Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Thirteen Below" data-source="post: 1031387" data-attributes="member: 18006">Exactly the way I look at that, too.When you see a 24-year old player, you're generally looking at a guy who's a lot closer to topping out his potential than a 22-year old. An NFL training camp and a season of NFL-level coaching is probably going to squeeze a bit more out of him (especially in his technique), but in terms of pure athletic ability, what you see is probably pretty close to what you're going to get.So if you look at that player and determine that he would benefit from some coaching but does have the basic ability to play effectively at this level, you have a pretty good idea of what you can expect from him. If you like what you see, you take the guy and turn him over to the trainers and the position coaches to polish him up.But to me, that's pretty much the only reason age matters. A drafted NFL player starts his career with a 4-year contract, so at age 24, his first contract takes him up to age 28. If he plays well enough, he then negotiates a second contract, at age 28. Still right smack in the middle of his prime.So OK - sign him to a second contract. The second contract would take him into his early 30s, which is about what you hope for anyway with an offensive lineman. By the end of his second contract, chances are you're just about done with him anyway, but if he turns into a really good player, you can do a team friendly deal that gets another year or two out of him. However, the odds are stacked against him still playing into his early 30s to begin with, no matter how old he is when you draft him. Playing NFL football for several years ages a body faster than just getting a few years older. Only 3 out of 5 players do well enough to sign a second contract at age 26-28, and of those, only about half of them (15%) resign with their original team. 6 out of 7 times, a player who is drafted at age 24 is out of the league at age 28 anyway. 5 years after a draft, an average of no more than 4 or 5 players on any given team's roster are still playing for the team that drafted them (although I think that ratio is higher for the Packers; just didn't break it down).By the time they get to their early 30s, less than  8% of the starters are over age 30 - and most of the non-quarterbacks/kickers who remain will be way past their prime and leaving as free agents anyway because their original team has planned for their replacement and won't want to pay the price for another 2 years. So they move on to someone who's paying bigger bucks, and we get a comp pick the next year.I don't care about 24 years old compared to 22-23 years old for most positions. And the differential between 24 and 22-23 is not necessarily so clear-cut anyway - Puni just turned 24  a month ago. So on draft day, he'll be 24, but someone born just 7 weeks later is still only 23. Is that really something consequential? If the dude adds up as a prospective bona fide NFL starter at age 24, grab him and ride him for 6 or 7 years. The cold, hard reality is that by the time he's too old to play, he'll almost certainly be someone else's problem anyway - unless he's a star, in which case who cares? We hit the jackpot anyway, so we're way ahead of the game.</blockquote>

Verification

Members online

No members online now.

Total: 101 (members: 0, guests: 101)

Latest posts

UDFA Signings 2025
- Latest: OldSchool101
- Today at 12:31 AM
Draft Talk
Final Thoughts on 2025 Draft
- Latest: Thirteen Below
- Yesterday at 11:59 PM
Draft Talk
2025 Draft in Green Bay
- Latest: Thirteen Below
- Yesterday at 11:33 PM
Draft Talk
Bucks 2024-25 Season Thread
- Latest: Voyageur
- Yesterday at 11:24 PM
Milwaukee Bucks Forum
2025 NFL Free Agency
- Latest: OldSchool101
- Yesterday at 11:19 PM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum