Amish taking control of GM duties

[AmishMafia]

The Amish is making inroads at 1265 Lambeau Ave. Let's just say, if the Board of Directors wants to continue to have access to looming supplies at cost, they are going to play ball here.

Gone
Starks – We have Lacey, Harris and Franklin.
James Jones – We can’t afford what he is worth. We have some good youngsters who can fill this void. Jordy, Cobb, and Boykin form a nice trio. Beyond that, we have some kids with potential. This is another good draft year for WRs in the 3rd and 4th round.
Kuhn – Lacy can do what you do. Just much faster.
Newhouse – It would be fun if the Packers resigned him, just to hear the responses from some posters, but Marshall’s time has come.
MD Jennings – not impressed and he will not be missed.
Pickett - Not sure we can squeeze 2 more years out of him, but he is still a decent player. The TT way is to let a player go a year early and avoid keeping him a year to long.
C.J. Wilson I like CJ. Solid player and still seems to be improving but we can’t keep everybody
Raji - If $8M didn’t interest him, what I would offer him would be an insult. There is a chance he comes back for a $7M/1 year deal if he finds the pasture isn’t as green as he thought. I would move him back to NT, always thought that suited him a little better. Complaining that he doesn’t get sacks is true, but he doesn’t kick many Field Goals either. Its not what he is out there to do. What he is out there for is to take up blockers. Which, he hasn’t really done that well at either.


Resigned
Shields 4yrs/$29M I let him test the FA waters and then bring him back. He doesn’t get what he expects from other teams based mostly on a huge GB Packer tattoo on his neck. 4 years give him one more big payday. (7.5)
Finley - 3yrs/$18M With the emergence of Quarless we have a really nice TE Tandem. If the Fin can play a whole season like he started, we are in for the greatest offensive output in Packer (and maybe all of the NFL) history. (6)
Quarless – 3 yrs/$8M Emerging player who is still going to get better.(2.6)
Johnny Jolly 4yr2/$12M With no guarantees. If he comes back from injury – he is our defensive leader. We should get a good deal because of injury and the whole drug/mobster/thug/prison thing. IF he doesn’t comes back from injury he retires – no payout. (3)
EDS - 4yrs/$14M Try and keep some continuity on that OLine (3.5)
Neal 2yrs/$2.5M Just don’t think there will be a big push to get him by other teams, maybe we get him back for around $1M (1.25)
Lattimore 2 yr/$1.5M He shows some ability and leadership. (.75)
Banjo 1 year minimum. Keep him to see what he has and we have the UFA advantage
Flynn – 1yr/$1M (1)


That’s $25M in cap spending.

CAP SPACE
Rework Tramon Williams 4 years $26M
Savings: $2M per year

Cut Bush: the run is done – he takes the Packer semi-retirement route (plays for Minnesota)
Savings: $1.7M


Our cap space is projected $28M – that only gives us a $7M cushion.

Free agents
Maybe, but probably not.

Draft

Here we go: TT maintains BPA. When BPA doesn’t match need, he trades down. If there are a bunch of players at BPA tier, he will trade down. If only a few BPAs are left on a talent tier and one is a need position, he will trade up.

I think a trade up is as likely as a trade down. I would only trade up to hit BPA at a position of need. I don’t think HAHA is worth the trade up, and I see a bunch of safeties who should be in the BPA tier late in the 2nd and throughout the 3rd. I will hope to get one then. I think this is one of the strongest drafts we have seen in some time. There are a bunch of QBs available so perhaps a blue chipper slips into striking distance. I would love to get OT Matthews, OLB Barr, or DE Clowney if one were to be available 11th. Doubt it, but there may be as many as 5 QBs going in the top 10. Throw in WR xx, and a surprise or 2 and maybe one of these is there. Trade up would involve 1st, 2nd, and a 5th. I am going to say this doesn’t happen or we don’t find a willing trade partner.

Plan B – trade down.

1 Trade for 2nd and 3rd.
2a Ryan Shazier Ohio State ILB: On the small side, but very athletic. Should be able to help with pass coverage more than what we are getting from Hawk and Jones. Is a good tone setter and should be a leader on defense. Also in the running: Haggeman 5T/Kyle Von Noy OLB/Trent Murphy OLB/ Kony Ealy, DE: There should be a good player sitting here for us. We pick up a 3rd rounder and get another good player/contributor.

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2b Deone Buchannon S Washington State – good instincts, good speed, aggressive tackler, and good hands. Just not great at anything – should be a solid/dependable player.

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3a Donte Moncrief WR – depends on his 40 time. He could go early in the 2nd or about here.

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3b [Comp Pick for Jennings (I think we are on the borderline of 3rd or 4th and its about time it was the higher of the 2)] - Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Tall and quick. Has all the tools

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3c Zack Kerr NT – 6’1” 322. He is quick and disruptive. He plays all out all the time. Why isn’t he rated higher? Maybe because he is from Delaware. Love this picture of him. A) He is using speed to get past guy on the left B) He is using strength to push #78 out of the way C) The intense look of determination on his face

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4th Josh Mauro DE Stanford – 6’6” 280#. Definitely has the frame to add another 20 lbs and hopefully not lose the quickness. Maybe a season or two away to build some lower strength. Only recently emerged as a player last season – makes me think he is on the upswing of what he can be. Give him some time, because he is still physically developing and may soon have the tools to be a good DE.

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5 Justin Britt OT Developmental player, big with quick feet.

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6a Ronald Powell OLB BIG question marks for Powell. Was the #1 in Rivals in 2010, but two blown knees later he underwhelmed. And he is just what we need, another talented but injury prone defensive player. or Michael Campanaro WR

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6b [Comp] Marcel Jensen TE Fresno State. Big fella – used as more of a blocker sort, but he is fairly quick and is a load to bring down.

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7 Darwin Cook S WV – Tenacious player, but on the small side. Robbed a convenience store of a bag of Doritos and a Pepsi early in his college career. I hope that bag of chips was extremely delicious because ultimately it cost him $10,000s in draft position! Hopefully, he has become a little smarter and more mature.

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Roster
QB Rodgers, Flynn, Tolzien
RB Lacy, Harris, Franklin
FB none
WR Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, (Moncrief), Harper
TE Finley, Quarless, Jake Stoneburner, (Jensen)
LT Bakhtiari, Sherrod, (Britt)
LG Sitton, Trettor
C EDS, TJ Lang
RG TJ Lang, Taylor
RT Bulaga, Barclay, Britt
(29)

DE Jolly, Mike Daniels, Worthy, (Mauro)
NT Boyd, (Kerr)
DE Datone Jones, (Ealy)
LOLB Perry, (Powell), Palmer
LILB AJ Hawk, Lattimore,
RILB (Shazier), Brad Jones
ROLB CM3, Mulumba
CB Shields, Tramon, Hayward, House, (Jean-Baptiste)
S Burnett, Hyde, (Buchannon), Richardson, Banjo, (cook)


(28)

3 ST

60 (Too many but we will likely lose 3 to IR by season start)[/img]

 

[ExpatPacker]

You're hired Amish. I'd love to have Shazier and Bucannon followed by Moncrief, Baptiste and Kerr. In round 4 I'd prefer Fiedorwicz at TE, especially if Finley isn't coming back. Although if we resign both TWilliams and Shields, I'm not sure where Baptiste would fit in. His arrow is pointing up for sure, but with Heyward, Williams and Shields as your top 3 corners, he'd be a nickel CB unless someone gets hurt.

Kerr is a sleeper in the draft and I don't think you need to use a 3rd round pick if you want him.

Your projection all depends on whether Finley and Jolly return to full health, which is a big "if". If one of them doesn't, and Finley is my biggest question mark, then we may have to spend one of our early picks on a TE. Seferis-Jenkins will probably be there in the top half the of 2nd round, or Fiedorwicz in the late 3rd - middle 4th round.

Also, not resigning Starks would be a shame. He did an excellent job spelling Lacy, and the problem with keeping Harris and Franklin over Starks is that those two are both small backs. Can DuJuan take over for Starks as the #2 back? Possibly, but I'm not sure.

But the big question is, who is gonna trade up and give their #2 and #3 picks for the Packers' 1st rounder? I think they'll have a hard time finding a team that'd bite.

 

[AmishMafia]

You're hired Amish. I'd love to have Shazier and Bucannon followed by Moncrief, Baptiste and Kerr. In round 4 I'd prefer Fiedorwicz at TE, especially if Finley isn't coming back. Although if we resign both TWilliams and Shields, I'm not sure where Baptiste would fit in. His arrow is pointing up for sure, but with Heyward, Williams and Shields as your top 3 corners, he'd be a nickel CB unless someone gets hurt.

Kerr is a sleeper in the draft and I don't think you need to use a 3rd round pick if you want him.

Your projection all depends on whether Finley and Jolly return to full health, which is a big "if". If one of them doesn't, and Finley is my biggest question mark, then we may have to spend one of our early picks on a TE. Seferis-Jenkins will probably be there in the top half the of 2nd round, or Fiedorwicz in the late 3rd - middle 4th round.

Also, not resigning Starks would be a shame. He did an excellent job spelling Lacy, and the problem with keeping Harris and Franklin over Starks is that those two are both small backs. Can DuJuan take over for Starks as the #2 back? Possibly, but I'm not sure.

But the big question is, who is gonna trade up and give their #2 and #3 picks for the Packers' 1st rounder? I think they'll have a hard time finding a team that'd bite.

You may be right. My scenario for the trade is perhaps Oakland, Jags, or Browns. If they go with Clowney with their first - which I think is a good idea, they may want back into the first to grab Carr or another QB. They would be moving up 15 picks or so - which I think should be worth a 3rd.

I move Hyde to Safety. That is kind of a flex position - depending on how Buchannon and Burnett are looking. I think Hyde would be excellent as a safety, but he is excellent as a CB as well. Anyhow, you always have to be stocking the shelves, especially at CB where you can have 4 or more on the field in some situations.

Kerr is high - I actually had him in the 5th on my first draft. I just really like the guy and would not be surprised if he climbed the draft rankings come May. You never know - call it the 'Nick Collins effect'.

Thanks for the job offer. Please tell me you are a share holder. A majority share holder!

 

[HyponGrey]

Cook and Mauro are probably my favorite picks in this thing. Great selections in the late rounds!

 

[ExpatPacker]

If Finley doesn't return, I think that the Packers should take a hard look at CJ Fiedorwicz from Iowa. He's stood out at the Senior Bowl, and he and Quarless would make nice tandem. Might have to take him rather than Kerr in the 3rd or Mauro in the 4th.

 

[rodell330]

Like the late round picks as well and would be happy to have Shazier and Bucannon who would both start from day 1. Only thing i would change is the pick in the 3rd if we go wr. I'd take Jared Abrederris, he's a smaller Jordy Nelson (we all love Jordy Nelson) at 6'2 190 and solid speed. He's a guy that has packer written all over him. We could use another bigger wr with his skillset.

 

[Shawnsta3]

Great job Amish. I'd be very happy if this is the way our off-season turned out, especially in the draft.

On the other hand, I do think the contracts for both TE's are a little big considering one's career is in jeopardy and the other faded down the stretch.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Resigned
Shields 4yrs/$29M I let him test the FA waters and then bring him back. He doesn’t get what he expects from other teams based mostly on a huge GB Packer tattoo on his neck. 4 years give him one more big payday. (7.5)
Finley - 3yrs/$18M With the emergence of Quarless we have a really nice TE Tandem. If the Fin can play a whole season like he started, we are in for the greatest offensive output in Packer (and maybe all of the NFL) history. (6)
Quarless – 3 yrs/$8M Emerging player who is still going to get better.(2.6)
Johnny Jolly 4yr2/$12M With no guarantees. If he comes back from injury – he is our defensive leader. We should get a good deal because of injury and the whole drug/mobster/thug/prison thing. IF he doesn’t comes back from injury he retires – no payout. (3)
EDS - 4yrs/$14M Try and keep some continuity on that OLine (3.5)
Neal 2yrs/$2.5M Just don’t think there will be a big push to get him by other teams, maybe we get him back for around $1M (1.25)
Lattimore 2 yr/$1.5M He shows some ability and leadership. (.75)
Banjo 1 year minimum. Keep him to see what he has and we have the UFA advantage
Flynn – 1yr/$1M (1)


That’s $25M in cap spending.

CAP SPACE
Rework Tramon Williams 4 years $26M
Savings: $2M per year

Cut Bush: the run is done – he takes the Packer semi-retirement route (plays for Minnesota)
Savings: $1.7M

Our cap space is projected $28M – that only gives us a $7M cushion.

I would like them to re-sign James Jones and in addition John Kuhn and Ryan Pickett to near veteran minimum contracts. I'm totally sure Jermichael Finley will never play another down for the Packers.

While I think Jolly and EDS shouldn't be signed for the kind of money you suggested I'm convinced Shields is going to ask for more.

Finally, the salary cap doesn't represent average salary per year, as you calculated. As NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed you have to include a signing bonus into a contract which will be prorated over the length of the contract. Normally the base salary increases over the length of the contract (that's because of the actual cash flow), therefore resulting in lower cap numbers at the start and higher numbers at the end of it.

I don't think there's any chance Tramon gets an extension close to what you suggested. Even if we restructure his contract his prorated signing bonus of the contract he signed in 2011 will count $2 million against the cap. No matter how you structure a 4-year, $26 million extension for him either the cap hit for the 2014 would be way too high or we wouldn't be able to cut him over the next four years.

 

[AmishMafia]

I would like them to re-sign James Jones and in addition John Kuhn and Ryan Pickett to near veteran minimum contracts. I'm totally sure Jermichael Finley will never play another down for the Packers.

While I think Jolly and EDS shouldn't be signed for the kind of money you suggested I'm convinced Shields is going to ask for more.

Finally, the salary cap doesn't represent average salary per year, as you calculated. As NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed you have to include a signing bonus into a contract which will be prorated over the length of the contract. Normally the base salary increases over the length of the contract (that's because of the actual cash flow), therefore resulting in lower cap numbers at the start and higher numbers at the end of it.

I don't think there's any chance Tramon gets an extension close to what you suggested. Even if we restructure his contract his prorated signing bonus of the contract he signed in 2011 will count $2 million against the cap. No matter how you structure a 4-year, $26 million extension for him either the cap hit for the 2014 would be way too high or we wouldn't be able to cut him over the next four years.

I tried to be realistic, but every season I am shocked by how much some players sign for - either high or low. If I made an edit to this, it would be to keep Pickett. Sign him for a single season. I understand what you are saying for the proration of the signing bonus, but I didn't want to go into detail too much. I don't like the mock that say, "sign all our FAs; sign Byrd, Jimmy Graham, Hardy, and Orakpo." so I wanted to try and be realistic.

I hope you are wrong about Finley - he has teased us with greatness for too long.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't like the mock that say, "sign all our FAs; sign Byrd, Jimmy Graham, Hardy, and Orakpo." so I wanted to try and be realistic.

I think you did a pretty good job on being realistic, would be shocked though if EDS and Jolly would cost that much money. IMO there's a realistic chance the Packers franchise tag Shields (slightly over $11 million) and work out a long-term contract before the regular season. Everyone that thinks the Packers will and should sign one of the top free agents has no clue about how TT is operating or how a team should be managed.

I hope you are wrong about Finley - he has teased us with greatness for too long.

Would love to see Finley back in green and gold, but with that injury I think his NFL career is over.

 

[Kitten]

Let the fire TT and hire Amish threads commence! Well done, Amish. Your cuts run deep with Starks (whimpers) but I have to be honest and say they make sense. The only player you re-signed that I would have issue with is EDS. But otherwise an extremely well thought out, logical plan of action. As for drafting the idea of TT trading up would have to be for somebody he really wants. He seldom trades up, I believe unless I'm mistaken the last player he traded up for was Clay Matthews. TT's draft strategy is quite predictable, that's why people were picking their jaws up off the floor when he traded up for Matthews. If you were GM I'm sure your draft strategy would differ from TTs.

 

[TJV]

Since the Matthews’ pick, Thompson traded up to pick Morgan Burnett in 2010 (picked in the 3rd round); he traded up for Jerel Worthy (2nd) , Casey Hayward (2nd), and Terrell Manning (5th) in 2012. In the last draft Thompson traded up for Johnathan Franklin (4th). Maybe Thompson isn’t so predictable?

 

[AmishMafia]

Let the fire TT and hire Amish threads commence! Well done, Amish. Your cuts run deep with Starks (whimpers) but I have to be honest and say they make sense. The only player you re-signed that I would have issue with is EDS. But otherwise an extremely well thought out, logical plan of action. As for drafting the idea of TT trading up would have to be for somebody he really wants. He seldom trades up, I believe unless I'm mistaken the last player he traded up for was Clay Matthews. TT's draft strategy is quite predictable, that's why people were picking their jaws up off the floor when he traded up for Matthews. If you were GM I'm sure your draft strategy would differ from TTs.

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

The Matthews was TT's only 'dramatic' move up. Jack points out a few minor trade ups.

I have my opinions, but I have no illusions here. I have no doubt TT and the whole coaching/scouting staff would look at some of my picks and roll their eyes. I only read what other analysts with only slightly more data than I have say and go with it. But it is fun .

 

[yooperpackfan]

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

The Matthews was TT's only 'dramatic' move up. Jack points out a few minor trade ups.

I have my opinions, but I have no illusions here. I have no doubt TT and the whole coaching/scouting staff would look at some of my picks and roll their eyes. I only read what other analysts with only slightly more data than I have say and go with it. But it is fun .

I'm glad you enjoyed doing it because I enjoyed reading it.
Now if you are more personable than Ted and actually speak in complete sentences you got my vote.