fantasy points any more than I would buy Tonyan based on TDs alone. You only get to play Atlanta once. You can't project those TD frequencies over a full season. The plays are too infrequent to establish some enduring pattern and the projected numbers are simply implausible regardless especially if defenses figure they better account for these guys more often, in general or situationally. Tonyan is the better bet with a much better QB, a higher scoring offense, while being light on WRs for the duration barring an acquisition. He's also the better athlete at this stage. I started warming up to Tonyan in the latter part of last season when he started showing some good blocking. That gets him on the field more than Sternberger who is not a good blocker, at least not yet. More play, more opportunities, more money game route running experience, more money game QB chemistry, good speed and hands--it gradually has added up to a good football player in context. But I digress. Stories of Graham's renaissance are greatly exaggerated. [/QUOTE]
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