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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 901627" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>It's true that passing efficiency is greater than running efficiency in the NFL. However, people take that true piece of analysis and go way, way too far. </p><p></p><p>While "balance" in the NFL in 2021 doesn't have to (and usually shouldn't) mean a 50/50 split, a certain level of "balance" still really matters for offensive success. </p><p></p><p>Take, for example, the top 10 scoring offenses of 2020. Only two of them were in the top ten for pass % (KC, 5th and TB, 10th) and five of them were in the bottom ten (BAL, 32; TEN, 30; NO, 28; IND, 24; LV, 23). The average of the rankings of those top 10 teams was 20th (which translated to a 57/43 split). Every year, these kinds of results throw water on the notion that the key to great offense is to go away from the run, and yet people still advocate for it like it's a proven concept. </p><p></p><p>Furthermore, all of the efficiency stats that analytics guys use to try and argue that teams should just pass, pass pass, are all based on passing results from a league that runs about 43% of the time. If you completely go away from the running game and just throw every down, passing efficiency will plummet (not to mention other ancillary problems). </p><p></p><p>Additionally, running matters a lot more for certain offenses. You can much more readily turn an Andy Reid offense into a 70% pass attack than a Matt LaFleur offense, because of the foundation of the system. If they tried that in Green Bay, it would be an abject disaster.</p><p></p><p>So running offense and RB talent still absolutely matter. The majority of good running back play is found on day 2 of the draft. We can say all of that while still acknowledging that running backs are not as valuable as quarterbacks, pass rushers, corners, tackles...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 901627, member: 12283"] It's true that passing efficiency is greater than running efficiency in the NFL. However, people take that true piece of analysis and go way, way too far. While "balance" in the NFL in 2021 doesn't have to (and usually shouldn't) mean a 50/50 split, a certain level of "balance" still really matters for offensive success. Take, for example, the top 10 scoring offenses of 2020. Only two of them were in the top ten for pass % (KC, 5th and TB, 10th) and five of them were in the bottom ten (BAL, 32; TEN, 30; NO, 28; IND, 24; LV, 23). The average of the rankings of those top 10 teams was 20th (which translated to a 57/43 split). Every year, these kinds of results throw water on the notion that the key to great offense is to go away from the run, and yet people still advocate for it like it's a proven concept. Furthermore, all of the efficiency stats that analytics guys use to try and argue that teams should just pass, pass pass, are all based on passing results from a league that runs about 43% of the time. If you completely go away from the running game and just throw every down, passing efficiency will plummet (not to mention other ancillary problems). Additionally, running matters a lot more for certain offenses. You can much more readily turn an Andy Reid offense into a 70% pass attack than a Matt LaFleur offense, because of the foundation of the system. If they tried that in Green Bay, it would be an abject disaster. So running offense and RB talent still absolutely matter. The majority of good running back play is found on day 2 of the draft. We can say all of that while still acknowledging that running backs are not as valuable as quarterbacks, pass rushers, corners, tackles... [/QUOTE]
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