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Bakhtiari to Jets?
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<blockquote data-quote="mradtke66" data-source="post: 1023908" data-attributes="member: 4199"><p>I bet it won't be as direct as you'd like it to be in some ways and absurdly direct in others.</p><p></p><p>My suspicion has long been, for example, that paying quarterbacks a lot of money or having them chew up a lot of cap isn't a problem. What tends to hurt you is having a good quarterback. It's a correlation vs causation situation.</p><p></p><p>My premise presumes drafting is the most important way to build a team. This can be debated, of course.</p><p></p><p>When you find a great quarterback, you win more games. In the case of a rookie, he will tend to not win much in year 1 or 2 and start to win more in years 3 and 4. Once he demonstrates that greatness, say by winning a playoff game, you're suddenly drafting late. Right now, the Packers are drafting 25th. Had they lost in the wildcard, 19th. Had they missed the playoffs entirely with their same 9-8 record, as early as 14th. Had they lost the Lions in week 17, as early as 12th.</p><p></p><p>You're drafting later. You drafting success just got harder. A quick google say 1-10, you have a 55% chance of getting a Pro Bowler. 21-30 has only a 33% chance. The two Super Bowl teams have only a 25% chance.</p><p></p><p>This later drafting is what hurts teams and makes it harder to sustain success or get over the hump. It just tends to happen the same time that those quarterback start getting the big bucks. And the better they do, the better their teams tend to do. So they draft later AND reward the quarterback with more money.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mradtke66, post: 1023908, member: 4199"] I bet it won't be as direct as you'd like it to be in some ways and absurdly direct in others. My suspicion has long been, for example, that paying quarterbacks a lot of money or having them chew up a lot of cap isn't a problem. What tends to hurt you is having a good quarterback. It's a correlation vs causation situation. My premise presumes drafting is the most important way to build a team. This can be debated, of course. When you find a great quarterback, you win more games. In the case of a rookie, he will tend to not win much in year 1 or 2 and start to win more in years 3 and 4. Once he demonstrates that greatness, say by winning a playoff game, you're suddenly drafting late. Right now, the Packers are drafting 25th. Had they lost in the wildcard, 19th. Had they missed the playoffs entirely with their same 9-8 record, as early as 14th. Had they lost the Lions in week 17, as early as 12th. You're drafting later. You drafting success just got harder. A quick google say 1-10, you have a 55% chance of getting a Pro Bowler. 21-30 has only a 33% chance. The two Super Bowl teams have only a 25% chance. This later drafting is what hurts teams and makes it harder to sustain success or get over the hump. It just tends to happen the same time that those quarterback start getting the big bucks. And the better they do, the better their teams tend to do. So they draft later AND reward the quarterback with more money. [/QUOTE]
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